Predicting Remission among Perinatal Women with Depression in Rural Pakistan: A Prognostic Model for Task-Shared Interventions in Primary Care Settings

Perinatal depression is highly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and is associated with adverse maternal and child health consequences. Task-shared psychological and psychosocial interventions for perinatal depression have demonstrated clinical and cost-effectiveness when delivered on a large scale. However, task-sharing approaches, especially in LMICs, require an effective mechanism, whereby clients who are not likely to benefit from such interventions are identified from the outset so that they can benefit from higher intensity treatments. Such a stratified approach can ensure that limited resources are utilized appropriately and effectively. The use of standardized and easy-to-implement algorithmic devices (e.g., nomograms) could help with such targeted dissemination of interventions. The present investigation posits a prognostic model and a nomogram to predict the prognosis of perinatal depression among women in rural Pakistan. The nomogram was developed to deliver stratified model of care in primary care settings by identifying those women who respond well to a non-specialist delivered intervention and those requiring specialist care. This secondary analysis utilized data from 903 pregnant women with depression who participated in a cluster randomized, controlled trial that tested the effectiveness of the Thinking Healthy Program in rural Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The participants were recruited from 40 union councils in two sub-districts of Rawalpindi and randomly assigned to intervention and enhanced usual care. Sixteen sessions of the THP intervention were delivered by trained community health workers to women with depression over pregnancy and the postnatal period. A trained assessment team used the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV current major depressive episode module to diagnose major depressive disorder at baseline and post-intervention. The intervention received by the participants emerged as the most significant predictor in the prognostic model. Among clinical factors, baseline severity of core-emotional symptoms emerged as an essential predictor, followed by atypical symptoms and insomnia. Higher severity of these symptoms was associated with a poorer prognosis. Other important predictors of a favorable prognosis included support from one’s mother or mother-in-law, financial empowerment, higher socioeconomic class, and living in a joint family system. This prognostic model yielded acceptable discrimination (c-statistic = 0.75) and calibration to aid in personalized delivery of the intervention.

Antidepressant treatment for postnatal depression

BACKGROUND

Depression is one of the most common morbidities of the postnatal period. It has been associated with adverse outcomes for women, children, the wider family and society as a whole. Treatment is with psychosocial interventions or antidepressant medication, or both. The aim of this review is to evaluate the effectiveness of different antidepressants and to compare their effectiveness with placebo, treatment as usual or other forms of treatment. This is an update of a review last published in 2014.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of antidepressant drugs in comparison with any other treatment (psychological, psychosocial, or pharmacological), placebo, or treatment as usual for postnatal depression.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched Cochrane Common Mental Disorders's Specialized Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO in May 2020. We also searched international trials registries and contacted experts in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of women with depression during the first 12 months postpartum that compared antidepressant treatment (alone or in combination with another treatment) with any other treatment, placebo or treatment as usual.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data from the study reports. We requested missing information from study authors wherever possible. We sought data to allow an intention-to-treat analysis. Where we identified sufficient comparable studies we pooled data and conducted random-effects meta-analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 11 RCTs (1016 women), the majority of which were from English-speaking, high-income countries; two were from middle-income countries. Women were recruited from a mix of community-based, primary care, maternity and outpatient settings. Most studies used selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), with treatment duration ranging from 4 to 12 weeks. Meta-analysis showed that there may be a benefit of SSRIs over placebo in response (55% versus 43%; pooled risk ratio (RR) 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97 to 1.66); remission (42% versus 27%; RR 1.54, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.41); and reduced depressive symptoms (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.30, 95% CI -0.55 to -0.05; 4 studies, 251 women), at 5 to 12 weeks' follow-up. We were unable to conduct meta-analysis for adverse events due to variation in the reporting of this between studies. There was no evidence of a difference between acceptability of SSRI and placebo (27% versus 27%; RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.64; 4 studies; 233 women). The certainty of all the evidence for SSRIs was low or very low due to the small number of included studies and a number of potential sources of bias, including high rates of attrition. There was insufficient evidence to assess the efficacy of SSRIs compared with other classes of antidepressants and of antidepressants compared with other pharmacological interventions, complementary medicines, psychological and psychosocial interventions or treatment as usual. A substantial proportion of women experienced adverse effects but there was no evidence of differences in the number of adverse effects between treatment groups in any of the studies. Data on effects on children, including breastfed infants, parenting, and the wider family were limited, although no adverse effects were noted.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There remains limited evidence regarding the effectiveness and safety of antidepressants in the management of postnatal depression, particularly for those with more severe depression. We found low-certainty evidence that SSRI antidepressants may be more effective in treating postnatal depression than placebo as measured by response and remission rates. However, the low certainty of the evidence suggests that further research is very likely to have an important impact on our effect estimate. There is a continued imperative to better understand whether, and for whom, antidepressants or other treatments are more effective for postnatal depression, and whether some antidepressants are more effective or better tolerated than others. In clinical practice, the findings of this review need to be contextualised by the extensive broader literature on antidepressants in the general population and perinatal clinical guidance, to inform an individualised risk-benefit clinical decision. Future RCTs should focus on larger samples, longer follow-up, comparisons with alternative treatment modalities and inclusion of child and parenting outcomes.