Online prediction of subcutaneous glucose concentration for type 1 diabetes using empirical models and frequency-band separation

Data-based algorithms and models using diabetics real data for blood glucose and hypoglycaemia prediction - A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hypoglycaemia prediction play an important role in diabetes management being able to reduce the number of dangerous situations. Thus, it is relevant to present a systematic review on the currently available prediction algorithms and models for hypoglycaemia (or hypoglycemia in US English) prediction.

METHODS

This study aims to systematically review the literature on data-based algorithms and models using diabetics real data for hypoglycaemia prediction. Five electronic databases were screened for studies published from January 2014 to June 2020: ScienceDirect, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, SCOPUS, and PubMed.

RESULTS

Sixty-three eligible studies were retrieved that met the inclusion criteria. The review identifies the current trend in this topic: most of the studies perform short-term predictions (82.5%). Also, the review pinpoints the inputs and shows that information fusion is relevant for hypoglycaemia prediction. Regarding data-based models (80.9%) and hybrid models (19.1%) different predictive techniques are used: Artificial neural network (22.2%), ensemble learning (27.0%), supervised learning (20.6%), statistic/probabilistic (7.9%), autoregressive (7.9%), evolutionary (6.4%), deep learning (4.8%) and adaptative filter (3.2%). Artificial Neural networks and hybrid models show better results.

CONCLUSIONS

The data-based models for blood glucose and hypoglycaemia prediction should be able to provide a good balance between the applicability and performance, integrating complementary data from different sources or from different models. This review identifies trends and possible opportunities for research in this topic.

Model-Fusion-Based Online Glucose Concentration Predictions in People with Type 1 Diabetes

Accurate predictions of glucose concentrations are necessary to develop an artificial pancreas (AP) system for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). In this work, a novel glucose forecasting paradigm based on a model fusion strategy is developed to accurately characterize the variability and transient dynamics of glycemic measurements. To this end, four different adaptive filters and a fusion mechanism are proposed for use in the online prediction of future glucose trajectories. The filter fusion mechanism is developed based on various prediction performance indexes to guide the overall output of the forecasting paradigm. The efficiency of the proposed model fusion based forecasting method is evaluated using simulated and clinical datasets, and the results demonstrate the capability and prediction accuracy of the data-based fusion filters, especially in the case of limited data availability. The model fusion framework may be used in the development of an AP system for glucose regulation in patients with T1D.

Rapid model identification for online subcutaneous glucose concentration prediction for new subjects with type I diabetes

GOAL

For conventional modeling methods, the work of model identification has to be repeated with sufficient data for each subject because different subjects may have different response to exogenous inputs. This may cause repetitive cost and burden for patients and clinicians and require a lot of modeling efforts. Here, to overcome the aforementioned problems, a rapid model development strategy for new subjects is proposed using the idea of model migration for online glucose prediction.

METHODS

First, a base model is obtained that can be empirically identified from any subject or constructed by a priori knowledge. Then, parameters of inputs in the base model are properly revised based on a small amount of new data from new subjects so that the updated models can reflect the specific glucose dynamics excited by inputs for new subjects. These problems are investigated by developing autoregressive models with exogenous inputs (ARX) based on 30 in silico subjects using UVA/Padova metabolic simulator.

RESULTS

The prediction accuracy of the rapid modeling method is comparable to that for subject-dependent modeling method for some cases. Also, it can present better generalization ability.

CONCLUSION

The proposed method can be regarded as an effective and economic modeling method instead of repetitive subject-dependent modeling method especially for lack of modeling data.