Chronic lymphocytic leukemia: A prognostic model comprising only two biomarkers (IGHV mutational status and FISH cytogenetics) separates patients with different outcome and simplifies the CLL-IPI

It is feasible and safe to stop specialized follow-up of asymptomatic lower-risk chronic lymphocytic leukemia

ABSTRACT

Approximately half of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) will never require treatment; nonetheless, they are recommended life-long specialized follow-up (sFU). To prioritize health care resources, local hospital management implemented ending sFU in asymptomatic patients with CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) and CLL without need of treatment (CLL-WONT) low-to-intermediate risk, who were covered by universal health care. To evaluate the feasibility and safety of ending sFU, we investigated 3-year clinical outcomes among 112 patients selected by clinical assessment to end sFU as compared with 88 patients selected to continue sFU. Patients who ended sFU were older, but otherwise lower risk compared with patients continuing sFU. Overall survival (OS) was similar in patients ending and continuing sFU (3-year OS, 87% and 80%, respectively; P = .16). Hospital visits per patient-year were lower (median 0.7 vs 4.3, P < .0001) and time to first infection was longer (P = .035) in patients ending sFU compared with those who continued sFU, including shorter in-hospital antimicrobial treatment (median 4 vs 12 days, respectively; P = .026). Finally, 1 in 6 patients were rereferred, including 4 patients meeting international workshop on CLL criteria for need of treatment. This also resulted in a lower 3-year first treatment rate for patients ending sFU compared with patients continuing sFU (4% vs 23%, respectively; P < .0001). In conclusion, it is feasible and safe to end sFU for patients with CLL who have low-to-intermediate risk CLL-IPI and CLL-WONT scores upon thorough clinical evaluation before ending sFU.

Unmutated IGHV at diagnosis in patients with early stage CLL independently predicts for shorter follow-up time to first treatment (TTFT)

The mutational status of the IGHV gene is routinely assessed in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), since it is both prognostic of clinical outcome and predictive of response to treatment. This study evaluates the IGHV mutational status, assessed in newly diagnosed CLL patients, as a stand-alone predictor of time to first treatment (TTFT). We analysed the data of 236 CLL patients, diagnosed at our centre between January 2004 and September 2020, with a minimum follow-up period of 3.0 years, Binet A-B and Rai 0-II stages. IGHV was unmutated in 38.1 % and mutated in 61.9 % of cases. The univariate analysis showed a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001) in TTFT based on unmutated (85.2 % at 14 years, 95 % CI = 63.3-94.5 %) or mutated (41.3 % at 14 years, 95 % CI = 29.5-51.8 %) and the need for treatment at 1, 3 and 5 years was of 20.0 % vs 4.1 % (p < 0.001), 42.7 % vs 11.4 % (p < 0.001) and 55.8 % vs 20.0 % (p < 0.001) in unmutated and mutated IGHV patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis confirmed that unmutated IGHV status negatively affects TTFT (p < 0.001), in addition to high-risk genomic aberration (p = 0.025), Rai stage I (p = 0.007) and II (p-value < 0.001). The difference in TTFT based on unmutated or mutated IGHV status remains statistically significant also when considering the subgroups by the genomic aberrations and Rai stages. Our findings suggest that, with the single analysis of the IGHV mutational status at CLL diagnosis, along with clinical and laboratory data, and without karyotype and TP53 data, clinicians will have prognostic and predictive indications for the first clinical treatment and appropriate follow-up of patients.

Spotlight on borderline-IGHV mutational status in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Mutated or unmutated immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGHV) gene is an important prognostic factor in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). However, a small fraction of patients with CLL are classified as borderline (BL)-IGHV. Few data are available on this subgroup of CLL. In this paper, we retrospectively report and analyze data from 21 patients with BL-IGHV CLL, showing the heterogeneity of this subgroup of CLL and paving the way for more research focusing on this entity to optimize the management and treatment of patients with Borderline-IGHV CLL.

[Translated article] Adjusted indirect comparison of zanubrutinib and ibrutinib in first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to perform an adjusted indirect treatment comparison, according to the cytogenetic profile, in terms of efficacy between different Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors used as first-line monotherapy for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Safety outcomes considered of interest were also evaluated to establish whether these options can be considered equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

METHOD

A literature search was conducted in Pubmed and Embase on November 10, 2022 for phase III clinical trials studying Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors in monotherapy in the first-line setting for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Results were filtered according to whether the combination of bendamustine and rituximab was used as comparator and whether they had similar populations and follow-up times. Subgroup results were meta-analyzed according to mutational characteristics by classifying patients into high and low cytogenetic risk. An adjusted indirect comparison was developed using Bucher's method. Possible therapeutic equivalence was determined by applying the guide to equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

RESULT

Of the 39 studies obtained in the review, 2 clinical trials were selected: 1 for zanubrutinib and 1 for ibrutinib. The remaining studies were not included because they did not meet the inclusion criteria. The results obtained in the adjusted indirect treatment comparison for both cytogenetic risk subgroups showed no statistically significant differences. The most relevant safety differences were atrial fibrillation, hypertension, and cardiovascular events in patients treated with ibrutinib and higher incidence of secondary cancers in patients treated with zanubrutinib. Applying the equivalent therapeutic alternatives guideline criteria, both treatments cannot be considered equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming the uncertainty associated with the adjusted indirect comparison, zanubrutinib could be considered equivalent in efficacy to ibrutinib, however, the presence of differentiating safety features precludes assigning the 2 alternatives as equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

Adjusted indirect comparison of zanubrutinib and ibrutinib in first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to perform an adjusted indirect treatment comparison, according to the cytogenetic profile, in terms of efficacy between different Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors used as first-line monotherapy for chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Safety outcomes considered of interest were also evaluated to establish whether these options can be considered equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

METHOD

A literature search was conducted in Pubmed and Embase on 10 November 2022 for phase III clinical trials studying Bruton's tyrosine kinase inhibitors in monotherapy in the first-line setting for CLL. Results were filtered according to whether the combination of bendamustine and rituximab was used as comparator and whether they had similar populations and follow-up times. Subgroup results were meta-analyzed according to mutational characteristics by classifying patients into high and low cytogenetic risk. An adjusted indirect comparison was developed using Bucher's method. Possible therapeutic equivalence was determined by applying the guide to equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

RESULT

Of the 39 studies obtained in the review, two clinical trials were selected: one for zanubrutinib and one for ibrutinib. The remaining studies were not included because they did not meet the inclusion criteria. The results obtained in the adjusted indirect treatment comparison for both cytogenetic risk subgroups showed no statistically significant differences. The most relevant safety differences were auricular fibrillation, hypertension and cardiovascular events in patients treated with ibrutinib and higher incidence of secondary cancers in patients treated with zanubrutinib. Applying the ATE guideline criteria, both treatments cannot be considered equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

CONCLUSIONS

Assuming the uncertainty associated with the adjusted indirect comparison, zanubrutinib could be considered equivalent in efficacy to ibrutinib, however, the presence of differentiating safety features precludes assigning the two alternatives as equivalent therapeutic alternatives.

Real-life diagnostic and therapeutic approach to CLL: a 2022 update from an expert panel in Tuscany

A panel of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) experts from Tuscany propose a real-life diagnostic and therapeutic approach CLL that considers the role of genomic and somatic prognostic factors in risk stratification and treatment decisions. Safety and efficacy of new agents has been demonstrated now not only in clinical trials but also in many real-world series. The BTK inhibitors, ibrutinib and acalabrutinib, and BH3 mimetic venetoclax are now indicated as first-line therapy and chemoimmunotherapy can be spared to the majority of CLL patients, thus preventing unnecessary hematological and non-hematological toxicity and second primary tumors. For treatment, FISH for 17 p and P53 mutational status are essential. IGHV mutation can be done at diagnosis or before treatment. Echography is the gold standard radiological investigation in CLL, at both diagnosis and response evaluation. Chemotherapy is virtually abandoned. Age, genetic risk, and patient comorbidities have to be carefully evaluated for treatment decision. With the availability of different drugs, there is a need for a uniform and shared approach in daily therapeutic choice. The proposed approach is based on current evidence and guidelines as well as results from clinical trials and daily clinical experience.

A personalized stepwise dynamic predictive algorithm of the time to first treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Personalized prediction is ideal in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). Although refined models have been developed, stratifying patients in risk groups, it is required to accommodate time-dependent information of patients, to address the clinical heterogeneity observed within these groups. In this direction, this study proposes a personalized stepwise dynamic predictive algorithm (PSDPA) for the time-to-first-treatment of the individual patient. The PSDPA introduces a personalized Score, reflecting the evolution in the patient's follow-up, employed to develop a reference pool of patients. Score evolution's similarity is used to predict, at a selected time point, the time-to-first-treatment for a new patient. Additional patient's biological information may be utilized. The algorithm was applied to 20 CLL patients, indicating that stricter assessment criteria for the Score evolution's similarity, and biological similarity exploitation, may improve prediction. The PSDPA capitalizes on both the follow-up and the biological background of the individual patient, dynamically promoting personalized prediction in CLL.

The Five "Ws" of Frailty Assessment and Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Who, What, Where, Why, and When

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a disease of the elderly, but chronological age does not accurately discriminate frailty status at the inter-individual level. Frailty describes a person's overall resilience. Since CLL is a stressful situation, it is relevant to assess the patient´s degree of frailty, especially before starting antineoplastic treatment. We are in the era of targeted therapies, which have helped to control the disease more effectively and avoid the toxicity of chemo (immuno) therapy. However, these drugs are not free of side effects and other aspects arise that should not be neglected, such as interactions, previous comorbidities, or adherence to treatment, since most of these medications are taken continuously. The challenge we face is to balance the risk of toxicity and efficacy in a personalized way and without forgetting that the most frequent cause of death in CLL is related to the disease. For this purpose, comprehensive geriatric assessment (GA) provides us with the opportunity to evaluate multiple domains that may affect tolerance to treatment and that could be improved with appropriate interventions. In this review, we will analyze the state of the art of GA in CLL through the five Ws.

Genetic markers of chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a retrospective study of 312 patients from a reference center in Lebanon

Aim: Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a highly heterogenous hemopathy. Genetic stratification of CLL patients has important prognostic and therapeutic values - mainly immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region gene (IGHV) mutational status and the presence of cytogenetic abnormalities. The genetics of CLL in Lebanon is scarcely described in the literature. Patients & methods: In this work, we studied the genetic biomarkers of 312 Lebanese CLL patients. Results: Prominent IGHV genes were IGHV4-34, IGHV1-69 and IGHV3-30; and CLL #1 and #5 presented major subsets. Some similarities as well as major differences were highlighted when comparing our data with previously published data. Conclusion: The distribution of IGHV alleles in our series differed from previously described distributions, suggesting involvement of antigenic selection and regional variables in CLL pathogenesis.

Genes selection using deep learning and explainable artificial intelligence for chronic lymphocytic leukemia predicting the need and time to therapy

Analyzing gene expression profiles (GEP) through artificial intelligence provides meaningful insight into cancer disease. This study introduces DeepSHAP Autoencoder Filter for Genes Selection (DSAF-GS), a novel deep learning and explainable artificial intelligence-based approach for feature selection in genomics-scale data. DSAF-GS exploits the autoencoder's reconstruction capabilities without changing the original feature space, enhancing the interpretation of the results. Explainable artificial intelligence is then used to select the informative genes for chronic lymphocytic leukemia prognosis of 217 cases from a GEP database comprising roughly 20,000 genes. The model for prognosis prediction achieved an accuracy of 86.4%, a sensitivity of 85.0%, and a specificity of 87.5%. According to the proposed approach, predictions were strongly influenced by CEACAM19 and PIGP, moderately influenced by MKL1 and GNE, and poorly influenced by other genes. The 10 most influential genes were selected for further analysis. Among them, FADD, FIBP, FIBP, GNE, IGF1R, MKL1, PIGP, and SLC39A6 were identified in the Reactome pathway database as involved in signal transduction, transcription, protein metabolism, immune system, cell cycle, and apoptosis. Moreover, according to the network model of the 3D protein-protein interaction (PPI) explored using the NetworkAnalyst tool, FADD, FIBP, IGF1R, QTRT1, GNE, SLC39A6, and MKL1 appear coupled into a complex network. Finally, all 10 selected genes showed a predictive power on time to first treatment (TTFT) in univariate analyses on a basic prognostic model including IGHV mutational status, del(11q) and del(17p), NOTCH1 mutations, β2-microglobulin, Rai stage, and B-lymphocytosis known to predict TTFT in CLL. However, only IGF1R [hazard ratio (HR) 1.41, 95% CI 1.08-1.84, P=0.013), COL28A1 (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.10-0.97, P=0.045), and QTRT1 (HR 7.73, 95% CI 2.48-24.04, P<0.001) genes were significantly associated with TTFT in multivariable analyses when combined with the prognostic factors of the basic model, ultimately increasing the Harrell's c-index and the explained variation to 78.6% (versus 76.5% of the basic prognostic model) and 52.6% (versus 42.2% of the basic prognostic model), respectively. Also, the goodness of model fit was enhanced (χ2 = 20.1, P=0.002), indicating its improved performance above the basic prognostic model. In conclusion, DSAF-GS identified a group of significant genes for CLL prognosis, suggesting future directions for bio-molecular research.

CD160 receptor in CLL: Current state and future avenues

CD160 is a glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored cell surface glycoprotein expressed on cytotoxic natural killer (NK) cells and T-cell subsets. It plays a crucial role in the activation of NK-cell cytotoxicity and cytokine production. It also modulates the immune system and is involved in some pathologies, such as cancer. CD160 is abnormally expressed in B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) but not expressed in normal B lymphocytes. Its expression in CLL enhances tumor cell proliferation and resistance to apoptosis. CD160 is also a potential prognostic marker for the detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) in CLL, which is important for the clinical management of CLL, the prevention of disease relapse, and the achievement of complete remission. In this review, we present an overview of CD160 and its involvement in the pathophysiology of CLL. We also discuss its use as a prognostic marker for the assessment of MRD in CLL.

Impact of the Types and Relative Quantities of IGHV Gene Mutations in Predicting Prognosis of Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Patients with CLL with mutated IGHV genes (M-CLL) have better outcomes than patients with unmutated IGHVs (U-CLL). Since U-CLL usually express immunoglobulins (IGs) that are more autoreactive and more effectively transduce signals to leukemic B cells, B-cell receptor (BCR) signaling is likely at the heart of the worse outcomes of CLL cases without/few IGHV mutations. A corollary of this conclusion is that M-CLL follow less aggressive clinical courses because somatic IGHV mutations have altered BCR structures and no longer bind stimulatory (auto)antigens and so cannot deliver trophic signals to leukemic B cells. However, the latter assumption has not been confirmed in a large patient cohort. We tried to address the latter by measuring the relative numbers of replacement (R) mutations that lead to non-conservative amino acid changes (Rnc) to the combined numbers of conservative (Rc) and silent (S) amino acid R mutations that likely do not or cannot change amino acids, "(S+Rc) to Rnc IGHV mutation ratio". When comparing time-to-first-treatment (TTFT) of patients with (S+Rc)/Rnc ≤ 1 and >1, TTFTs were similar, even after matching groups for equal numbers of samples and identical numbers of mutations per sample. Thus, BCR structural change might not be the main reason for better outcomes for M-CLL. Since the total number of IGHV mutations associated better with longer TTFT, better clinical courses appear due to the biologic state of a B cell having undergone many stimulatory events leading to IGHV mutations. Analyses of larger patient cohorts will be needed to definitively answer this question.

Serum soluble CD23 levels are an independent predictor of time to first treatment in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Serum soluble CD23 (sCD23) levels have been acknowledged as a prognostic factor in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), but their potential relevance has not been analyzed in recent times. We retrospectively studied 338 CLL, small lymphocytic lymphoma, or CLL-type monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis patients from a single institution, with available sCD23 levels at diagnosis. Baseline features and outcomes were compared between patients with sCD23 ≤/>1000 UI/L. The 140 patients (41%) who had sCD23 > 1000 UI/L showed adverse-risk clinical and biological characteristics. High sCD23 levels were predictive of a shorter time to first treatment (5-year probability of requiring treatment: 60 vs. 20%, p < 0.0001; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.72, p = 0.003 in a multivariable model also including the CLL International Prognostic Index and the absolute lymphocyte count), and a poorer 5-year overall survival (70 vs. 82%, p = 0.0009). These data suggest the potential of sCD23 to predict treatment-free survival and to shed light on mechanisms of activity and resistance to CD23-directed therapies.

Recurrent Chromosomal Abnormalities in Tissues Involved by Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia/Small Lymphocytic Lymphoma

OBJECTIVES

Prognostically relevant chromosomal abnormalities in chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) are routinely identified by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) on peripheral blood or bone marrow specimens. We studied the prevalence of chromosomal abnormalities on extramedullary tissues involved by CLL/SLL and evaluated their association with prominent proliferation centers (PPCs).

METHODS

FISH for recurrent abnormalities in CLL/SLL was performed on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded biopsy sections. PPCs were identified on H&E-stained sections. Available FISH results on peripheral blood or bone marrow specimens were also reviewed.

RESULTS

Recurrent FISH abnormalities were detected in 69% of 320 CLL/SLL biopsy specimens studied, including +12 (35%), 13q- (24%), 11q- (15%), 17p- (6%), 6q- (2%), and IGH/BCL2 (0.9%). Forty-three patients had abnormal blood or bone marrow FISH analyses, of whom 7 (16%) had discordant +12 and/or 13q-, and 3 (7%) had discordant 17p- or 11q-. Morphology was positive (17%), negative (78%), or equivocal (6%) for PPCs on 247 evaluable biopsy specimens, a finding not significantly associated with FISH results (P = .7).

CONCLUSIONS

Trisomy 12 is overrepresented in tumoral CLL/SLL involvement, compared with the known predominance of 13q- in blood. Discrepancies between leukemic and tissue FISH findings are occasionally encountered. FISH results do not correlate with the presence of PPCs.

Identifying patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia without need of treatment: End of endless watch and wait?

INTRODUCTION

Early-stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) challenges specialized management and follow-up.

METHODS

We developed and validated a prognostic index to identify newly diagnosed patients without need of treatment (CLL-WONT) by a training/validation approach using data on 4708 patients. Composite scores derived from weighted hazards by multivariable analysis defined CLL-WONT risk groups.

RESULTS

Age (>65 years: 1 point), Binet stage (B: 2 points), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (>205 U/L: 1 point), absolute lymphocyte count (15-30 × 10⁹ /L: 1 point; >30 × 10⁹ /L; 2 points), β2-microglobulin (>4 mg/L: 1 point), IGHV mutation status (unmutated: 1 point), and 11q or 17p deletion (1 point) were independently associated with shorter time to first treatment (TTFT). Low-risk patients demonstrated 5-year TTFT of 2% by internal validation, but 7-19% by external validation. Including all patients with complete scores, the 5-year TTFT was 10% for the 756 (39%) CLL-WONT low-risk patients, and the 704 (37%) patients who were both CLL-WONT and CLL-IPI low risk demonstrated even lower 5-year TTFT (8%).

CONCLUSION

We have adopted the CLL-WONT at an institution covering 1 800 000 individuals to allow patients with both low-risk CLL-WONT and CLL-IPI to be managed by primary healthcare providers, thereby prioritizing specialized hematology services for patients in dire need.

Angiogenic factors could help us to define patients obtaining complete response with undetectable minimal residual disease in untreated CLL patients treated by FCR: results from the CLL2010FMP, a FILO study

Angiogenesis is in a constant balance between pro and anti-angiogenic factors. Neoangiogenesis, implicated in metastatic spreading is characterized in solid cancers, but fairly new in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We hypothesize that secretion of angiogenic factors could be correlated to the pathogenesis of CLL, and therefore predict the outcome of patients. We investigated concentrations of 22 cytokines and chemokines in 137 non-del 17p B-CLL patients, treated with a fludarabine-cyclophosphamide-rituximab (FCR)-based regimen. We constructed a biomarker index defining different risk groups based on lymphocyte count, the intensity of CD20 antigen on CD19⁺ cells, Ang-2, and PDGF-BB plasma concentrations at diagnosis. Four groups were defined, exhibiting specific molecular signatures and correlated with progression-free survival of patients. Our results suggest that we can determine at diagnosis of non-del 17p B-CLL patients, those with a very high probability of progression-free survival, independently of IGVH mutational status and residual disease at the end of treatment.

[Comparison of four prognostic scoring system in patients with early asymptomatic chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients]

Objective: To compare the prognostic value of four prognostic models in predicting time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with Binet A Chinese chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) . Methods: This retrospective analysis included one hundred and ten patients with Binet A CLL, initially diagnosed in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (Pukou CLL center) from June 2009 to January 2020. Risk stratification was conducted according to IPS-E, CLL-IPI, CLL1-PM, and Barcelona-Brno prognostic models. Results: Among 110 patients with Binet A CLL patients, the median age was 58 (25-84) years. The median follow-up time was 35 (4-189) months, and 57 (51.8%) patients met the indication for treatment due to symptomatic disease progression during follow-up. Log-rank analysis of nine variables was conducted involving age, Rai stage, absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) , lymph node size, lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) , β(2)-Microglobulin, IGHV status, TP53, and Del (11q) . Additionally, Rai Ⅰ-Ⅲ, ALC>15×10(9)/L, palpable lymph node size ≥1cm, β(2)-Microglobulin>3.5 mg/L, unmutated IGHV, TP53 mutation or deletion, and 11q deletion were independent risk factors of TTFT. Predictive value of each model was assessed by Harrel C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC) with CLL1-PM (C-index=0.736, AIC=777) , followed by CLL-IPI (C-index=0.722, AIC=933) , IPS-E (C-index=0.683, AIC=1004) , and Barcelona-Brno prognostic model (C-index=0.663, AIC=986) . Conclusion: All four prognostic models effectively predicted TTFT. IPS-E might be an ideal model to guide clinical surveillance because of its easy accessibility and low expenses in routine clinical practice. Therefore, for patients receiving fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and next-generation sequencing (NGS) examination at diagnosis, CLL-IPI or CLL1-PM could be applied to evaluate their prognosis more comprehensively.

Artificial intelligence models in chronic lymphocytic leukemia - recommendations toward state-of-the-art

Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and predictive modeling are becoming enabling technologies in many day-to-day applications. Translation of these advances to the patient's bedside for AI assisted interventions is not yet the norm. With specific emphasis on CLL, here, we review the progress of prognostic models in hematology and highlight sources of stagnation that may be limiting significant improvements in prognostication in the near future. We discuss issues related to performance, trust, modeling simplicity, and prognostic marker robustness and find that the major limiting factor in progressing toward state-of-the-art prognostication within the hematological community, is not the lack of able AI algorithms but rather, the lack of their adoption. Current models in CLL still deal with the 'average' patient while the use of patient-centric approaches remains absent. Using lessons from research areas where machine learning has become an enabling technology, we derive recommendations and propose methods for achieving state-of-the-art predictions in modeling health data, that can be readily adopted by the CLL modeling community.

A perspective on prognostic models in chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the era of targeted agents

Despite the increase in the number of prognostic models currently available for evaluating patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), their current application and utilization in clinical practice in the era of targeted agents is unclear. A critical reappraisal of recently developed prognostic models is presented in this review. The underlying CLL's genetic instability and changes in the host's health and comorbidities can all contribute to the acquisition of additional risk factors for adverse outcomes during the course of the disease. Therefore, available risk models solely based on pretreatment variables only partially predict patients' clinical outcome. A dynamic prognostic model that takes into account changes in the risk profile over time could indeed be useful in routine clinical practice. The next generation of risk assessment models should incorporate post-treatment and response biomarkers such as minimal residual disease. Finally, recent advances in the field of machine learning present novel opportunities to generate models capable of providing an individualized estimation of clinical outcomes in CLL. However, in the era of improved prognostic models, it is important to remember that these indices should supplement but not replace clinical expertise and medical decision-making.

Cell therapy of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: Transplants and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cells

There is substantial progress in the therapy of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), much of it the result of new drug development. As such the definition of high-risk CLL is changing. Nevertheless, few persons with CLL are cured with current therapy. Two types of cell therapies of CLL are currently being evaluated or re-evaluated in the context of these advances: haematopoietic cell transplants and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T-cells. We discuss the potential role of these cell therapies in the context of the evolving therapy topography of CLL including how these therapies work and who, if anyone, is an appropriate candidate for cell therapy.

Lymphocyte doubling time in chronic lymphocytic leukemia modern era: a real-life study in 848 unselected patients

The prognostic significance of lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) was identified when the biology of the disease was poorly understood and therapy was not effective. We assessed the clinical and biological significance of LDT in 848 CLL patients in a real-life setting and the context of new biomarkers and effective therapy. A short LDT (≤12 months) was enriched for adverse biomarkers. Patients with a rapid LDT did need therapy shortly after diagnosis (median 23 months vs. not reached; p < 0.001) and had a poorer overall survival (median 95 months vs. not reached p < 0.001). LDT, IGHV mutational status, Beta-2 microglobulin, and Rai clinical stage were independent predictors for time to first treatment in the whole series and in Binet stage A patients. No correlation was observed between LDT and response to chemoimmunotherapy. However, a short LDT along with age ≥65 years, high-risk FISH (del(17p), del(11q)), unmutated IGHV, increased Beta-2 microglobulin, and TP53 mutations predicted short survival. Moreover, the prognostic significance of LDT was independent of the CLL-IPI and the Barcelona/Brno prognostic model. LDT remains an important outcome marker in the modern CLL era and should be incorporated into the clinical assessment and stratification of CLL patients.

The CLL International Prognostic Index predicts outcomes in monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and Rai 0 CLL

The utility of the chronic lymphocytic leukemia-international prognostic index (CLL-IPI) in predicting outcomes of individuals with Rai 0 stage CLL and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL) is unclear. We identified 969 individuals (415 MBL and 554 Rai 0 CLL; median age, 64 years; 65% men) seen at Mayo Clinic between 1 January 2001 and 1 October 2018, and ascertained time to first therapy (TTFT) and overall survival (OS). After a median follow up of 7 years, the risk of disease progression needing therapy was 2.9%/y for MBL (median, not reached) and 5%/y for Rai 0 CLL (median, 10.4 years). Among patients with low, intermediate, and high/very high-risk CLL-IPI risk groups, the estimated 5-year risk of TTFT was 13.5%, 30%, and 58%, respectively, P< .0001 (c-statistic = 0.69); and the estimated 5-year OS was 96.3%, 91.5%, and 76%, respectively, P< .0001 (c-statistic = 0.65). In a multivariable analysis of absolute B-cell count with individual factors of the CLL-IPI, the absolute B-cell count was associated with shorter TTFT (hazard ratio [HR] for each 10 × 109/L increase: 1.31; P< .0001) and shorter OS (HR: 1.1; P = .02). The OS of the entire cohort was similar to that of the age- and sex-matched general population of Minnesota (P = .17), although Rai 0 CLL patients with high and very high-risk CLL-IPI score had significantly shorter OS (P= .01 and P= .0001, respectively). The results of this study demonstrate the ability of CLL-IPI to predict time from diagnosis to first treatment (an end point not affected by therapy) in a large cohort of patients whose only manifestation of disease is a circulating clonal lymphocyte population.

Chemoimmunotherapy in the First-Line Treatment of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia: Dead Yet, or Alive and Kicking?

The paradigm of first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is currently undergoing a radical change. On the basis of several randomised phase III trials showing prolongation of progression-free survival, chemoimmunotherapy is being replaced by treatment based on novel, orally available targeted inhibitors such as Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors ibrutinib and acalabrutinib or bcl-2 inhibitor venetoclax. However, the use of these agents may be associated with other disadvantages. First, with the exception of one trial in younger/fit patients, no studies have so far demonstrated benefit regarding the ultimate endpoint of overall survival. Second, oral inhibitors are extremely expensive and thus currently unavailable due to the absence of reimbursement in some countries. Third, treatment with ibrutinib and acalabrutinib necessitates long-term administration until progression; this may be associated with accumulation of late side effects, problems with patient compliance, and selection of resistant clones. Therefore, the identification of a subset of patients who could benefit from chemoimmunotherapy would be ideal. Current data suggest that patients with the mutated variable region of the immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGHV) achieve fairly durable remissions, especially when treated with fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab (FCR) regimen. This review discusses current options for treatment-naïve patients with CLL.

The Evolving Landscape of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia on Diagnosis, Prognosis and Treatment

The knowledge of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has progressively deepened during the last forty years. Research activities and clinical studies have been remarkably fruitful in novel findings elucidating multiple aspects of the pathogenesis of the disease, improving CLL diagnosis, prognosis and treatment. Whereas the diagnostic criteria for CLL have not substantially changed over time, prognostication has experienced an expansion with the identification of new biological and genetic biomarkers. Thanks to next-generation sequencing (NGS), an unprecedented number of gene mutations were identified with potential prognostic and predictive value in the 2010s, although significant work on their validation is still required before they can be used in a routine clinical setting. In terms of treatment, there has been an impressive explosion of new approaches based on targeted therapies for CLL patients during the last decade. In this current chemotherapy-free era, BCR and BCL2 inhibitors have changed the management of CLL patients and clearly improved their prognosis and quality of life. In this review, we provide an overview of these novel advances, as well as point out questions that should be further addressed to continue improving the outcomes of patients.

From Biomarkers to Models in the Changing Landscape of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Evolve or Become Extinct

Simple Summary

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is characterized by a highly variable clinical course. Thus, predicting the outcome of patients with this disease is a topic of special interest. The rapidly changing treatment landscape of CLL has questioned the value of classical biomarkers and prognostic models. Herein we examine the current state-of-the-art of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in the setting of new oral targeted agents with special focus on the most controversial findings over the last years. We also discuss the available information on the role of “old” and “new” prognostic models in the era of oral small molecules.

Abstract

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. With the advent of oral targeted agents (Tas) the treatment of CLL has undergone a revolution, which has been accompanied by an improvement in patient’s survival and quality of life. This paradigm shift also affects the value of prognostic and predictive biomarkers and prognostic models, most of them inherited from the chemoimmunotherapy era but with a different behavior with Tas. This review discusses: (i) the role of the most relevant prognostic and predictive biomarkers in the setting of Tas; and (ii) the validity of classic and new scoring systems in the context of Tas. In addition, a critical point of view about predictive biomarkers with special emphasis on 11q deletion, novel resistance mutations, TP53 abnormalities, IGHV mutational status, complex karyotype and NOTCH1 mutations is stated. We also go over prognostic models in early stage CLL such as IPS-E. Finally, we provide an overview of the applicability of the CLL-IPI for patients treated with Tas, as well as the emergence of new models, generated with data from patients treated with Tas.

Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia can be divided into three categories: those who are minimally affected by the problem, often never requiring therapy; those that initially follow an indolent course but subsequently progress and require therapy; and those that from the point of diagnosis exhibit an aggressive disease necessitating treatment. Likewise, such patients pass through three phases: development of the disease, diagnosis, and need for therapy. Finally, the leukemic clones of all patients appear to require continuous input from the exterior, most often through membrane receptors, to allow them to survive and grow. This review is presented according to the temporal course that the disease follows, focusing on those external influences from the tissue microenvironment (TME) that support the time lines as well as those internal influences that are inherited or develop as genetic and epigenetic changes occurring over the time line. Regarding the former, special emphasis is placed on the input provided via the B-cell receptor for antigen and the C-X-C-motif chemokine receptor-4 and the therapeutic agents that block these inputs. Regarding the latter, prominence is laid upon inherited susceptibility genes and the genetic and epigenetic abnormalities that lead to the developmental and progression of the disease.

Recent progress of prognostic biomarkers and risk scoring systems in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most prevalent adult leukemia with high heterogeneity in the western world. Thus, investigators identified a number of prognostic biomarkers and scoring systems to guide treatment decisions and validated them in the context of immunochemotherapy. A better understanding of prognostic biomarkers, including serum markers, flow cytometry outcomes, IGHV mutation status, microRNAs, chromosome aberrations and gene mutations, have contributed to prognosis in CLL. Del17p/ TP53 mutation, NOTCH1 mutation, CD49d, IGHV mutation status, complex karyotypes and microRNAs were reported to be of predictive values to guide clinical decisions. Based on the biomarkers above, classic prognostic models, such as the Rai and Binet staging systems, MDACC nomogram, GCLLSG model and CLL-IPI, were developed to improve risk stratification and tailor treatment intensity. Considering the presence of novel agents, many investigators validated the conventional prognostic biomarkers in the setting of novel agents and only TP53 mutation status/del 17p and CD49d expression were reported to be of prognostic value. Whether other prognostic indicators and models can be used in the context of novel agents, further studies are required.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia: from molecular pathogenesis to novel therapeutic strategies

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is a well-defined lymphoid neoplasm with very heterogeneous biological and clinical behavior. The last decade has been remarkably fruitful in novel findings elucidating multiple aspects of the pathogenesis of the disease including mechanisms of genetic susceptibility, insights into the relevance of immunogenetic factors driving the disease, profiling of genomic alterations, epigenetic subtypes, global epigenomic tumor cell reprogramming, modulation of tumor cell and microenvironment interactions, and dynamics of clonal evolution from early steps in monoclonal B cell lymphocytosis to progression and transformation into diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. All this knowledge has offered new perspectives that are being exploited therapeutically with novel target agents and management strategies. In this review we provide an overview of these novel advances and highlight questions and perspectives that need further progress to translate into the clinics the biological knowledge and improve the outcome of the patients.

Prognostic models for newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is the most common cancer of the lymphatic system in Western countries. Several clinical and biological factors for CLL have been identified. However, it remains unclear which of the available prognostic models combining those factors can be used in clinical practice to predict long-term outcome in people newly-diagnosed with CLL.

OBJECTIVES

To identify, describe and appraise all prognostic models developed to predict overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or treatment-free survival (TFS) in newly-diagnosed (previously untreated) adults with CLL, and meta-analyse their predictive performances.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (from January 1950 to June 2019 via Ovid), Embase (from 1974 to June 2019) and registries of ongoing trials (to 5 March 2020) for development and validation studies of prognostic models for untreated adults with CLL. In addition, we screened the reference lists and citation indices of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all prognostic models developed for CLL which predict OS, PFS, or TFS, provided they combined prognostic factors known before treatment initiation, and any studies that tested the performance of these models in individuals other than the ones included in model development (i.e. 'external model validation studies'). We included studies of adults with confirmed B-cell CLL who had not received treatment prior to the start of the study. We did not restrict the search based on study design.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form to collect information based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Independent pairs of review authors screened references, extracted data and assessed risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). For models that were externally validated at least three times, we aimed to perform a quantitative meta-analysis of their predictive performance, notably their calibration (proportion of people predicted to experience the outcome who do so) and discrimination (ability to differentiate between people with and without the event) using a random-effects model. When a model categorised individuals into risk categories, we pooled outcome frequencies per risk group (low, intermediate, high and very high). We did not apply GRADE as guidance is not yet available for reviews of prognostic models.

MAIN RESULTS

From 52 eligible studies, we identified 12 externally validated models: six were developed for OS, one for PFS and five for TFS. In general, reporting of the studies was poor, especially predictive performance measures for calibration and discrimination; but also basic information, such as eligibility criteria and the recruitment period of participants was often missing. We rated almost all studies at high or unclear risk of bias according to PROBAST. Overall, the applicability of the models and their validation studies was low or unclear; the most common reasons were inappropriate handling of missing data and serious reporting deficiencies concerning eligibility criteria, recruitment period, observation time and prediction performance measures. We report the results for three models predicting OS, which had available data from more than three external validation studies: CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) This score includes five prognostic factors: age, clinical stage, IgHV mutational status, B2-microglobulin and TP53 status. Calibration: for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, the pooled five-year survival per risk group from validation studies corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study. In the very high-risk group, predicted survival from CLL-IPI was lower than observed from external validation studies. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of seven external validation studies (3307 participants, 917 events) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.77). The 95% prediction interval (PI) of this model for the c-statistic, which describes the expected interval for the model's discriminative ability in a new external validation study, ranged from 0.59 to 0.83. Barcelona-Brno score Aimed at simplifying the CLL-IPI, this score includes three prognostic factors: IgHV mutational status, del(17p) and del(11q). Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk group, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of four external validation studies (1755 participants, 416 events) was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.67); 95% PI 0.59 to 0.68. MDACC 2007 index score The authors presented two versions of this model including six prognostic factors to predict OS: age, B2-microglobulin, absolute lymphocyte count, gender, clinical stage and number of nodal groups. Only one validation study was available for the more comprehensive version of the model, a formula with a nomogram, while seven studies (5127 participants, 994 events) validated the simplified version of the model, the index score. Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk groups, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of the seven external validation studies for the index score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70); 95% PI 0.51 to 0.77.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large number of published studies of prognostic models for OS, PFS or TFS for newly-diagnosed, untreated adults with CLL, only a minority of these (N = 12) have been externally validated for their respective primary outcome. Three models have undergone sufficient external validation to enable meta-analysis of the model's ability to predict survival outcomes. Lack of reporting prevented us from summarising calibration as recommended. Of the three models, the CLL-IPI shows the best discrimination, despite overestimation. However, performance of the models may change for individuals with CLL who receive improved treatment options, as the models included in this review were tested mostly on retrospective cohorts receiving a traditional treatment regimen. In conclusion, this review shows a clear need to improve the conducting and reporting of both prognostic model development and external validation studies. For prognostic models to be used as tools in clinical practice, the development of the models (and their subsequent validation studies) should adapt to include the latest therapy options to accurately predict performance. Adaptations should be timely.

Refractory and 17p-deleted chronic lymphocytic leukemia: improving survival with pathway inhibitors and allogeneic stem cell transplantation

Refractory/early relapsed and 17p deletion/p53 mutation (del(17p)/TP53mut)-positive chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has been conventionally considered a high-risk disease, potentially eligible for treatment with allogeneic stem cell transplantation (alloSCT). In this multicenter retrospective analysis of 157 patients, we compared the outcomes of patients with high-risk CLL treated with alloSCT, a B-cell receptor pathway inhibitor (BCRi), and both. Seventy-one patients were treated with BCRis, 67 patients underwent reduced-intensity conditioning alloSCT, and 19 received alloSCT with a BCRi before and/or after transplantation. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses were performed to compare the alloSCT and no-alloSCT groups; in the 2 groups, 5-year OS, PFS, and cumulative incidence of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and relapse were 40% versus 60% (P = .096), 34% versus 17% (P = .638), 28% versus 5% (P = .016), and 38% versus 83% (P = .005), respectively. Patients treated with alloSCT plus BCRi had a 3-year OS of 83%. The 3-year OS and NRM by year of alloSCT, including patients treated with BCRi, were 53% and 17% in 2000 to 2007, 55% and 30% in 2008 to 2012, and 72% and 18% in 2013 to 2018. In conclusion, the combination of pathway inhibitors and alloSCT is feasible and may further improve the outcome of high-risk CLL patients.

Resveratrol Enhances mRNA and siRNA Lipid Nanoparticles Primary CLL Cell Transfection

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common adult leukemia in Western populations. Therapies such as mRNA and siRNA encapsulated in lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) represent a clinically advanced platform and are utilized for a wide variety of applications. Unfortunately, transfection of RNA into CLL cells remains a formidable challenge and a bottleneck for developing targeted therapies for this disease. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the barriers to efficient transfection of RNA-encapsulated LNPs into primary CLL cells to advance therapies in the future. To this end, we transfected primary CLL patient samples with mRNA and siRNA payloads encapsulated in an FDA-approved LNP formulation and characterized the transfection. Additionally, we tested the potential of repurposing caffeic acid, curcumin and resveratrol to enhance the transfection of nucleic acids into CLL cells. The results demonstrate that the rapid uptake of LNPs is required for successful transfection. Furthermore, we demonstrate that resveratrol enhances the delivery of both mRNA and siRNA encapsulated in LNPs into primary CLL patient samples, overcoming inter-patient heterogeneity. This study points out the important challenges to consider for efficient RNA therapeutics for CLL patients and advocates the use of resveratrol in combination with RNA lipid nanoparticles to enhance delivery into CLL cells.

Genomic and Epigenomic Alterations in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is a common disease in Western countries and has heterogeneous clinical behavior. The relevance of the genetic basis of the disease has come to the forefront recently, with genome-wide studies that have provided a comprehensive view of structural variants, somatic mutations, and different layers of epigenetic changes. The mutational landscape is characterized by relatively common copy number alterations, a few mutated genes occurring in 10-15% of cases, and a large number of genes mutated in a small number of cases. The epigenomic profile has revealed a marked reprogramming of regulatory regions in tumor cells compared with normal B cells. All of these alterations are differentially distributed in clinical and biological subsets of the disease, indicating that they may underlie the heterogeneous evolution of the disease. These global studies are revealing the molecular complexity of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and provide new perspectives that have helped to understand its pathogenic mechanisms and improve the clinical management of patients.

International prognostic score for asymptomatic early-stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Most patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) are diagnosed with early-stage disease and managed with active surveillance. The individual course of patients with early-stage CLL is heterogeneous, and their probability of needing treatment is hardly anticipated at diagnosis. We aimed at developing an international prognostic score to predict time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with CLL with early, asymptomatic disease (International Prognostic Score for Early-stage CLL [IPS-E]). Individual patient data from 11 international cohorts of patients with early-stage CLL (n = 4933) were analyzed to build and validate the prognostic score. Three covariates were consistently and independently correlated with TTFT: unmutated immunoglobulin heavy variable gene (IGHV), absolute lymphocyte count higher than 15 × 109/L, and presence of palpable lymph nodes. The IPS-E was the sum of the covariates (1 point each), and separated low-risk (score 0), intermediate-risk (score 1), and high-risk (score 2-3) patients showing a distinct TTFT. The score accuracy was validated in 9 cohorts staged by the Binet system and 1 cohort staged by the Rai system. The C-index was 0.74 in the training series and 0.70 in the aggregate of validation series. By meta-analysis of the training and validation cohorts, the 5-year cumulative risk for treatment start was 8.4%, 28.4%, and 61.2% among low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients, respectively. The IPS-E is a simple and robust prognostic model that predicts the likelihood of treatment requirement in patients with early-stage CLL. The IPS-E can be useful in clinical management and in the design of early intervention clinical trials.

Mitochondrial Genome-Derived circRNA mc-COX2 Functions as an Oncogene in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Circular RNAs (circRNAs), a novel family of non-coding RNAs, play crucial roles in cancer progression. While the existing research focuses on nuclear genome-derived (nu)-circRNAs, the biological and clinical characteristics of mitochondrial genome-derived (mt)-circRNAs remain largely unknown, especially in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In this study, we attempted to identify the novel characteristics of mc-COX2 (mitochondrial genome-derived circRNAs [mc]), one of the mt-circRNAs that can be involved in CLL progression. mt-circRNAs were found to be highly expressed in the plasma exosomes of CLL patients. The endogenous reduction of mc-COX2 can affect mitochondrial functions, suppress cell proliferation, and induce cell apoptosis. The upregulation of mc-COX2 was positively associated with leukemogenesis and worsening survival of CLL patients. Notably, functional analysis revealed that mc-COX2, as differing from conventional nu-circRNAs, was less stable and may function through novel mechanisms other than acting as the competing endogenous RNA. We also screened and tested several chemical compounds and small-molecule inhibitors that can decrease the generation of mc-COX2. It was found that the silencing of mc-COX2 in CLL cells strengthened the anti-tumor effects of drugs used in coordination. Our findings prove that mc-COX2, a critical mt-circRNA highly expressed in plasma, derived from CLL cells and delivered by exosomes, is associated with the progression and prognosis of CLL.

Prognostic model for newly diagnosed CLL patients in Binet stage A: results of the multicenter, prospective CLL1 trial of the German CLL study group

The heterogeneity of early stage CLL challenges prognostication, and refinement of prognostic indices for risk-adapted management in this population is essential. The aim of the multicenter, prospective CLL1 trial was to explore a novel prognostic model (CLL1-PM) developed to identify risk groups, separating patients with favorable from others with dismal prognosis. A cohort of 539 clinically, biochemically, and genetically characterized Binet stage A patients were observed until progression, first-line treatment, or death. Multivariate analysis identified six independent factors associated with overall survival (OS) and time-to-first treatment (TTFT): del(17p), unmutated IGHV, del(11q), ß2-microglobulin >3.5 mg/dL, lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) <12 months, and age >60 years. These factors were integrated into the CLL1-PM, which stratified patients into four risk groups. The CLL1-PM was prognostic for OS and TTFT, e.g., the risk of treatment at 5 years was 85.9, 51.8, 27.6, and 11.3% for very low (0-1.5), low (2-4), high (4.5-6.5), and very high-risk (7-14) scores, respectively (P < 0.001). Notably, in addition to factors comprising CLL-IPI, we substantiated del(11q) and LDT as prognostic factors in early CLL. Altogether, our findings would be useful to effectively stratify Binet stage A patients, particularly within the scope of clinical trials evaluating novel agents.

Machine learning can identify newly diagnosed patients with CLL at high risk of infection

Infections have become the major cause of morbidity and mortality among patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) due to immune dysfunction and cytotoxic CLL treatment. Yet, predictive models for infection are missing. In this work, we develop the CLL Treatment-Infection Model (CLL-TIM) that identifies patients at risk of infection or CLL treatment within 2 years of diagnosis as validated on both internal and external cohorts. CLL-TIM is an ensemble algorithm composed of 28 machine learning algorithms based on data from 4,149 patients with CLL. The model is capable of dealing with heterogeneous data, including the high rates of missing data to be expected in the real-world setting, with a precision of 72% and a recall of 75%. To address concerns regarding the use of complex machine learning algorithms in the clinic, for each patient with CLL, CLL-TIM provides explainable predictions through uncertainty estimates and personalized risk factors.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia is an indolent disease, and many patients succumb to infection rather than the direct effects of the disease. Here, the authors use medical records and machine learning to predict the patients that may be at risk of infection, which may enable a change in the course of their treatment.

Clinical significance of TP53 aberrations and IGHV mutational status in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a very heterogeneous disease with a variable clinical course. On the one side of the spectrum, there are patients with aggressive and resistant disease, of which they die only a few months after diagnosis while, on the other side, there are patients with an indolent, slowly progressive disease that does not require treatment for decades. The reasons for this are only partially known, but they have been the subject of numerous scientific studies during the last several decades. Consequently, the concept of prognostic and predictive factors in CLL have emerged, which aims to predict the clinical course and its therapeutic outcome. With the improvement of understanding the pathophysiology of this disease, the lists of prognostic and predictive factors are getting longer every year, but they also overlap. In this review, we singled out the aberrations of the TP53 gene and the IGHV (immunoglobulin heavy variable) gene mutational status as the two most important and most studied factors that have both prognostic and predictive significance.

Predicting the outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: Progress and uncertainty

Because chronic lymphocytic leukemia is a heterogeneous disease, there are considerable efforts underway to develop increasingly accurate and precise analytics with which to estimate the probability of future events such as the need for and probability of response to therapy, progression-free survival, and survival. These analytics typically are constructed from clinical and laboratory variables. These variables often are combined into scores or staging systems, some of which are prognostic (therapy-independent), whereas others are predictive (therapy-dependent). Predictive variables differ with different therapies. Because response to therapy is a necessary condition for the improvement of survival, predictive biomarkers are extremely important. However, despite some progress to identify new predictive biomarkers, del(17p)/TP53 mutation remains the only widely accepted variable used to guide therapy. New laboratory techniques and analytical tools may contribute to improvements in the precision and accuracy of outcome indicators. However, there are inherent limitations when applying cohort-based estimates to individuals within the cohort. The accuracy and precision of prediction also are limited by measurement error and chance. Ultimately, estimating outcomes requires a careful balance between clinical experience, imperfect prediction, and uncertainty.

Examination of clonal evolution in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is one of the most frequent lymphoproliferative diseases. CLL is characterized by unusual heterogeneity, which probably reflects its biological and genetic lack of homogeneity. Clonal chromosome aberrations belong to the most important prognostic and predictive factors in CLL. This research was aimed at observing clonal evolution in CLL at the chromosomal level, and assessing its clinical significance in relation to selected prognostic factors. The study involved 72 untreated patients with CLL. The preliminary investigations using cytogenetic banding analysis (CBA) and FISH were performed at the time of diagnosis, and again after about 24 months to observe clonal changes (clonal evolution). In addition, other parameters were evaluated, i.e., the expression of ZAP-70 kinase, CD38 antigen, and the mutation statuses of IGVH and NOTCH1 genes. Classic prognostic factors, i.e., categorized ZAP70 and CD38 expressions as well as mutations in IGVH and NOTCH1 genes did not influence the course of clonal evolution in the examined group of patients. Clonal evolution was detected in 45.8% of patients by means of CBA, and in 19.4% patients with FISH. Analysis of chromosomal aberrations in the examined group of patients showed that the incidence of 17p deletions and translocations in karyotypes has a negative impact on overall survival. CE was found to be a risk factor for the occurrence of disease progression (OR = 2.22). Our observations indicate that combined CBA and FISH are the most optimal techniques for monitoring clonal evolution in the course of CLL.

The combination of complex karyotype subtypes and IGHV mutational status identifies new prognostic and predictive groups in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia

BACKGROUND

Complex karyotype (CK) is a heterogeneous category with a negative impact in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL). Our group has recently reported that CK patients with major structural abnormalities (i.e. CK2) are characterised by a worse prognosis, as compared to other lesions within CK(CK1).

METHODS

We performed a multicentre retrospective study to test whether the combination of CK subtypes with IGHV status could be a relevant prognostic and predictive tool.

RESULTS

Among 522 patients 13% harboured CK2, 41% CK1 and/or U-IGHV (U-CK1) and 46% M-IGHV without any CK subtypes (M-noCK). After a median follow-up of 5.8 years, CK2 patients had the shortest TTFT (5-year TTFT 31%, 39 and 81%, p < 0.0001) and OS (5-year OS 67%, 85 and 93%, p < 0.0001) as compared to U-CK1 or M-noCK cases, regardless of TP53 abnormalities. CK2 patients also had the worst outcome after chemoimmunotherapy. In fact, the median TTNT after FCR or BR was 1.86 and 4.79 years for CK2 and U-CK1, but not reached for M-noCK patients (p < 0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

We herein suggest that the combined assessment of the IGHV mutational status and CK subtypes refines the prognostication of CLL, allowing to identify M-IGHV patients without any CK subtypes who are characterised by an indolent disease and excellent outcome after chemoimmunotherapy.