Modeling of subglacial hydrological development following rapid supraglacial lake drainage

Hydraulic transmissivity inferred from ice-sheet relaxation following Greenland supraglacial lake drainages

Surface meltwater reaching the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet transits through drainage networks, modulating the flow of the ice sheet. Dye and gas-tracing studies conducted in the western margin sector of the ice sheet have directly observed drainage efficiency to evolve seasonally along the drainage pathway. However, the local evolution of drainage systems further inland, where ice thicknesses exceed 1000 m, remains largely unknown. Here, we infer drainage system transmissivity based on surface uplift relaxation following rapid lake drainage events. Combining field observations of five lake drainage events with a mathematical model and laboratory experiments, we show that the surface uplift decreases exponentially with time, as the water in the blister formed beneath the drained lake permeates through the subglacial drainage system. This deflation obeys a universal relaxation law with a timescale that reveals hydraulic transmissivity and indicates a two-order-of-magnitude increase in subglacial transmissivity (from 0.8 ± 0.3 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\rm{m}}{{\rm{m}}}^{3}$$\end{document}mm3 to 215 ± 90.2 \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\rm{m}}{{\rm{m}}}^{3}$$\end{document}mm3) as the melt season progresses, suggesting significant changes in basal hydrology beneath the lakes driven by seasonal meltwater input.

Hydraulic transmissivity under the 1km-thick Greenland Ice Sheet was inferred by ice-sheet uplift relaxation after rapid lake drainage events. A two-order-of-magnitude increase in hydraulic transmissivity was found throughout the melt season.

Automatic Extraction of Supraglacial Lakes in Southwest Greenland during the 2014–2018 Melt Seasons Based on Convolutional Neural Network

The mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has implications for global sea level rise, and surface meltwater is an important factor that affects the mass balance. Supraglacial lakes (SGLs), which are representative and identifiable hydrologic features of surface meltwater on GrIS, are a means of assessing surface ablation temporally and spatially. In this study, we have developed a robust method to automatically extract SGLs by testing the widely distributed SGLs area—in southwest Greenland (68°00′ N–70°00′ N, 48°00′ W–51°30′ W), and documented their dynamics from 2014 to 2018 using Landsat 8 OLI images. This method identifies water using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and then extracts SGLs with morphological and geometrical algorithms. CNN combines spectral and spatial features and shows better water identification results than the widely used adaptive thresholding method (Otsu), and two machine learning methods (Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM)). Our results show that the total SGLs area varied between 158 and 393 km2 during 2014 to 2018; the area increased from 2014 to 2015, then decreased and reached the lowest point (158.73 km2) in 2018, when the most limited surface melting was observed. SGLs were most active during the melt season in 2015 with a quantity of 700 and a total area of 393.36 km2. The largest individual lake developed in 2016, with an area of 9.30 km2. As for the elevation, SGLs were most active in the area, with the elevation ranging from 1000 to 1500 m above sea level, and SGLs in 2016 were distributed at higher elevations than in other years. Our work proposes a method to extract SGLs accurately and efficiently. More importantly, this study is expected to provide data support to other studies monitoring the surface hydrological system and mass balance of the GrIS.

Supraglacial lake drainage at a fast-flowing Greenlandic outlet glacier

Supraglacial lake drainage events influence Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics on hourly to interannual timescales. However, direct observations are rare, and, to date, no in situ studies exist from fast-flowing sectors of the ice sheet. Here, we present observations of a rapid lake drainage event at Store Glacier, west Greenland, in 2018. The drainage event transported 4.8 × 10⁶ m³ of meltwater to the glacier bed in ∼5 h, reducing the lake to a third of its original volume. During drainage, the local ice surface rose by 0.55 m, and surface velocity increased from 2.0 m⋅d^-1 to 5.3 m⋅d^-1 Dynamic responses were greatest ∼4 km downstream from the lake, which we interpret as an area of transient water storage constrained by basal topography. Drainage initiated, without any precursory trigger, when the lake expanded and reactivated a preexisting fracture that had been responsible for a drainage event 1 y earlier. Since formation, this fracture had advected ∼500 m from the lake's deepest point, meaning the lake did not fully drain. Partial drainage events have previously been assumed to occur slowly via lake overtopping, with a comparatively small dynamic influence. In contrast, our findings show that partial drainage events can be caused by hydrofracture, producing new hydrological connections that continue to concentrate the supply of surface meltwater to the bed of the ice sheet throughout the melt season. Our findings therefore indicate that the quantity and resultant dynamic influence of rapid lake drainages are likely being underestimated.

Cascading lake drainage on the Greenland Ice Sheet triggered by tensile shock and fracture

Supraglacial lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet are expanding inland, but the impact on ice flow is equivocal because interior surface conditions may preclude the transfer of surface water to the bed. Here we use a well-constrained 3D model to demonstrate that supraglacial lakes in Greenland drain when tensile-stress perturbations propagate fractures in areas where fractures are normally absent or closed. These melt-induced perturbations escalate when lakes as far as 80 km apart form expansive networks and drain in rapid succession. The result is a tensile shock that establishes new surface-to-bed hydraulic pathways in areas where crevasses transiently open. We show evidence for open crevasses 135 km inland from the ice margin, which is much farther inland than previously considered possible. We hypothesise that inland expansion of lakes will deliver water and heat to isolated regions of the ice sheet’s interior where the impact on ice flow is potentially large.

Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet transfer water to the bed when they drain, but the impact is unknown. Here, the authors use a 3D model to show that lakes drain when fractures form, causing a chain reaction in which cascading lake drainages extend inland and deliver water to previously isolated regions of the bed.

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms.

Greenland subglacial drainage evolution regulated by weakly connected regions of the bed

Penetration of surface meltwater to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet each summer causes an initial increase in ice speed due to elevated basal water pressure, followed by slowdown in late summer that continues into fall and winter. While this seasonal pattern is commonly explained by an evolution of the subglacial drainage system from an inefficient distributed to efficient channelized configuration, mounting evidence indicates that subglacial channels are unable to explain important aspects of hydrodynamic coupling in late summer and fall. Here we use numerical models of subglacial drainage and ice flow to show that limited, gradual leakage of water and lowering of water pressure in weakly connected regions of the bed can explain the dominant features in late and post melt season ice dynamics. These results suggest that a third weakly connected drainage component should be included in the conceptual model of subglacial hydrology.

Surface meltwater draining to the bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet each summer causes ice flow changes inconsistent with the prevailing theory of channelizing subglacial drainage. Here, the authors show this is caused by limited, gradual leakage of water from previously ignored weakly connected regions of the bed.