One for all and all for one: Linear regression from the mass of individual bones to assess human skeletal mass completeness

New data about the 21st Century Identified Skeletal Collection (University of Coimbra, Portugal)

After the publication of the first article in 2014, 21st Century Identified Skeletal Collection, housed in the Laboratory of Forensic Anthropology, Department of Life Sciences at the University of Coimbra, Portugal, has been growing. Currently, the collection is composed of 302 complete adult skeletons of both sexes, which means that in 5 years it has doubled. The collection consists mostly of elderly individuals, with only 12.25% of the individuals aged less than 61 years old. All individuals are Portuguese nationals who died between 1982 and 2012. Ninety individuals exhibit prostheses, other medical devices and signs of surgical procedures. Moreover, a sub-collection of experimentally burned skeletons is under development, and currently includes 56 individuals (18.54% of the collection). The 21st Century Identified Skeletal Collection constitutes a fundamental tool for forensic anthropology research, including the development and validation studies of methods that focus on elderly individuals, as can be ascertained by the numerous scientific publications and academic scholarship that have been produced in previous years.

CADOES: An interactive machine-learning approach for sex estimation with the pelvis

The pelvis is consistently regarded as the most sexually dimorphic region of the human skeleton, and methods for sex estimation with the pelvic bones are usually very accurate. In this investigation, population-specific osteometric models for the assessment of sex with the pelvis were designed using a dataset provided by J.A. Serra (1938) that included 256 individuals (131 females and 125 males) from the Coimbra Identified Skeletal Collection and 38 metric variables. The models for sex estimation were operationalized through an online application and decision support system, CADOES. Different classification algorithms generated high accuracy models, ranging from 85% to 92%, with only three variables; and from 85.33% to 97.33%, with all 38 variables. CADOES conveys a probabilistic prediction of skeletal sex, as well as a suite of attributes with educational applicability in the fields of human skeletal anatomy and statistics. This study upholds the value of the pelvis for the estimation of skeletal sex and provides models for that can be applied with high accuracy and low bias.

Outline Shape Analysis on the Trochlear Constriction and Olecranon Fossa of the Humerus: Insights for Sex Estimation and a New Computational Tool

Sex estimation through visual analysis of the distal humerus can contribute to establishing the biological profile of an unidentified skeletal individual. Using statistical shape modeling, the trochlear constriction open curves and olecranon fossa closed outlines of 151 humeri were digitized and analyzed. The shape configurations exhibited strikingly different degrees of sexual dimorphism when evaluated using linear discriminant analysis with leave-one-out cross-validation. The trochlear constriction performed poorly, correctly classifying 63.6% of the individuals. However, the olecranon fossa showed high sexual dimorphism, presenting a 94.0% accuracy. A simpler model using only two principal components was also generated. While the accuracy is slightly inferior (88.1%), it has the advantage of being constrained to bidimensional components that were translated into morphoscopic variables within a simulator interface. This allowed us to implement the method through a web application that does not require users to be trained in landmark digitization or have knowledge of geometric morphometrics.

Preliminary results of an investigation on postmortem variations in human skeletal mass of buried bones

Extreme fragmentation can complicate the inventory of human skeletal remains. In such cases, skeletal mass can provide information regarding skeleton completeness and the minimum number of individuals. For that purpose, several references for skeletal mass can be used to establish comparisons and draw inferences regarding those parameters. However, little is known about the feasibility of establishing comparisons between inherently different materials, as is the case of curated reference skeletal collections and human remains recovered from forensic and archaeological settings. The objective of this paper was to investigate the effect of inhumation, weather and heat exposure on the skeletal mass of two different bone types. This was investigated on a sample of 30 human bone fragments (14 trabecular bones and 16 compact bones) that was experimentally buried for two years after being submitted to one of four different heat treatments (left unburned; 500 °C; 900 °C; 1000 °C). Bones were exhumed periodically to assess time-related mass variation. Skeletal mass varied substantially, decreasing and increasing in accordance to the interchanging dry and wet seasons. However, trends were not the same for the two bone types and the four temperature thresholds. The reason for this appears to be related to water absorption and to the differential heat-induced changes in bone microporosity, volume, and composition. Our results suggest that mass comparisons against published references should be performed only after the skeletal remains have been preemptively dried from exogenous water.

DXAGE: A New Method for Age at Death Estimation Based on Femoral Bone Mineral Density and Artificial Neural Networks

Age at death estimation in adult skeletons is hampered, among others, by the unremarkable correlation of bone estimators with chronological age, implementation of inappropriate statistical techniques, observer error, and skeletal incompleteness or destruction. Therefore, it is beneficial to consider alternative methods to assess age at death in adult skeletons. The decrease in bone mineral density with age was explored to generate a method to assess age at death in human remains. A connectionist computational approach, artificial neural networks, was employed to model femur densitometry data gathered in 100 female individuals from the Coimbra Identified Skeletal Collection. Bone mineral density declines consistently with age and the method performs appropriately, with mean absolute differences between known and predicted age ranging from 9.19 to 13.49 years. The proposed method-DXAGE-was implemented online to streamline age estimation. This preliminary study highlights the value of densitometry to assess age at death in human remains.

Dead weight: Validation of mass regression equations on experimentally burned skeletal remains to assess skeleton completeness

In very fragmentary remains, the thorough inventory of skeletal elements is often impossible to accomplish. Mass has been used instead to assess the completeness of the skeleton. Two different mass-based methods of assessing skeleton completeness were tested on a sample of experimentally burned skeletons with the objective of determining which of them is more reliable. The first method was based on a simple comparison of the mass of each individual skeleton with previously published mass references. The second method was based on mass linear regressions from individual bones to estimate complete skeleton mass. The clavicle, humerus, femur, patella, metacarpal, metatarsal and tarsal bones were used. The sample was composed of 20 experimentally burned skeletons from 10 males and 10 females with ages-at-death between 68 and 90years old. Results demonstrated that the regression approach is more objective and more reliable than the reference comparison approach even though not all bones provided satisfactory estimations of the complete skeleton mass. The femur, humerus and patella provided the best performances among the individual bones. The estimations based on the latter had root mean squared errors (RMSE) smaller than 300g. Results demonstrated that the regression approach is quite promising although the patella was the only reasonable predictor expected to survive sufficiently intact to a burning event at high temperatures. The mass comparison approach has the advantage of not depending on the preservation of individual bones. Whenever bones are intact though, the application of mass regressions should be preferentially used because it is less subjective.