An assessment of forward and inverse GIA solutions for Antarctica

Measuring glacier mass changes from space-a review

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are currently losing mass rapidly with direct and severe impacts on the habitability of some regions on Earth as glacier meltwater contributes to sea-level rise and alters regional water resources in arid regions. In this review, we present the different techniques developed during the last two decades to measure glacier mass change from space: digital elevation model (DEM) differencing from stereo-imagery and synthetic aperture radar interferometry, laser and radar altimetry and space gravimetry. We illustrate their respective strengths and weaknesses to survey the mass change of a large Arctic ice body, the Vatnajökull Ice Cap (Iceland) and for the steep glaciers of the Everest area (Himalaya). For entire regions, mass change estimates sometimes disagree when a similar technique is applied by different research groups. At global scale, these discrepancies result in mass change estimates varying by 20%-30%. Our review confirms the need for more thorough inter-comparison studies to understand the origin of these differences and to better constrain regional to global glacier mass changes and, ultimately, past and future glacier contribution to sea-level rise.

Assessment of Contemporary Antarctic GIA Models Using High-Precision GPS Time Series

Past redistributions of the Earth’s mass resulting from the Earth’s viscoelastic response to the cycle of deglaciation and glaciation reflect the process known as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). GPS data are effective at constraining GIA velocities, provided that these data are accurate, have adequate spatial coverage, and account for competing geophysical processes, including the elastic loading of ice/snow ablation/accumulation. GPS solutions are significantly affected by common mode errors (CMEs) and the choice of optimal noise model, and they are contaminated by other geophysical signals due primarily to the Earth’s elastic response. Here, independent component analysis is used to remove the CMEs, and the Akaike information criterion is used to determine the optimal noise model for 79 GPS stations in Antarctica, primarily distributed across West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. Next, a high-resolution surface mass variation model is used to correct for elastic deformation. Finally, we use the improved GPS solution to assess the accuracy of seven contemporary GIA forward models in Antarctica. The results show that the maximal GPS crustal displacement velocity deviations reach 4.0 mm yr−1, and the mean variation is 0.4 mm yr−1 after removing CMEs and implementing the noise analysis. All GIA model-predicted velocities are found to systematically underestimate the GPS-observed velocities in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Additionally, the GPS vertical velocities on the North Antarctic Peninsula are larger than those on the South Antarctic Peninsula, and most of the forward models underestimate the GIA impact on the Antarctic Peninsula.

Antarctic Ice Mass Change Products from GRACE/GRACE-FO Using Tailored Sensitivity Kernels

We derived gravimetric mass change products, i.e., gridded and basin-averaged mass changes, for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) from time-variable gravity-field solutions acquired by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and its successor GRACE-FO, covering more than 18 years. For this purpose, tailored sensitivity kernels (TSKs) were generated for the application in a regional integration approach. The TSKs were inferred in a formal optimization approach minimizing the sum of both propagated mission errors and leakage errors. We accounted for mission errors by means of an empirical error covariance model, while assumptions on signal variances of potential sources of leakage were used to minimize leakage errors. To identify the optimal parameters to be used in the TSK generation, we assessed a set of TSKs by quantifying signal leakage from the processing of synthetic data and by inferring the noise level of the derived basin products. The finally selected TSKs were used to calculate mass change products from GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-2 spherical harmonic solutions covering 2002-04 to 2020-07. These products were compared to external data sets from satellite altimetry and the input–output method. For the period under investigation, the mass balance of the AIS was quantified to be −90.9±43.5 Gt a−1, corresponding to a mean sea-level rise of 0.25±0.12 mm a−1.

Observing and Modeling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance

Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5-30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller-scale SMB processes.

A Joint Inversion Estimate of Antarctic Ice Sheet Mass Balance Using Multi-Geodetic Data Sets

Many recent mass balance estimates using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and satellite altimetry (including two kinds of sensors of radar and laser) show that the ice mass of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is in overall decline. However, there are still large differences among previously published estimates of the total mass change, even in the same observed periods. The considerable error sources mainly arise from the forward models (e.g., glacial isostatic adjustment [GIA] and firn compaction) that may be uncertain but indispensable to simulate some processes not directly measured or obtained by these observations. To minimize the use of these forward models, we estimate the mass change of ice sheet and present-day GIA using multi-geodetic observations, including GRACE and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), as well as Global Positioning System (GPS), by an improved method of joint inversion estimate (JIE), which enables us to solve simultaneously for the Antarctic GIA and ice mass trends. The GIA uplift rates generated from our JIE method show a good agreement with the elastic-corrected GPS uplift rates, and the total GIA-induced mass change estimate for the AIS is 54 ± 27 Gt/yr, which is in line with many recent GPS calibrated GIA estimates. Our GIA result displays the presence of significant uplift rates in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, where strong uplift has been observed by GPS. Over the period February 2003 to October 2009, the entire AIS changed in mass by −84 ± 31 Gt/yr (West Antarctica: −69 ± 24, East Antarctica: 12 ± 16 and the Antarctic Peninsula: −27 ± 8), greater than the GRACE-only estimates obtained from three Mascon solutions (CSR: −50 ± 30, JPL: −71 ± 30, and GSFC: −51 ± 33 Gt/yr) for the same period. This may imply that single GRACE data tend to underestimate ice mass loss due to the signal leakage and attenuation errors of ice discharge are often worse than that of surface mass balance over the AIS.

Solid Earth change and the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Recent studies suggest that Antarctica has the potential to contribute up to ~15 m of sea-level rise over the next few centuries. The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is driven by a combination of climate forcing and non-climatic feedbacks. In this review we focus on feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, and the role of these feedbacks in shaping the response of the ice sheet to past and future climate changes. The growth and decay of the Antarctic Ice Sheet reshapes the solid Earth via isostasy and erosion. In turn, the shape of the bed exerts a fundamental control on ice dynamics as well as the position of the grounding line—the location where ice starts to float. A complicating issue is the fact that Antarctica is situated on a region of the Earth that displays large spatial variations in rheological properties. These properties affect the timescale and strength of feedbacks between ice-sheet change and solid Earth deformation, and hence must be accounted for when considering the future evolution of the ice sheet.

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is driven by a combination of climate forcing and non-climatic feedbacks. In this review, the authors focus on feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, and the role of these feedbacks in shaping the response of the ice sheet to past and future climate changes.

High-Resolution Mass Trends of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through a Spectral Combination of Satellite Gravimetry and Radar Altimetry Observations

Time-variable gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) missions and satellite altimetry measurements from CryoSat-2 enable independent mass balance estimates of the Earth’s glaciers and ice sheets. Both approaches vary in terms of their retrieval principles and signal-to-noise characteristics. GRACE/GRACE-FO recovers the gravity disturbance caused by changes in the mass of the entire ice sheet with a spatial resolution of 300 to 400 km. In contrast, CryoSat-2measures travel times of a radar signal reflected close to the ice sheet surface, allowing changes of the surface topography to be determined with about 5 km spatial resolution. Here, we present a method to combine observations from the both sensors, taking into account the different signal and noise characteristics of each satellite observation that are dependent on the spatial wavelength. We include uncertainties introduced by the processing and corrections, such as the choice of the re-tracking algorithm and the snow/ice volume density model for CryoSat-2, or the filtering of correlated errors and the correction for glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) for GRACE. We apply our method to the Antarctic ice sheet and the time period 2011–2017, in which GRACE and CryoSat-2 were simultaneously operational, obtaining a total ice mass loss of 178 ± 23 Gt yr−1. We present a map of the rate of mass change with a spatial resolution of 40 km that is evaluable across all spatial scales, and more precise than estimates based on a single satellite mission.

Observed rapid bedrock uplift in Amundsen Sea Embayment promotes ice-sheet stability

The marine portion of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) accounts for one-fourth of the cryospheric contribution to global sea-level rise and is vulnerable to catastrophic collapse. The bedrock response to ice mass loss, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), was thought to occur on a time scale of 10,000 years. We used new GPS measurements, which show a rapid (41 millimeters per year) uplift of the ASE, to estimate the viscosity of the mantle underneath. We found a much lower viscosity (4 × 10¹⁸ pascal-second) than global average, and this shortens the GIA response time scale from tens to hundreds of years. Our finding requires an upward revision of ice mass loss from gravity data of 10% and increases the potential stability of the WAIS against catastrophic collapse.