Association of Circulating Progesterone With Breast Cancer Risk Among Postmenopausal Women

Quantitative analysis of 34 sex (pro)hormones, conjugates and bioactive oxidation products thereof in human plasma by GC- and LC-MS/MS and systematic investigation of overestimations of analyte concentrations not accounted for by method validation

When investigating endocrine disorders, it is essential to assess a comprehensive quantitative profile of sex (pro)hormones in plasma including conjugates. Thus, the present study aimed to develop and validate a comprehensive mass spectrometry-based multimethod combining the direct analysis of unconjugated sex (pro)hormones and oxidation products thereof (by GC), as well as their sulfates and glucuronides present in higher concentrations (by LC) with the indirect quantification of glucuronides present in lower concentrations after selective glucuronide hydrolysis (by GC) and its application to plasma derived from ten pre- and postmenopausal women and men each. Even guideline-compliant validation experiments cannot completely reflect overestimation of analyte concentrations due to effects depending on the individual ratio of analytes (i.e. chemical formation of analytes or incomplete removal of interfering analytes). Thus, the extent of processes not accounted for by the calibration strategy were investigated and maximum over- or underestimations of analyte concentrations were assessed for each plasma sample individually. 34 analytes were successfully calibrated, validated (median accuracy 101.1 %, median inter-day precision 8.1 %) and 31 were detected above the detection limit in plasma samples. The sporadic maximum individual over- or underestimation of analyte concentrations amounted to less than 20 %.

The implications of hormone treatment for cancer risk, screening and treatment in transgender individuals

There is evidence that gender-affirming hormone treatment (GAHT) for transgender individuals modulates their risk for specific malignancies including breast and prostate cancer, and meningiomas. However, there is insufficient data to make precise risk estimates accounting for age and inherited cancer risk. As such, screening recommendations remain broad. Even less evidence exists for best practice in the management of active or historical cancers in the transgender population. Guidance is therefore mainly extrapolated from cisgender populations but with considerations of the significant benefits of GAHT in the face of any hormonal risk. Clinical experience, the multidisciplinary team and shared decision making with the patient are vital in providing person-centred care, while further research is acquired.

DREAM On, DREAM Off: A Review of the Estrogen Paradox in Luminal A Breast Cancers

It is generally assumed that all estrogen-receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancers proliferate in response to estrogen and, therefore, examples of the estrogen-induced regression of ER+ cancers are paradoxical. This review re-examines the estrogen regression paradox for the Luminal A subtype of ER+ breast cancers. The proliferative response to estrogen is shown to depend on the level of ER. Mechanistically, a window of opportunity study of pre-operative estradiol suggested that with higher levels of ER, estradiol could activate the DREAM-MMB (Dimerization partner, Retinoblastoma-like proteins, E2F4, and MuvB-MYB-MuvB) pathway to decrease proliferation. The response of breast epithelium and the incidence of breast cancers during hormonal variations that occur during the menstrual cycle and at the menopausal transition, respectively, suggest that a single hormone, either estrogen, progesterone or androgen, could activate the DREAM pathway, leading to reversible cell cycle arrest. Conversely, the presence of two hormones could switch the DREAM-MMB complex to a pro-proliferative pathway. Using publicly available data, we examine the gene expression changes after aromatase inhibitors and ICI 182,780 to provide support for the hypothesis. This review suggests that it might be possible to integrate all current hormonal therapies for Luminal A tumors within a single theoretical schema.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis

PURPOSE

Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways.

METHODS

This analysis included 1208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex-hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders.

RESULTS

Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.05).

CONCLUSION

Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex-hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

Effects of Endocrine Interventions Targeting ERα or PR on Breast Cancer Risk in the General Population and Carriers of BRCA1/2 Pathogenic Variants

There is evidence suggesting that endocrine interventions such as hormone replacement therapy and hormonal contraception can increase breast cancer (BC) risk. Sexual steroid hormones like estrogens have long been known for their adverse effects on BC development and progression via binding to estrogen receptor (ER) α. Thus, in recent years, endocrine interventions that include estrogens have been discussed more and more critically, and their impact on different BC subgroups has increasingly gained interest. Carriers of pathogenic variants in BRCA1/2 genes are known to have a high risk of developing BC and ovarian cancer. However, there remain open questions to what extent endocrine interventions targeting ERα or the progesterone receptor further increase cancer risk in this subgroup. This review article aims to provide an overview and update on the effects of endocrine interventions on breast cancer risk in the general population in comparison to BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. Finally, future directions of research are addressed, to further improve the understanding of the effects of endocrine interventions on high-risk pathogenic variant carriers.

Sex-steroid hormones and risk of postmenopausal estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: a case-cohort analysis

Purpose

Sex-steroid hormones are associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but potential confounding from other biological pathways is rarely considered. We estimated risk ratios for sex-steroid hormone biomarkers in relation to postmenopausal estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer, while accounting for biomarkers from insulin/insulin-like growth factor-signaling and inflammatory pathways.

Methods

This analysis included 1,208 women from a case-cohort study of postmenopausal breast cancer within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Weighted Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator was used to estimate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer, per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone, estrogens, androgens, and sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Analyses included sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders, and other biomarkers identified as potential confounders.

Results

Increased risks of postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer were observed per doubling plasma concentration of progesterone (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.44), androstenedione (RR: 1.20, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.45), dehydroepiandrosterone (RR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.34), total testosterone (RR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.96 to 1.29), free testosterone (RR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.28), estrone (RR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.48), total estradiol (RR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.39) and free estradiol (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.41). A possible decreased risk was observed for SHBG (RR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.66 to 1.05).

Conclusion

Progesterone, estrogens and androgens likely increase postmenopausal ER-positive breast cancer risk, whereas SHBG may decrease risk. These findings strengthen the causal evidence surrounding the sex hormone-driven nature of postmenopausal breast cancer.

AIB1/SRC-3/NCOA3 function in estrogen receptor alpha positive breast cancer

The estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) is a steroid receptor that is pivotal in the initiation and progression of most breast cancers. ERα regulates gene transcription through recruitment of essential coregulators, including the steroid receptor coactivator AIB1 (Amplified in Breast Cancer 1). AIB1 itself is an oncogene that is overexpressed in a subset of breast cancers and is known to play a role in tumor progression and resistance to endocrine therapy through multiple mechanisms. Here we review the normal and pathological functions of AIB1 in regard to its ERα-dependent and ERα-independent actions, as well as its genomic conservation and protein evolution. We also outline the efforts to target AIB1 in the treatment of breast cancer.

Targeting nuclear hormone receptors for the prevention of breast cancer

Advancements in research have led to the steady decline of breast cancer mortality over the past thirty years. However, breast cancer incidence has continued to rise, resulting in an undue burden on healthcare costs and highlighting a great need for more effective breast cancer prevention strategies, including targeted chemo preventative agents. Efforts to understand the etiology of breast cancer have uncovered important roles for nuclear receptors in the development and progression of breast cancer. Targeted therapies to inhibit estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) signaling (selective ER modulators, aromatase inhibitors and selective PR modulators) have shown great promise for the treatment and prevention of hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. However, these drugs do not prevent HR-negative disease. Therefore, recent efforts have focused on novel targeted therapies with the potential to prevent both HR-positive and HR-negative breast cancer. Among these include drugs that target other nuclear receptors, such as retinoic acid receptor (RAR), retinoid X receptor (RXR) and vitamin D receptor (VDR). In this review we provide an overview of recent preclinical and clinical trials targeting members of the nuclear receptor superfamily for the prevention of breast cancer.

The recent progress of endocrine therapy-induced osteoporosis in estrogen-positive breast cancer therapy

Breast cancer is a significant global health concern, and the discovery of endocrine therapy has played a crucial role in the treatment of estrogen-positive breast cancer. However, these therapies are often associated with osteoporosis-related adverse events, which increase the risk of fractures in breast cancer patients and can result in limited mobility and reduced quality of life. Previous studies have shown that osteoporosis is essential side effects of the breast cancer therapy, although the exact mechanisms remain mostly unclear. Current clinical treatments, such as bisphosphonates, cause side effects and may impact the therapeutic response to endocrine drugs. In this review, we explore the likelihood of endocrine therapy-induced osteoporosis in estrogen-positive breast cancer therapy and discuss the involved mechanisms as well as the therapeutic potential of drugs and drug combination strategies.

Effect of 3α-dihydroprogesterone and 5α-dihydroprogesterone on DCIS cells and possible impact for postmenopausal women

OBJECTIVE

Progesterone metabolites 5α-dihydroprogesterone (5αP) and 3α-dihydroprogesterone (3αP) have opposite effects on proliferation, apoptosis and metastasis in the breast. Evidence regarding their influence on ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions is lacking.

METHODS

MCF10DCIS.com cells were cultured in a 3D culture system and treated with 5αP or 3αP. After 5 and 12 days of treatment, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of proliferation, invasion/metastasis, anti-apoptotic or other markers was performed. Cells treated with the tumor-promoting 5αP were observed under the light and confocal microscopes to reveal possible morphological changes that could indicate a transition from an in situ to an invasive phenotype. As a control, the morphology of the MDA-MB-231 invasive cell line was examined. The invasive potential after exposure to 5αP was also assessed using a detachment assay.

RESULTS

The PCR analysis of the chosen markers showed no statistically significant difference between naive cells and cells treated with 5αP or 3αP. DCIS spheroids retained their in situ morphology after treatment with 5αP. The detachment assay showed no increased potential for invasion after exposure to 5αP. Progesterone metabolites 5αP and 3αP do not facilitate or prohibit tumor promotion/invasion in MCF10DCIS.com cells, respectively.

CONCLUSION

As oral micronized progesterone has been proved effective for hot flushes in postmenopausal women, first in vitro data propose that progesterone-only therapy could possibly be considered for women after DCIS suffering from hot flushes.

Sex steroid hormones and DNA repair regulation: Implications on cancer treatment responses

The role of sex steroid hormones (SSHs) has been shown to modulate cancer cytotoxic treatment sensitivity. Dysregulation of DNA repair associated with genomic instability, abnormal cell survival and not only promotes cancer progression but also resistance to cancer treatment. The three major SSHs, androgen, estrogen, and progesterone, have been shown to interact with several essential DNA repair components. The presence of androgens directly regulates key molecules in DNA double-strand break (DSB) repair. Estrogen can promote cell proliferation and DNA repair, allowing cancer cells to tolerate chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Information on the role of progesterone in DNA repair is limited: progesterone interaction with some DNA repair components has been identified, but the biological significance is still unknown. Here, we review the roles of how each SSH affects DNA repair regulation and modulates response to genotoxic therapies and discuss future research that can be beneficial when combining SSHs with cancer therapy. We also provide preliminary analysis from publicly available databases defining the link between progesterone/PR and DDRs & DNA repair regulation that plausibly contribute to chemotherapy response and breast cancer patient survival.

Progesterone Receptor Gene Polymorphisms and Breast Cancer Risk

The objective of this systematic review was to investigate the association between polymorphisms in the progesterone receptor gene (PGR) and breast cancer risk. A search of PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases was performed in November 2021. Study characteristics, minor allele frequencies, genotype frequencies, and odds ratios were extracted. Forty studies met the eligibility criteria and included 75 032 cases and 89 425 controls. Of the 84 PGR polymorphisms reported, 7 variants were associated with breast cancer risk in at least 1 study. These polymorphisms included an Alu insertion (intron 7) and rs1042838 (Val660Leu), also known as PROGINS. Other variants found to be associated with breast cancer risk included rs3740753 (Ser344Thr), rs10895068 (+331G/A), rs590688 (intron 2), rs1824128 (intron 3), and rs10895054 (intron 6). Increased risk of breast cancer was associated with rs1042838 (Val660Leu) in 2 studies, rs1824128 (intron 3) in 1 study, and rs10895054 (intron 6) in 1 study. The variant rs3740753 (Ser344Thr) was associated with decreased risk of breast cancer in 1 study. Mixed results were reported for rs590688 (intron 2), rs10895068 (+331G/A), and the Alu insertion. In a pooled analysis, the Alu insertion, rs1042838 (Val660Leu), rs3740753 (Ser344Thr), and rs10895068 (+331G/A) were not associated with breast cancer risk. Factors reported to contribute to differences in breast cancer risk associated with PGR polymorphisms included age, ethnicity, obesity, and postmenopausal hormone therapy use. PGR polymorphisms may have a small contribution to breast cancer risk in certain populations, but this is not conclusive with studies finding no association in larger, mixed populations.

Association of serum reproductive hormones changes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy with hormone receptors expression alterations and survival outcomes in breast cancer

Purpose

This study aimed to determine the effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) on circulating levels of reproductive hormones and evaluate the correlation of hormone changes after NAC with hormone receptors expression alterations and relapse-free survival (RFS) outcomes in breast cancer.

Methods

Information from 181 breast cancer patients who received NAC was retrospectively analyzed. For hormones parameters, the median and interquartile range (IQR) were provided at baseline and the end of NAC then was compared by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Categorical variables were represented as numbers and percentages and were compared via two-sided chi-square and Fisher's tests. The RFS outcomes were compared between patients according to hormone changes using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were carried out using Cox regression.

Results

Sex steroids including estradiol, progesterone, testosterone, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) levels decreased significantly after NAC among both premenopausal and postmenopausal patients (all P < 0.05). Decreased estradiol levels were associated with reduced progesterone receptor (PR) expression (P = 0.030). In multivariate survival analysis, the non-decreased progesterone level was strongly associated with worse RFS (non-decreased vs. decreased, HR = 7.178, 95% CI 2.340–22.019, P = 0.001). Patients with decreased progesterone levels exhibited better 3-year RFS compared with those with non-decreased (87.6% vs. 58.3%, log-rank, P = 0.001).

Conclusion

Multiple reproductive hormone levels were influenced by NAC. The change in estradiol level had a positive connection with PR expression alteration. Furthermore, an inverse association between the change in progesterone level and RFS outcomes was found. These findings may provide a theoretical basis for pre-operative endocrine therapy combined with NAC in breast cancer patients.

The Role of Progesterone Receptors in Breast Cancer

The progesterone receptor (PR) modulates estrogen receptors α (ERα) action in breast cancer; it is an upregulated target gene of ER, and its expression is dependent on estrogen. PR is also a valuable prognostic biomarker in breast cancer, especially in hormone-positive breast cancer. High expression of PR is more frequently observed in tumors with a better baseline prognosis (ie, luminal A) than tumors with a poor baseline prognosis (ie, luminal B). In the following review, we present the role of PR in breast cancer, including the genomic characteristics and pathways in breast cancer, PR and endocrine therapy.

Effects of menopausal hormone therapy-based on the role of estrogens, progestogens, and their metabolites in proliferation of breast cancer cells

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) has been widely used for the clinical treatment of symptoms associated with menopause in women. However, the exact nature of the relationship between MHT and the increased risk of breast cancer has not been fully elucidated. The results of the Women's Health Initiative's randomized controlled clinical studies showed that estrogen monotherapy was associated with a lower incidence of breast cancer as compared to estrogen-progesterone combined therapy, with an elevated risk of breast cancer. The evidence currently available from randomized trials and observational studies is based on data from different populations, drug formulations, and routes of administration. Even though the risks of MHT and breast cancer have received a great deal of attention, information regarding the unpredictable toxicological risks of estrogen and progestogen metabolism needs to be further analyzed. Furthermore, the diversity and complexity of the metabolic pathways of estrogen and different progestogens as well as the association of the different estrogen and progestogen metabolites with the increased risk of breast cancer need to be adequately studied. Therefore, this review aimed to describe the biological effects of estrogen, progesterone, and their metabolites on the proliferation of breast cancer cells, based on relevant basic research and clinical trials, to improve our understanding of the biological functions of estrogen and progestogen as well as the safety of MHT.

Association of Endogenous Pregnenolone, Progesterone, and Related Metabolites with Risk of Endometrial and Ovarian Cancers in Postmenopausal Women: The BFIT Cohort

BACKGROUND

Postmenopausal pregnenolone and/or progesterone levels in relation to endometrial and ovarian cancer risks have been infrequently evaluated. To address this, we utilized a sensitive and reliable assay to quantify prediagnostic levels of seven markers related to endogenous hormone metabolism.

METHODS

Hormones were quantified in baseline serum collected from postmenopausal women in a cohort study nested within the Breast and Bone Follow-up to the Fracture Intervention Trial (B∼FIT). Women using exogenous hormones at baseline (1992-1993) were excluded. Incident endometrial (n = 65) and ovarian (n = 67) cancers were diagnosed during 12 follow-up years and compared with a subcohort of 345 women (no hysterectomy) and 413 women (no oophorectomy), respectively. Cox models with robust variance were used to estimate cancer risk.

RESULTS

Circulating progesterone levels were not associated with endometrial [tertile (T)3 vs. T1 HR (95% confidence interval): 1.87 (0.85-4.11); P _trend = 0.17] or ovarian cancer risk [1.16 (0.58-2.33); 0.73]. Increasing levels of the progesterone-to-estradiol ratio were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk [T3 vs. T1: 0.29 (0.09-0.95); 0.03]. Increasing levels of 17-hydroxypregnenolone were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk [0.40 (0.18-0.91); 0.03] and positively associated with ovarian cancer risk [3.11 (1.39-6.93); 0.01].

CONCLUSIONS

Using sensitive and reliable assays, this study provides novel data that endogenous progesterone levels are not strongly associated with incident endometrial or ovarian cancer risks. 17-hydroxypregnenolone was positively associated with ovarian cancer and inversely associated with endometrial cancer.

IMPACT

While our results require replication in large studies, they provide further support of the hormonal etiology of endometrial and ovarian cancers.

Pharmacokinetics, metabolism and serum concentrations of progestins used in contraception

Many different forms of hormonal contraception are used by millions of women worldwide. These contraceptives differ in the dose and type of synthetic progestogenic compound (progestin) used, as well as the route of administration and whether or not they contain estrogenic compounds. There is an increasing awareness that different forms of contraception and different progestins have different side-effect profiles, in particular their cardiovascular effects, effects on reproductive cancers and susceptibility to infectious diseases. There is a need to develop new methods to suit different needs and with minimal risks, especially in under-resourced areas. This requires a better understanding of the pharmacokinetics, metabolism, serum and tissue concentrations of progestins used in contraception as well as the biological activities of progestins and their metabolites via steroid receptors. Here we review the current knowledge on these topics and identify the research gaps. We show that there is a paucity of research on most of these topics for most progestins. We find that major impediments to clear conclusions on these topics include a lack of standardized methodologies, comparisons between non-parallel clinical studies and variability of data on serum concentrations between and within studies. The latter is most likely due, at least in part, to differences in intrinsic characteristics of participants. The review highlights the importance of insight on these topics in order to provide the best contraceptive options to women with minimal risks.

Endogenous Progestogens and Colorectal Cancer Risk among Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND

The role of progestogens in colorectal cancer development is poorly characterized. To address this, our group developed a highly sensitive assay to measure concentrations of seven markers of endogenous progestogen metabolism among postmenopausal women.

METHODS

The markers were measured in baseline serum collected from postmenopausal women in a case-cohort study within the breast and bone follow-up to the fracture intervention trial (B∼FIT). We followed women not using exogenous hormones at baseline (1992-1993) for up to 12 years: 187 women with incident colorectal cancer diagnosed during follow-up and a subcohort of 495 women selected on strata of age and clinical center. We used adjusted Cox regression models with robust variance to estimate risk for colorectal cancer [hazard ratios (HR), 95% confidence intervals (CI)].

RESULTS

High concentrations of pregnenolone and progesterone were not associated with colorectal cancer [quintile(Q)5 versus Q1: pregnenolone HR, 0.71, 95% CI, 0.40-1.25; progesterone HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.71-2.22]. A trend of increasing risk was suggested, but statistically imprecise across quintiles of 17-hydroxypregnenolone (Q2 to Q5 HRs, 0.75-1.44; P _trend, 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

We used sensitive and reliable assays to measure multiple circulating markers of progestogen metabolism. Progestogens were generally unassociated with colorectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women.

IMPACT

Our findings are consistent with most prior research on circulating endogenous sex hormones, which taken together suggest that sex hormones may not be major drivers of colorectal carcinogenesis in postmenopausal women.

Meta-Analysis of Breast Cancer Risk in Levonorgestrel-Releasing Intrauterine System Users

To map and assess evidence regarding use of the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) and its association with breast cancer, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. A search strategy was developed using the terms "Levonorgestrel-releasing," "LNG-IUS," "intrauterine system," and "breast cancer. The electronic databases searched were MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Latin American & Caribbean Health Sciences Literature, and Google Scholar for studies published until August 2020. We included observational studies: prospective or retrospective cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional. A total of 494 studies were identified, 294 studies were evaluated by title and abstract, and 262 were excluded because they did not meet the inclusion criteria. A total of 32 studies were read in full, and 24 were excluded. Thus, eight studies were included in the systematic review. The meta-analysis included four studies (two cohort and two case-control studies). Two subgroup analyses were performed for different study designs. The estimated relative risk for the two cohort studies (144,996 cases), with moderate-quality evidence, was 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.840-1.03). The odds ratio estimated for the two case-control studies (5556 cases and 35987 controls), with moderate-quality evidence, was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.91-1.26). Evidence of an increased risk of breast cancer was not observed in levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system users.

Prediction models for breast cancer prognosis among Asian women

BACKGROUND

Robust and reliable prognosis prediction models have not been developed and validated for Asian patients with breast cancer, a rapidly growing yet understudied population in the United States.

METHODS

We used longitudinal data from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study, a population-based prospective cohort study (n = 5042), to develop prediction models for 5- and 10-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). The initial models considered age at diagnosis, tumor grade, tumor size, number of positive nodes, TNM stage, chemotherapy, tamoxifen therapy, and estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status. We then evaluated whether the addition of modifiable lifestyle factors (physical activity, soy isoflavones intake, and postdiagnostic weight change) improved the models. All final models have been validated internally and externally in the National Cancer Database when applicable.

RESULTS

Our final models included age at diagnosis, tumor grade, tumor size, number of positive nodes, TNM stage, chemotherapy, tamoxifen therapy, ER status, PR status, 6-month postdiagnostic weight change, interaction between ER status and tamoxifen therapy, and interaction between age and TNM stage. The internal validation yielded C-statistics of 0.76, 0.74, 0.78, and 0.75 for 5-year DFS, 10-year DFS, 5-year OS, and 10-year OS, respectively. The external validation yielded C-statistics of 5- and 10-year OS both at 0.78 for Chinese ethnicity, 0.79 for East Asian ethnicity, and 0.75 and 0.76 for all ethnic groups combined.

CONCLUSION

We developed prediction models for breast cancer prognosis from a large prospective study. Our prognostic models performed very well in women from the United States-particularly in Asian American women-and demonstrated high prediction accuracy and generalizability.