Thinking without knowing: Psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence regarding blackjack strategy

In two studies, we explored potential psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence, including outcome expectations, anxiety, risk taking, and information search and consideration. Study 1 employed an individual-differences approach to examine how participants' confidence regarding their knowledge of blackjack strategy, controlling for their actual knowledge, correlated with these hypothesized psychological and behavioral variables. Study 2 manipulated participants' confidence levels to examine these effects. Across the two studies, greater unjustified confidence led to larger bets (a measure of risk taking) and reduced use of hints designed to improve play (information search and consideration). Unjustified confidence also increased participants' outcome expectations and lowered anxiety levels. Implications of these findings, such as for educational interventions, are discussed.

Dimensions, Measures, and Contexts in Psychological Investigations of Curiosity: A Scoping Review

The study of curiosity as a construct has led to many conceptualisations, comprising of different dimensions. Due to this, various scales of curiosity have also been developed. Moreover, some researchers have conceived of curiosity as a general trait-like, while others have included contexts, such as the workplace, or education when investigating curiosity. This scoping review aims to scope the extant psychological literature on curiosity in order to better understand how it has been studied, specifically with regard to its dimensions, measures, and contexts. A total of 1194 records were identified, with 245 articles meeting the inclusion criteria. Results suggest that the majority of curiosity research examined curiosity as having multiple dimensions and analysed the dimensions individually, with a deprivation-type curiosity playing the biggest role. The measure most commonly used was the Epistemic Curiosity Scale, which also consisted of a deprivation-type curiosity as one of the dimensions. Findings also implied that curiosity was most studied in the context of the workplace. Supplementary findings included a lack of representation of non-Western countries, as well as needing to cross-validate a recently developed curiosity scale. This scoping review represents a consolidation of the curiosity literature and how it can further prosper.

Understanding Combined Health and Business Risk Behaviour: Small Tourism Firm Owners Reopening Amid COVID-19 in Pingyao, China

This study explores the psychological factors affecting small tourism firm (STF) owners’ decision making about reopening businesses in the midst of COVID-19 based on protection motivation theory and the theory of planned behaviour. The data were collected from a sample of 300 STFs in the Ancient City of Pingyao when the lockdown policy was lifted in China. A symmetric approach, i.e., partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS–SEM), and an asymmetric model, i.e., a fuzzy set/qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), were used to analyse the net effect of the psychological determinants and correlations between the variables leading to high and low behavioural intentions to reopen businesses. The results indicate that social norms and perceived business uncertainty were the critical factors influencing the intention to reopen. The pathway (low perceived risk of infection, low perceived business uncertainty, high reward, high response efficacy, high self-efficacy, high attitude, and high subjective norm) was only one configuration for a high intention to reopen. The study results are discussed based on dual-process theory, and practical implications are offered to guide STF recovery amid COVID-19.

Immediate emotions and subjective stakes in risky decision-making under uncertainty

BACKGROUND

Previous research has shown that immediate emotions and cognitive processing of the stakes of outcomes influence decision-making under uncertainty. The effect of perceived beneficial stakes and different types of immediate emotions on decision-making is an important topic that has received little attention in the literature. This study investigated the effects of trait anxiety and anticipatory emotions (fear, sadness, excitement and comfortability) on the perception of thee stakes of outcomes and behavioral intentions.

METHOD

Participants from the community completed a task measuring anticipatory emotions and their perceived stakes of risky and beneficial outcomes in a range of uncertain situations. Trait anxiety was also measured.

RESULTS

Results revealed that anticipatory emotions (except for sadness), trait anxiety and subjective stakes all demonstrated significant associations with risky behavioral intention in uncertain situations. Anticipatory emotions, but not trait anxiety, had stable effects on stake perceptions. However, trait anxiety moderated the effect of excitement on risky behavioral intention. In addition, positive emotions (comfortability and excitement) and beneficial stakes demonstrated consistent effects in the decision-making process.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study sheds light on future immediate-emotion-based interventions for deficits in uncertain decision-making.

Measuring Risk Tolerance across Domains: Scale Development and Validation

Risk attitudes are of interest to researchers in many fields as they play a crucial role in our day-to-day decision-making. In this paper we develop a measure of risk attitudes-the Multi-Domain Risk Tolerance (MDRT) scale-that addresses some key shortcomings of popular self-report scales, such as the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale. We do this by clearly aligning the risk in the items with the particular domain of risk, reducing item ambiguity, and reducing the impact of prior knowledge. We developed the MDRT using an Exploratory Graph Analysis (EGA) and Item Response Theory (IRT) approach with a community sample (N = 921). We examined its construct and convergent validity (N = 493) and construct generalizability (N = 487). We found that the MDRT had excellent internal consistency, dimensionality and latent factor structure. The MDRT also demonstrated significant convergent validity with related scales used in the literature. The MDRT is shown to be a promising alternative measure of risk attitudes.

Flexibility and Resilience in Corporate Decision Making: A New Sustainability-Based Risk Management System in Uncertain Times

Risk management plays a key role in uncertain times, preventing corporations from acting rashly and incorrectly, allowing them to become flexible and resilient. A global turbulence such as the COVID-19 pandemic has had a strong impact on individual companies and entire economic sectors, raising the question of whether a paradigm shift is necessary, in order to enable a new cycle of development that is much environmentally, socially and economically sustainable. This environmental and socio-economic context of profound uncertainty forces organizations to consider more carefully the risk factors affecting their business continuity, as well as how these factors relate to sustainability issues. However, there is a gap in knowledge about how risk management systems relate to sustainability management systems, and how both of them exert influence on business performance, especially from a theoretical point of view. The aim of this study is to address this gap, by developing a new interpretative framework for the analysis of risk management strategies in organizations. This approach has been identified in economic hermeneutics as an innovative methodological tool to improve the knowledge of risk and design the most appropriate management strategies. The paper provides two main results: the first one is the construction of a theoretical model that relates risk management to sustainability management; the second one is an operational framework of multidimensional risk assessment useful for analysis at different levels (business, competitive scenario and system). Finally, the model also makes it possible to carry out a sustainability assessment through risk evaluation in the perspective of the sustainable development goals.

The Moderating Roles of Sensation Seeking and Worry among Nature-Based Adventure Tourists

The adventure tourism subsector continues to be popular today. Both industry and academia define adventure tourism's scope from either the physical (e.g., outdoor activity and physical activity) or psychological aspects (e.g., thrill seeking and challenges). Recent studies have pointed out that adventure tourism can be interpreted differently across cultures and markets. Still, risk has always been universally accepted as an essential characteristic of adventure tourism. Thus, most empirical research has studied the role of risk as one of the motivations. However, attempts to investigate related elements that are either a response to or a coping mechanism for the presence of risk are scarce. This present study adopted one of the most prominent frameworks in explaining behavioral intentions, the theory of planned behavior, and included involvement and knowledge variables to extend it. Furthermore, the sensation-seeking and worry constructs were tested for their moderating impact on intentions to participate in adventure tours. The results of structural equation modeling and multigroup invariance tests revealed that subjective norms were not a significant predictor of intentions, while both sensation seeking and worry significantly moderated the relationships between the study variables.