The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions

Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes

Often as an epidemic spreads, the leading front is irregular, reflecting spatial variation in local transmission rates. We developed a methodology for quantifying spatial variation in rates of disease spread across heterogeneous landscapes. Based on data for epidemic raccoon rabies in Connecticut, we developed a stochastic spatial model of rabies spread through the state's 169 townships. We quantified spatial variation in transmission rates associated with human demography and key habitat features. We found that large rivers act as semipermeable barriers, leading to a 7-fold reduction in the local rates of propagation. By combining the spatial distribution of major rivers with long-distance dispersal we were able to account for the observed irregular pattern of disease spread across the state without recourse to direct assessment of host-pathogen populations.

Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in British livestock remains an ongoing cause for concern, with new cases still arising in previously unaffected areas. Epidemiological analyses have been vital in delivering scientific advice to government on effective control measures. Using disease, culling and census data on all livestock farms in Great Britain, we analysed the risk factors determining the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic and of the impact of control policies on FMD incidence. Here we show that the species mix, animal numbers and the number of distinct land parcels in a farm are central to explaining regional variation in transmission intensity. We use the parameter estimates thus obtained in a dynamical model of disease spread to show that extended culling programmes were essential for controlling the epidemic to the extent achieved, but demonstrate that the epidemic could have been substantially reduced in scale had the most efficient control measures been rigorously applied earlier.

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.

Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.