The Importance of Continued US Investment to Sustain Momentum Toward Global Health Security

Commentary: Challenges to Achieve Conceptual Clarity in the Definition of Pandemics

From a scientific standpoint, the world is more prepared than ever to respond to infectious disease outbreaks; paradoxically, globalization and air travel, antimicrobial resistance, the threat of bioterrorism, and newly emerging pathogens driven by ecological, socioeconomic, and environmental factors, have increased the risk of global epidemics.1,2,3Following the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), global efforts to build global emergency response capabilities to contain infectious disease outbreaks were put in place.4,5,6But the recent H1N1, Ebola, and Zika global epidemics have shown unnecessary delays and insufficient coordination in response efforts.7,8,9,10In a thoughtful and compelling essay,11Thana C. de Campos argues that greater clarity in the definition of pandemics would probably result in more timely effective emergency responses, and pandemic preparedness. In her view, a central problem is that the definition of pandemics is based solely on disease transmission across several countries, and not on spread and severity together, which conflates two very different situations: emergency and nonemergency disease outbreaks. A greater emphasis on severity, such that pandemics are defined as severe and rapidly spreading infectious disease outbreaks, would make them “true global health emergencies,” allowing for priority resource allocation and effective collective actions in emergency response efforts. Sympathetic to the position taken by de Campos, here I highlight some of the challenges in the definition of severity during an infectious disease outbreak.

Simulation and Modeling Applications in Global Health Security

Global health security (GHS) is dependent upon having an adequate and prepared health security workforce. There are currently numerous challenges in establishing and maintaining a health security workforce. The frequency and magnitude of disasters have increased significantly over the past 30 years. Current and future GHS threats, both manmade and natural, require a prepared and flexible healthcare provider workforce ready to respond to current or emerging GHS threats. Developing and maintaining GHS -specific skills in the healthcare workforce is a tremendous logistical challenge. Innovative education technologies, including simulation and digital learning, can be leveraged to achieve preparedness for GHS threats.

This chapter focuses on the application of modeling and simulation to support Global Health Security planning, preparedness and operations.

Long-distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment

Although the economic consequences of epidemic outbreaks to affected areas are often well documented, little is known about how these might carry over into the economies of unaffected regions. In the absence of direct pathogen transmission, global trade is one mechanism through which geographically distant epidemics could reverberate to unaffected countries. This study explores the link between global public health events and U.S. economic outcomes by evaluating the role of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak in U.S. exports and exports-supported U.S. jobs, 2005-2016. Estimates were obtained using difference-in-differences models where sub-Saharan Africa countries were assigned to treatment and comparison groups based on their Ebola transmission status, with controls for observed and unobserved time-variant factors that may independently influence trends in trade. Multiple model specification checks were performed to ensure analytic robustness. The year of peak transmission, 2014, was estimated to result in $1.08 billion relative reduction in U.S. merchandise exports to Ebola-affected countries, whereas estimated losses in exports-supported U.S. jobs exceeded 1,200 in 2014 and 11,000 in 2015. These findings suggest that remote disruptions in health security might play a role in U.S. economic indicators, demonstrating the interconnectedness between global health and aspects of the global economy and informing the relevance of health security efforts.