Spatial and temporal Antarctic Ice Sheet mass trends, glacio-isostatic adjustment, and surface processes from a joint inversion of satellite altimeter, gravity, and GPS data

Partitioning the drivers of Antarctic glacier mass balance (2003-2020) using satellite observations and a regional climate model

We investigate the mass changes of Antarctic glaciers from 2003 to 2020, partitioning them into the contributions of surface mass balance (SMB) and ice discharge, using high-resolution ice mass change estimates derived from the combination of two different types of satellite observations (gravimetry and altimetry) and outputs from a regional climate model. Our analysis indicates that changes in ice discharge have played a dominant role in ongoing ice mass trends and their accelerations, especially in glaciers near the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in West Antarctica. In particular, mass losses of the Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers have been mostly (>90%) controlled by ice discharge, while the contribution of SMB has been relatively minor. In East Antarctica, SMB accounts for significant portions (>50%) of ice mass imbalances of glaciers in e.g., Dronning Maud Land and Wilkes Land. Ice discharge has also played a notable role in overall mass gain in the region. While our ice discharge estimates agree well with previous estimates from satellite imagery in West Antarctica, notable differences are found in glaciers of East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. This highlights the need for more observations and improved numerical models to refine these estimates.

Inter-decadal climate variability induces differential ice response along Pacific-facing West Antarctica

West Antarctica has experienced dramatic ice losses contributing to global sea-level rise in recent decades, particularly from Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Although these ice losses manifest an ongoing Marine Ice Sheet Instability, projections of their future rate are confounded by limited observations along West Antarctica's coastal perimeter with respect to how the pace of retreat can be modulated by variations in climate forcing. Here, we derive a comprehensive, 12-year record of glacier retreat around West Antarctica's Pacific-facing margin and compare this dataset to contemporaneous estimates of ice flow, mass loss, the state of the Southern Ocean and the atmosphere. Between 2003 and 2015, rates of glacier retreat and acceleration were extensive along the Bellingshausen Sea coastline, but slowed along the Amundsen Sea. We attribute this to an interdecadal suppression of westerly winds in the Amundsen Sea, which reduced warm water inflow to the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Our results provide direct observations that the pace, magnitude and extent of ice destabilization around West Antarctica vary by location, with the Amundsen Sea response most sensitive to interdecadal atmosphere-ocean variability. Thus, model projections accounting for regionally resolved ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions will be important for predicting accurately the short-term evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Sunlight-driven nitrate loss records Antarctic surface mass balance

Standard proxies for reconstructing surface mass balance (SMB) in Antarctic ice cores are often inaccurate or coarsely resolved when applied to more complicated environments away from dome summits. Here, we propose an alternative SMB proxy based on photolytic fractionation of nitrogen isotopes in nitrate observed at 114 sites throughout East Antarctica. Applying this proxy approach to nitrate in a shallow core drilled at a moderate SMB site (Aurora Basin North), we reconstruct 700 years of SMB changes that agree well with changes estimated from ice core density and upstream surface topography. For the under-sampled transition zones between dome summits and the coast, we show that this proxy can provide past and present SMB values that reflect the immediate local environment and are derived independently from existing techniques.

Antarctic Basal Water Storage Variation Inferred from Multi-Source Satellite Observation and Relevant Models

Antarctic basal water storage variation (BWSV) refers to mass changes of basal water beneath the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Identifying these variations is critical for understanding Antarctic basal hydrology variations and basal heat conduction, yet they are rarely accessible due to a lack of direct observation. This paper proposes a layered gravity density forward/inversion iteration method to investigate Antarctic BWSV based on multi-source satellite observations and relevant models. During 2003–2009, BWSV increased at an average rate of 43 ± 23 Gt/yr, which accounts for 29% of the previously documented total mass loss rate (−76 ± 20 Gt/yr) of AIS. Major uncertainty arises from satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry, the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model, and the modelled basal melting rate. We find that increases in basal water mainly occurred in regions with widespread active subglacial lakes, such as the Rockefeller Plateau, Siple Coast, Institute Ice Stream regions, and marginal regions of East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which indicates the increased water storage in these active subglacial lakes, despite the frequent water drainage events. The Amundsen Sea coast experienced a significant loss during the same period, which is attributed to the basal meltwater discharging into the Amundsen Sea through basal channels.

Widespread increase in dynamic imbalance in the Getz region of Antarctica from 1994 to 2018

The Getz region of West Antarctica is losing ice at an increasing rate; however, the forcing mechanisms remain unclear. Here we use satellite observations and an ice sheet model to measure the change in ice speed and mass balance of the drainage basin over the last 25-years. Our results show a mean increase in speed of 23.8 % between 1994 and 2018, with three glaciers accelerating by over 44 %. Speedup across the Getz basin is linear, with speedup and thinning directly correlated confirming the presence of dynamic imbalance. Since 1994, 315 Gt of ice has been lost contributing 0.9 ± 0.6 mm global mean sea level, with increased loss since 2010 caused by a snowfall reduction. Overall, dynamic imbalance accounts for two thirds of the mass loss from this region of West Antarctica over the past 25-years, with a longer-term response to ocean forcing the likely driving mechanism.

Victoria Land, Antarctica: An Improved Geodynamic Interpretation Based on the Strain Rate Field of the Current Crustal Motion and Moho Depth Model

In Antarctica, the severe climatic conditions and the thick ice sheet that covers the largest and most internal part of the continent make it particularly difficult to systematically carry out geophysical and geodetic observations on a continental scale. It prevents the comprehensive understanding of both the onshore and offshore geology as well as the relationship between the inner part of East Antarctica (EA) and the coastal sector of Victoria Land (VL). With the aim to reduce this gap, in this paper multiple geophysical dataset collected since the 1980s in Antarctica by Programma Nazionale di Ricerche in Antartide (PNRA) were integrated with geodetic observations. In particular, the analyzed data includes: (i) Geodetic time series from Trans Antarctic Mountains DEFormation (TAMDEF), and Victoria Land Network for DEFormation control (VLNDEF) GNSS stations installed in Victoria Land; (ii) the integration of on-shore (ground points data and airborne) gravity measurements in Victoria Land and marine gravity surveys performed in the Ross Sea and the narrow strip of Southern Ocean facing the coasts of northern Victoria Land. Gravity data modelling has improved the knowledge of the Moho depth of VL and surrounding the offshore areas. By the integration of geodetic and gravitational (or gravity) potential results it was possible to better constrain/identify four geodynamic blocks characterized by homogeneous geophysical signature: the Southern Ocean to the N, the Ross Sea to the E, the Wilkes Basin to the W, and VL in between. The last block is characterized by a small but significant clockwise rotation relative to East Antarctica. The presence of a N-S to NNW-SSE 1-km step in the Moho in correspondence of the Rennick Geodynamic Belt confirms the existence of this crustal scale discontinuity, possibly representing the tectonic boundary between East Antarctica and the northern part of VL block, as previously proposed by some geological studies.

Observing and Modeling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance

Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5-30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller-scale SMB processes.

A Joint Inversion Estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Balance Using Multi-Geodetic Data Sets

Many recent mass balance estimates using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and satellite altimetry (including two kinds of sensors of radar and laser) show that the ice mass of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is in overall decline. However, there are still large differences among previously published estimates of the total mass change, even in the same observed periods. The considerable error sources mainly arise from the forward models (e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment [GIA] and firn compaction) that may be uncertain but indispensable to simulate some processes not directly measured or obtained by these observations. To minimize the use of these forward models, we estimate the mass change of ice sheet and present-day GIA using multi-geodetic observations, including GRACE and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), as well as Global Positioning System (GPS), by an improved method of joint inversion estimate (JIE), which enables us to solve simultaneously for the Antarctic GIA and ice mass trends. The GIA uplift rates generated from our JIE method show a good agreement with the elastic-corrected GPS uplift rates, and the total GIA-induced mass change estimate for the AIS is 54 ± 27 Gt/yr, which is in line with many recent GPS calibrated GIA estimates. Our GIA result displays the presence of significant uplift rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, where strong uplift has been observed by GPS. Over the period February 2003 to October 2009, the entire AIS changed in mass by −84 ± 31 Gt/yr (West Antarctica: −69 ± 24, East Antarctica: 12 ± 16 and the Antarctic Peninsula: −27 ± 8), greater than the GRACE-only estimates obtained from three Mascon solutions (CSR: −50 ± 30, JPL: −71 ± 30, and GSFC: −51 ± 33 Gt/yr) for the same period. This may imply that single GRACE data tend to underestimate ice mass loss due to the signal leakage and attenuation errors of ice discharge are often worse than that of surface mass balance over the AIS.

Assessment of Sea Level Rise at West Coast of Portugal Mainland and Its Projection for the 21st Century

Based on the updated relative sea level rise rates, 21st-century projections are made for the west coast of Portugal Mainland. The mean sea level from Cascais tide gauge and North Atlantic satellite altimetry data have been analyzed. Through bootstrapping linear regression and polynomial adjustments, mean sea level time series were used to calculate different empirical projections for sea level rise, by estimating the initial velocity and its corresponding acceleration. The results are consistent with an accelerated sea level rise, showing evidence of a faster rise than previous century estimates. Based on different numerical methods of second order polynomial fitting, it is possible to build a set of projection models of relative sea level rise. Applying the same methods to regional sea level anomaly from satellite altimetry, additional projections are also built with good consistency. Both data sets, tide gauge and satellite altimetry data, enabled the development of an ensemble of projection models. The relative sea level rise projections are crucial for national coastal planning and management since extreme sea level scenarios can potentially cause erosion and flooding. Based on absolute vertical velocities obtained by integrating global sea level models, neo-tectonic studies, and permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) station time series, it is possible to transform relative into absolute sea level rise scenarios, and vice-versa, allowing the generation of absolute sea level rise projection curves and its comparison with already established global projections. The sea level rise observed at the Cascais tide gauge has always shown a significant correlation with global sea level rise observations, evidencing relatively low rates of vertical land velocity and residual synoptic regional dynamic effects. An ensemble of sea level projection models for the 21st century is proposed with its corresponding probability density function, both for relative and absolute sea level rise for the west coast of Portugal Mainland. A mean sea level rise of 1.14 m was obtained for the epoch of 2100, with a likely range of 95% of probability between 0.39 m and 1.89 m.

Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt

Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. Ice-sheet discharge was not explicitly included in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, so effects on climate from this melt are not currently captured in the simulations most commonly used to inform governmental policy. Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss. In our simulations, future ice-sheet melt enhances global temperature variability and contributes up to 25 centimetres to sea level by 2100. However, uncertainties in the way in which future changes in ice dynamics are modelled remain, underlining the need for continued observations and comprehensive multi-model assessments.

Solid Earth change and the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Recent studies suggest that Antarctica has the potential to contribute up to ~15 m of sea-level rise over the next few centuries. The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is driven by a combination of climate forcing and non-climatic feedbacks. In this review we focus on feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, and the role of these feedbacks in shaping the response of the ice sheet to past and future climate changes. The growth and decay of the Antarctic Ice Sheet reshapes the solid Earth via isostasy and erosion. In turn, the shape of the bed exerts a fundamental control on ice dynamics as well as the position of the grounding line—the location where ice starts to float. A complicating issue is the fact that Antarctica is situated on a region of the Earth that displays large spatial variations in rheological properties. These properties affect the timescale and strength of feedbacks between ice-sheet change and solid Earth deformation, and hence must be accounted for when considering the future evolution of the ice sheet.

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is driven by a combination of climate forcing and non-climatic feedbacks. In this review, the authors focus on feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, and the role of these feedbacks in shaping the response of the ice sheet to past and future climate changes.

New Geodetic and Gravimetric Maps to Infer Geodynamics of Antarctica with Insights on Victoria Land

In order to make inferences on the geodynamics of Antarctica, geodetic and gravimetric maps derived from past and new observations can be used. This paper provides new insights into the geodynamics of Antarctica by integrating data at regional and continental scales. In particular, signatures of geodynamic activity at a regional extent have been investigated in Victoria Land (VL, Antarctica) by means of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) permanent station observations, data from the VLNDEF (Victoria Land Network for Deformation control) discontinuous network, and gravity station measurements. At the continental scale, episodic GNSS observations on VLNDEF sites collected for 20 years, together with continuous data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) and Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET) sites, were processed, and the Euler pole position assessed with the angular velocity of the Antarctic plate. Both the Bouguer and the free-air gravity anomaly maps were obtained by integrating the available open-access geophysics dataset, and a compilation of 180 gravity measurements collected in the VL within the Italian National Program for Antarctic Research (PNRA) activities. As a result, new evidence has been detected at regional and continental scale. The main absolute motion of VL is towards SE (Ve 9.9 ± 0.26 mm/yr, Vn −11.9 ± 0.27 mm/yr) with a pattern similar to the transforms of the Tasman and Balleny fracture zones produced as consequence of Southern Ocean spreading. Residual velocities of the GNSS stations located in VL confirm the active role of the two main tectonic lineaments of the region, the Rennick–Aviator and the Lillie–Tucker faults with right-lateral sense of shear. The resulting VL gravity anomalies show a NW region characterized by small sized Bouguer anomaly with high uplift rates associated and a SE region with low values of Bouguer anomaly and general subsidence phenomena. The East and West Antarctica are characterized by a different thickness of the Earth’s crust, and the relative velocities obtained by the observed GNSS data confirm that movements between the two regions are negligible. In East Antarctica, the roots of the main subglacial highlands, Gamburtsev Mts and Dronning Maud Land, are present. The Northern Victoria Land (NVL) is characterized by more scattered anomalies. These confirm the differences between the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modeled and observed uplift rates that could be related to deep-seated, regional scale structures.

Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability

The marine portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) accounts for one-fourth of the cryospheric contribution to global sea-level rise and is vulnerable to catastrophic collapse. The bedrock response to ice mass loss, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), was thought to occur on a time scale of 10,000 years. We used new GPS measurements, which show a rapid (41 millimeters per year) uplift of the ASE, to estimate the viscosity of the mantle underneath. We found a much lower viscosity (4 × 10¹⁸ pascal-second) than global average, and this shortens the GIA response time scale from tens to hundreds of years. Our finding requires an upward revision of ice mass loss from gravity data of 10% and increases the potential stability of the WAIS against catastrophic collapse.

An assessment of forward and inverse GIA solutions for Antarctica

In this work we assess the most recent estimates of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) for Antarctica, including those from both forward and inverse methods. The assessment is based on a comparison of the estimated uplift rates with a set of elastic-corrected GPS vertical velocities. These have been observed from an extensive GPS network and computed using data over the period 2009-2014. We find systematic underestimations of the observed uplift rates in both inverse and forward methods over specific regions of Antarctica characterized by low mantle viscosities and thin lithosphere, such as the northern Antarctic Peninsula and the Amundsen Sea Embayment, where its recent ice discharge history is likely to be playing a role in current GIA. Uplift estimates for regions where many GIA models have traditionally placed their uplift maxima, such as the margins of Filchner-Ronne and Ross ice shelves, are found to be overestimated. GIA estimates show large variability over the interior of East Antarctica which results in increased uncertainties on the ice-sheet mass balance derived from gravimetry methods.