First trimester serum tests for Down's syndrome screening

Predicting Hypertensive Disease in the First Trimester of Pregnancy: Risk Models and Analysis of Serum D-dimer Levels Combined with Plasma Pregnancy-Associated Protein A, Free β-Subunit of Human Chorionic Gonadotropin, and Fetal Nuchal Translucency

We aimed to investigate the predictive ability of serum levels of D-dimer (DD) in the first trimester for the occurrence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP). In this retrospective, case-cohort study, we measured the levels of DD, plasma pregnancy-associated protein A (PAPP-A), and free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin (free β-hCG) and analyzed fetal nuchal translucency (NT) in 150 healthy gravidas, 126 cases of gestational hypertension (GH), 53 cases of preeclampsia (PE), and 41 cases with severe preeclampsia (SPE). Likelihood ratio models and risk models were built using single markers (DD, PAPP-A, free β-hCG, and NT) and combinations of those markers. Analyses showed that the levels of DD multiple of the median (MoM) in the GH, PE, and SPE groups were all significantly higher than those in the control group, with significant differences between groups (χ² = 70.325, P < 0.001). The area under curve (AUCs) for DD in the GH, PE, and SPE groups was 0.699, 0.784, and 0.893, respectively; the positive likelihood ratio (+LR) was 1.534, 1.804, and 2.941, respectively; and the negative likelihood ratio (-LR) was 0.022, 0.081, and 0, respectively. When the cut-off values of DD for the GH, PE, and SPE groups were 0.725, 0.815, and 0.945 MoM, respectively, the corresponding sensitivities were 0.992, 0.962, and 1.000, respectively. As gestational hypertension progressed, the levels of DD tended to increase gradually. The maternal serum level of DD in the first trimester had correlative and diagnostic value for HDP. The sensitivity and specificity of maternal serum levels of DD level in the first trimester for different types of HDP were significantly different; the best sensitivity and specificity were detected in the SPE group. First trimester DD level, combined with other biochemical markers, may improve our ability to diagnose HDP.

Empirical assessment of bias in machine learning diagnostic test accuracy studies

OBJECTIVE

Machine learning (ML) diagnostic tools have significant potential to improve health care. However, methodological pitfalls may affect diagnostic test accuracy studies used to appraise such tools. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence and reporting of design characteristics within the literature. Further, we sought to empirically assess whether design features may be associated with different estimates of diagnostic accuracy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We systematically retrieved 2 × 2 tables (n = 281) describing the performance of ML diagnostic tools, derived from 114 publications in 38 meta-analyses, from PubMed. Data extracted included test performance, sample sizes, and design features. A mixed-effects metaregression was run to quantify the association between design features and diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

Participant ethnicity and blinding in test interpretation was unreported in 90% and 60% of studies, respectively. Reporting was occasionally lacking for rudimentary characteristics such as study design (28% unreported). Internal validation without appropriate safeguards was used in 44% of studies. Several design features were associated with larger estimates of accuracy, including having unreported (relative diagnostic odds ratio [RDOR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-3.1) or case-control study designs (RDOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 0.97-1.66), and recruiting participants for the index test (RDOR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.08-2.59).

DISCUSSION

Significant underreporting of experimental details was present. Study design features may affect estimates of diagnostic performance in the ML diagnostic test accuracy literature.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study identifies pitfalls that threaten the validity, generalizability, and clinical value of ML diagnostic tools and provides recommendations for improvement.

Comparison of First Trimester Screening for Down's Syndrome Using Free Beta-Human Chorionic Gonadotropin and Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A Levels between Spontaneous and IVF Pregnancies at 12 Weeks of Gestation

Background

In some previous studies, it was shown that first trimester screening tests produce equivocal results in in vitro fertilization (IVF) pregnancies. The purpose of this study was to compare free beta-human chorionic gonadotro- pin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPPA) levels between single normal and IVF pregnancies during 11 to 13 week (+ 6 day) of gestational age.

Materials and Methods

In this observational cohort study, 300 consecutive single IVF pregnancies and 700 single normal pregnancies were enrolled at about 11-13 week + 6 day gestational age and levels of free β-hCG and PAPPA were compared between the groups.

Results

The results demonstrated that PAPPA (P=0.026) was significantly lower and β-hCG (P=0.030) was signifi- cantly higher in IVF pregnancies. The other factors including nuchal translucency (NT) and crown-rump length (CRL) and demographic characteristics did not significantly differ between the groups (P>0.05).

Conclusion

This study showed that PAPPA levels are lower but free β-hCG levels are higher in single IVF versus normal pregnancies. This finding could be related to different placentation in intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) technique because of alterations in oocyte cytoplasm. Therefore, these markers may need to be adjusted in assisted re- productive technology (ART) conceptions. Further research should be done to obtain optimal cut-off for these markers in first trimester screening for detection of Down syndrome in ART pregnancies.

Late presentation of pregnant women with chromosomal abnormalities: A barrier to legal and safe abortions in Muslim majority countries

Introduction: In Islamic countries, the prenatal diagnostic procedures are planned considering legal and religious limitations. We aimed to evaluate the indications of presentation and problems related to religious and legal limitations for presentation of Muslim parents for prenatal screening of chromosomal abnormalities. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed on consecutive 920 pregnant women presenting for screening of congenital and chromosomal anomalies to Educational Medical Centers of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran, between 2011 and 2015. Previously prepared questionnaire forms were utilized for collection of information from patients and their medical records. Results: In total, 153 cases had an indication for amniocentesis, and this procedure revealed that 141 fetuses (92.2%) did not have any congenital abnormalities, but 12 cases (7.8%) had some sort of abnormality, requiring pregnancy termination. These cases included 8 fetuses (5.2%) with trisomy and four (2.6%) with single gene diseases. Of 12 patients, the justifications for pregnancy termination were issued for 7 women by the provincial Legal Medicine Organization. However, the remaining 5 patients could not obtain legal justifications for termination of their pregnancies, mostly because of late presentation, obligating them to choose illegal methods for pregnancy termination. Conclusion: Regarding the legal and religious limitation of pregnancy termination after 18th week in Islamic countries, it is highly recommended that the first trimester screening programs be performed in Islamic countries in order to obtain early decision-making.

Antibiotics for amniotic-fluid colonization by Ureaplasma and/or Mycoplasma spp. to prevent preterm birth: A randomized trial

Objective

To assess whether antibiotics used for treatment in asymptomatic second-trimester women positive for Mycoplasma or Ureaplasma spp. detected by amniotic-fluid PCR prevents preterm delivery.

Design

A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Setting

10 maternal fetal medicine centers in France.

Population

Women with a singleton pregnancy who underwent amniocentesis between 16 and 20 weeks’ gestation (weeks) for Down syndrome screening. A sample of 238 women with PCR-positive findings per treatment group was needed to show a 50% reduction in the preterm delivery rate.

Methods

Amniotic fluid was tested. Women with positive findings on real-time PCR of amniotic fluid for Mycoplasma hominis, Mycoplasma genitalium, Ureaplasma urealyticum and Ureaplasma parvum were randomized to receive josamycin or placebo. Amniotic fluid was also tested for 16S PCR.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was delivery before 37 weeks.

Results

In total, 1043 women underwent amniotic-fluid screening with specific PCR detection between July 2008 and July 2011: PCR detection failed in 27 (2.6%), and 20 (1.9%) underwent termination of pregnancy. Among the 1016 women with PCR results, 980 had available data for the primary outcome (delivery before 37 weeks) and 29 (3.0%) were positive for Ureaplasma and/or Mycoplasma spp. Because of the low rate of women with PCR-positive findings, the trial was stopped prematurely. In total, 19 women were randomized to receive placebo (n = 8) or josamycin (n = 11) and their characteristics were comparable, as was the rate of preterm delivery and secondary outcomes. In comparing all PCR-positive and -negative women regardless of treatment, PCR positivity for Ureaplasma and/or Mycoplasma spp. was not associated with any adverse pregnancy or neonatal outcome. Amniotic-fluid screening by 16S PCR showed no other bacterial colonization associated with preterm birth.

Conclusions

Because of a low amniotic fluid colonization rate, the trial was interrupted. Maternal amniotic-fluid colonization by Mycoplasma and/or Ureaplasma spp. at 16–20 weeks in asymptomatic women is rare and not associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00718705

Women's perspectives on the ethical implications of non-invasive prenatal testing: a qualitative analysis to inform health policy decisions

Background

Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT) is a technology which provides information about fetal genetic characteristics (including sex) very early in pregnancy by examining fetal DNA obtained from a sample of maternal blood. NIPT is a morally complex technology that has advanced quickly to market with a strong push from industry developers, leaving many areas of uncertainty still to be resolved, and creating a strong need for health policy that reflects women’s social and ethical values. We approach the need for ethical policy-making by studying the use of NIPT and emerging policy in the province of Ontario, Canada.

Methods

Using an adapted version of constructivist grounded theory, we conducted interviews with 38 women who have had personal experiences with NIPT. We used an iterative process of data collection and analysis and a staged coding strategy to conduct a descriptive analysis of ethics issues identified implicitly and explicitly by women who have been affected by this technology.

Results

The findings of this paper focus on current ethical issues for women seeking NIPT, including place in the prenatal pathway, health care provider counselling about the test, industry influence on the diffusion of NIPT, consequences of availability of test results. Other issues gain relevance in the context of future policy decisions regarding NIPT, including funding of NIPT and principles that may govern the expansion of the scope of NIPT. These findings are not an exhaustive list of all the potential ethical issues related to NIPT, but rather a representation of the issues which concern women who have personal experience with this test.

Conclusions

Women who have had personal experience with NIPT have concerns and priorities which sometimes contrast dramatically with the theoretical ethics literature. These findings suggest the importance of engaging patients in ethical deliberation about morally complex technologies, and point to the need for more deliberative patient engagement work in this area.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12910-018-0267-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Genomics-based non-invasive prenatal testing for detection of fetal chromosomal aneuploidy in pregnant women

BACKGROUND

Common fetal aneuploidies include Down syndrome (trisomy 21 or T21), Edward syndrome (trisomy 18 or T18), Patau syndrome (trisomy 13 or T13), Turner syndrome (45,X), Klinefelter syndrome (47,XXY), Triple X syndrome (47,XXX) and 47,XYY syndrome (47,XYY). Prenatal screening for fetal aneuploidies is standard care in many countries, but current biochemical and ultrasound tests have high false negative and false positive rates. The discovery of fetal circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) in maternal blood offers the potential for genomics-based non-invasive prenatal testing (gNIPT) as a more accurate screening method. Two approaches used for gNIPT are massively parallel shotgun sequencing (MPSS) and targeted massively parallel sequencing (TMPS).

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate and compare the diagnostic accuracy of MPSS and TMPS for gNIPT as a first-tier test in unselected populations of pregnant women undergoing aneuploidy screening or as a second-tier test in pregnant women considered to be high risk after first-tier screening for common fetal aneuploidies. The gNIPT results were confirmed by a reference standard such as fetal karyotype or neonatal clinical examination.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched 13 databases (including MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science) from 1 January 2007 to 12 July 2016 without any language, search filter or publication type restrictions. We also screened reference lists of relevant full-text articles, websites of private prenatal diagnosis companies and conference abstracts.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies could include pregnant women of any age, ethnicity and gestational age with singleton or multifetal pregnancy. The women must have had a screening test for fetal aneuploidy by MPSS or TMPS and a reference standard such as fetal karyotype or medical records from birth.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently carried out study selection, data extraction and quality assessment (using the QUADAS-2 tool). Where possible, hierarchical models or simpler alternatives were used for meta-analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixty-five studies of 86,139 pregnant women (3141 aneuploids and 82,998 euploids) were included. No study was judged to be at low risk of bias across the four domains of the QUADAS-2 tool but applicability concerns were generally low. Of the 65 studies, 42 enrolled pregnant women at high risk, five recruited an unselected population and 18 recruited cohorts with a mix of prior risk of fetal aneuploidy. Among the 65 studies, 44 evaluated MPSS and 21 evaluated TMPS; of these, five studies also compared gNIPT with a traditional screening test (biochemical, ultrasound or both). Forty-six out of 65 studies (71%) reported gNIPT assay failure rate, which ranged between 0% and 25% for MPSS, and between 0.8% and 7.5% for TMPS.In the population of unselected pregnant women, MPSS was evaluated by only one study; the study assessed T21, T18 and T13. TMPS was assessed for T21 in four studies involving unselected cohorts; three of the studies also assessed T18 and 13. In pooled analyses (88 T21 cases, 22 T18 cases, eight T13 cases and 20,649 unaffected pregnancies (non T21, T18 and T13)), the clinical sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI)) of TMPS was 99.2% (78.2% to 100%), 90.9% (70.0% to 97.7%) and 65.1% (9.16% to 97.2%) for T21, T18 and T13, respectively. The corresponding clinical specificity was above 99.9% for T21, T18 and T13.In high-risk populations, MPSS was assessed for T21, T18, T13 and 45,X in 30, 28, 20 and 12 studies, respectively. In pooled analyses (1048 T21 cases, 332 T18 cases, 128 T13 cases and 15,797 unaffected pregnancies), the clinical sensitivity (95% confidence interval (CI)) of MPSS was 99.7% (98.0% to 100%), 97.8% (92.5% to 99.4%), 95.8% (86.1% to 98.9%) and 91.7% (78.3% to 97.1%) for T21, T18, T13 and 45,X, respectively. The corresponding clinical specificities (95% CI) were 99.9% (99.8% to 100%), 99.9% (99.8% to 100%), 99.8% (99.8% to 99.9%) and 99.6% (98.9% to 99.8%). In this risk group, TMPS was assessed for T21, T18, T13 and 45,X in six, five, two and four studies. In pooled analyses (246 T21 cases, 112 T18 cases, 20 T13 cases and 4282 unaffected pregnancies), the clinical sensitivity (95% CI) of TMPS was 99.2% (96.8% to 99.8%), 98.2% (93.1% to 99.6%), 100% (83.9% to 100%) and 92.4% (84.1% to 96.5%) for T21, T18, T13 and 45,X respectively. The clinical specificities were above 100% for T21, T18 and T13 and 99.8% (98.3% to 100%) for 45,X. Indirect comparisons of MPSS and TMPS for T21, T18 and 45,X showed no statistical difference in clinical sensitivity, clinical specificity or both. Due to limited data, comparative meta-analysis of MPSS and TMPS was not possible for T13.We were unable to perform meta-analyses of gNIPT for 47,XXX, 47,XXY and 47,XYY because there were very few or no studies in one or more risk groups.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

These results show that MPSS and TMPS perform similarly in terms of clinical sensitivity and specificity for the detection of fetal T31, T18, T13 and sex chromosome aneuploidy (SCA). However, no study compared the two approaches head-to-head in the same cohort of patients. The accuracy of gNIPT as a prenatal screening test has been mainly evaluated as a second-tier screening test to identify pregnancies at very low risk of fetal aneuploidies (T21, T18 and T13), thus avoiding invasive procedures. Genomics-based non-invasive prenatal testing methods appear to be sensitive and highly specific for detection of fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13 in high-risk populations. There is paucity of data on the accuracy of gNIPT as a first-tier aneuploidy screening test in a population of unselected pregnant women. With respect to the replacement of invasive tests, the performance of gNIPT observed in this review is not sufficient to replace current invasive diagnostic tests.We conclude that given the current data on the performance of gNIPT, invasive fetal karyotyping is still the required diagnostic approach to confirm the presence of a chromosomal abnormality prior to making irreversible decisions relative to the pregnancy outcome. However, most of the gNIPT studies were prone to bias, especially in terms of the selection of participants.

Human placental growth hormone in normal and abnormal fetal growth

Human placental growth hormone (PGH), encoded by the growth hormone (GH) variant gene on chromosome 17, is expressed in the syncytiotrophoblast and extravillous cytotrophoblast layers of the human placenta. Its maternal serum levels increase throughout pregnancy, and gradually replaces the pulsatile secreted pituitary GH. PGH is also detectable in cord blood and in the amniotic fluid. This placental-origin hormone stimulates glyconeogenesis, lipolysis and anabolism in maternal organs, and influences fetal growth, placental development and maternal adaptation to pregnancy. The majority of these actions are performed indirectly by regulating maternal insulin-like growth factor-I levels, while the extravillous trophoblast involvement indicates a direct effect on placental development, as it stimulates trophoblast invasiveness and function via a potential combination of autocrine and paracrine mechanisms. The current review focuses on the role of PGH in fetal growth. In addition, the association of PGH alterations in maternal circulation and placental expression in pregnancy complications associated with abnormal fetal growth is briefly reviewed.

First trimester ultrasound tests alone or in combination with first trimester serum tests for Down's syndrome screening

BACKGROUND

Down's syndrome occurs when a person has three, rather than two copies of chromosome 21; or the specific area of chromosome 21 implicated in causing Down's syndrome. It is the commonest congenital cause of mental disability and also leads to numerous metabolic and structural problems. It can be life-threatening, or lead to considerable ill health, although some individuals have only mild problems and can lead relatively normal lives. Having a baby with Down's syndrome is likely to have a significant impact on family life.Non-invasive screening based on biochemical analysis of maternal serum or urine, or fetal ultrasound measurements, allows estimates of the risk of a pregnancy being affected and provides information to guide decisions about definitive testing.Before agreeing to screening tests, parents need to be fully informed about the risks, benefits and possible consequences of such a test. This includes subsequent choices for further tests they may face, and the implications of both false positive and false negative screening tests (i.e. invasive diagnostic testing, and the possibility that a miscarried fetus may be chromosomally normal). The decisions that may be faced by expectant parents inevitably engender a high level of anxiety at all stages of the screening process, and the outcomes of screening can be associated with considerable physical and psychological morbidity. No screening test can predict the severity of problems a person with Down's syndrome will have.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and compare the accuracy of first trimester ultrasound markers alone, and in combination with first trimester serum tests for the detection of Down's syndrome.

SEARCH METHODS

We carried out extensive literature searches including MEDLINE (1980 to 25 August 2011), Embase (1980 to 25 August 2011), BIOSIS via EDINA (1985 to 25 August 2011), CINAHL via OVID (1982 to 25 August 2011), and The Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (the Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 7). We checked reference lists and published review articles for additional potentially relevant studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies evaluating tests of first trimester ultrasound screening, alone or in combination with first trimester serum tests (up to 14 weeks' gestation) for Down's syndrome, compared with a reference standard, either chromosomal verification or macroscopic postnatal inspection.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were extracted as test positive/test negative results for Down's and non-Down's pregnancies allowing estimation of detection rates (sensitivity) and false positive rates (1-specificity). We performed quality assessment according to QUADAS criteria. We used hierarchical summary ROC meta-analytical methods to analyse test performance and compare test accuracy. Analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests was undertaken. We investigated the impact of maternal age on test performance in subgroup analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 126 studies (152 publications) involving 1,604,040 fetuses (including 8454 Down's syndrome cases). Studies were generally good quality, although differential verification was common with invasive testing of only high-risk pregnancies. Sixty test combinations were evaluated formed from combinations of 11 different ultrasound markers (nuchal translucency (NT), nasal bone, ductus venosus Doppler, maxillary bone length, fetal heart rate, aberrant right subclavian artery, frontomaxillary facial angle, presence of mitral gap, tricuspid regurgitation, tricuspid blood flow and iliac angle 90 degrees); 12 serum tests (inhibin A, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), free beta human chorionic gonadotrophin (ßhCG), total hCG, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), unconjugated oestriol (uE3), disintegrin and metalloprotease 12 (ADAM 12), placental growth factor (PlGF), placental growth hormone (PGH), invasive trophoblast antigen (ITA) (synonymous with hyperglycosylated hCG), growth hormone binding protein (GHBP) and placental protein 13 (PP13)); and maternal age. The most frequently evaluated serum markers in combination with ultrasound markers were PAPP-A and free ßhCG.Comparisons of the 10 most frequently evaluated test strategies showed that a combined NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy significantly outperformed ultrasound markers alone (with or without maternal age) except nasal bone, detecting about nine out of every 10 Down's syndrome pregnancies at a 5% false positive rate (FPR). In both direct and indirect comparisons, the combined NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy showed superior diagnostic accuracy to an NT and maternal age test strategy (P < 0.0001). Based on the indirect comparison of all available studies for the two tests, the sensitivity (95% confidence interval) estimated at a 5% FPR for the combined NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy (69 studies; 1,173,853 fetuses including 6010 with Down's syndrome) was 87% (86 to 89) and for the NT and maternal age test strategy (50 studies; 530,874 fetuses including 2701 Down's syndrome pregnancies) was 71% (66 to 75). Combinations of NT with other ultrasound markers, PAPP-A and free ßhCG were evaluated in one or two studies and showed sensitivities of more than 90% and specificities of more than 95%.High-risk populations (defined before screening was done, mainly due to advanced maternal age of 35 years or more, or previous pregnancies affected with Down's syndrome) showed lower detection rates compared to routine screening populations at a 5% FPR. Women who miscarried in the over 35 group were more likely to have been offered an invasive test to verify a negative screening results, whereas those under 35 were usually not offered invasive testing for a negative screening result. Pregnancy loss in women under 35 therefore leads to under-ascertainment of screening results, potentially missing a proportion of affected pregnancies and affecting test sensitivity. Conversely, for the NT, PAPP-A, free ßhCG and maternal age test strategy, detection rates and false positive rates increased with maternal age in the five studies that provided data separately for the subset of women aged 35 years or more.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Test strategies that combine ultrasound markers with serum markers, especially PAPP-A and free ßhCG, and maternal age were significantly better than those involving only ultrasound markers (with or without maternal age) except nasal bone. They detect about nine out of 10 Down's affected pregnancies for a fixed 5% FPR. Although the absence of nasal bone appeared to have a high diagnostic accuracy, only five out of 10 affected Down's pregnancies were detected at a 1% FPR.

First and second trimester serum tests with and without first trimester ultrasound tests for Down's syndrome screening

BACKGROUND

Down's syndrome occurs when a person has three copies of chromosome 21 (or the specific area of chromosome 21 implicated in causing Down's syndrome) rather than two. It is the commonest congenital cause of mental disability. Non-invasive screening based on biochemical analysis of maternal serum or urine, or fetal ultrasound measurements, allows estimates of the risk of a pregnancy being affected and provides information to guide decisions about definitive testing.  Before agreeing to screening tests, parents need to be fully informed about the risks, benefits and possible consequences of such a test. This includes subsequent choices for further tests they may face, and the implications of both false positive (i.e. invasive diagnostic testing, and the possibility that a miscarried fetus may be chromosomally normal) and false negative screening tests (i.e. a fetus with Down's syndrome will be missed). The decisions that may be faced by expectant parents inevitably engender a high level of anxiety at all stages of the screening process, and the outcomes of screening can be associated with considerable physical and psychological morbidity. No screening test can predict the severity of problems a person with Down's syndrome will have.

OBJECTIVES

To estimate and compare the accuracy of first and second trimester serum markers with and without first trimester ultrasound markers for the detection of Down's syndrome in the antenatal period, as combinations of markers.

SEARCH METHODS

We conducted a sensitive and comprehensive literature search of MEDLINE (1980 to 25 August 2011), Embase (1980 to 25 August 2011), BIOSIS via EDINA (1985 to 25 August 2011), CINAHL via OVID (1982 to 25 August 2011), the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (the Cochrane Library 25 August 2011), MEDION (25 August 2011), the Database of Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses in Laboratory Medicine (25 August 2011), the National Research Register (Archived 2007), and Health Services Research Projects in Progress database (25 August 2011). We did not apply a diagnostic test search filter. We did forward citation searching in ISI citation indices, Google Scholar and PubMed 'related articles'. We also searched reference lists of retrieved articles SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies evaluating tests of combining first and second trimester maternal serum markers in women up to 24 weeks of gestation for Down's syndrome, with or without first trimester ultrasound markers, compared with a reference standard, either chromosomal verification or macroscopic postnatal inspection.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Data were extracted as test positive/test negative results for Down's and non-Down's pregnancies allowing estimation of detection rates (sensitivity) and false positive rates (1-specificity). We performed quality assessment according to QUADAS criteria. We used hierarchical summary ROC meta-analytical methods to analyse test performance and compare test accuracy. Analysis of studies allowing direct comparison between tests was undertaken. We investigated the impact of maternal age on test performance in subgroup analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-two studies (reported in 25 publications) involving 228,615 pregnancies (including 1067 with Down's syndrome) were included. Studies were generally high quality, although differential verification was common with invasive testing of only high risk pregnancies. Ten studies made direct comparisons between tests. Thirty-two different test combinations were evaluated formed from combinations of eight different tests and maternal age; first trimester nuchal translucency (NT) and the serum markers AFP, uE3, total hCG, free βhCG, Inhibin A, PAPP-A and ADAM 12. We looked at tests combining first and second trimester markers with or without ultrasound as complete tests, and we also examined stepwise and contingent strategies.Meta-analysis of the six most frequently evaluated test combinations showed that a test strategy involving maternal age and a combination of first trimester NT and PAPP-A, and second trimester total hCG, uE3, AFP and Inhibin A significantly outperformed other test combinations that involved only one serum marker or NT in the first trimester, detecting about nine out of every 10 Down's syndrome pregnancies at a 5% false positive rate. However, the evidence was limited in terms of the number of studies evaluating this strategy, and we therefore cannot recommend one single screening strategy.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Tests involving first trimester ultrasound with first and second trimester serum markers in combination with maternal age are significantly better than those without ultrasound, or those evaluating first trimester ultrasound in combination with second trimester serum markers, without first trimester serum markers. We cannot make recommendations about a specific strategy on the basis of the small number of studies available.

A prospective clinical trial to compare the performance of dried blood spots prenatal screening for Down's syndrome with conventional non-invasive testing technology

To evaluate, side by side, the efficiency of dried blood spots (DBSs) against serum screening for Down's syndrome, and then, to construct a two-tier strategy by topping up the fetal cell-free DNA (cfDNA) secondary screening over the high-risk women marked by the primary blood testing to build a practical screening tactic to identify fetal Down's syndrome. One thousand eight hundred and thirty-seven low-risk Chinese women, with singleton pregnancy, were enrolled for the study. Alpha-fetoprotein and free beta human chorionic gonadotropin were measured for the serum as well as for the parallel DBS samples. Partial high-risk pregnant women identified by primary blood testing (n = 38) were also subject to the secondary cfDNA screening. Diagnostic amniocentesis was utilized to confirm the screening results. The true positive rate for Down's syndrome detection was 100% for both blood screening methods; however, the false-positive rate was 3.0% for DBS and 4.0% for serum screening, respectively. DBS correlated well with serum screening on Down's syndrome detection. Three out of 38 primary high-risk women displayed chromosomal abnormalities by cfDNA analysis, which were confirmed by amniocentesis. Either the true detection rate or the false-positive rate for Down's syndrome between DBS and the serum test is comparable. In addition, blood primary screening aligned with secondary cfDNA analysis, a "before and after" two-tier screening strategy, can massively decrease the false-positive rate, which, then, dramatically reduces the demand for invasive diagnostic operation. Impact statement Children born with Down's syndrome display a wide range of mental and physical disability. Currently, there is no effective treatment to ease the burden and anxiety of the Down's syndrome family and the surrounding society. This study is to evaluate the efficiency of dried blood spots against serum screening for Down's syndrome and to construct a two-tier strategy by topping up the fetal cell-free DNA (cfDNA) secondary screening over the high-risk women marked by the primary blood testing to build a practical screening tactic to identify fetal Down's syndrome. Results demonstrate that fetal cfDNA can significantly reduce false-positive rate close to none while distinguishing all true positives. Thus, we recommend that fetal cfDNA analysis to be utilized as a secondary screening tool atop of the primary blood protein screening to further minimize the capacity of undesirable invasive diagnostic operations.

Prognostic biomarkers to identify patients destined to develop severe Crohn's disease who may benefit from early biological therapy: protocol for a systematic review, meta-analysis and external validation

BACKGROUND

It is believed increasingly that patients with severe Crohn's disease are best treated early with biological therapy, which may ameliorate subsequent disease course and diminish long-term complications. However, we cannot predict currently which new presentations of Crohn's disease are destined to develop severe disease so treatment cannot be targeted to the most appropriate patients. Accordingly, via systematic review and meta-analysis we aim to identify if biomarkers of disease activity are able to predict development of severe disease.

METHODS/DESIGN

We will search the primary literature and conference proceedings for studies of biomarkers of all types including clinical, endoscopic, radiological, faecal, urinary, serological, genetic, and histological. Precise definition of "severe" disease is elusive so we will include sensitivity analysis to account for different definitions. We will use the CHARMS checklist to frame our question and to extract data. We will extract the study design, setting, participant characteristics, biomarker(s) investigated, and study outcomes. Bias will be assessed via the PROBAST tool. We will present the results using narrative and graphical methods. We will present the summary by meta-analysis where there are sufficient studies with reasonable homogeneity, using methods appropriate to the type of data extracted. Heterogeneity will be presented via Forest and ROC plots.

DISCUSSION

If this systematic review and meta-analysis identifies biomarkers that appear sufficiently predictive for subsequent severe disease course, we aim to combine them in a predictive model, followed by external validation using individual patient data. A predictive model able to identify new presentations of Crohn's disease destined to develop severe disease subsequently would have considerable clinical utility for patient management.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42016029363 .