Is Anticipation Skill Learning Bayesian?

Purpose: The aims of this study were to examine the learning of anticipation skill in the presence of kinematic and outcome probabilities information, and to see if this learning exhibited characteristics of Bayesian integration. Method: Participants with no competitive tennis playing experience watched tennis player stimuli playing forehand tennis shots and were tasked with predicted shot outcomes. Accuracy, response times and perceived task effort were recorded, pre, post and during four acquisition blocks where outcome feedback was provided. In both Experiment 1 and 2, kinematic information about shot direction was either present in the training group stimuli or absent. In Experiment 1, left/right shot probability information remained equi-probable for both groups. In Experiment 2, both groups also trained with a bias in the shot outcome probability toward one shot direction on 80% of the trials across acquisition blocks (and were not told about this manipulation). Results: Pre-to-post anticipation performance improved in the presence of kinematic (EXP 1) or both information sources (EXP 2). Pre-to-post improvements in the presence of shot outcome probability information were congruent with the bias in the shot direction trained (EXP 2). Superior anticipation performance was found when both information sources were present. The presence of kinematic information resulted in increased perceived effort during early training (EXP 1 & 2). Bayesian odds ratios indicated that shot direction probabilities and kinematic information were integrated during anticipation skill learning. Conclusion: Learning with shot direction probabilities and kinematic information shows characteristics of Bayesian integration.

The effect of task load, information reliability and interdependency on anticipation performance

In sport, coaches often explicitly provide athletes with stable contextual information related to opponent action preferences to enhance anticipation performance. This information can be dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information that only emerges during the sequence of play (e.g. opponent positioning). The interdependency between contextual information sources, and the associated cognitive demands of integrating information sources during anticipation, has not yet been systematically examined. We used a temporal occlusion paradigm to alter the reliability of contextual and kinematic information during the early, mid- and final phases of a two-versus-two soccer anticipation task. A dual-task paradigm was incorporated to investigate the impact of task load on skilled soccer players' ability to integrate information and update their judgements in each phase. Across conditions, participants received no contextual information (control) or stable contextual information (opponent preferences) that was dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information (opponent positioning). As predicted, participants used reliable contextual and kinematic information to enhance anticipation. Further exploratory analysis suggested that increased task load detrimentally affected anticipation accuracy but only when both reliable contextual and kinematic information were available for integration in the final phase. This effect was observed irrespective of whether the stable contextual information was dependent on, or independent of, dynamic contextual information. Findings suggest that updating anticipatory judgements in the final phase of a sequence of play based on the integration of reliable contextual and kinematic information requires cognitive resources.

Action outcome probability influences the size of the head-fake effect in basketball

Both kinematic and contextual information (e.g., action outcome probability) play a significant role in action anticipation. However, few researchers have examined the reciprocal influence of the two types of information and fewer still have investigated this issue for deceptive actions in sports. In the present study, we investigate the impact of action outcome probability on the processing of deceptive kinematic cues for the head fake in basketball. We manipulated the probability of the action outcome to either pass the ball to the left or to the right side (i.e., 75%, 50%, 25%) and examined how this contextual information affected the influence of head orientation on pass direction judgments. Outcome probability information was either provided explicitly (Experiment 1) or implicitly (Experiment 2). Both experiments indicated an increased head-fake effect with increasing outcome probability. Moreover, the bias to respond in line with the player's head direction increased linearly with outcome probability. Also, discriminability between deceptive and genuine actions was poorer for high outcome probability (75%) associated with head orientation than for the 25% and 50% values. Last, a stronger response bias toward the higher probability side for deceptive trials than for genuine trials was only significant when the outcome probability information was processed implicitly in Experiment 2. The results of this study fit well with recent literature on contextual information in action prediction and are discussed in light of confirmation bias and signal detection theory.

Factors affecting decision-making in Gaelic Football: a focus group approach

Objectives

Research examining decision-making in sports has predominantly used experimental approaches that fail to provide a holistic understanding of the various factors that impact the decision-making process. The current study aimed to explore the decision-making processes of Senior (expert) and Academy (near-expert) Gaelic Football players using a focus group approach.

Methods

Four focus groups were conducted; two with Senior players (n = 5; n = 6) and two with U17 Academy players (n = 5; n = 6). In each focus group, short video clips of Senior Gaelic football games were played, and the action was paused at key moments. The group then discussed the options available to the player in possession, the decision they would make in that situation, and importantly, what factors influenced the final decision. Thematic analysis was used to identify themes that emerged from the focus groups.

Results and discussion

Four primary themes emerged that affected the decision-making process. Three themes were related to information sources, namely, pre-match context (coach tactics and instructions, match importance, and opposition status), current match context (score and time remaining), and visual information (player positioning and field space, and visual search strategy), and the fourth theme related to individual differences (self-efficacy, risk propensity, perceived pressure, physical characteristics, action capabilities, fatigue) that moderated the decision-making process. Compared to the near-expert Academy players, the expert Senior players displayed a more sophisticated understanding of the various sources of information and were able to integrate them in a more complex manner to make projections regarding future scenarios. For both groups, the decision-making process was moderated by individual differences. A schematic has been developed based on the study findings in an attempt to illustrate the hypothesized decision-making process.

Effective practice and instruction: A skill acquisition framework for excellence

We revisit an agenda that was outlined in a previous paper in this journal focusing on the importance of skill acquisition research in enhancing practice and instruction in sport. In this current narrative review, we reflect on progress made since our original attempt to highlight several potential myths that appeared to exist in coaching, implying the existence of a theory-practice divide. Most notably, we present five action points that would impact positively on coaches and practitioners working to improve skill learning across sports, as well as suggesting directions for research. We discuss the importance of practice quality in enhancing learning and relate this concept to notions of optimising challenge. We discuss how best to assess learning, the right balance between repetition and practice that is specific to competition, the relationship between practice conditions, instructions, and individual differences, and why a more "hands-off" approach to instruction may have advantages over more "hands-on" methods. These action points are considered as a broad framework for advancing skill acquisition for excellence (SAFE) in applied practice. We conclude by arguing the need for increased collaboration between researchers, coaches, and other sport practitioners.

A Bayesian computational model to investigate expert anticipation of a seemingly unpredictable ball bounce

During dynamic and time-constrained sporting tasks performers rely on both online perceptual information and prior contextual knowledge to make effective anticipatory judgments. It has been suggested that performers may integrate these sources of information in an approximately Bayesian fashion, by weighting available information sources according to their expected precision. In the present work, we extended Bayesian brain approaches to anticipation by using formal computational models to estimate how performers weighted different information sources when anticipating the bounce direction of a rugby ball. Both recreational (novice) and professional (expert) rugby players (n = 58) were asked to predict the bounce height of an oncoming rugby ball in a temporal occlusion paradigm. A computational model, based on a partially observable Markov decision process, was fitted to observed responses to estimate participants' weighting of online sensory cues and prior beliefs about ball bounce height. The results showed that experts were more sensitive to online sensory information, but that neither experts nor novices relied heavily on prior beliefs about ball trajectories in this task. Experts, but not novices, were observed to down-weight priors in their anticipatory decisions as later and more precise visual cues emerged, as predicted by Bayesian and active inference accounts of perception.

Conocimiento de las tendencias de ataques rivales en el bloqueo de voleibol

El objetivo del estudio fue investigar los efectos de proporcionar información probabilística, obtenida del análisis en vídeo de las tendencias de pase de las colocadoras oponentes, sobre el rendimiento en el bloqueo de una jugadora de alto nivel de voleibol. Se analizó su tiempo de reacción, toma de decisión y calidad de ejecución durante 1117 acciones de bloqueo realizadas en 18 partidos de competición, antes y después de recibir esa información contextual de los ataques rivales. Los resultados revelaron que la bloqueadora reaccionó antes (p < .001) en aquellos partidos que recibió información sobre las tendencias de pase de las colocadoras oponentes. En cambio, esta información contextual no tuvo influencia sobre sus decisiones, ni en la calidad de ejecución de sus movimientos. Estos resultados refuerzan el uso de información probabilística como una estrategia competitiva para iniciar antes una respuesta preparatoria a la acción de bloqueo en voleibol de alto nivel.

Skill-Based Differences in the Detection and Utilization of Opponent Action Preferences Following Increasing Exposure and Changes in Tendencies

We examined skill-based differences in the detection and utilization of contextual information over a period of increasing exposure to an opponent's action preferences in soccer. Moreover, we investigated the ability of athletes to adapt to changes in these action preferences over time. In an initial detection phase, the attacking opponent demonstrated a proclivity to either pass or dribble, with these preferences being reversed in a subsequent adaptation phase of the same length. Skilled soccer players showed superior anticipation accuracy across both phases compared with less-skilled counterparts. The skilled participants significantly enhanced their performance over both phases, despite a significant drop in performance immediately following the change in opponent action preferences. In contrast, the less-skilled group only improved over the detection phase. Gaze data revealed that the skilled participants fixated more on kinematically relevant areas, compared with the less-skilled group, and increased the time spent fixating the player "off the ball" following greater volumes of exposure. Our novel findings elaborate on how skilled performers use both action preferences and motion information to anticipate an opponent's impending actions in sport.

An Active Inference Account of Skilled Anticipation in Sport: Using Computational Models to Formalise Theory and Generate New Hypotheses

Optimal performance in time-constrained and dynamically changing environments depends on making reliable predictions about future outcomes. In sporting tasks, performers have been found to employ multiple information sources to maximise the accuracy of their predictions, but questions remain about how different information sources are weighted and integrated to guide anticipation. In this paper, we outline how predictive processing approaches, and active inference in particular, provide a unifying account of perception and action that explains many of the prominent findings in the sports anticipation literature. Active inference proposes that perception and action are underpinned by the organism’s need to remain within certain stable states. To this end, decision making approximates Bayesian inference and actions are used to minimise future prediction errors during brain–body–environment interactions. Using a series of Bayesian neurocomputational models based on a partially observable Markov process, we demonstrate that key findings from the literature can be recreated from the first principles of active inference. In doing so, we formulate a number of novel and empirically falsifiable hypotheses about human anticipation capabilities that could guide future investigations in the field.

Shot fakes as an indicator of successful offense in basketball

Past research has shown that tactical skills can increase the offensive output in basketball. Laboratory studies have confirmed this and indicated that fakes are useful, but their effectiveness is a function of expertise. In recent times, experts in the field have been able to correctly identify fakes with a higher accuracy. In this study, the primary objective was to investigate the offensive technical-tactical play shot fakes as a possible performance indicator in real basketball games. Furthermore, we evaluated how the attacker's initial offensive positioning and location on court influence the effectiveness of such shot fakes. We examined 45 NBA games using post-hoc video analyses. Though, on an average, a tenth of all points were scored after a shot fake, our data showed a significantly higher offensive effectiveness of possessions with a shot fake compared to the games' average for all offensive possessions. Moreover, shot fakes were found to be more effective being initially open, and were more often used when the focus player was being covered by a defender. In addition, 73% of all shot fakes were successful and advantageous for the attacker. This result, in conjunction with previous laboratory studies in which experts showed an above average probability of detection, points to the importance of time pressure for representative study designs. The evidence from this study proves that shot fakes are an important and effective offensive tool to gain an advantage over the opponent and increase offensive scoring, thereby setting the foundation for future research on shot fakes across sports.

Context Affects Quiet Eye Duration and Motor Performance Independent of Cognitive Effort

Extensive literature has shown the effect of "quiet eye" (QE) on motor performance. However, little attention has been paid to the context in which tasks are executed (independent of anxiety) and the mechanisms that underpin the phenomenon. Here, the authors aimed to investigate the effects of context (independent of anxiety) on QE and performance while examining if the mechanisms underpinning QE are rooted in cognitive effort. In this study, 21 novice participants completed golf putts while pupil dilation, QE duration, and putting accuracy were measured. Results showed that putting to win was more accurate compared with the control (no context) condition, and QE duration was longer when putting to win or tie a hole compared with control. There was no effect of context on pupil dilation. Results suggest that, while the task was challenging, performance scenarios can enhance representativeness of practice without adding additional load to cognitive resources, even for novice performers.

The Acute and Chronic Effects of Dual-Task on the Motor and Cognitive Performances in Athletes: A Systematic Review

Athletes must distribute their attention to many relevant cues during a match. Therefore, athletes’ ability to deal with dual-tasks may be different from the non-athlete population, demanding a deeper investigation within the sports domain. This study aimed to systematically review the acute and chronic effects of dual-tasks in motor and cognitive performances in athletes from different modalities. The search for articles followed all the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The keywords used were: “dual-task” OR “double task” OR “multi-task” OR “divided attention” OR “secondary task” OR “second task” AND “working memory” OR “visual” OR “decision making” OR “gaze behavior” OR “attention” AND “sports” OR “athletes” OR “players”. The Scopus, Pubmed, and Web of Science databases were screened for studies comparing single and dual-tasks, in which the participants were athletes competing at any level, and in which at least one of the following variables were investigated: working memory, decision-making, visual search behavior, perception, anticipation, attention, or motor tasks. Articles were screened using pre-defined selection criteria, and methodological quality was assessed by two researchers independently. Following the eligibility criteria, we included 18 articles in the review: 13 on the acute effects, and five on the chronic effects. This review showed that the acute effect of dual-tasks impairs the motor and cognitive performances of athletes (dual-task cost). However, training with dual-tasks (chronic effect) improved working memory skills and attentional control. We conclude that dual-tasks acutely and chronically impacts motor and cognitive performance.

Integrating explicit contextual priors and kinematic information during anticipation

We examined the interaction between explicit contextual priors and kinematic information during anticipation in soccer. We employed a video-based anticipation task where skilled soccer players had to predict the direction of the imminent actions of an attacking opponent in possession of the ball. The players performed the task both with and without explicit contextual priors pertaining to the opponent's action tendencies. The strength of the opponent's action tendencies was altered in order to manipulate the reliability of contextual priors (low vs. high). Moreover, the reliability of kinematic information (low vs. high) was manipulated using the temporal occlusion paradigm. The explicit provision of contextual priors biased anticipation towards the most likely direction, given the opponent's action tendencies, and resulted in enhanced performance. This effect was greater under conditions where the reliability of kinematic information was low rather than high. When the reliability of kinematic information was high, the players used explicit contextual priors of high, but not low, reliability to inform their judgements. Findings suggest that athletes employ reliability-based strategies when integrating contextual priors with kinematic information during anticipation. The impact of explicit contextual priors is dependent on the reliability both of the priors and the evolving kinematic information.

Whole body coordination patterning in volleyball spikes under various task constraints: exploratory cluster analysis based on self-organising maps

Task and environment-related constraints can influence spike performance in volleyball players. This study was designated to investigate the impact of awareness of the presence or absence of a defensive block by the opponents on the performance and coordination pattern of spikes in elite volleyball attackers. Simulating a real-game scenario, 10 elite youth attackers (aged 15.5 ± 0.7 years) executed six spikes each with prior notification about the presence/absence of defences and six spikes without any notification. In each condition, they were blocked by two opponents in three trials. The coordination patterning of the attackers was explored using cluster analysis based on a Self-Organising Map (SOM). The SOMs and the cluster analysis showed that the coordination pattern of the spike execution was very individual-specific; however, in the third layer of the cluster analysis, it was revealed that the movement pattern of spike execution had similarities in the scenario wherein the players had prior awareness of the defences. Providing the attackers with information on the opponents' condition or performance could shift the attackers' focus from a game-oriented condition to the rivals' behaviour, which consequently resulted in deterioration of their spike performance.

Cognitive load reduces interference by head fakes in basketball

The head fake in basketball is a deceptive action in sports, where an attacking basketball player gazes in one direction (irrelevant component), but passes the ball to the opposite direction (relevant component). A defending player, who aims to respond to the relevant information displayed by the opponent, faces a situation conceptually similar to well-known interference paradigms (e.g., Stroop task, Eriksen flanker task). Previous research has shown that responses to pass directions are slower and more error prone for head fakes than for direct passes (so called head-fake effect). The head-fake effect depends on participants' ability to focus attention on the relevant stimulus feature. As maintaining this attentional focus conceivably bears on limited capacities, we tested if taxing these capacities by a cognitively demanding concurrent task would change the impact of task-irrelevant information and thus, the size of the head-fake effect. Moreover, we investigated the impact of such a concurrent task on post-conflict control (i.e., the congruency sequence effect). The results show that a concurrent task reduces the head-fake effect, while post-conflict control was unaffected. We discuss these findings with regard to the relationship of working memory processes and selective attention.

The modulation of event-related alpha rhythm during the time course of anticipation

Anticipation is the ability to accurately predict future actions or events ahead of the act itself. When attempting to anticipate, researchers have identified that at least two broad sources of information are used: contextual information relating to the situation in question; and biological motion from postural cues. However, the neural correlates associated with the processing of these different sources of information across groups varying in expertise has yet to be examined empirically. We compared anticipation performance and electrophysiological activity in groups of expert (n = 12) and novice (n = 15) performers using a video-based task. Participants made anticipation judgements after being presented information under three conditions: contextual information only; kinematic information only; and both sources of information combined. The experts responded more accurately across all three conditions. Stronger alpha event-related desynchronization over occipital and frontocentral sites occurred in experts compared to the novices when anticipating. The experts relied on stronger preparatory attentional mechanisms when they processed contextual information. When kinematic information was available, the domain specific motor representations built up over many years of practice likely underpinned expertise. Our findings have implications for those interested in identifying and subsequently, enhancing the neural mechanisms involved in anticipation.

The effects of skill-level and playing-position on the anticipation of ball-bounce in rugby union

The ability to anticipate is a defining feature of skilled sports performance. To date, research investigating the information that underpins skilled anticipation has focused on kinematic information from an opponent and contextual factors. However, there has been a paucity of research investigating the influence of ball-flight and spin. Oval shaped balls, despite the seeming random nature, do in fact display specific bounce characteristics based on the nature of ball-flight. We tested the ability of 38 professional (categorised in to 15 'backs' and 23 'forwards' based on their playing position) and 20 less-skilled rugby union players to anticipate ball bounce direction for grubber and chip kicks using a temporal occlusion paradigm to restrict access to different sources of information. We predicted that skilled performers would have become attuned to both advance postural cues and the physical laws of ball flight and spin that govern ball bounce through their extensive practice and exposure to these situations, and so would anticipate more accurately than less-skilled performers. Results supported this hypothesis as skilled participants outperformed less-skilled in all occlusion conditions, however all groups anticipated more accurately with access to later emerging information sources (i.e., ball spin and rotation) with the skill level difference primarily underpinned by earlier available sources (i.e., advance postural cues). There was no difference between anticipation accuracy in professional forwards and backs and no kick type x group interaction, suggesting that the knowledge structures underpinning perceptual-cognitive expertise are not position specific. Findings have implication for models of anticipation and training design and tactics in rugby.