Impact of different variables on the outcome of patients with clinically confined prostate carcinoma: prediction of pathologic stage and biochemical failure using an artificial neural network

Clinical application of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling to predict BRCA1/2 germline deleterious variants in Chinese bilateral primary breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Bilateral breast cancer (BBC), as well as ovarian cancer, are significantly associated with germline deleterious variants in BRCA1/2, while BRCA1/2 germline deleterious variants carriers can exquisitely benefit from poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitors. However, formal genetic testing could not be carried out for all patients due to extensive use of healthcare resources, which in turn results in high medical costs. To date, existing BRCA1/2 deleterious variants prediction models have been developed in women of European or other descent who are quite genetically different from Asian population. Therefore, there is an urgent clinical need for tools to predict the frequency of BRCA1/2 deleterious variants in Asian BBC patients balancing the increased demand for and cost of cancer genetics services.

METHODS

The entire coding region of BRCA1/2 was screened for the presence of germline deleterious variants by the next generation sequencing in 123 Chinese BBC patients. Chi-square test, univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to assess the relationship between BRCA1/2 germline deleterious variants and clinicopathological characteristics. The R software was utilized to develop artificial neural network (ANN) and nomogram modeling for BRCA1/2 germline deleterious variants prediction.

RESULTS

Among 123 BBC patients, we identified a total of 20 deleterious variants in BRCA1 (8; 6.5%) and BRCA2 (12; 9.8%). c.5485del in BRCA1 is novel frameshift deleterious variant. Deleterious variants carriers were younger at first diagnosis (P = 0.0003), with longer interval between two tumors (P = 0.015), at least one medullary carcinoma (P = 0.001), and more likely to be hormone receptor negative (P = 0.006) and HER2 negative (P = 0.001). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.903 in ANN and 0.828 in nomogram modeling individually (P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

This study shows the spectrum of the BRCA1/2 germline deleterious variants in Chinese BBC patients and indicates that the ANN can accurately predict BRCA deleterious variants than conventional statistical linear approach, which confirms the BRCA1/2 deleterious variants carriers at the lowest costs without adding any additional examinations.

Applications of Machine Learning in Cancer Prediction and Prognosis

Machine learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that employs a variety of statistical, probabilistic and optimization techniques that allows computers to “learn” from past examples and to detect hard-to-discern patterns from large, noisy or complex data sets. This capability is particularly well-suited to medical applications, especially those that depend on complex proteomic and genomic measurements. As a result, machine learning is frequently used in cancer diagnosis and detection. More recently machine learning has been applied to cancer prognosis and prediction. This latter approach is particularly interesting as it is part of a growing trend towards personalized, predictive medicine. In assembling this review we conducted a broad survey of the different types of machine learning methods being used, the types of data being integrated and the performance of these methods in cancer prediction and prognosis. A number of trends are noted, including a growing dependence on protein biomarkers and microarray data, a strong bias towards applications in prostate and breast cancer, and a heavy reliance on “older” technologies such artificial neural networks (ANNs) instead of more recently developed or more easily interpretable machine learning methods. A number of published studies also appear to lack an appropriate level of validation or testing. Among the better designed and validated studies it is clear that machine learning methods can be used to substantially (15–25%) improve the accuracy of predicting cancer susceptibility, recurrence and mortality. At a more fundamental level, it is also evident that machine learning is also helping to improve our basic understanding of cancer development and progression.

Risk prediction models for biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy using prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score

Many computer models for predicting the risk of prostate cancer have been developed including for prediction of biochemical recurrence (BCR). However, models for individual BCR free probability at individual time-points after a BCR free period are rare. Follow-up data from 1656 patients who underwent laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP) were used to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict BCR and to compare it with a logistic regression (LR) model using clinical and pathologic parameters, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), margin status (R0/1), pathological stage (pT), and Gleason Score (GS). For individual BCR prediction at any given time after operation, additional ANN, and LR models were calculated every 6 months for up to 7.5 years of follow-up. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for the ANN (0.754) and LR models (0.755) calculated immediately following LRP, were larger than that for GS (AUC: 0.715; P = 0.0015 and 0.001), pT or PSA (AUC: 0.619; P always <0.0001) alone. The GS predicted the BCR better than PSA (P = 0.0001), but there was no difference between the ANN and LR models (P = 0.39). Our ANN and LR models predicted individual BCR risk from radical prostatectomy for up to 10 years postoperative. ANN and LR models equally and significantly improved the prediction of BCR compared with PSA and GS alone. When the GS and ANN output values are combined, a more accurate BCR prediction is possible, especially in high-risk patients with GS ≥7.

Artificial neural networks and prostate cancer--tools for diagnosis and management

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are mathematical models that are based on biological neural networks and are composed of interconnected groups of artificial neurons. ANNs are used to map and predict outcomes in complex relationships between given 'inputs' and sought-after 'outputs' and can also be used find patterns in datasets. In medicine, ANN applications have been used in cancer diagnosis, staging and recurrence prediction since the mid-1990s, when an enormous effort was initiated, especially in prostate cancer detection. Modern ANNs can incorporate new biomarkers and imaging data to improve their predictive power and can offer a number of advantages as clinical decision making tools, such as easy handling of distribution-free input parameters. Most importantly, ANNs consider nonlinear relationships among input data that cannot always be recognized by conventional analyses. In the future, complex medical diagnostic and treatment decisions will be increasingly based on ANNs and other multivariate models.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR THE PREDICTION OF BLADDER CANCER

New techniques for the prediction of tumour behaviour are needed as statistical analysis has a poor accuracy and is not applicable to the individual. Artificial intelligence (AI) may provide these suitable methods. We have previously shown that the predictive accuracies of neuro-fuzzy modelling (NFM) and artificial neural networks (ANN), two methods of AI, are superior to traditional statistical methods for the behaviour of bladder cancer (Catto et al, 2003). In this paper, we explain the AI techniques required to produce these predictive models. We used 9 parameters, which were a combination of experimental molecular biomarkers and conventional clinicopathological data, to predict the risk of tumour progression in a population of 109 patients with bladder cancer, NFM, using fuzzy logic to model data, achieved similar or superior predictive accuracy to ANN, which required cross-validation. However, unlike the impenetrable opaque structure of neural networks, the rules of NFM are transparent, enabling validation from clinical knowledge and the manipulation of input variables to allow exploratory predictions.

Prognostic accuracy of an artificial neural network in patients undergoing radical cystectomy for bladder cancer: a comparison with logistic regression analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the prognostic performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) with that of standard logistic regression (LR), in patients undergoing radical cystectomy for bladder cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From February 1982 to February 1994, 369 evaluable patients with non-metastatic bladder cancer had pelvic lymph node dissection and radical cystectomy for either stage Ta-T1 (any grade) tumour not responding to intravesical therapy, with or with no carcinoma in situ, or stage T2-T4 tumour. LR analysis based on 12 variables was used to identify predictors of overall 5-year survival, and the ANN model was developed to predict the same outcome. The LR analysis, based on statistically significant predictors, and the ANN model were the compared for their accuracy in predicting survival.

RESULTS

The median age of the patients was 63 years, and overall 201 of them died. The tumour stage and nodal involvement (both P<0.001) were the only statistically independent predictors of overall 5-year survival on LR analysis. Based on these variables, LR had a sensitivity and specificity for predicting survival of 68.4% and 82.8%, respectively; corresponding values for the ANN were 62.7% and 86.1%. For LR and ANN, the positive predictive values were 78.6% and 76.2%, and the negative predictive values were 73.9% and 76.5%, respectively. The index of diagnostic accuracy was 75.9% for LR and 76.4% for ANN.

CONCLUSIONS

The ANN accurately predicted the survival of patients undergoing radical cystectomy for bladder cancer and had a prognostic performance comparable with that of LR. As ANNs are based on easy-to-use software that can identify nonlinear interactions between variables, they might become the preferred tool for predicting outcome.

Computer technology in detection and staging of prostate carcinoma: A review

After two decades of increasing interest and research activity, computer-assisted diagnostic approaches are reaching the stage where more routine deployment in clinical practice is becoming a possibility [Kruppinski, E.A., 2004. Computer-aided detection in clinical environment: Benefits and challenges for radiologists. Radiology 231, 7-9]. This is particularly the case in the analysis of mammographic images [Helvie, M.A., Hadjiiski, L., Makariou, E., Chan, H.P., Petrick, N., Sahiner, B., Lo, S.C., Freedman, M., Adler, D., Bailey, J., Blane, C., Hoff, D., Hunt, K., Joynt, L., Klein, K., Paramagul, C., Patterson, S.K., Roubidoux, M.A., 2004. Sensitivity of noncommercial computer-aided detection system for mammographic breast cancer detection: pilot clinical trial. Radiology 231, 208-214] and in the detection of pulmonary nodules [Reeves, A.P., Kostis, W.J., 2000. Computer-aided diagnosis for lung cancer. Radiol. Clin. North Am. 38, 497-509]. However, similar approaches can be applied more widely with the promise of increasing clinical utility in other areas. We review how computer-aided approaches may be applied in the diagnosis and staging of prostatic cancer. The current status of computer technology is reviewed, covering artificial neural networks for detection and staging, computerised biopsy simulation and computer-assisted analysis of ultrasound and magnetic resonance images.

Can we improve the prediction of stone-free status after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy for ureteral stones? A neural network or a statistical model?

PURPOSE

We evaluated whether an artificial neural network (ANN) can improve the prediction of stone-free status after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) (Dornier Medical Systems, Inc., Marietta, Georgia) for ureteral stones compared to a logistic regression (LR) model.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between February 1989 and December 1998, 984 patients with ureteral stones, including 780 males and 204 females with a mean age +/- SD of 40.85 +/- 10.33 years, were treated with ESWL. Stone-free status at 3 months was determined by urinary tract plain x-ray and excretory urography. Of all patients 919 (93.3%) were free of stones. The impact of 10 factors on stone-free status was studied using an LR model and ANN. These factors were patient age and sex, renal anatomy, stone location, side, number, length and width, whether stones were de novo or recurrent, and stent use. An LR model was constructed and ANN was trained on 688 randomly selected patients (70%) to predict stone-free status at 3 months. The 10 factors were used as covariates in the LR model and as input parameters to ANN. Performance of the trained net and developed logistic model was evaluated in the remaining 296 patients (30%), who served as the test set. The sensitivity (percent of correctly predicted stone-free cases), specificity (percent of correctly predicted nonstonefree cases), positive predictive value, overall accuracy and average classification rate of the 2 techniques were compared. Relevant variables influencing the construction of the 2 models were compared.

RESULTS

Evaluating the performance of the LR and ANN models on the test set revealed a sensitivity of 100% and 77.9%, a specificity of 0.0% and 75%, a positive predictive value of 93.2% and 97.2%, an overall accuracy of 93.2% and 77.7%, and an average classification rate of 50% and 76.5%, respectively. LR failed to predict any nonstone free cases. LR and ANN identified stone location and stent use as important factors in determining the outcome, while ANN also identified stone length and width as influential factors.

CONCLUSIONS

ANN and LR could predict adequately those who would be stone-free after ESWL for ureteral stones. The neural network has a higher ability to predict those who fail to respond to ESWL.

THE PERCENT OF BIOPSY CORES POSITIVE FOR CANCER IS A PREDICTOR OF ADVANCED PATHOLOGICAL STAGE AND POOR CLINICAL OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS TREATED WITH RADICAL PROSTATECTOMY

PURPOSE

We examined if the percent of positive biopsies is associated with features of biologically aggressive prostate cancer, biochemical progression and development of distant metastases in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Multivariate analyses of preoperative features in 605 consecutive patients who underwent RP for clinically localized disease were evaluated to determine the association between the percent positive biopsy cores (PosBx), pathological stage and grade, and biochemical progression following RP. The percent of PosBx cores was defined using the formula, (number of positive biopsy cores/total number of biopsy cores) x 100.

RESULTS

The mean number of biopsy cores and percent PosBx cores +/- SE was 8.8 +/- 6.0 and 31.4 +/-21.1, respectively. Higher percent PosBx was significantly associated with higher preoperative prostate specific antigen (PSA), extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion, positive surgical margins, higher final Gleason sum, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion and metastases to regional lymph nodes. On multivariate analyses adjusted for the effects of standard preoperative features percent PosBx was associated with nonorgan confined disease, seminal vesicle invasion and biochemical progression after surgery (p = 0.049, 0.050 and 0.006, respectively). Percent PosBx retained its independent association with PSA progression after adjustment for the effects of postoperative pathological features (p = 0.015). Higher percent PosBx was associated with shorter PSA doubling time after PSA progression, and an increased risk of distant metastases and overall mortality (p = 0.039, 0.001 and 0.018, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Percent PosBx is associated with established pathological features, biochemical progression, distant metastases and overall death in patients who undergo RP for clinically localized disease. Percent PosBx should be included in preoperative predictive models for prognosticating outcomes after primary treatment and it may assist in selecting patients for inclusion in neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant therapy trials.

Artificial neural networks for decision-making in urologic oncology

The authors are presenting a thorough introduction in Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and their contribution to modern Urologic Oncology. The article covers a description of Artificial Neural Network methodology and points out the differences of Artificial Intelligence to traditional statistic models in terms of serving patients and clinicians, in a different way than current statistical analysis. Since Artificial Intelligence is not yet fully understood by many practicing clinicians, the authors have reviewed a careful selection of articles in order to explore the clinical benefit of Artificial Intelligence applications in modern Urology questions and decision-making. The data are from real patients and reflect attempts to achieve more accurate diagnosis and prognosis, especially in prostate cancer that stands as a good example of difficult decision-making in everyday practice. Experience from current use of Artificial Intelligence is also being discussed, and the authors address future developments as well as potential problems such as medical record quality, precautions in using ANNs or resistance to system use, in an attempt to point out future demands and the need for common standards. The authors conclude that both methods should continue to be used in a complementary manner. ANNs still do not prove always better as to replace standard statistical analysis as the method of choice in interpreting medical data.

An artificial neural network for prostate cancer staging when serum prostate specific antigen is 10 ng./ml. or less

PURPOSE

An artificial neural network was developed to improve the prediction of pathological stage before radical prostatectomy based on variables available at biopsy and clinical parameters.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We used the prospectively accrued European prostate cancer detection data base to train an artificial neural network to predict pathological stage in 200 men with serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) 10 ng./ml. or less who underwent radical prostatectomy. Variables included in the artificial neural network were patient age, serum PSA, free-to-total PSA ratio, PSA velocity, transrectal ultrasound calculated total and transition zone volumes with their associated PSA parameters (transition zone PSA density and PSA density), digital rectal examination and Gleason score on biopsy. Two multilayer perceptron neural networks were trained on the remaining variables. Data on the 200 patients were divided randomly into a training set, a test set and a validation or prospective set.

RESULTS

Overall classification accuracy of the artificial neural network was 92.7% and 84.2% for organ confined and advanced prostate cancer staging, respectively. For preoperatively predicting local versus advanced stage the area under the ROC curve for the artificial neural network was significantly larger (0.91) compared with logistic regression analysis (0.83), Gleason score (0.69), PSA density (0.68), prostate transition zone volume (0.63) and serum PSA (0.62) (all p <0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The artificial neural network outperformed logistic regression analysis and correctly predicted pathological stage in more than 90% of the validation patients with serum PSA 10 ng./ml. or less based on clinical, biochemical and biopsy data. In the future artificial neural networks may represent a significant step for improved staging of prostate cancer when counseling patients referred for radical prostatectomy or other curative treatments.

Prediction of lupus nephritis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus using artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks are intelligent systems that have been successfully used for prediction in different medical fields. In this study, efficiency of neural networks for prediction of lupus nephritis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) was compared with a logistic regression model and clinicians' diagnosis. Overall accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the optimal neural network were 68.69, 73.77 and 62.96%, respectively. Overall accuracy of neural network was greater than the other two methods (P-value < 0.05). The neural network was more specific in predicting lupus nephritis (P-value < 0.01), but there was no significant difference between sensitivities of the three methods. Sensitivities of all three methods were greater than their specificities. We concluded that neural networks are efficient in predicting lupus nephritis in SLE patients.

Multicenter Evaluation of an Artificial Neural Network to Increase the Prostate Cancer Detection Rate and Reduce Unnecessary Biopsies

Background: The percentage of free prostate-specific antigen (%fPSA) has been shown to improve specificity for the diagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) over total PSA (tPSA). A multicenter study was performed to evaluate the diagnostic value of a %fPSA-based artificial neural network (ANN) in men with tPSA concentrations between 2 and 20 μg/L for detecting patients with increased risk of a positive prostate biopsy for cancer.

Methods: We enrolled 1188 men from six different hospitals with PCa or benign prostates between 1996 and 2001. We used a newly developed ANN with input data of tPSA, %fPSA, patient age, prostate volume, and digital rectal examination (DRE) status to calculate the risk for the presence of PCa within different tPSA ranges (2–4, 4.1–10, 2–10, 10.1–20, and 2–20 μg/L) at the 90% and 95% specificity or sensitivity cutoffs, depending on the tPSA concentration. ROC analysis and cutoff calculations were used to estimate the diagnostic improvement of the ANN compared with %fPSA alone.

Results: In the low tPSA range (2–4 μg/L), the ANN detected 72% and 65% of cancers at specificities of 90% or 95%, respectively. At 4–10 μg/L tPSA, the ANN detected 90% and 95% of cancers with specificities of 62% and 41%, respectively. Use of the ANN with 2–10 μg/L tPSA enhanced the specificity of %fPSA by 20–22%, thus reducing the number of unnecessary biopsies.

Conclusions: Enhanced accuracy of PCa detection over that obtained using %fPSA alone can be achieved with a %fPSA-based ANN that also includes clinical information from DRE and prostate volume measurements.

Modeling medical prognosis: survival analysis techniques

Medical prognosis has played an increasing role in health care. Reliable prognostic models that are based on survival analysis techniques have been recently applied to a variety of domains, with varying degrees of success. In this article, we review some methods commonly used to model time-oriented data, such as Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazards, and logistic regression, and discuss their applications in medical prognosis. Nonlinear, nonparametric models such as neural networks have increasingly been used for building prognostic models. We review their use in several medical domains and discuss different implementation strategies. Advantages and disadvantages of these methods are outlined, as well as pointers to pertinent literature.