Recommendations for examining and interpreting funnel plot asymmetry in meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials

Association of a difference in systolic blood pressure between arms with vascular disease and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Differences in systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 10 mm Hg or more or 15 mm Hg or more between arms have been associated with peripheral vascular disease and attributed to subclavian stenosis. We investigated whether an association exists between this difference and central or peripheral vascular disease, and mortality.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane, and Medline In Process databases for studies published before July, 2011, showing differences in SBP between arms, with data for subclavian stenosis, peripheral vascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, cardiovascular disease, or survival. We used random effects meta-analysis to combine estimates of the association between differences in SBP between arms and each outcome.

FINDINGS

We identified 28 eligible studies for review, 20 of which were included in our meta-analyses. In five invasive studies using angiography, mean difference in SBP between arms was 36·9 mm Hg (95% CI 35·4-38·4) for proven subclavian stenosis (>50% occlusion), and a difference of 10 mm Hg or more was strongly associated with subclavian stenosis (risk ratio [RR] 8·8, 95% CI 3·6-21·2). In non-invasive studies, pooled findings showed that a difference of 15 mm Hg or more was associated with peripheral vascular disease (nine cohorts; RR 2·5, 95% CI 1·6-3·8; sensitivity 15%, 9-23; specificity 96%, 94-98); pre-existing cerebrovascular disease (five cohorts; RR 1·6, 1·1-2·4; sensitivity 8%, 2-26; specificity 93%, 86-97); and increased cardiovascular mortality (four cohorts; hazard ratio [HR] 1·7, 95% CI 1·1-2·5) and all-cause mortality (HR 1·6, 1·1-2·3). A difference of 10 mm Hg or higher was associated with peripheral vascular disease (five studies; RR 2·4, 1·5-3·9; sensitivity 32%, 23-41; specificity 91%, 86-94).

INTERPRETATION

A difference in SBP of 10 mm Hg or more, or of 15 mm Hg or more, between arms might help to identify patients who need further vascular assessment. A difference of 15 mm Hg or more could be a useful indicator of risk of vascular disease and death.

FUNDING

Royal College of General Practitioners, South West GP Trust, and Peninsula Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care.

Clinical outcome prediction by microRNAs in human cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

MicroRNA (miR) expression may have prognostic value for many types of cancers. However, the miR literature comprises many small studies. We systematically reviewed and synthesized the evidence.

METHODS

Using MEDLINE (last update December 2010), we identified English language studies that examined associations between miRs and cancer prognosis using tumor specimens for more than 10 patients during classifier development. We included studies that assessed a major clinical outcome (nodal disease, disease progression, response to therapy, metastasis, recurrence, or overall survival) in an agnostic fashion using either polymerase chain reaction or hybridized oligonucleotide microarrays.

RESULTS

Forty-six articles presenting results on 43 studies pertaining to 20 different types of malignancy were eligible for inclusion in this review. The median study size was 65 patients (interquartile range [IQR] = 34-129), the median number of miRs assayed was 328 (IQR = 250-470), and overall survival or recurrence were the most commonly measured outcomes (30 and 19 studies, respectively). External validation was performed in 21 studies, 20 of which reported at least one nominally statistically significant result for a miR classifier. The median hazard ratio for poor outcome in externally validated studies was 2.52 (IQR = 2.26-5.40). For all classifier miRs in studies that evaluated overall survival across diverse malignancies, the miRs most frequently associated with poor outcome after accounting for differences in miR assessment due to platform type were let-7 (decreased expression in patients with cancer) and miR 21 (increased expression).

CONCLUSIONS

MiR classifiers show promising prognostic associations with major cancer outcomes and specific miRs are consistently identified across diverse studies and platforms. These types of classifiers require careful external validation in large groups of cancer patients that have adequate protection from bias. -

Reno-protective effects of renin-angiotensin system blockade in type 2 diabetic patients: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

This meta-analysis aimed to compare the renal outcomes between ACE inhibitor (ACEI)/angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB) and other antihypertensive drugs or placebo in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Publications were identified from Medline and Embase up to July 2011. Only randomised controlled trials comparing ACEI/ARB monotherapy with other active drugs or placebo were eligible. The outcome of end-stage renal disease, doubling of serum creatinine, microvascular complications, microalbuminuria, macroalbuminuria and albuminuria regression were extracted. Risk ratios were pooled using a random-effects model if heterogeneity was present; a fixed-effects model was used in the absence of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Of 673 studies identified, 28 were eligible (n = 13-4,912). In direct meta-analysis, ACEI/ARB had significantly lower risk of serum creatinine doubling (pooled RR = 0.66 [95% CI 0.52, 0.83]), macroalbuminuria (pooled RR = 0.70 [95% CI 0.50, 1.00]) and albuminuria regression (pooled RR 1.16 [95% CI 1.00, 1.39]) than other antihypertensive drugs, mainly calcium channel blockers (CCBs). Although the risks of end-stage renal disease and microalbuminuria were lower in the ACEI/ARB group (pooled RR 0.82 [95% CI 0.64, 1.05] and 0.84 [95% CI 0.61, 1.15], respectively), the differences were not statistically significant. The ACEI/ARB benefit over placebo was significant for all outcomes except microalbuminuria. A network meta-analysis detected significant treatment effects across all outcomes for both active drugs and placebo comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Our review suggests a consistent reno-protective effect of ACEI/ARB over other antihypertensive drugs, mainly CCBs, and placebo in type 2 diabetes. The lack of any differences in BP decrease between ACEI/ARB and active comparators suggest this benefit is not due simply to the antihypertensive effect.

Effectiveness and safety of Saccharomyces boulardii for acute infectious diarrhea

INTRODUCTION

Acute diarrhea continues to be a leading cause of morbidity, hospitalization and mortality worldwide and probiotics have been proposed as a complementary therapy in the treatment of acute diarrhea. Regarding the treatment of acute diarrhea, a few probiotics including Saccharomyces boulardii seem to be promising therapeutic agents.

AREAS COVERED

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis regarding the use of S. boulardii in the treatment of acute infectious diarrhea with relevant studies that searched with the PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Google Scholar, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Library, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews through October 2011. This review describes the effects of S. boulardii on the duration of diarrhea, the risk of diarrhea during the treatment (especially at the third day) and duration of hospitalization in patients with acute infectious diarrhea. This review also focused on the potential effects of S. boulardii for acute infectious diarrhea due to different etiological causes.

EXPERT OPINION

S. boulardii significantly reduced the duration of diarrhea approximately 24 h and that of hospitalization approximately 20 h. S. boulardii shortened the initial phase of watery stools; mean number of stools started to decrease at day 2; moreover, a significant reduction was reported at days 3 and 4. This systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy of S. boulardii in the treatment of acute infectious diarrhea show that there is strong evidence that this probiotic has a clinically significant benefit, whatever the cause, including in developing countries. Therefore, with S. boulardii, the shortened duration of diarrhea and the reduction in hospital stay result in social and economic benefits.

Predicting infectious complications in neutropenic children and young people with cancer (IPD protocol)

BACKGROUND

A common and potentially life-threatening complication of the treatment of childhood cancer is infection, which frequently presents as fever with neutropenia. The standard management of such episodes is the extensive use of intravenous antibiotics, and though it produces excellent survival rates of over 95%, it greatly inconveniences the three-fourths of patients who do not require such aggressive treatment. There have been a number of studies which have aimed to develop risk prediction models to stratify treatment. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis in therapeutic studies has been developed to improve the precision and reliability of answers to questions of treatment effect and recently have been suggested to be used to answer questions regarding prognosis and diagnosis to gain greater power from the frequently small individual studies.

DESIGN

In the IPD protocol, we will collect and synthesise IPD from multiple studies and examine the outcomes of episodes of febrile neutropenia as a consequence of their treatment for malignant disease. We will develop and evaluate a risk stratification model using hierarchical regression models to stratify patients by their risk of experiencing adverse outcomes during an episode. We will also explore specific practical and methodological issues regarding adaptation of established techniques of IPD meta-analysis of interventions for use in synthesising evidence derived from IPD from multiple studies for use in predictive modelling contexts.

DISCUSSION

Our aim in using this model is to define a group of individuals at low risk for febrile neutropenia who might be treated with reduced intensity or duration of antibiotic therapy and so reduce the inconvenience and cost of these episodes, as well as to define a group of patients at very high risk of complications who could be subject to more intensive therapies. The project will also help develop methods of IPD predictive modelling for use in future studies of risk prediction.

Moderate to severe, but not mild, maternal anemia is associated with increased risk of small-for-gestational-age outcomes

Anemia is highly prevalent globally, estimated at 40-50% in women of reproductive age. Prior studies have produced inconclusive evidence as to the association between maternal anemia and intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR). We conducted a systematic review of the literature containing associations between maternal anemia and small for gestational age (SGA) outcomes (as a proxy for IUGR). A meta-analysis was performed to pool associations, categorized by the hemoglobin cutoffs presented by the authors. We identified 12 studies reporting associations between maternal anemia and SGA. For the meta-analysis, there were 7 associations with a hemoglobin cutoff <110 g/L, 7 with a cutoff <100 g/L, and 5 with a cutoff <90 or <80 g/L. Although the <110- and <100-g/L categories showed no significant relationship with SGA, the <90- or <80-g/L category was associated with a 53% increase in risk of the newborn being SGA [pooled OR = 1.53 (95% CI: 1.24-1.87); P < 0.001]. Moderate to severe, but not mild, maternal anemia appears to have an association with SGA outcomes, but the findings must be viewed with caution due to the great heterogeneity of the studies. Further examination should be conducted using datasets with better standardized definitions and measurements of exposure and outcome.

Early mortality in adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC): a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

We systematically reviewed observational studies of early mortality post-antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) in Asia, Africa, and Central and South America, as defined by the World Bank, to summarize what is known.

Methods and Findings

Studies published in English between January 1996 and December 2010 were searched in Medline and EMBASE. Three independent reviewers examined studies of mortality within one year post-ART. An article was included if the study was conducted in a LMIC, participants were initiating ART in a non-clinical trial setting and were ≥15 years. Fifty studies were included; 38 (76%) from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), 5 (10%) from Asia, 2 (4%) from the Americas, and 5 (10%) were multi-regional. Median follow-up time and pre-ART CD4 cell count ranged from 3–55 months and 11–192 cells/mm³, respectively. Loss-to-follow-up, reported in 40 (80%) studies, ranged from 0.3%–27%. Overall, SSA had the highest pooled 12-month mortality probability of 0.17 (95% CI 0.11–0.24) versus 0.11 (95% CI 0.10–0.13) for Asia, and 0.07 (95% CI 0.007–0.20) for the Americas. Of 14 (28%) studies reporting cause-specific mortality, tuberculosis (TB) (5%–44%), wasting (5%–53%), advanced HIV (20%–37%), and chronic diarrhea (10%–25%) were most common. Independent factors associated with early mortality in 30 (60%) studies included: low baseline CD4 cell count, male sex, advanced World Health Organization clinical stage, low body mass index, anemia, age greater than 40 years, and pre-ART quantitative HIV RNA.

Conclusions

Significant heterogeneity in outcomes and in methods of reporting outcomes exist among published studies evaluating mortality in the first year after ART initiation in LMIC. Early mortality rates are highest in SSA, and opportunistic illnesses such as TB and wasting syndrome are the most common reported causes of death. Strategies addressing modifiable risk factors associated with early death are urgently needed.