Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes

Cloud, Aerosol, and Radiative Properties Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

This study examines the atmospheric properties of weather states (WSs) derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project over the Western North Atlantic Ocean. In particular, radiation and aerosol data corresponding to two sites in the study domain, Pennsylvania State University and Bermuda, were examined to characterize the atmospheric properties of the various satellite-derived WSs. At both sites, the fair weather WS was most prevalent, followed by the cirrus WS. Differences in the seasonality of the various WSs were observed at the two sites. Fractional sky cover and effective shortwave cloud transmissivity derived from ground-based radiation measurements were able to capture differences among the satellite-derived WSs. Speciated aerosol optical thicknesses (AOT) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 were used to investigate potential differences in aerosol properties among the WSs. The clear sky WS exhibited below-average seasonal values of AOT at both sites year-round, as well as relatively high rates of occurrence with low AOT events. In addition, the clear sky WS showed above-average contributions from dust and black carbon to the total AOT year-round. Finally, transitions between various WSs were examined under low, high, and midrange AOT conditions. The most common pathway was for the WSs to remain in the same state after a 3 h interval. Some WSs, such as mid latitude storms, deep convection, middle top, and shallow cumulus, were more prevalent as ending states under high AOT conditions. This work motivates examining differences in aerosol properties between WSs in other regions.

Large-scale Characteristics of Tropical Convective Systems through the Prism of Cloud Regime

We employ the Cloud Regime (CR) concept to identify large-scale tropical convective systems and investigate their characteristics in terms of organization and precipitation. The tropical CRs (TCRs) are derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Cloud Optical Thickness (COT) and Cloud Top Pressure (CTP) two-dimensional joint histograms. We focus on the TCRs that have relatively low CTPs and high COTs, as well as heavy precipitation, namely TCR1 (convective core-dominant), TCR2 (various high clouds), and TCR3 (anvils). The horizontal size of aggregates of TCR1, 2, or 3 occurrences (TCR123) is identified as the number of contiguous 1°×1° grid cells occupied by either of these three TCRs. For the small to intermediate size aggregates (TCR123 size 20 to 160 one-degree grid cells), there is large variability in the fraction of the aggregate each TCR occupies, but generally TCR2 exhibits the highest fraction. As the total system size grows, the variability shrinks and for the largest systems ratios eventually converge to 0.3, 0.2, and 0.5 for TCR1, 2, and 3, respectively. The mean precipitation of convective core-rich TCR1 is generally high for the systems of intermediate size (80-160 one-degree grid cells), but with the highest mean coming from smaller systems of 20-40 grid cells. For the largest systems, their mean precipitation in areas containing cores (TCR1) are relatively low with suppressed variation. The mean precipitation rates of TCR2 and TCR3 in a TCR123 aggregate tend to be stronger when accompanying TCR1 mean precipitation rate is also high.

Bounding Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m-2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m-2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds.

Contrasting the co-variability of daytime cloud and precipitation over tropical land and ocean

The co-variability of cloud and precipitation in the extended tropics (35°N-35°S) is investigated using contemporaneous data sets for a 13-year period. The goal is to quantify potential relationships between cloud type fractions and precipitation events of particular strength. Particular attention is paid to whether the relationships exhibit different characteristics over tropical land and ocean. A primary analysis metric is the correlation coefficient between fractions of individual cloud types and frequencies within precipitation histogram bins that have been matched in time and space. The cloud type fractions are derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) joint histograms of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness in 1°grid cells, and the precipitation frequencies come from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data set aggregated to the same grid. It is found that the strongest coupling (positive correlation) between clouds and precipitation occurs over ocean for cumulonimbus clouds and the heaviest rainfall. While the same cloud type and rainfall bin are also best correlated over land compared to other combinations, the correlation magnitude is weaker than over ocean. The difference is attributed to the greater size of convective systems over ocean. It is also found that both over ocean and land the anti-correlation of strong precipitation with "weak" (i.e., thin and/or low) cloud types is of greater absolute strength than positive correlations between weak cloud types and weak precipitation. Cloud type co-occurrence relationships explain some of the cloud-precipitation anti-correlations. Weak correlations between weaker rainfall and clouds indicate poor predictability for precipitation when cloud types are known, and this is even more true over land than over ocean.

Strong constraints on aerosol-cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions

Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets-consistent with expectations-but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around -0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response.

New Insights about Cloud Vertical Structure from CloudSat and CALIPSO observations

Active cloud observations from A-Train's CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites offer new opportunities to examine the vertical structure of hydrometeor layers. We use the 2B-CLDCLASS-LIDAR merged CloudSat-CALIPSO product to examine global aspects of hydrometeor vertical stratification. We group the data into major Cloud Vertical Structure (CVS) classes based on our interpretation of how clouds in three standard atmospheric layers overlap, and provide their global frequency of occurrence. The two most frequent CVS classes are single-layer (per our definition) low and high clouds which represent ~53% of cloudy skies, followed by high clouds overlying low clouds, and vertically extensive clouds that occupy near-contiguously a large portion of the troposphere. The prevalence of these configurations changes seasonally and geographically, between daytime and nighttime, and between continents and oceans. The radiative effects of the CVS classes reveal the major radiative warmers and coolers from the perspective of the planet as a whole, the surface, and the atmosphere. Single-layer low clouds dominate planetary and atmospheric cooling, and thermal infrared surface warming. We also investigate the consistency between passive and active views of clouds by providing the CVS breakdowns of MODIS cloud regimes for spatiotemporally coincident MODIS-Aqua (also on the A-Train) and CloudSat-CALIPSO daytime observations. When the analysis is expanded for a more in-depth look at the most heterogeneous of the MODIS cloud regimes, it ultimately confirms previous interpretations of their makeup that did not have the benefit of collocated active observations.

Using MODIS Cloud Regimes to Sort Diagnostic Signals of Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions

Coincident multi-year measurements of aerosol, cloud, precipitation and radiation at near-global scales are analyzed to diagnose their apparent relationships as suggestive of interactions previously proposed based on theoretical, observational, and model constructs. Specifically, we examine whether differences in aerosol loading in separate observations go along with consistently different precipitation, cloud properties, and cloud radiative effects. Our analysis uses a cloud regime (CR) framework to dissect and sort the results. The CRs come from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor and are defined as distinct groups of cloud systems with similar co-variations of cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. Aerosol optical depth used as proxy for aerosol loading comes from two sources, MODIS observations, and the MERRA-2 re-analysis, and its variability is defined with respect to local seasonal climatologies. The choice of aerosol dataset impacts our results substantially. We also find that the responses of the marine and continental component of a CR are frequently quite disparate. Overall, CRs dominated by warm clouds tend to exhibit less ambiguous signals, but also have more uncertainty with regard to precipitation changes. Finally, we find weak, but occasionally systematic co-variations of select meteorological indicators and aerosol, which serves as a sober reminder that ascribing changes in cloud and cloud-affected variables solely to aerosol variations is precarious.