An application of lifetime models in estimation of expected length of stay of patients in hospital with complexity and age adjustment

Understanding the Drivers of Cost and Length of Stay in a Cohort of 21,875 Patients with Severe Burn

Burn management has significantly advanced in the past 75 years, resulting in improved mortality rates. However, there are still over one million burn victims in the United States each year, with over 3,000 burn-related deaths annually. The impacts of individual patient, hospital, and regional demographics on length of stay (LOS) and total cost have yet to be fully explored in a large nationally representative cohort. Thus, this study aimed to examine various hospital and patient characteristics using a sample of over 20,000 patients. Inpatient data from the National Inpatient Sample from 2008 to 2015 were analyzed, and only patients with an ICD-9 code for second- or third-degree burns were included. In addition, a major operating room procedure must have been indicated on the discharge summary for patients to be included in the final dataset, ensuring that only severe burns requiring complex care were analyzed. Analysis of covariance models was used to evaluate the impact of various patient, hospital, and regional variables on both LOS and cost. The study found that skin grafts and fasciotomy significantly increased the cost of hospitalization. Having burns on the face, neck, and trunk significantly increased costs for patients with second-degree burns, while burns on the trunk resulted in the longest LOS for patients with third-degree burns. Infections in the hospital and additional procedures, such as flaps and skin grafts, also led to longer stays. The study also found that the prevalence of postoperative complications, such as electrolyte imbalance, was high among patients with burn surgery.

Racial/ethnic and socioeconomic variations in hospital length of stay: A state-based analysis

Disparities by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES) exist in rehospitalization rates and inpatient mortality rates. Few studies have examined how length of stay (LOS, a measure of hospital efficiency/quality) differs by race/ethnicity and SES.This study's objective was to determine whether differences in risk-adjusted LOS exist by race/ethnicity and SESUsing a retrospective cohort of 1,432,683 medical and surgical discharges, we compared risk-adjusted LOS, in days, by race/ ethnicity and SES (median household income by patient ZIP code in quartiles), using generalized linear models controlling for demographic and clinical factors, and differences between hospitals and between diagnoses.White patients were on average older than both Black and Hispanic patients, had more chronic conditions, and had a higher inpatient mortality risk. In adjusted analyses, Black patients had a significantly longer LOS than White patients (0.25-day difference when discharged to home and 0.23-day difference when discharged to non-home destinations, both P<.001); there was no difference between Hispanic and White patients. Wealthier patients had a shorter LOS than poorer patients (0.16-day difference when discharged to home and 0.06-day difference when discharged to nonhome destinations, both P<.001). These differences by race/ethnicity reversed for Medicaid patients.Disparities in LOS exist based on a patient's race/ethnicity and SES. Black and poorer patients, but not Hispanic patients, have longer LOS compared to White and wealthier patients. In aggregate, these differences may be related to trust and implicit bias and have implications for use of LOS as a quality metric. Future research should examine the drivers of these disparities.

Adherence to a strict medication protocol can reduce length of stay in hospitalized patients with Parkinson's Disease

Background

Patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD) are at higher risk of complications when admitted to the hospital. Delays in PD medications and use of contraindicated medications contribute to the increased risk and prolong their lengths of stay (LOS). Using a hospital-wide PD protocol, we aimed to ensure PD medications were placed with "custom" timing to resemble the home schedules, and also to avoid ordering or administering contraindicated medications.

Material and methods

569 patients admitted in 2017 and 2018, were reviewed retrospectively. Mean age was 76.5 (SD 10.6), 332 were males and 237 were females. Charts were reviewed to assess if A) PD medications were ordered with custom timing, B) if not, were the orders changed to custom timed C) if contraindicated medications were ordered, and D) if they were administered. We also assessed the actual/expected length of stay during this time period. Chi Square and post hoc analyses were done to compare time points. Poisson regression analysis was done to assess relative improvement of variables.

Results

There was a 2.7 fold increase in orders placed with custom timing in 2018 compared to 2017 (RR = 2.651, 95%CI: 1.860-3.780, p < 0.0001), and a 3.2 fold increase in correction of non-custom orders in the same time period (RR = 3.246, 95%CI: 1.875-1.619, p < 0.0001). We also observed a decrease in the actual/expected LOS ratio from 1.54  to 1.32  (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

By utilizing an established platform for quality improvement, we were able to improve adherence to the home medication regimen timing in admitted PD patients. Our findings also suggests that adherence to a strict medication regimen protocol may decrease LOS for this patient population.

Predicting Mean Survival Time from Reported Median Survival Time for Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

Mean duration of survival following treatment is a prerequisite for cost-effectiveness analyses used for assessing new and costly life-extending therapies for cancer patients. Mean survival time is rarely reported due to censoring imposed by limited follow-up time, whereas the median survival time often is. The empirical relationship between mean and median survival time for cancer patients is not known.

AIM

To derive the empirical associations between mean and median survival time across cancer types and to validate this empirical prediction approach and compare it with the standard approach of fitting a Weibull distribution.

METHODS

We included all patients in Norway diagnosed from 1960 to 1999 with one of the 13 most common solid tumor cancers until emigration, death, or 31 December 2011, whichever came first. Observed median, restricted mean, and mean survival times were obtained in subcohorts defined by patients' sex, age, cancer type, and time period of diagnosis, which had nearly complete follow-up. Based on theoretical considerations, we fitted a linear relationship between observed means and medians on the log scale. For validation, we estimated mean survival from medians of bootstrap samples with artificially induced censoring and compared with fitting a Weibull distribution.

RESULTS

A linear relationship between log-mean survival time and log-median survival time was identified for the 6 cancers with shortest survival plus metastasized breast and prostate cancers. The predicted means of the empirical approach had smaller bias than the standard Weibull approach.

CONCLUSION

For cancer diagnoses with poor prognosis, mean survival times could be predicted from corresponding medians. This empirical prediction approach is useful for validation of estimates of mean survival time and sensitivity analyses in settings with aggregated data only.

Modeling the impact of comorbidity on breast cancer patient outcomes

The objective of this paper is to model the impact of comorbidity on breast cancer patient outcomes (e.g., length of stay and disposition). Previous studies suggest that comorbidities may significantly affect mortality risks for breast cancer patients. The 2006 AHRQ Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) is used to analyze the relationships among comorbidities (e.g., hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and mental disorder), total charges, length of stay, and patient disposition as a function of age and race. A multifaceted approach is used to quantify these relationships. A causal study is performed to explore the effect of various comorbidities on patient outcomes. Least squares regression models are developed to evaluate and compare significant factors that influence total charges and length of stay. Logistic regression is used to study the factors that may cause patient mortality or transferring. In addition, different survival models are developed to study the impact of comorbidity on length of stay with censoring information. This study shows the interactions and relationship among various comorbidities and breast cancer. It shows that certain hypertension may not increase length of stay and total charges; diabetes behaves differently among general population and breast cancer patients; mental disorder has an impact on patient disposition that affects true length of stay and charges, and obesity may have limited effect on patient outcomes. Moreover, this study will help to better understand the expenditure patterns for population subgroups with several chronic conditions and to quantify the impact of comorbidities on patient outcomes. Lastly, it also provides insight for breast cancer patients with comorbidities as a function of age and race.

Enteral nutrition and biliopancreatic diversion effectively minimize impacts of gastroparesis after pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Since gastroparesis is unavoidable in a certain proportion of patients after pancreaticoduodenectomy, measures to avoid its occurrence or at least minimize its impact are needed. A prospective randomized trial was performed to test the effectiveness of biliopancreatic diversion with modified Roux-en-Y gastrojejunostomy reconstruction and of enteral feeding to minimize impacts of gastroparesis after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

METHODS

In total, 247 patients with periampullary tumors were randomized at the time of pancreaticoduodenectomy to have either (1) modified Roux-en-Y gastrojejunostomy reconstruction (by creating a side-to-side jejunojejunostomy between afferent and efferent loop and closing the afferent loop with a TA-30-3.5 stapler) and insertion of a jejunostomy feeding tube (modified group) or (2) conventional gastric bypass (control group). Outcomes including complications, duration of nasogastric tube placement, and length of hospital stay were followed prospectively.

RESULTS

Gastroparesis occurred in 20 patients (16.3%) in the modified group and 27 patients in the control group (21.7%, P = 0.27). However, the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery grades of gastroparesis were significantly lower in the modified group (10A, 5B, 5C) than in the control group (4A, 5B, 18C, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Modified procedure does not reduce the risk of gastroparesis but appears to reduce the severity when it occurs.

Regression analysis of restricted mean survival time based on pseudo-observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.

Gastric decompression and enteral feeding through a double-lumen gastrojejunostomy tube improves outcomes after pancreaticoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility and safety of inserting a double-lumen gastrojejunostomy tube (GJT) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) and to evaluate associated outcomes.

BACKGROUND

Gastroparesis is a frequent postoperative event following PD. This often necessitates prolonged gastric decompression and nutritional support. A double-lumen GJT may be particularly useful in this situation: gastric decompression may be achieved through the gastric port without a nasogastric tube; enteral feeding may be administered through the jejunal port.

METHODS

Thirty-six patients with periampullary tumors were randomized at the time of PD to insertion of GJT or to the routine care of the operating surgeon. Outcomes, including length of stay, complications, and costs, were followed prospectively.

RESULTS

The 2 groups had similar characteristics. Prolonged gastroparesis occurred in 4 controls (25%) and in none of the patients who had a GJT (P = 0.03). Complication rates were similar in each group. Mean postoperative length of stay was significantly longer in controls compared with patients who had a GJT (15.8 +/- 7.8 days versus 11.5 +/- 2.9 days, respectively; P = 0.01). Hospital charges were 82,151 +/- 56,632 dollars in controls and 52,589 +/- 15,964 dollars in the GJT group (P = 0.036).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing PD, insertion of a GJT is safe. Moreover, insertion of a GJT improves average length of stay. At the time of resection of periampullary tumors, GJT insertion should be considered, especially given this is a patient population in which weight loss and cachexia are frequent.

Association between intra-operative incidents and postoperative outcome and resource utilisation

We assessed the predictive value of intra-operative quality indicators (incidents) with respect to outcome (hospital mortality) and resource utilisation (length of stay in the postanaesthesia care unit and in hospital). Institutional data obtained from reports of a quality system that complies with the ISO 9002 standard were evaluated retrospectively. Incidents occurred in 2009 of 25 091 anaesthetics. Mortality was higher after incidents than after uneventful anaesthetics, but in multivariate analysis the incidents did not contribute to mortality. Length of stay in the postanaesthesia care unit and hospital were longer after incidents (p < 0.001 for both). In multivariate analysis, incidents independently contributed to length of stay in the postanaesthesia care unit among ASA I-III patients (p < 0.05, 0.001 and 0.001, respectively) and to length of hospital stay among ASA II-III patients undergoing scheduled operations (p < 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively). Intra-operative incidents are associated with increased resource utilisation following surgery.

Assessment of the future resources and needs for hospitalization in Hong Kong SAR (Special Administrative District)

OBJECTIVES

To study the 'compression of morbidity' theory in the Hong Kong SAR by analysing the age and gender-specific hospitalization rates and the expected length of stay per patient for the period 1996-2000. 'Compression of morbidity' refers to the hypothesis that medical progress will reduce the duration of morbidity during life more significantly than increasing morbidity by extending life.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective study based on hospital admissions data from the Hospital Authority of Hong Kong which covers 93% of the patient population.

SETTING

Age and gender-specific hospitalization rates, expected length of stay and hospitalization needs for each specific age group in Hong Kong from 1996 to 2000, are estimated.

MAIN RESULTS

There is no empirical support for compression theory; and there is no significant change in the hospital admission rates for the period 1996-2000. The total number of patient days is expected to increase by 80% because of the ageing effect alone. It is projected that the geriatric service will account for more than 60% of the hospital patient days utilization in 2029. The elderly dependency ratio will increase and the social burden for the next generation will be increased, as the working populations size continues to decrease due to low fertility in the Hong Kong SAR.

CONCLUSION

The health care burden on the government is large and increasing. It is therefore essential to make plans to deal with the ageing population, which is predicted to be at its highest in 2020. The rising effect of public expectations on hospital services exerts further pressure on demand.