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Meng L, Liu J, Tarasick DW, Randel WJ, Steiner AK, Wilhelmsen H, Wang L, Haimberger L. Continuous rise of the tropopause in the Northern Hemisphere over 1980-2020. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2021; 7:eabi8065. [PMID: 34739322 PMCID: PMC8570593 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abi8065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Tropopause height (H) is a sensitive diagnostic for anthropogenic climate change. Previous studies showed increases in H over 1980–2000 but were inconsistent in projecting H trends after 2000. While H generally responds to temperature changes in the troposphere and stratosphere, the relative importance of these two contributions is uncertain. Here, we use radiosonde balloon observations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over 20°N to 80°N to reveal a continuous rise of H over 1980–2020. Over 2001–2020, H increases at 50 to 60 m/decade, which is comparable to the trend over 1980–2000. The GPS radio occultation measurements from satellites and homogenized radiosonde records are in good agreement with those results. The continuous rise of the tropopause in the NH after 2000 results primarily from tropospheric warming. A large trend in H remains after major natural forcings for H are removed, providing further observational evidence for anthropogenic climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lingyun Meng
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
- International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jane Liu
- Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, China
| | - David W. Tarasick
- Air Quality Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
| | | | - Andrea K. Steiner
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- FWF-DK Climate Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Hallgeir Wilhelmsen
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
- FWF-DK Climate Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Lei Wang
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute, Shanghai, China
- Big Data Institute for Carbon Emission and Environmental Pollution, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Leopold Haimberger
- Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Wien, Austria
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2
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Santer BD, Fyfe JC, Solomon S, Painter JF, Bonfils C, Pallotta G, Zelinka MD. Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:19821-19827. [PMID: 31527233 PMCID: PMC6778254 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1904586116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Large initial condition ensembles of a climate model simulation provide many different realizations of internal variability noise superimposed on an externally forced signal. They have been used to estimate signal emergence time at individual grid points, but are rarely employed to identify global fingerprints of human influence. Here we analyze 50- and 40-member ensembles performed with 2 climate models; each was run with combined human and natural forcings. We apply a pattern-based method to determine signal detection time [Formula: see text] in individual ensemble members. Distributions of [Formula: see text] are characterized by the median [Formula: see text] and range [Formula: see text], computed for tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures over 1979 to 2018. Lower stratospheric cooling-primarily caused by ozone depletion-yields [Formula: see text] values between 1994 and 1996, depending on model ensemble, domain (global or hemispheric), and type of noise data. For greenhouse-gas-driven tropospheric warming, larger noise and slower recovery from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption lead to later signal detection (between 1997 and 2003). The stochastic uncertainty [Formula: see text] is greater for tropospheric warming (8 to 15 y) than for stratospheric cooling (1 to 3 y). In the ensemble generated by a high climate sensitivity model with low anthropogenic aerosol forcing, simulated tropospheric warming is larger than observed; detection times for tropospheric warming signals in satellite data are within [Formula: see text] ranges in 60% of all cases. The corresponding number is 88% for the second ensemble, which was produced by a model with even higher climate sensitivity but with large aerosol-induced cooling. Whether the latter result is physically plausible will require concerted efforts to reduce significant uncertainties in aerosol forcing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin D Santer
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550;
| | - John C Fyfe
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
| | - Susan Solomon
- Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139
| | - Jeffrey F Painter
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550
| | - Céline Bonfils
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550
| | - Giuliana Pallotta
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550
| | - Mark D Zelinka
- Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550
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3
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Remsberg E. Observation and Attribution of Temperature Trends Near the Stratopause From HALOE. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH. ATMOSPHERES : JGR 2019; 124:6600-6611. [PMID: 31632892 PMCID: PMC6800683 DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2019] [Accepted: 05/03/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
This study considers time series of temperature versus pressure, T(p), from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) across the stratopause region, where the effects of radiative forcings from the greenhouse gases (CO2 and H2O) and from ozone are most pronounced. Trend analyses of HALOE T(p) values for 1993-2005 are for six levels from 2.0 to 0.3 hPa with a vertical resolution of about 4 km and for eight latitude zones from 65°S to 65°N. The analyses account for the forcing effects from the 11-yr solar cycle. HALOE trends at 2.0 hPa are of the order of -1.0 K/decade across the tropics and subtropics but then become smaller (-0.5 K/decade) at the middle latitudes. Near-global T(p) trends are of order -0.5 K/decade but have a minimum of -0.2 K/decade at 1.0 hPa; they are clearly negative in the southern but slightly positive in the northern hemisphere. The combined radiative forcings from CO2, H2O, and ozone vary between -0.4 and -0.7 K/decade for 1993-2005 and are hemispherically symmetric. The HALOE temperature trend and total radiative cooling profiles differ from those reported from observations and calculations for 1980-2000, mainly because the ozone trends changed from clearly negative in the 1980s through mid-1990s to slightly positive during the time of HALOE. Trends at low latitudes for the tracer, methane (CH4), increase from 2% to 4%/decade from 50 to 10 hPa and then to ~6%/decade by 5 hPa. Analyses of time series of CH4 across the stratopause reveal subseasonal scale variability within the northern hemisphere that reduces the significance of the T(p) trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellis Remsberg
- Science Directorate, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
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4
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Klotzbach P, Abhik S, Hendon HH, Bell M, Lucas C, G Marshall A, Oliver ECJ. On the emerging relationship between the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial oscillation and the Madden-Julian oscillation. Sci Rep 2019; 9:2981. [PMID: 30814656 PMCID: PMC6393487 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-40034-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2018] [Accepted: 02/07/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
A strong relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric winds and the amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during the boreal winter has recently been uncovered using observational data from the mid-1970s to the present. When the QBO is in its easterly phase in the lower stratosphere, it favors stronger MJO activity during boreal winter, while the MJO tends to be weaker during the westerly phase of the QBO. Here we show using reconstructed indices of the MJO and QBO back to 1905 that the relationship between enhanced boreal winter MJO activity and the easterly phase of the QBO has only emerged since the early 1980s. The emergence of this relationship coincides with the recent cooling trend in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the warming trend in the equatorial upper troposphere, which appears to have sensitized MJO convective activity to QBO-induced changes in static stability near the tropopause. Climate change is thus suggested to have played a role in promoting coupling between the MJO and the QBO.
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Affiliation(s)
- P Klotzbach
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - S Abhik
- School of Earth, Atmosphere & Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Australia
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
| | - H H Hendon
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
| | - M Bell
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - C Lucas
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | - E C J Oliver
- Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
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White I, Garfinkel CI, Gerber EP, Jucker M, Aquila V, Oman LD. The Downward Influence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings: Association with Tropospheric Precursors. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2019; 32:85-108. [PMID: 32831474 PMCID: PMC7440399 DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0053.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Tropospheric features preceding sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) are identified using a large compendium of events obtained from a chemistry-climate model. In agreement with recent observational studies, it is found that approximately one-third of SSWs are preceded by extreme episodes of wave activity in the lower troposphere. The relationship becomes stronger in the lower stratosphere, where ~60% of SSWs are preceded by extreme wave activity at 100 hPa. Additional analysis characterizes events that do or do not appear to subsequently impact the troposphere, referred to as downward and non-downward propagating SSWs, respectively. On average, tropospheric wave activity is larger preceding downward-propagating SSWs compared to non-downward propagating events, and associated in particular with a doubly strengthened Siberian high. Of the SSWs that were preceded by extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity, ~2/3 propagated down to the troposphere, and hence the presence of extreme lower-tropospheric wave activity can only be used probabilistically to predict a slight increase or decrease at the onset, of the likelihood of tropospheric impacts to follow. However, a large number of downward and non-downward propagating SSWs must be considered (>35), before the difference becomes statistically significant. The precursors are also robust upon comparison with composites consisting of randomly selected tropospheric northern annular mode (NAM) events. The downward influence and precursors to split and displacement events are also examined. It is found that anomalous upward wave-1 fluxes precede both cases. Splits exhibit a near instantaneous, barotropic response in the stratosphere and troposphere, while displacements have a stronger long-term influence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ian White
- The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Institute of Earth Sciences, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Chaim I Garfinkel
- The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Institute of Earth Sciences, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Edwin P Gerber
- Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, New York
| | - Martin Jucker
- Climate Change zResearch Centre, University of New South Wales, Parkville, Sydney, Australia
| | - Valentina Aquila
- Department of Environmental Science, American University, Washington, D.C
| | - Luke D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
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6
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Ghosh S, Gumber S, Varotsos C. A sensitivity study of diffusional mass transfer of gases in tropical storm hydrometeors. THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 2018; 134:1083-1100. [DOI: 10.1007/s00704-017-2321-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
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7
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Maycock AC, Randel WJ, Steiner AK, Karpechko AY, Cristy J, Saunders R, Thompson DWJ, Zou CZ, Chrysanthou A, Abraham NL, Akiyoshi H, Archibald AT, Butchart N, Chipperfield M, Dameris M, Deushi M, Dhomse S, Di Genova G, Jöckel P, Kinnison DE, Kirner O, Ladstädter F, Michou M, Morgenstern O, Connor FO, Oman L, Pitari G, Plummer DA, Revell LE, Rozanov E, Stenke A, Visioni D, Yamashita Y, Zeng G. Revisiting the mystery of recent stratospheric temperature trends. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2018; 45:9919-9933. [PMID: 32742043 PMCID: PMC7394187 DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2018] [Accepted: 05/15/2018] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979-2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are compared with recently updated and extended satellite observations. The multi-model mean global temperature trends over 1979- 2005 are -0.88 ± 0.23, -0.70 ± 0.16, and -0.50 ± 0.12 K decade-1 for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40-50 km), 2 (~35-45 km), and 1 (~25-35 km), respectively. These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed satellite datasets. In the lower stratosphere, the multi-model mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13-22 km) is -0.25 ± 0.12 K decade-1 over 1979-2005, consistent with estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The simulated stratospheric temperature trends in CCMI models over 1979-2005 agree with the previous generation of chemistry-climate models. The models and an extended satellite dataset of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998-2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979-1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slow-down of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. In summary, the results show much better consistency between simulated and satellite observed stratospheric temperature trends than was reported by Thompson et al. (2012) for the previous versions of the SSU record and chemistry-climate models. The improved agreement mainly comes from updates to the satellite records; the range of simulated trends is comparable to the previous generation of models.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - William J. Randel
- Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations and Modeling
Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - Andrea K. Steiner
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of
Graz, Graz, Austria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and
Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria
| | | | - John Cristy
- Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in
Huntsville, USA
| | | | | | - Cheng-Zhi Zou
- National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration,
Washington, USA
| | | | - N. Luke Abraham
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, U.K
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, U.K
| | - Hiderahu Akiyoshi
- Center for Global Environmental Research, National
Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Alex T. Archibald
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge,
Cambridge, U.K
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science, U.K
| | | | | | - Martin Dameris
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR),
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | | | - Sandip Dhomse
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds,
UK
| | | | - Patrick Jöckel
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR),
Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
| | - Douglas E. Kinnison
- Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations and Modeling
Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
| | - Oliver Kirner
- Steinbuch Centre for Computing, Karlsruhe Institute of
Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
| | - Florian Ladstädter
- Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of
Graz, Graz, Austria
- Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and
Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Austria
| | | | - Olaf Morgenstern
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
(NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
| | | | - Luke Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA
| | - Giovanni Pitari
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences,
Università dell’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
| | - David A. Plummer
- Climate Research Branch, Environment and Climate Change
Canada, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Laura E. Revell
- Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH
Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of
Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Eugene Rozanov
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH
Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World
Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
| | - Andrea Stenke
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH
Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Daniele Visioni
- Center of Excellence CETEMPS, Università
dell’Aquila, Italy
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences,
Università dell’Aquila, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
| | | | - Guang Zeng
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
(NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand
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Garfinkel CI, Gordon A, Oman LD, Li F, Davis S, Pawson S. Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2018; 18:4597-4615. [PMID: 30008736 PMCID: PMC6041696 DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-4597-2018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaim I Garfinkel
- The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Amit Gordon
- The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Luke D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Feng Li
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
| | - Sean Davis
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Steven Pawson
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
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9
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Garfinkel CI, Gordon A, Oman LD, Li F, Davis S, Pawson S. Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 2018; 18:4597-4615. [PMID: 30008736 DOI: 10.5194/acp-2017-520] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chaim I Garfinkel
- The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Amit Gordon
- The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Luke D Oman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
| | - Feng Li
- Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA
| | - Sean Davis
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Steven Pawson
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
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