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You P, Gao RY, Han YZ, Zhang XK, Li WX, Huang LF. Postoperative plasma presepsin as a biomarker of postoperative infectious complications in different surgical departments: A meta-analysis and systematic review. Am J Surg 2024; 229:65-75. [PMID: 38065723 DOI: 10.1016/j.amjsurg.2023.11.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2023] [Revised: 11/19/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 03/01/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND High rates of postoperative infection persist after different surgical procedures, encompassing surgical site infections (SSIs), remote infections, sepsis, and septic shock. Our aim was to assess presepsin's diagnostic accuracy for postoperative infections in patients across surgical procedures. METHOD We conducted a comprehensive search in seven databases, extracting data independently. Using STATA 14.0, we calculated pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and Under the receiver operator curve and 95 % confidence interval (AUC, 95 % CI) as primary outcomes, with secondary outcomes involving sensitivity and specificity in subgroup analyses. RESULTS This meta-analysis of 14 studies (1891 cases) evaluated presepsin's diagnostic value for postoperative infectious complications. Results include sensitivity of 77 % (70-83), specificity of 81 % (71-88), DOR of 14 (8-26), AUC of 84 (80-87), PLR of 4 (3-6), and NLR of 0.28 (0.21-0.38). Presepsin exhibits promise as a diagnostic tool for postoperative infections. CONCLUSION In summary, compared to conventional markers like C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT), presepsin demonstrated superior sensitivity and specificity for detecting postoperative infectious complications across various surgical procedures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pan You
- Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongren Tiyuchang Nanlu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
| | - Rong-Yue Gao
- Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongren Tiyuchang Nanlu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
| | - Yu-Zhen Han
- Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongren Tiyuchang Nanlu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
| | - Xiao-Ke Zhang
- Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongren Tiyuchang Nanlu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
| | - Wen-Xiong Li
- Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongren Tiyuchang Nanlu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
| | - Li-Feng Huang
- Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Beijing Chao-yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Gongren Tiyuchang Nanlu, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100020, China.
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2
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Kajiwara Y, Takahashi A, Ueno H, Kakeji Y, Hasegawa H, Eguchi S, Goi T, Saiura A, Sasaki A, Takiguchi S, Takeuchi H, Tanaka C, Hashimoto M, Hiki N, Horiguchi A, Matsuda S, Mizushima T, Marubashi S, Gotoh M, Konno H, Yamamoto H, Miyata H, Seto Y, Kitagawa Y. Annual report on National Clinical Database 2020 for gastroenterological surgery in Japan. Ann Gastroenterol Surg 2023; 7:367-406. [PMID: 37152776 PMCID: PMC10154850 DOI: 10.1002/ags3.12662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 04/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Aim The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan is a nationwide data entry system for surgery, and it marked its 10th anniversary in 2020. The aim was to present the 2020 annual report of gastroenterological surgery of the NCD. Methods The data of the surgical procedures stipulated by the training curriculum for board-certified surgeons of the Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery in the NCD from 2011 to 2020 were summarized. Results In total, 5 622 845 cases, including 593 088 cases in 2020, were extracted from the NCD. The total number of gastroenterological surgeries increased gradually in these 10 years, except for the year 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual number of surgeries of each organ, except the pancreas and liver, decreased by 0.4%-13.1% in 2020 compared to 2019. The surgical patients were consistently aging, with more than 20% of all gastroenterological surgeries in 2020 involving patients aged 80 years or older. The participation of board-certified surgeons increased for each organ (75.9%-95.7% in 2020). The rates of endoscopic surgery also increased constantly. Although the incidences of postoperative complications of each organ increased by 0.7%-7.9% in these 10 years, postoperative mortality rates decreased by 0.2%-1.5%. Conclusions We present here the short-term outcomes of each gastroenterological operative procedure in 2020. This review of the 10-years of NCD data of gastroenterological surgery revealed a consistent increase of the number of surgeries (except for in 2020), especially endoscopic procedures, and aging of the Japanese population. The good safety of Japanese gastroenterological surgeries was also indicated.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Arata Takahashi
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Hideki Ueno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | | | - Susumu Eguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Takanori Goi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Akio Saiura
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Akira Sasaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Shuji Takiguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroya Takeuchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Chie Tanaka
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Naoki Hiki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Satoru Matsuda
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | | | - Mitsukazu Gotoh
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroyuki Konno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroyuki Yamamoto
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Department of Health Policy and Management, School of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Yasuyuki Seto
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
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3
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Ichihara N, Sato N, Marubashi S, Miyata H, Eguchi S, Ohdan H, Umeshita K, Gotoh M. Achieving clinically optimal balance between accuracy and simplicity of a formula for manual use: Development of a simple formula for estimating liver graft weight with donor anthropometrics. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280569. [PMID: 36662814 PMCID: PMC9858735 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2021] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
In developing a formula for manual use in clinical settings, simplicity is as important as accuracy. Whole-liver (WL) mass is often estimated using demographic and anthropometric information to calculate the standard liver volume or recommended graft volume in liver transplantation. Multiple formulas for estimating WL mass have been reported, including those with multiple independent variables. However, it is unknown whether multivariable models lead to clinically meaningful improvements in accuracy over univariable models. Our goal was to quantitatively define clinically meaningful improvements in accuracy, which justifies an additional independent variable, and to identify an estimation formula for WL graft weight that best balances accuracy and simplicity given the criterion. From the Japanese Liver Transplantation Society registry, which contains data on all liver transplant cases in Japan, 129 WL donor-graft pairs were extracted. Among the candidate models, those with the smallest cross-validation (CV) root-mean-square error (RMSE) were selected, penalizing model complexity by requiring more complex models to yield a ≥5% decrease in CV RMSE. The winning model by voting with random subsets was fitted to the entire dataset to obtain the final formula. External validity was assessed using CV. A simple univariable linear regression formula using body weight (BW) was obtained as follows: WL graft weight [g] = 14.8 × BW [kg] + 439.2. The CV RMSE (g) and coefficient of determination (R2) were 195.2 and 0.548, respectively. In summary, in the development of a simple formula for manually estimating WL weight using demographic and anthropometric variables, a clinically acceptable trade-off between accuracy and simplicity was quantitatively defined, and the best model was selected using this criterion. A univariable linear model using BW achieved a clinically optimal balance between simplicity and accuracy, while one using body surface area performed similarly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nao Ichihara
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Naoya Sato
- Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic and Transplant Surgery, Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Shigeru Marubashi
- Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic and Transplant Surgery, Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Fukushima, Japan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Susumu Eguchi
- Department of Surgery, Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Science, Sakamoto, Nagasaki, Japan
- Division of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan
| | - Hideki Ohdan
- Japanese Liver Transplant Society, Suita, Osaka, Japan
- Division of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan
| | - Koji Umeshita
- Department of Gastroenterological and Transplant Surgery, Applied Life Sciences, Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan
- Division of Health Sciences, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan
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4
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Sahara K, Miyake K, Tsilimigras DI, Homma Y, Kumamoto T, Matsuyama R, Beane JD, Endo I, Pawlik TM. Real-time mortality risk calculator following pancreatoduodenectomy: quantifying the impact of perioperative events. HPB (Oxford) 2022; 24:1551-1559. [PMID: 35428586 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2022.03.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2021] [Revised: 12/31/2021] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Estimation of mortality risk traditionally has only included preoperative factors. We sought to develop "real-time" mortality risk-calculator for patients who undergo pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) based on preoperative factors, as well as events that occurred during the course of patient's surgery and hospitalization. METHODS Patients who underwent PD from 2014 to 2018 were identified in the ACS-NSQIP dataset. Training and validation cohorts were created. Pre-, intra-, and post-operative models to predict 30-day mortality were developed based on perioperative variables selected by stepwise cox regression analyses; model performance was assessed using AUC. RESULTS Among 17,683 patients who underwent PD, 1.6% died within 30-days. Patient factors and events associated with 30-day mortality were incorporated into a risk calculator (https://ktsahara.shinyapps.io/Real-timePD/). The accuracy of the risk-calculator increased relative to hospital time-course in both the training (AUC, pre-:0.696, intra-:0.724, post-operative:0.871) and validation (AUC, pre-:0.681, intra-:0.702, post-operative:0.850) cohorts. One in 3 patients had a concordant calculated risk of mortality using pre-versus postoperative variables to inform the risk model (kappa = 0.474). CONCLUSION Risk of mortality fluctuated over the hospital course following PD and preoperative risk assessment was often discordant with risk assessed at other periods. The proposed "real-time" calculator may help better stratify patients with increased risk of 30-day mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kota Sahara
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan; Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Kentaro Miyake
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Diamantis I Tsilimigras
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Yuki Homma
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Takafumi Kumamoto
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Ryusei Matsuyama
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Joal D Beane
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Itaru Endo
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Timothy M Pawlik
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA.
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Yokose T, Takeuchi M, Obara H, Shinoda M, Kawakubo H, Kitago M, Yagi H, Abe Y, Yamada Y, Matsubara K, Oshima G, Hori S, Fujimura T, Takemura R, Ishii R, Kuroda T, Kitagawa Y. Diagnostic Utility of Presepsin in Infections After Liver Transplantation: A Preliminary Study. Ann Transplant 2021; 26:e933774. [PMID: 34795199 PMCID: PMC8609769 DOI: 10.12659/aot.933774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infectious complications after solid organ transplantation can be fatal, and early diagnosis and intervention are important. To the best of our knowledge, no study has examined the diagnostic utility of presepsin, a known accurate biomarker, for infectious complications after liver transplantation. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of presepsin for detecting infection and perioperative kinetics of presepsin after liver transplantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS This single-institutional prospective, observational study included 13 patients who underwent living-donor or deceased-donor liver transplantation. Perioperative serum presepsin level was measured 6 times within a week to evaluate its association with infectious complications and compare it with procalcitonin and C-reactive protein levels and leukocyte count. Postoperatively, patients were followed up for 15 days for infectious complications. RESULTS Five of the 13 patients developed infectious complications after liver transplantation. The median time for infection diagnosis was 9 postoperative days (25th-75th percentile, 7-10). Presepsin levels on 5 and 7 postoperative days were significantly higher in patients with infection than in those without (P=0.019 and P=0.011, respectively). In receiver operating characteristic analysis, area under the curve values of presepsin on 5 and 7 postoperative days (0.881 and 0.905, respectively) were higher than those of other biomarkers. The optimal cut-off value of presepsin was 1361 pg/mL on postoperative day 5 and 1375 pg/mL on postoperative day 7. CONCLUSIONS Although this study included a small number of patients, presepsin levels on postoperative days 5 and 7 may be useful indicators for infectious complications after liver transplantation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Takahiro Yokose
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Masashi Takeuchi
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Hideaki Obara
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Masahiro Shinoda
- Digestive Diseases Center, Mita Hospital, International University of Health and Welfare, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hirofumi Kawakubo
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Minoru Kitago
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Yagi
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Yuta Abe
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Yohei Yamada
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Kentaro Matsubara
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Go Oshima
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Shutaro Hori
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Takumi Fujimura
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Ryo Takemura
- Biostatistics Unit, Clinical and Translational Research Center, Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ryota Ishii
- Biostatistics Unit, Clinical and Translational Research Center, Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Tatsuo Kuroda
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- Department of Surgery, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku, Japan
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6
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Marubashi S, Takahashi A, Kakeji Y, Hasegawa H, Ueno H, Eguchi S, Endo I, Goi T, Saiura A, Sasaki A, Takiguchi S, Takeuchi H, Tanaka C, Hashimoto M, Hiki N, Horiguchi A, Masaki T, Yoshida K, Gotoh M, Konno H, Yamamoto H, Miyata H, Seto Y, Kitagawa Y. Surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery in Japan: Report of the National Clinical Database 2011-2019. Ann Gastroenterol Surg 2021; 5:639-658. [PMID: 34585049 PMCID: PMC8452469 DOI: 10.1002/ags3.12462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 62] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2021] [Revised: 03/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND We aimed to present the 2019 annual report of the gastroenterological section of the National Clinical Database (NCD). METHODS We reviewed 609,589 cases recorded in 2019 and 5,029,764 cases registered from 2011 to 2019 for the 115 selected gastroenterological surgical procedures. RESULTS The main features of gastroenterological surgery in Japan were similar to those described in the 2018 annual report, namely, that 1) operative numbers gradually increased in all procedures, except gastrectomy and hepatectomy, which decreased in these years; 2) in all eight major gastroenterological surgeries, the age distribution tended toward older patients; 3) the morbidity of esophagectomy, hepatectomy, and pancreaticoduodenectomy increased, but mortality was minimized in all procedures; 4) all eight major gastroenterological procedures have increasingly been performed under laparoscopy; and 5) board-certified surgeons were increasingly involved. These trends in recent years were more prominent in 2019. CONCLUSIONS Thanks to the continuous cooperation and dedication of the surgeons, medical staff, and surgical clinical reviewers who registered the clinical data into the NCD, it is possible to understand the comprehensive landscape of surgery in Japan and to disclose new evidence in this field. The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery will continue to promote the value of this database and encourage the use of feedback and clinical studies using the NCD, now and in the future. Generating further approaches to surgical quality improvement are important directions for future research.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Arata Takahashi
- Department of Health Policy and ManagementSchool of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | | | | | - Hideki Ueno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Susumu Eguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Itaru Endo
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Takanori Goi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Akio Saiura
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Akira Sasaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Shuji Takiguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroya Takeuchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Chie Tanaka
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Naoki Hiki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Tadahiko Masaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | | | - Mitsukazu Gotoh
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroyuki Konno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroyuki Yamamoto
- Department of Health Policy and ManagementSchool of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Department of Health Policy and ManagementSchool of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyoJapan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Yasuyuki Seto
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological SurgeryTokyoJapan
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7
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Arita J, Yamamoto H, Kokudo T, Hasegawa K, Miyata H, Toh Y, Gotoh M, Kokudo N, Kakeji Y, Seto Y. Impact of board certification system and adherence to the clinical practice guidelines for liver cancer on post-hepatectomy risk-adjusted mortality rate in Japan: A questionnaire survey of departments registered with the National Clinical Database. JOURNAL OF HEPATO-BILIARY-PANCREATIC SCIENCES 2021; 28:801-811. [PMID: 34043880 PMCID: PMC8597098 DOI: 10.1002/jhbp.1000] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2021] [Revised: 04/05/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
Background It is unclear to what extent a board certification system and implementation of clinical guidelines improves the quality of hepatectomy. Methods A web‐based questionnaire survey was administered to departments registered with the National Clinical Database (NCD) in Japan between 1 October 2014 and 31 January 2015. Quality indicators (QIs), including affiliations with academic societies, numbers of board‐certified doctors affiliated with each institute, and adherence to clinical practice guidelines for hepatocellular carcinoma, were evaluated by calculating risk‐adjusted odds ratios (AORs) for 90‐day postoperative mortality of patients who had undergone hepatectomy in 2013 and 2014. Results Of 1255 departments that had registered at least one hepatectomy in NCD, 592 departments, performing 8601 hepatectomies in total, responded to the questionnaire. AORs were significantly lower in departments that were certified as training hospitals by the Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Society, Japanese Society of Hepato‐Biliary‐Pancreatic Surgery (JSHBPS), and Japan Society of Hepatology than in non‐certified departments. Affiliation of three or more JSHBPS‐certified experts or instructors with an institution also contributed to low AORs. None of the QIs regarding implementation of guidelines significantly impacted on the AOR. Conclusions Quality indicator measurements may improve quality of post‐hepatectomy outcomes in Japan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junichi Arita
- Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, Japan Society of Hepatology, Tokyo, Japan.,The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,Hepato-Biliary and Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Yamamoto
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Takashi Kokudo
- Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, Japan Society of Hepatology, Tokyo, Japan.,The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,Hepato-Biliary and Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kiyoshi Hasegawa
- Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, Japan Society of Hepatology, Tokyo, Japan.,The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,Hepato-Biliary and Pancreatic Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.,Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Medicine, Keio University, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Toh
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,National Hospital Organization Kyushu Cancer Center, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Mitsukazu Gotoh
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,Osaka General Medical Center, Osaka, Japan
| | - Norihiro Kokudo
- Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, Japan Society of Hepatology, Tokyo, Japan.,The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,National Center for Global health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yoshihiro Kakeji
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan
| | - Yasuyuki Seto
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, Tokyo, Japan.,National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan.,Gastrointestinal Surgery Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
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8
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Sahara K, Paredes AZ, Tsilimigras DI, Sasaki K, Moro A, Hyer JM, Mehta R, Farooq SA, Wu L, Endo I, Pawlik TM. Machine learning predicts unpredicted deaths with high accuracy following hepatopancreatic surgery. Hepatobiliary Surg Nutr 2021; 10:20-30. [PMID: 33575287 DOI: 10.21037/hbsn.2019.11.30] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2019] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Background Machine learning to predict morbidity and mortality-especially in a population traditionally considered low risk-has not been previously examined. We sought to characterize the incidence of death among patients with a low estimated morbidity and mortality risk based on the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) estimated probability (EP), as well as develop a machine learning model to identify individuals at risk for "unpredicted death" (UD) among patients undergoing hepatopancreatic (HP) procedures. Methods The NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent elective HP surgery between 2012-2017. The risk of morbidity and mortality was stratified into three tiers (low, intermediate, or high estimated) using a k-means clustering method with bin sorting. A machine learning classification tree and multivariable regression analyses were used to predict 30-day mortality with a 10-fold cross validation. C statistics were used to compare model performance. Results Among 63,507 patients who underwent an HP procedure, median patient age was 63 (IQR: 54-71) years. Patients underwent either pancreatectomy (n=38,209, 60.2%) or hepatic resection (n=25,298, 39.8%). Patients were stratified into three tiers of predicted morbidity and mortality risk based on the NSQIP EP: low (n=36,923, 58.1%), intermediate (n=23,609, 37.2%) and high risk (n=2,975, 4.7%). Among 36,923 patients with low estimated risk of morbidity and mortality, 237 patients (0.6%) experienced a UD. According to the classification tree analysis, age was the most important factor to predict UD (importance 16.9) followed by preoperative albumin level (importance: 10.8), disseminated cancer (importance: 6.5), preoperative platelet count (importance: 6.5), and sex (importance 5.9). Among patients deemed to be low risk, the c-statistic for the machine learning derived prediction model was 0.807 compared with an AUC of only 0.662 for the NSQIP EP. Conclusions A prognostic model derived using machine learning methodology performed better than the NSQIP EP in predicting 30-day UD among low risk patients undergoing HP surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kota Sahara
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA.,Gastroenterological Surgery Division, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Anghela Z Paredes
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Diamantis I Tsilimigras
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Kazunari Sasaki
- Department of General Surgery, Digestive Disease and Surgery Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, USA
| | - Amika Moro
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - J Madison Hyer
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Rittal Mehta
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Syeda A Farooq
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Lu Wu
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Itaru Endo
- Gastroenterological Surgery Division, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Timothy M Pawlik
- Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
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9
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Geriatric Risk Prediction Models for Major Gastroenterological Surgery using the National Clinical Database in Japan: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study. Ann Surg 2020; 275:1112-1120. [PMID: 33065635 DOI: 10.1097/sla.0000000000004308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To investigate the effect of geriatric variables on five newly added outcomes and create risk models for predicting these outcomes. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA Because there is a current lack of geriatric research focusing on geriatric outcomes using a national surgical database in Japan, there is a need to investigate outcomes associated with major gastroenterological surgery using these data. METHODS This multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted at 26 surgery departments across 21 institutions in Japan using the National Clinical Database (NCD) surgical registry. In total, 22 new geriatric variables were imported from the ACS NSQIP geriatric pilot study. The following five geriatric outcomes were defined: 1) postoperative delirium, 2) physical function on postoperative day 30, 3) fall risk on discharge, 4) discharge other than home with social service, and 5) functional decline on discharge, and geriatric risk prediction models for major gastroenterological surgery were created. RESULTS Between January 2018 and December 2018, data on 3,981 procedures from seven major gastroenterological surgeries were collected and analyzed. Older age and preoperative geriatric variables (Origin status from home, History of dementia, Use of mobility aid, Fall history, and Not competent on admission) were strongly associated with postoperative outcomes. Geriatric risk prediction models for these outcomes were created, with C-statistic values ranging from 0.74 to 0.90, demonstrating model validity and sufficiency of fit. CONCLUSIONS The risk models for the newly defined five geriatric outcomes that we created can be used in the decision-making process or provision of care in geriatric patients.
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10
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Sahara K, Tsilimigras DI, Paredes AZ, Farooq SA, Hyer JM, Moro A, Mehta R, Wu L, Endo I, Ejaz A, Cloyd J, Pawlik TM. Development and validation of a real-time mortality risk calculator before, during and after hepatectomy: an analysis of the ACS NSQIP database. HPB (Oxford) 2020; 22:1158-1167. [PMID: 31812552 DOI: 10.1016/j.hpb.2019.10.2446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/24/2019] [Revised: 10/24/2019] [Accepted: 10/30/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Although most conventional risk prediction models have been based on preoperative information, intra- and post-operative events may be more relevant to mortality after surgery. We sought to develop a mortality risk calculator based on real time characteristics associated with hepatectomy. METHODS Patients who underwent hepatectomy between 2014 and 2017 were identified in the ACS-NSQIP dataset. Three prediction models (pre-, intra-, post-operative) were developed and validated using perioperative data. RESULTS Among 14,720 patients, 197 (1.3%) experienced 30-day mortality. The predictive ability of the real-time mortality risk calculator was very good based on only preoperative factors (AUC; training cohort: 0.813, validation cohort: 0.731). Incorporating intra-operative variables into the model increased the AUC (training: 0.838, validation: 0.777), while the post-operative model achieved an AUC of 0.922 in the training and 0.885 in the validation cohorts, respectively. While patients with low preoperative risk had only very small fluctuations in the estimated 30-day mortality risk during the intraoperative (Δ0.4%) and postoperative (Δ0.6%) phases, patients who were already deemed high risk preoperatively had additional increased mortality risk based on factors that occurred in the intraoperative (Δ5.4%) and postoperative (Δ9.3%) periods. CONCLUSION A real-time mortality risk calculator may better help clinicians identify patients at risk of death at the different stages of the surgical episode.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kota Sahara
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA; Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Diamantis I Tsilimigras
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Anghela Z Paredes
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Syeda A Farooq
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - J Madison Hyer
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Amika Moro
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Rittal Mehta
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Lu Wu
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Itaru Endo
- Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Yokohama City University School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Aslam Ejaz
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Jordan Cloyd
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Timothy M Pawlik
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center and James Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbus, OH, USA.
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11
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Kakeji Y, Yamamoto H, Ueno H, Eguchi S, Endo I, Sasaki A, Takiguchi S, Takeuchi H, Hashimoto M, Horiguchi A, Masaki T, Marubashi S, Yoshida K, Miyata H, Konno H, Gotoh M, Kitagawa Y, Mori M, Seto Y. Development of gastroenterological surgery over the last decade in Japan: analysis of the National Clinical Database. Surg Today 2020; 51:187-193. [PMID: 32681353 DOI: 10.1007/s00595-020-02075-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2020] [Accepted: 06/05/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan was established in 2010 with the board certification system. A joint committee of 16 gastroenterological surgery database-affiliated organizations has been nurturing this nationwide database and utilizing its data for various analyses. Stepwise board certification systems have been validated by the NCD and are used to improve the surgical outcomes of patients. The use of risk calculators based on risk models can be particularly helpful for establishing appropriate and less invasive surgical treatments for individual patients. Data obtained from the NCD reflect current developments in the surgical approaches used in hospitals, which have progressed from open surgery to endoscopic and robot-assisted procedures. An investigation of the data acquired by the NCD could answer some relevant clinical questions and lead to better surgical management of patients. Furthermore, excellent surgical outcomes can be achieved through international comparisons of the national databases worldwide. This review examines what we have learned from the NCD of gastroenterological surgery and discusses what future developments we can expect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoshihiro Kakeji
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan.
| | - Hiroyuki Yamamoto
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hideki Ueno
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Susumu Eguchi
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Itaru Endo
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Akira Sasaki
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shuji Takiguchi
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroya Takeuchi
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Masaji Hashimoto
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Akihiko Horiguchi
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Tadahiko Masaki
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Shigeru Marubashi
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Kazuhiro Yoshida
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Konno
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mitsukazu Gotoh
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- Database Committee, The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery, 3-1-17 Mita, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
- National Clinical Database, Tokyo, Japan
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12
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Kakeji Y, Takahashi A, Hasegawa H, Ueno H, Eguchi S, Endo I, Sasaki A, Takiguchi S, Takeuchi H, Hashimoto M, Horiguchi A, Masaki T, Marubashi S, Yoshida K, Gotoh M, Konno H, Yamamoto H, Miyata H, Seto Y, Kitagawa Y. Surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery in Japan: Report of the National Clinical Database 2011-2018. Ann Gastroenterol Surg 2020; 4:250-274. [PMID: 32490340 PMCID: PMC7240139 DOI: 10.1002/ags3.12324] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2020] [Accepted: 02/24/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
The National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan grew rapidly, harvesting over 11 million cases of data between 2011 and 2018 from more than 5000 facilities. This is the Report of the NCD based upon gastrointestinal surgery information in 4 420 175 cases from 2011 to 2018. More than 70% of all gastrointestinal surgeries were performed at certified institutions, and the percentage of surgeries performed at certified institutions was particularly high for the esophagus (93.8% in 2018), liver (89.4%), pancreas (91.3%), and spleen (86.9%). Also, more than 70% of the surgeries were performed with the participation of the board-certified surgeon. As the patients have been getting older, the morbidities have been increasing. However, the mortalities have been kept at a low level. The rates of endoscopic surgery have been increasing year by year, especially high in low anterior resection (67.0%) and esophagectomy (61.0%). Nationwide, this database is surely expecting to ensure the quality of board certification system and surgical outcomes in gastroenterological surgery.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Arata Takahashi
- Department of Health Policy and Management School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
| | | | - Hideki Ueno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Susumu Eguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Itaru Endo
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Akira Sasaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Shuji Takiguchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Hiroya Takeuchi
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | | | | | - Tadahiko Masaki
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | | | | | - Mitsukazu Gotoh
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Konno
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Hiroyuki Yamamoto
- Department of Health Policy and Management School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
| | - Hiroaki Miyata
- Department of Health Policy and Management School of Medicine Keio University Tokyo Japan
- Department of Healthcare Quality Assessment Graduate School of Medicine The University of Tokyo Tokyo Japan
| | - Yasuyuki Seto
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
| | - Yuko Kitagawa
- The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery Tokyo Japan
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