'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task

Within-session chasing of losses and wins in an online eCasino

Chasing refers to the escalation of betting behaviour. It is conventionally seen when losing but can also be seen after wins. Diagnostic and screening items for gambling problems describe chasing as returning 'another day' to gamble. However, gamblers may also chase within sessions, and this is particularly relevant in online gambling. This study focused on two expressions of within-session chasing: (1) increasing the bet amount, or (2) a reduced probability of quitting the session, as a function of prior losses or wins. These expressions were examined across five online gambling products: slot machines, probability games, blackjack, video poker, and roulette. Our results showed that gamblers bet more and played longer sessions after immediate losses, but they bet less and played shorter sessions when losing cumulatively. The reversed pattern in the cumulative model may be due to financial constraints. For wins, gamblers bet more after both immediate and cumulative wins, but they also played shorter sessions. Chasing patterns were qualitatively similar by game type-with limited evidence for our hypothesis that chasing would be greatest for slot machines as an established high-risk category. Overall, chasing is multi-faceted, varying across the behavioural expressions, by the immediate or cumulative timeframe of prior outcomes, and by game type.

Behavioural expressions of loss-chasing in gambling: A systematic scoping review

BANERJEE Nilosmita., CHEN Zhang., CLARK Luke., NOËL Xavier. Behavioural expressions of loss-chasing in gambling: A systematic scoping review NEUROSCI BIOBEHAV REV 152(1) XXX-XXX, 2023. - Loss-chasing, the tendency to continue and/or intensify gambling following losses, is a key clinical symptom in gambling disorder and a central feature endorsed by at-risk problem gamblers. Despite its centrality, loss-chasing has been often operationalised across distinct behavioural expressions. The current systematic scoping review aimed to map the heterogeneous operationalisations of loss-chasing in the literature. The reviewed studies defined loss-chasing either between-sessions (n = 39) or within-sessions (n = 38), as a long-recognised distinction. For both categories, further behavioural expressions could be distinguished. Between-session loss-chasing was captured by endorsing an item 'returning another day/time to recoup losses', or behaviourally as the interval between successive sessions, or as increasing stakes in the next session. Within-session loss-chasing was defined as continuing and/or intensifying gambling either by increased risk-taking, stake size, or speed of play. Additionally, much heterogeneity was observed in the gambling contexts examined, the exact definition of loss, and the potential delineation of win-chasing. Open questions and future directions are discussed. Overall, this paper serves as a first step towards more conceptual clarity of loss-chasing.

Predicting Outcomes in a Sequence of Binary Events: Belief Updating and Gambler's Fallacy Reasoning

Beliefs like the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand have interested cognitive scientists, economists, and philosophers for centuries. We propose that these judgment patterns arise from the observer's mental models of the sequence-generating mechanism, moderated by the strength of belief in an a priori base rate. In six behavioral experiments, participants observed one of three mechanisms generating sequences of eight binary events: a random mechanical device, an intentional goal-directed actor, and a financial market. We systematically manipulated participants' beliefs about the base rate probabilities at which different outcomes were generated by each mechanism. Participants judged 18 sequences of outcomes produced by a mechanism with either an unknown base rate, a specified distribution of three equiprobable base rates, or a precise, fixed base rate. Six target sequences ended in streaks of between two and seven identical outcomes. The most common predictions for subsequent events were best described as pragmatic belief updating, expressed as an increasingly strong expectation that a streak of identical signals would repeat as the length of that streak increased. The exception to this pattern was for sequences generated by a random mechanical device with a fixed base rate of .50. Under this specific condition, participants exhibited a bias toward reversal of streaks, and this bias was larger when participants were asked to make a dichotomous choice versus a numerical probability rating. We review alternate accounts for the anomalous judgments of sequences and conclude with our favored interpretation that is based on Rabin's version of Tversky & Kahneman's Law of Small Numbers.

Winning and losing in online gambling: Effects on within-session chasing

The tendency to continue or intensify gambling after losing (loss-chasing) is widely regarded as a defining feature of gambling disorder. However, loss-chasing in real gambling contexts is multifaceted, and some aspects are better understood than others. Gamblers may chase losses between multiple sessions or within a single session. Furthermore, within a session, loss-chasing can be expressed in the decision of (1) when to stop, (2) how much stake to bet, and (3) the speed of play after winning and losing. Using a large player-tracking data set (>2500 players, >10 million rounds) collected from the online commercial game Mystery Arena, we examined these three behavioral expressions of within-session loss-chasing. While the first two aspects (when to stop and how much stake to bet) have been examined previously, the current research is the first large-scale study to examine the effects of wins and losses on the speed of play in real gambling. The players were additionally assigned different involvement levels by the operator based on their gambling behavior on the operator’s own platform, which further allowed us to examine group differences in loss-chasing. We found that after winning, both the high- and low-involvement groups were less likely to stop, and increased the stake amount, thus showing win-chasing instead of loss-chasing in these two facets. After losing, both groups played more quickly though, which may reflect an urge to continue gambling (as an expression of loss-chasing). Wins and losses had a smaller influence on the speed of play for the high-involvement players, suggesting that they might have reduced sensitivity to wins and/or losses. Future work can further examine chasing in different gambling products and in people with gambling problems to assess the generalizability of these findings.

Not giving up: Testosterone promotes persistence against a stronger opponent

Recent research suggests that when we lack a sense of control, we are prone to motivational failures and early quitting in competitions. Testosterone, on the other hand, is thought to boost competitiveness. Here we investigate the interaction between these factors, testing the testosterone's potential to enhance persistence in a competition against a stronger opponent, depending on experimentally manipulated perceived control. Healthy participants were administered a single dose of testosterone or placebo. They first underwent a task designed to either induce low or high perceived control and then entered a costly competition against a progressively stronger opponent that they could quit at any time. In the placebo group, men with low perceived control quitted twice as early as those with high perceived control. Testosterone countered this effect, making individuals with low control persist in the competition for as long as those with high perceived control, and did so also despite raising participants' explicit awareness of the opponents' advantage. This psychoendocrinological effect was not modulated by basal cortisol levels, CAG repeat polymorphism of the androgen receptor gene, or trait dominance. Our results provide the first causal evidence that testosterone promotes competitive persistence in humans and demonstrate that this effect depends on the psychological state elicited prior to the competition, broadening our understanding of the complex relationships between testosterone and social behaviors.

Gamble with Your Head and Not Your Heart: A Conceptual Model for How Thinking-Style Promotes Irrational Gambling Beliefs

Dual process theory suggests that people use two processing systems to filter information and form judgments that direct a course of action: an intuitive and an analytic system. While the intuitive system is necessary for efficient and effective daily functioning, reliance on fast, intuitive thinking when gambling is likely to result in biased or flawed decision-making. Those who gamble tend to endorse an array of fallacious or irrational beliefs that contribute to risky decision-making and excessive gambling. This paper argues that gambling beliefs may be developed and reinforced through underlying cognitive mechanisms described by dual process theory. More specifically, gamblers tend to apply assumptions and theories developed based on their understanding of the natural world to artificial gambling contexts where such rules do not apply. As a result, gamblers develop biased interpretations and understandings for how gambling works, which tend to align with personal schemas, experiences and gambling motivations. These beliefs are used in future gambling contexts to inform decision-making. Gamblers are often unlikely or unwilling to reflect on the veracity of beliefs as they are often used to justify gambling behaviours. Educating gamblers on how they make decisions and encouraging them to think more analytically may help to reduce the strength with which erroneous beliefs about gambling are endorsed, resulting in safer gambling decisions.

Inducing illusory control ensures persistence when rewards fade and when others outperform us

Persisting even when the rewards of continued effort are fading is essential for achieving long-term goals, skills, and good health, alike. Yet, we often quit when things get hard. Here, we tested whether augmenting the feeling of control through external measures increases persistence under such discouraging circumstances. In two laboratory experiments, we first induced illusory control by manipulating the base-rate of positive outcomes and then tested the effect of this elevation of participants' perceived control upon their persistence under diminishing returns and in a competition against a stronger opponent. Induced illusory control significantly enhanced people's persistence in both of these motivationally challenging situations. Our findings demonstrate that motivation is dependent upon perceived, rather than objective, control, and reveal that this can be leveraged to counteract quitting behavior when things get hard, for instance in rehabilitation, physical activity interventions, or other training settings.

The effects of alcohol on sequential decision-making biases during gambling

RATIONALE

Gambling and alcohol use are recreational behaviours that share substantial commonalities at a phenomenological, clinical and neurobiological level. Past studies have shown that alcohol can have a disinhibiting effect on gambling behaviour, in terms of bet size and persistence.

OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted in order to characterise how alcohol affects biases in judgment and decision-making that occur during gambling, with a focus on sequential decision-making including the gambler's fallacy.

METHODS

Sequential biases were elicited via a roulette-based gambling task. Using a standard between-groups alcohol challenge procedure, male participants played the roulette task 20 min after receiving an alcoholic (0.8 g/kg; n = 22) or placebo (n = 16) beverage. The task measured colour choice decisions (red/black) and bet size, in response to varying lengths of colour runs and winning/losing feedback streaks.

RESULTS

Across both groups, a number of established sequential biases were observed. On colour choice, there was an effect of run length in line with the gambler's fallacy, which further varied by previous feedback (wins vs losses). Bet size increased with feedback streaks, especially for losing streaks. Compared to placebo, the alcohol group placed higher bets following losses compared to wins.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased bet size after losses following alcohol consumption may reflect increased loss chasing that may amplify gambling harms. Our results do not fit a simple pattern of enhanced gambling distortions or reward sensitivity, but help contextualise the effects of alcohol on gambling to research on decision-making biases.

Studying Gambling Behaviors and Responsible Gambling Tools in a Simulated Online Casino Integrated With Amazon Mechanical Turk: Development and Initial Validation of Survey Data and Platform Mechanics of the Frescati Online Research Casino

Introduction: Online gambling, popular among both problem and recreational gamblers, simultaneously entails both heightened addiction risks as well as unique opportunities for prevention and intervention. There is a need to bridge the growing literature on learning and extinction mechanisms of gambling behavior, with account tracking studies using real-life gambling data. In this study, we describe the development and validation of the Frescati Online Research Casino (FORC): a simulated online casino where games, visual themes, outcome sizes, probabilities, and other variables of interest can be experimentally manipulated to conduct behavioral analytic studies and evaluate the efficacy of responsible gambling tools. Methods: FORC features an initial survey for self-reporting of gambling and gambling problems, along with several games resembling regular real-life casino games, designed to allow Pavlovian and instrumental learning. FORC was developed with maximum flexibility in mind, allowing detailed experiment specification by setting parameters using an online interface, including the display of messages. To allow convenient and rapid data collection from diverse samples, FORC is independently hosted yet integrated with the popular crowdsourcing platform Amazon Mechanical Turk through a reimbursement key mechanism. To validate the survey data quality and game mechanics of FORC, n = 101 participants were recruited, who answered an questionnaire on gambling habits and problems, then played both slot machine and card-draw type games. Questionnaire and trial-by-trial behavioral data were analyzed using standard psychometric tests, and outcome distribution modeling. Results: The expected associations among variables in the introductory questionnaire were found along with good psychometric properties, suggestive of good quality data. Only 6% of participants provided seemingly poor behavioral data. Game mechanics worked as intended: gambling outcomes showed the expected pattern of random sampling with replacement and were normally distributed around the set percentages, while balances developed according to the set return to player rate. Conclusions: FORC appears to be a valid paradigm for simulating online gambling and for collecting survey and behavioral data, offering a valuable compromise between stringent experimental paradigms with lower external validity, and real-world gambling account tracking data with lower internal validity.

The gambler's fallacy in problem and non-problem gamblers

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Although numerous correlational studies have shown an association between cognitive distortions and problem gambling, only a few behavioral studies have investigated this topic by comparing problem (PGs) and non-problem gamblers (N-PGs). This quasi-experiment investigated the occurrence in both groups of a widespread cognitive distortion, the gambler's fallacy (GF), using a fictitious roulette game. Moreover, it investigated whether the GF increased the bet amount and whether impulsivity and sensation seeking were associated with the GF.

METHODS

Two indices of the GF were used: a cognitive index, the probability estimate of each outcome (black/red) after manipulating the final run length (the same outcome occurring four times/once), and a behavioral index, the choice of the outcome on which to bet. A total of 320 (160 PGs and 160 N-PGs) unpaid male volunteers, aged between 18 and 68, participated in this study.

HYPOTHESES

Erroneous probability estimates should mediate the effect of longer runs on the alternation choice (i.e., the choice of an outcome different from the previous one) to support the occurrence of GF. The GF should increase betting. PGs should be more prone than N-PGs to GF.

RESULTS

The choice of the outcome depended on both cognitive (erroneous probability estimates) and affective (preference for red) factors. PGs bet more than N-PGs but they were not more prone than N-PGs to incurring GF. Although impulsivity and sensation seeking were more intense in PGs than in N-PGs, they scarcely affected GF.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our results corroborate the tested model of the GF that links mistaken probability estimates, choice of the outcome on which to bet, and bet amount. However, they are similar to PGs and N-PGs and fail to corroborate the hypothesis that the GF is more evident in PGs.

Impulsivity influences betting under stress in laboratory gambling

Although recent research suggests that acute stress influences subsequent decision-making under ambiguity, less is known about the role of personality variables in this relationship. This study tested whether impulsivity traits and acute stress differentially influence the way in which a prior feedback is incorporated into further decisions involving ambiguity. Sixty college students (50% male; aged 18-25 years) were randomly assigned to a stress versus a non-stress condition before completing a laboratory gambling task. The results revealed that independently of the stress condition, subjects behaved as if the odds of winning increase after a single loss. Additionally, stress effects varied as a function of impulsivity traits. Individuals who lacked perseverance (i.e., had difficulty focusing on a difficult or boring task) gambled more after experiencing a loss in the stress condition than did those in the control condition. The present study supports that impulsivity traits can explain the differential effect of stress on the relationship between prior feedback and choices made under ambiguity.

Gambling goals predict chasing behavior during slot machine play

AIMS

The purpose of this study was to test the effect of gambling goals (i.e., gambling achievement-orientation) on chasing behavior (i.e., decision to chase, chasing spins) over and above known antecedents (e.g., problem gambling severity, winning money motivations, approach/avoidance motivation).

METHODS

Young adult gamblers (N=121) were provided $20 and invited to use those funds on a slot machine situated in an immersive virtual reality casino. Unbeknownst to participants, outcomes were manipulated such that a nominal amount of money was either won or lost (depending on experimental condition) after 30 spins. Before the 31st spin, participants were asked if they wished to continue play. If they agreed, all successive spin outcomes were a loss. This permitted an assessment of what factors influence a player's: (1) decision to chase and (2) the number of chasing spins played in the face of loss.

RESULTS

Almost all participants (n=95, 78.5%) screened positive for problem gambling symptoms. The majority of gamblers decided to chase (n=67, 55.4%). In bivariate analyses, higher gambling goal and problem gambling severity scores (but not approach/avoidance nor 'loss/win' condition) were positively related to both forms of chasing. Gamblers 'motivated to win money' were more likely to decide to chase. In multivariate analyses, higher gambling goals best accounted for both forms of chasing independent of known antecedents.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides the first evidence that gambling goals can influence chasing. Implications for shaping responsible gambling approaches to be more consistent with motivations for play are discussed.

Single dose testosterone administration reduces loss chasing in healthy females

Testosterone has been linked to modulation of impulsivity and risky choice, potentially mediated by changes in reward or punishment sensitivity. This study investigated the effect of testosterone on risk-taking and the adjustment of risk-taking on trials following a gain or a loss. Loss chasing is operationalized herein as the propensity to recover losses by increasing risky choice. Healthy female participants (n=26) received a single-dose of 0.5mg sublingual testosterone in a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover design. At 240min post-administration, participants performed a gambling task with a high and a low risk option. In the placebo condition, participants were more likely to choose the high risk option following losses compared to wins. This effect was abolished on the testosterone session. Ignoring prior outcomes, no overall changes in risk-taking were observed. Our data indicate that testosterone affects human decision-making via diminishing sensitivity to punishment.