Prediction of outcome following acute variceal haemorrhage

Management of portal hypertensive gastropathy and other bleeding

A major cause of cirrhosis related morbidity and mortality is the development of variceal bleeding, a direct consequence of portal hypertension. Less common causes of gastrointestinal bleeding are peptic ulcers, malignancy, angiodysplasia, etc. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding has been classified according to the presence of a variceal or non-variceal bleeding. Although non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding is not common in cirrhotic patients, gastroduodenal ulcers may develop as often as non-cirrhotic patients. Ulcers in cirrhotic patients may be more severe and less frequently associated with chronic intake of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and may require more frequently endoscopic treatment. Portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG) refers to changes in the mucosa of the stomach in patients with portal hypertension. Patients with portal hypertension may experience bleeding from the stomach, and pharmacologic or radiologic interventional procedure may be useful in preventing re-bleeding from PHG. Gastric antral vascular ectasia (GAVE) seems to be different disease entity from PHG, and endoscopic ablation can be the first-line treatment.

Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Cirrhotic Patients with Portal Hypertension

Gastrointestinal bleeding related to portal hypertension is a serious complication in patients with liver cirrhosis. Most patients bleed from esophageal or gastric varices, but bleeding from ectopic varices or portal hypertensive gastropathy is also possible. The management of acute bleeding has changed over the last years. Patients are managed with a combination of endoscopic and pharmacologic treatment. The endoscopic treatment of choice for esophageal variceal bleeding is variceal band ligation. Bleeding from gastric varices is treated by injection with cyanoacrylate. Treatment with vasoactive drugs as well as antibiotic treatment is started before or at the time point of endoscopy. The first-line treatment for primary prophylaxis of esophageal variceal bleeding is nonselective beta blockers. Pharmacologic therapy is recommended for most patients; band ligation is an alternative in patients with contraindications for or intolerability of beta blockers. Treatment options for secondary prophylaxis include variceal band ligation, beta blockers, a combination of nitrates and beta blockers, and combination of band ligation and pharmacologic treatment. A clear superiority of one treatment over the other has not been shown. Bleeding from portal hypertensive gastropathy or ectopic varices is less common. Treatment options include beta blocker therapy, injection therapy, and interventional radiology.

Non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis: a review

BACKGROUND

Non-variceal gastrointestinal (NVGI) bleeding in cirrhosis may be associated with life-threatening complications similar to variceal bleeding.

AIM

To review NVGI bleeding in cirrhosis.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Scopus, and ISI Web of Knowledge were searched, using the textwords "portal hypertensive gastropathy," "gastric vascular ectasia," "peptic ulcer," "Dieulafoy's," "Mallory-Weiss syndrome," "portal hypertensive enteropathy," "portal hypertensive colopathy," "hemorrhoids," and "cirrhosis."

RESULTS

Portal hypertensive gastropathy (PHG) and gastric vascular ectasia (GVE) are gastric lesions that most commonly present as chronic anemia; acute upper GI (UGI) bleeding is a rare manifestation. Management of PHG-related bleeding is mainly pharmacological, whereas endoscopic intervention is favored in GVE-related bleeding. Shunt therapies or more invasive techniques are restricted in refractory cases. Despite its high incidence in cirrhotic patients, peptic ulcer accounts for a relatively small proportion of UGI bleeding in this patient population. However, in contrary to general population, the pathogenetic role of Helicobacter pylori infection remains questionable. Finally, other causes of UGI bleeding include Dieulafoy's lesion, Mallory-Weiss syndrome, and portal hypertensive enteropathy. The most common non-variceal endoscopic findings reported in patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding are portal hypertensive colopathy and hemorrhoids. However, the vast majority of studies are case reports and, therefore, the incidence, diagnosis, and risk of bleeding remain undefined. Endoscopic interventions, shunting procedures, and surgical techniques have been described in this setting.

CONCLUSIONS

The data on NVGI bleeding in liver cirrhosis are surprisingly scanty. Large, multicenter epidemiological studies are needed to better assess prevalence and incidence and, most importantly, randomized studies should be performed to evaluate the success rates of therapeutic algorithms.

Overnight glucose infusion suppresses renal ammoniagenesis and reduces hyperammonaemia induced by a simulated bleed in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

A simulated upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleed in cirrhotic patients has been shown to induce hyperammonaemia. The kidney was the site of this exaggerated ammoniagenesis with alanine as substrate. Administration of alanine to decompensated cirrhotic patients did not change hepatic gluconeogenesis, but resulted in increased ammoniagenesis. We hypothesise that reduced hepatic glycogen stores result in hyperglucagonaemia which may drive increased renal gluconeogenesis and therefore alanine uptake and renal ammoniagenesis.

AIM

To determine whether an overnight glucose infusion lowers renal ammoniagenesis by reducing hyperglucagonaemia and renal ammoniagenesis.

METHODS

Patients with decompensated cirrhosis were studied in a cross-over design. An UGI bleed was simulated via intragastric administration of an amino acids mixture mimicking the haemoglobin molecule after a 12-h overnight fast (F-group) or after a 12-h treatment with 20% glucose solution (G-group).

RESULTS

Before the simulated bleed the glucagon levels were 21 (15-31) pmol/L in the F-group and 15 (9-21) pmol/L in the G-group (P < 0.01). After the simulated bleed, arterial ammonia levels increased in both groups [F-group: 73-118 μmol/L (P = 0.01); G-group 64-87 μmol/L (P = 0.01)]. The enhancement of hyperammonaemia was significantly higher in the F-group (45 [19-71] μmol/L) compared with the G-group (23 [13-39] μmol/L) (P = 0.01). The difference in renal ammoniagenesis during the simulated bleed in the F-group was 399 (260-655) nmol/kg/bwt/min and was significantly higher than in the G-group 313 (1-498) nmol/kg/bwt/min (P = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Overnight glucose infusion results in reduced renal ammoniagenesis and attenuates ammonia levels. These observations have implications for the development of nutritional strategies in hyperammonaemic patients.

Improved survival with the patients with variceal bleed

Variceal hemorrhage is a major cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Over the past two decades new treatment modalities have been introduced in the management of acute variceal bleeding (AVB) and several recent studies have suggested that the outcome of patients with cirrhosis and AVB has improved. Improved supportive measures, combination therapy which include early use of portal pressure reducing drugs with low rates of adverse effects (somatostatin, octerotide or terlipressin) and endoscopic variceal ligation has become the first line treatment in the management of AVB. Short-term antibiotic prophylaxis, early use of lactulose for prevention of hepatic encephalopathy, application of early transjugular intrahepatic portasystemic shunts (TIPS), fully covered self-expandable metallic stent in patients for AVB may be useful in those cases where balloon tamponade is considered. Early and wide availability of liver transplantation has changed the armamentarium of the clinician for patients with AVB. High hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) >20 mmHg in AVB has become a useful predictor of outcomes and more aggressive therapies with early TIPS based on HVPG measurement may be the treatment of choice to reduce mortality further.

Antibiotic prophylaxis in variceal hemorrhage: Timing, effectiveness and Clostridium difficile rates

AIM: To investigate if antibiotics administered within 8 h of endoscopy reduce mortality or increase the incidence of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI).

METHODS: A 2-year retrospective analysis of all patients who presented with first variceal hemorrhage was undertaken. The primary outcome measure was 28-d mortality. Secondary outcome measures were 28-d rebleeding rates and 28-d incidence of CDI. All patients were admitted to a tertiary liver unit with a consultant-led, 24-h endoscopy service. Patients received standard care including terlipressin therapy. Data collection included: primary and secondary outcome measures, timing of first administration of intravenous antibiotics, etiology of liver disease, demographics, endoscopy details and complications. A prospective study was undertaken to determine the incidence of CDI in the study population and general medical inpatients admitted for antibiotic therapy of at least 5 d duration. Statistical analysis was undertaken using univariate, non-parametric tests and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS: There were 70 first presentations of variceal hemorrhage during the study period. Seventy percent of cases were male and 65.7% were due to chronic alcoholic liver disease. In total, 64/70 (91.4%) patients received antibiotics as prophylaxis during their admission. Specifically, 53/70 (75.7%) received antibiotics either before endoscopy or within 8 h of endoscopy [peri-endoscopy (8 h) group], whereas 17/70 (24.3%) received antibiotics at > 8 h after endoscopy or not at all (non peri-endoscopy group). Overall mortality and rebleeding rates were 13/70 (18.6%) and 14/70 (20%), respectively. The peri-endoscopy (8 h) group was significantly less likely to die compared with the non peri-endoscopy group [13.2% vs 35.3%, P = 0.04, odds ratio (OR) = 0.28 (0.078-0.997)] and showed a trend towards reduced rebleeding [17.0% vs 29.4%, P = 0.27, OR = 0.49 (0.14-1.74)]. On univariate analysis, the non peri-endoscopy group [P = 0.02, OR = 3.58 (1.00-12.81)], higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P = 0.02), presence of hepatorenal syndrome [P < 0.01, OR = 11.25 (2.24-56.42)] and suffering a clinical episode of sepsis [P = 0.03, OR = 4.03 (1.11-14.58)] were significant predictors of death at 28 d. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, lower MELD score [P = 0.01, OR = 1.16 (1.04-1.28)] and peri-endoscopy (8 h) group [P = 0.01, OR = 0.15 (0.03-0.68)] were independent predictors of survival at 28 d. The CDI incidence (5.7%) was comparable to that in the general medical population (5%).

CONCLUSION: Antibiotics administered up to 8 h following endoscopy were associated with improved survival at 28 d. CDI incidence was comparable to that in other patient groups.

Predictive factors for rebleeding and death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding: a multivariate analysis

BACKGROUND

Bleeding from esophageal varices is a leading cause of death in alcoholic cirrhotic patients. The aim of the present single-center study was to identify risk factors predictive of variceal rebleeding and death within 6 weeks of initial treatment.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on 310 prospectively documented alcoholic cirrhotic patients with acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) who underwent 786 endoscopic variceal injection treatments between January 1984 and December 2006. All injections were administered during the first 6 weeks after the patients were treated for their first variceal bleed.

RESULTS

Seventy-five (24.2%) patients experienced a rebleed, 38 within 5 days of the initial treatment and 37 within 6 weeks of their initial treatment. Of the 15 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, a bilirubin level >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood during the initial hospital admission were predictors of variceal rebleeding within the first 6 weeks. Seventy-seven (24.8%) patients died, 29 (9.3%) within 5 days and 48 (15.4%) between 6 and 42 days after the initial treatment. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that six variables were predictors of death within the first 6 weeks: encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin level >51 mmol/l, international normalized ratio (INR) >2.3, albumin <25 g/l, and the need for balloon tube tamponade.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival was influenced by the severity of liver failure, with most deaths occurring in Child-Pugh grade C patients. Patients with AVH and encephalopathy, ascites, bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l, INR >2.3, albumin <25 g/l and who require balloon tube tamponade are at increased risk of dying within the first 6 weeks. Bilirubin levels >51 mmol/l and transfusion of >6 units of blood were predictors of variceal rebleeding.

Predicting poor outcome from acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage

In conclusion, numerous prediction models identified pre-endoscopic and endoscopic risk factors for adverse clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper GI hemorrhage. The risk factors for mortality are different from those of rebleeding. Predictors for rebleeding are usually related to the severity of the bleeding and characteristics of the ulcer, whereas advanced age, physical status of the patient, and comorbidities are important predictors for mortality in addition to those for rebleeding. Future studies should focus on validation of these predictors in a prospective cohort and application of these prediction models to guide clinical management in patients with acute upper GI hemorrhage.

Review article: hyperammonaemic and catabolic consequences of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding in patients with cirrhosis of the liver induces hyperammonaemia and leads to a catabolic cascade that precipitates life-threatening complications. The haemoglobin molecule is unique because it lacks the essential amino acid isoleucine and contains high amounts of leucine and valine. UGI bleed therefore presents the gut with protein of very low biologic value, which may be the stimulus to induce net catabolism.

AIM

To describe the hyperammonaemic and catabolic consequences of UGI bleeding in cirrhosis.

METHODS

A semi-structured literature search was performed using PubMed and article references.

RESULTS

It has recently been proven that ('simulation of ') a UGI bleed in patients with cirrhosis leads to impaired protein synthesis that can be restored by intravenous infusion of isoleucine. This may have therapeutic implications for the function of rapidly dividing cells and short half-life proteins such as clotting factors. Renal and small bowel ammoniagenesis were shown to be the most prominent causes for the hyperammonaemia that resulted from a UGI bleed. This provides an explanation for the therapeutic failure of the current clinical therapies that are aimed at large bowel-derived ammonia production. Isoleucine infusion did not diminish renal ammoniagenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

New pharmacological therapies to diminish postbleeding hyperammonaemia should target the altered inter-organ ammonia metabolism and promote ammonia excretion and/or increase the excretion of precursors of ammoniagenesis, e.g. l-ornithine-phenylacetate.

High-D-dimer plasma levels predict poor outcome in esophageal variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Variceal bleeding carries a high-mortality rate in patients with liver cirrhosis. Since coagulation and fibrinolysis are abnormal in these patients we evaluated whether or not abnormalities of these haemostasis systems were independently related to mortality.

METHODS

Global coagulation, coagulation activation and fibrinolysis measurements were performed in 43 cirrhotics bleeding from esophageal varices at baseline and during follow-up and in 43 non-bleeding cirrhotic patients at baseline only.

RESULTS

Baseline measurements of coagulation activation and fibrinolysis were more impaired in bleeders. In bleeders, prothrombin time, tissue type plasminogen activator antigen and D-dimer plasma levels were persistently more abnormal in patients who died. High-D-dimer, infection, Child-Pugh C class and MELD score >or=17 were the significant predictors of death at univariate analysis. Two different multivariate analyses to assess the independent prognostic value of these variables, one including the Child-Pugh class, the other including MELD, were performed. Independent predictors of death were high-D-dimer and infection, but not Child-Pugh class, in the former; MELD and infection, but not D-dimer, in the latter.

CONCLUSIONS

Beside infection, high-D-dimer is a stronger predictor of death as compared to Child-Pugh C class, but not to a MELD score >or=17.

Protein synthesis is severely diminished following a simulated upper GI bleed in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

An upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleed in cirrhotic patients has been hypothesised to induce catabolism due to the absence of the essential branched chain amino acid (BCAA) isoleucine and an abundance of the BCAA leucine in haemoglobin. We tested whether an upper GI bleed produces hypoisoleucinemia via BCAA antagonism and impairs protein synthesis.

METHODS

Isoleucine turnover and oxidation was studied in 5 metabolically stable patients with cirrhosis during a 4-h period of intragastric saline infusion followed by a 4-h period in which an upper GI bleed was simulated by an amino acid solution mimicking haemoglobin.

RESULTS

The simulated upper GI bleed induced hypoisoleucinemia (26% of initial values) and an increase in leucine (400%) and valine (350%) concentrations. Isoleucine flux and isoleucine oxidation decreased to a third of initial values following a simulated bleed, but the fraction of isoleucine flux used for oxidation did not change. Consequently, the non-oxidative portion of isoleucine flux, representing protein synthesis, decreased similarly.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study shows that a simulated upper GI bleed induces hypoisoleucinemia and decreases protein synthesis markedly. The fact that the percentage of isoleucine flux that was oxidized was not influenced by the hypoisoleucinemic state can only be explained by BCAA antagonism.

Quantification of cerebral edema on diffusion tensor imaging in acute-on-chronic liver failure

Cerebral edema is a major complication of acute liver failure but may also be seen in other forms of liver failure such as acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and chronic liver failure (CLF). ACLF develops in patients with previously well-compensated chronic liver disease following acute hepatitis A or E superimposed on underlying liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to detect the occurrence, and determine the nature, of cerebral edema in patients with the defined subset of ACLF using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) metrics. Twenty-three patients with ACLF were studied and compared with 15 healthy controls and 15 patients with CLF. DTI metrics including fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), linear anisotropy (CL), planar anisotropy (CP), and spherical isotropy (CS) were calculated by selecting regions of interest in the white matter and deep grey matter of the brain. Significantly decreased FA and increased CS were observed in the anterior limb (ALIC) and posterior limb (PLIC) of the internal capsule and frontal white matter (P<0.05) in patients with different grades (1-4) of ACLF when compared with healthy controls. No significant changes in MD and CP were seen in any brain region. However, significantly decreased CL was observed in the PLIC, caudate nuclei and putamen. In patients with CLF, significantly decreased FA with increased CS in the ALIC and PLIC along with significantly increased MD in the ALIC and caudate nuclei were observed. The presence of significantly decreased FA and CL and increased CS along with no significant change in MD and CP suggests the presence of both intracellular and extracellular components of cerebral edema in patients with ACLF.

Diagnosis and therapy of esophageal vascular disorders

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The most relevant studies concerning the diagnosis of esophageal varices, primary and secondary prophylaxis and treatment of variceal bleeding published in the last year are reported.

RECENT FINDINGS

The specific areas reviewed are those that refer to studies on the noninvasive or minimally invasive diagnosis of the presence of esophageal varices, the prevention of the formation and of the progression of varices from small to large, the prevention of the first variceal haemorrhage, the treatment of the acute bleeding episode, and the prevention of rebleeding.

SUMMARY

Relevant studies are reviewed regarding the validation of noninvasive indices for the presence of varices, the use of the esophageal videocapsule to diagnose varices, the comparison of methods to prevent the first variceal haemorrhage, the use of the hepatic vein pressure measurement to monitor the haemodynamic response to beta-blockers, the long-term protection from bleeding by beta-blockers, the use of a double dose of somatostatin to control bleeding, the evaluation of the best endoscopic method to treat variceal bleeding in addition to vasoactive drugs, and the identification of prognostic factors for early and late mortality after a variceal bleed.

Isoleucine infusion during "simulated" upper gastrointestinal bleeding improves liver and muscle protein synthesis in cirrhotic patients

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding in cirrhotic patients has a high incidence of mortality and morbidity. Postbleeding catabolism has been hypothesized to be partly due to the low biological value of hemoglobin, which lacks the essential amino acid isoleucine. The aims were to study the metabolic consequences of a "simulated" upper GI bleed in patients with cirrhosis of the liver and the effects of intravenous infusion of isoleucine. Portal drained viscera, liver, muscle, and kidney protein kinetics were quantified using a multicatheterization technique during routine portography. Sixteen overnight-fasted, metabolically stable patients who received an intragastric infusion of an amino acid solution mimicking hemoglobin every 4 hours were randomized to saline or isoleucine infusion and received a mixture of stable isotopes (L-[ring-2H5]phenylalanine, L-[ring-2H4]tyrosine, and L-[ring-2H2]tyrosine) to determine organ protein kinetics. This simulated bleed resulted in hypoisoleucinemia that was attenuated by isoleucine infusion. Isoleucine infusion during the bleed resulted in a positive net balance of phenylalanine across liver and muscle, whereas renal and portal drained viscera protein kinetics were unaffected. In the control group, no significant effect was shown.

CONCLUSION

The present study investigated hepatic and portal drained viscera protein metabolism selectively in humans. The data show that hepatic and muscle protein synthesis is stimulated by improving the amino acid composition of the upper GI bleed by simultaneous intravenous isoleucine administration.

Review article: the relevance of portal pressure and other risk factors in acute gastro-oesophageal variceal bleeding

Gastro-oesophageal variceal bleeding is the last step in a chain of events that starts with an increased portal pressure, and is followed by the formation and progressive dilatation of gastro-oesophageal varices. When the tension of the thin wall of the varices exceeds its elastic limit, the varices rupture and bleed. Wall tension is directly proportional to variceal pressure (which is a function of portal pressure) and variceal radius, and inversely related to the thickness of the variceal wall. The above facts explain why a high portal pressure (usually determined by the hepatic venous pressure gradient, or HVPG) and the presence at endoscopy of large varices with red wheals, red spots or diffuse redness on the varices (signalling a reduced wall thickness) correlate with the risk of bleeding.

Predicting survival in patients with liver cancer considered for transarterial chemoembolization

INTRODUCTION

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been used extensively to treat tumours confined to the liver in patients unsuitable for surgical resection. This study attempts to identify patients with liver cancer most likely to benefit from this type of treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients undergoing TACE for liver cancer between 1989 and 2001 were included in the study.

RESULTS

In a group of 137 consecutive patients undergoing TACE, univariate analysis identified a number of pre-treatment factors that were associated with poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis of these factors subsequently identified three pre-treatment factors; age greater than 60, serum alkaline phosphatase concentration >120U/l and albumin less than 35 g/l; that were independently and significantly associated with reduced survival duration. A scoring system was devised with one point allocated for each adverse factor which produced median survivals related to points scored as follows, 0 points-20 months, 1 point-12 months, 2 points-7 months and 3 points-4 months. To validate this scoring system the next 40 consecutive patients undergoing TACE were studied prospectively. These patients had median survival durations related to points scored as follows 0 points not calculable, 1 point-10 months, 2 points-7 months, 3 points-4 months.

CONCLUSION

This simple scoring system can be used to predict prognosis in patients with liver cancer and may assist in clinical decision making in the selection of patients likely to benefit from TACE.

Portal hypertensive bleeding

Portal hypertension bleeding is a common and serious complication of cirrhosis. All patients with cirrhosis should undergo endoscopy and be evaluated for possible causes of current or future portal hypertensive bleeding. Possible causes of bleeding include esophageal varices, gastric varices, and PHG. Patients with esophageal varices at high risk of bleeding should be treated with nonselective beta-blockers for primary prevention of variceal hemorrhage. HVPG measurements represent the optimal way to monitor the success of pharmacologic therapy. EVL may be used in those with high-risk varices who do not tolerate beta-blockers. When active bleeding develops, simultaneous and coordinated attention must be given to hemodynamic resuscitation, prevention and treatment of complications, and active control of bleeding. In cases of acute esophageal variceal (Fig. 5) and PHG bleeding, terlipressin, somatostatin, or octreotide should be started. Endoscopic treatment is provided for those with bleeding esophageal varices. If first-line therapy fails, TIPS or surgery may need to be performed. Unlike esophageal variceal or PHG bleeding, there is no established optimal treatment for gastric variceal bleeding. Individual and specific treatment modalities for acute gastric variceal bleeding must be calculated carefully after considering side effects.

Upper digestive bleeding in cirrhosis. Post-therapeutic outcome and prognostic indicators

Several treatments have been proven to be effective for variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. The aim of this multicenter, prospective, cohort study was to assess how these treatments are used in clinical practice and what are the posttherapeutic prognosis and prognostic indicators of upper digestive bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. A training set of 291 and a test set of 174 bleeding cirrhotic patients were included. Treatment was according to the preferences of each center and the follow-up period was 6 weeks. Predictive rules for 5-day failure (uncontrolled bleeding, rebleeding, or death) and 6-week mortality were developed by the logistic model in the training set and validated in the test set. Initial treatment controlled bleeding in 90% of patients, including vasoactive drugs in 27%, endoscopic therapy in 10%, combined (endoscopic and vasoactive) in 45%, balloon tamponade alone in 1%, and none in 17%. The 5-day failure rate was 13%, 6-week rebleeding was 17%, and mortality was 20%. Corresponding findings for variceal versus nonvariceal bleeding were 15% versus 7% (P =.034), 19% versus 10% (P =.019), and 20% versus 15% (P =.22). Active bleeding on endoscopy, hematocrit levels, aminotransferase levels, Child-Pugh class, and portal vein thrombosis were significant predictors of 5-day failure; alcohol-induced etiology, bilirubin, albumin, encephalopathy, and hepatocarcinoma were predictors of 6-week mortality. Prognostic reassessment including blood transfusions improved the predictive accuracy. All the developed prognostic models were superior to the Child-Pugh score. In conclusion, prognosis of digestive bleeding in cirrhosis has much improved over the past 2 decades. Initial treatment stops bleeding in 90% of patients. Accurate predictive rules are provided for early recognition of high-risk patients.

A comparison of Child-Pugh, APACHE II and APACHE III scoring systems in predicting hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic accuracy of Child-Pugh and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting short-term, hospital mortality of patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

200 admissions of 147 cirrhotic patients (44% viral-associated liver cirrhosis, 33% alcoholic, 18.5% cryptogenic, 4.5% both viral and alcoholic) were studied prospectively. Clinical and laboratory data conforming to the Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores were recorded on day 1 for all patients. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under a ROC curve (AUC). Calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

RESULTS

Overall mortality was 11.5%. The mean Child-Pugh, APACHE II and III scores for survivors were found to be significantly lower than those of nonsurvivors. Discrimination was excellent for Child-Pugh (ROC AUC: 0.859) and APACHE III (ROC AUC: 0.816) scores, and acceptable for APACHE II score (ROC AUC: 0.759). Although the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic revealed adequate goodness-of-fit for Child-Pugh score (P = 0.192), this was not the case for APACHE II and III scores (P = 0.004 and 0.003 respectively)

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that, of the three models, Child-Pugh score had the least statistically significant discrepancy between predicted and observed mortality across the strata of increasing predicting mortality. This supports the hypothesis that APACHE scores do not work accurately outside ICU settings.

The pathophysiological basis of acute-on-chronic liver failure

The vast majority of patients that are referred to a specialist hepatological centre suffer from acute deterioration of their chronic liver disease. Yet, this entity of acute-on-chronic liver failure remains poorly defined. With the emergence of newer liver support strategies, it has become necessary to define this entity, its pathophysiology and the short and long-term prognosis. This review focuses upon how a precipitant such as an episode of gastrointestinal bleeding or sepsis may start a cascade of events that culminate in end-organ dysfunction and liver failure. We briefly review the pathophysiological basis of the therapeutic modalities that are available. Our current strategy for the management of liver failure involves supportive therapy for the end-organs with the hope that the liver function would recover if sufficient time for such a recovery is allowed. Because liver failure, whether of the acute or acute-on-chronic variety, is potentially reversible, the stage is set for the application of newer liver support strategies to enhance the recovery process.

Primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding in cirrhosis

Variceal bleeding is the result of portal hypertension, which is a major complication of liver cirrhosis and carries a high mortality rate. Because of the mortality associated with variceal bleeding, strategies for prevention of the first bleed is important. Risk stratification is important in determining those at risk of bleeding from varices and current data suggest that patients with large varices with red signs, severe underlying liver disease and those who have a hepatic venous pressure gradient of greater than 12 mmHg are at high risk of bleeding. Surveillance for varices in patients with cirrhosis is therefore important. The current review evaluates the role of various treatments in the primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding. The current first choice treatment is non-selective beta-blockers; which is cheap, easy to administer, and reduces the risk of first variceal haemorrhage significantly. Combination of beta-blockers and nitrates looks promising but needs further evaluation. Endoscopic variceal band ligation compares favourably with non-selective beta-blockers in preventing the first bleeding episode in cirrhotic patients and may be an alternative for patients who cannot tolerate, or have contraindications to beta-blockers. The role of monitoring the hepatic venous pressure gradient in those being treated with pharmacological agents, the role of newer drugs such as non-selective beta-blockers with intrinsic alpha-adrenergic activity and angiotensin receptor blockers require further evaluation.

Oesophageal varices: assessment of the risk of bleeding and mortality

Patients with oesophageal varices run a high risk of bleeding and even death, however rates of bleeding and mortality vary greatly. Indeed, a number of patients with varices never bleed. Prophylactic therapy is effective, but can be associated with side-effects. It remains to be determined which patients are at high risk of bleeding and require treatment. In addition, since non-response to medical therapy has been reported to occur in 20-40% of patients, the effect of a given prophylactic drug, or combinations of drugs, needs to be tested. A review is given of available methods of assessment. The Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient, and measurements of the variceal pressure, are two proven methods, and the latter has the advantages of being non-invasive and having value in presinusoidal portal hypertension.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction

OBJECTIVE

We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding.

METHODS

This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed.

RESULTS

Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76.

CONCLUSIONS

SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

Predictors of morbidity and mortality after the first episode of upper gastrointestinal bleeding in liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most frequent causes of morbidity and mortality in the course of liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to determine the independent predictors of morbidity, mortality, and survival after the first episode of GI bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

In a retrospective study of 403 cirrhotic patients who were admitted in the period January 1982 to December 1994 because of a first episode of GI hemorrhage, epidemiological factors, bleeding-related variables and cirrhosis-related variables that may be associated with hepatic and extrahepatic complications, mortality at 48 h and 6 weeks, and survival up to 30 June 1996 were assessed.

RESULTS

Forty-five percent of patients developed hepatic and/or extrahepatic complications, with a mortality rate of 7.4% at 48 h and 24% at 6 weeks. Renal failure, rebleeding, hepatocellular carcinoma, and hepatic encephalopathy were independent predictors of mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method showed a median survival of 30.9+/-4.5 months (95% confidence interval 22 to 39.7 months). The cumulative percentage of survivors was 60.2% at 1 year, 33.6% at 5 years, and 14% at 10 years. In a Cox's multiple regression analysis, age, hepatic encephalopathy, hepatocellular carcinoma, Child-Pugh grade, and renal failure were independently associated with long-term survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The first episode of GI bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Renal failure, rebleeding, hepatocellular carcinoma, and hepatic encephalopathy were independent risk factors for early death.

A predictive model for failure to control bleeding during acute variceal haemorrhage

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Variceal bleeding is a frequent complication of cirrhosis and is associated with a high risk of early rebleeding. In patients with peptic ulcers, continued bleeding or early rebleeding are risk factors for mortality and can be predicted by statistical models; however, no such models exist for acute variceal bleeding.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated failure to control bleeding in 695 consecutive patients with cirrhosis, admitted for haematemesis and/or melaena. Criteria were defined for failure to control bleeding, which comprised both continued bleeding or early rebleeding within 5 days of admission. There were 2 sequential groups of patients: (i) those with variceal bleeding initially treated with blood transfusion and vasoactive drugs, and if these failed followed by sclerotherapy (n = 385); (ii) those with variceal bleeding treated with injection sclerotherapy at diagnostic endoscopy (n = 144). The third group was those with bleeding from other sources related to portal hypertension (n = 166).

RESULTS

Failure to control bleeding was noted in 169 (44%) patients in group 1, 55 (38%) in group 2 and 44 (25%) in group 3. Twenty variables that were evaluable within 6 h of admission, pertaining to severity of bleeding, severity of type of liver disease, mode of admission, and time of diagnostic endoscopy, were entered into a multivariate Cox model. Independent predictors of early rebleeding in group 1 were: active bleeding at endoscopy (irrespective of interval from admission) (p<0.0001), encephalopathy (p = 0.007), platelet count (p = 0.002), history of alcoholism (p = 0.002), presentation with haematemesis (p = 0.02), log urea (p = 0.03) and (shorter) interval to admission (p = 0.007). The variables predictive of 30-day mortality were: early bleeding (p<0.0007), bilirubin (p = 0.0006), encephalopathy (p<0.0001), (shorter) interval to admission (p<0.0001), and log urea (p = 0.004); a model based on these variables was also a good predictor of mortality in the other 2 groups. However, the model derived from group 1 for failure to control variceal bleeding was different in group 2, despite similar patient characteristics and a similar failure rate (following a single injection). This could suggest that sclerotherapy may induce bleeding in some patients independently of the baseline risk for failure to control bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

In cirrhotic patients who present with haematemesis or melaena, active variceal bleeding at diagnostic endoscopy is predictive of failure to control bleeding (continued bleeding or early rebleeding within 5 days of admission), and this failure is predictive of 30-day mortality.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: an ammoniagenic and catabolic event due to the total absence of isoleucine in the haemoglobin molecule

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding causes increased urea concentrations in patients with normal liver function and high ammonia concentrations in patients with impaired liver function. This ammoniagenesis may precipitate encephalopathy. The haemoglobin molecule is unique because it lacks the essential amino acid isoleucine and has high amounts of leucine and valine. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding therefore presents the gut with protein of very low biologic value, which may be the stimulus to induce a cascade of events culminating in net catabolism. This may influence the function of rapidly dividing cells and short half-life proteins. We hypothesize that, following a variceal bleed in a cirrhotic patient, the lack of isoleucine in blood protein is the cause of the exaggerated ammoniagenesis and catabolism. We propose that intravenous administration of isoleucine may serve as a simple therapeutic that transforms blood protein in a balanced protein, resulting in only a short-lived rise in ammonia and urea production, and preventing interference with protein synthesis.

The Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score as a descriptor of patient outcome in septic shock compared with two other scoring systems

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate if daily Multiple Organ Dysfunction scoring could describe outcome groups in septic shock better than daily Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and Organ Failure scores.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING

A medical and surgical adult intensive care unit (ICU) at a tertiary referral center.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Daily data collection over a 14-month period was performed on 368 ICU patients, 39 of whom developed septic shock while in the ICU. These data were entered into a computer programmed to calculate APACHE II, Organ Failure, and Multiple Organ Dysfunction scores. The admission Multiple Organ Dysfunction scores for nonsurvivors and survivors of septic shock in the ICU was 6.5 +/- 2.7 and 6.6 +/- 2.8 (SD), respectively. These patients deteriorated due to the development of septic shock during their ICU stay resulting in a maximum Multiple Organ Dysfunction score of 12.2 +/- 3.7 in nonsurvivors and 9.4 +/- 2.7 in survivors (p < .05). The difference between the maximum and initial Multiple Organ Dysfunction scores (delta score) was also significantly greater in nonsurvivors than in survivors (5.6 +/- 4.7 vs. 2.8 +/- 3.0) (p < .05). There were no significant differences between the maximum and delta scores in the outcome groups using the APACHE II and Organ Failure scoring systems. These results were mirrored by 2.3 +/- 0.7 and 1.7 +/- 0.5 organ failures in nonsurvivors and survivors, respectively (p < .01). For all 368 patients, the initial and maximum Multiple Organ Dysfunction scores were 3.5 +/- 2.5 and 10.5 +/- 3.6, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Maximum and delta Multiple Organ Dysfunction scores mirrored organ dysfunction and could accurately describe the outcome groups, whereas daily APACHE II and Organ Failure scores could not.

Factors predictive of referral to psychiatric hospital among general hospital psychiatric consultations

The aim of this paper was to explore the factors necessitating psychiatric hospital care in a Finnish multi-centre study of general hospital in-patients referred for psychiatric consultation. The study group consisted of 1251 patients referred to psychiatric hospital (n = 181) and a comparison group (n = 1070) consisting of subjects who were not referred. Differences between groups were studied by univariate analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used both to assess the factors contributing to referral to psychiatric hospital and to create predictive models. The validity of the models was analysed by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in an independent sample. Psychiatric hospital care during the previous 5 years was associated with a 3.7-fold (odds ratio) increased risk of hospitalization. A diagnosis of psychosis was associated with a 2.9-fold increased risk, and attempted suicide as a reason for consultation was associated with a 2.1-fold increased risk. Not being married doubled the risk, and the odds ratio was also high in cases of poor psychosocial functioning (as assessed by Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) score). The predictive model differentiated reasonably well between those patients who were hospitalized and the other patients. In conclusion, this multi-centre study of factors predictive of referral to psychiatric hospital among general hospital patients revealed that the most important determinants were previous psychiatric care, diagnosis of psychosis or severe depression, attempted suicide, being unmarried, and poor psychosocial functioning as assessed by GAF score.

Natural history. Clinical-haemodynamic correlations. Prediction of the risk of bleeding

Promoting the development of oesophageal varices and ascites, portal hypertension dominates the clinical course of cirrhosis. Varices appear in patients with portal pressure gradient above 10 mmHg and enlarge in 10-20% within 1-2 years of their detection. Bleeding occurs in patients with portal pressure gradient above 12 mmHg when the wall tension causes the rupture of varices, with an incidence of about 10% per year. Indicators of bleeding risk are portal pressure gradient, variceal pressure, large varices and liver dysfunction. Mortality per bleeding episode is 30-50%. Among survivors 60% will rebleed and 30% will die in the following year. The risk of rebleeding decreases in patients with spontaneous or treatment induced reduction of portal pressure gradient or variceal pressure. Ascites develops in almost all patients along the course of the disease. Median survival after its appearance is less than 2 years. Less than 5% of cirrhotic patients die without ascites or without a previous bleeding. Thus portal hypertension is a major determinant of survival in cirrhosis.

Prognostic significance of bacterial infection in bleeding cirrhotic patients: a prospective study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

In cirrhotic patients, bacterial infection is frequently associated with gastrointestinal bleeding and seems to increase mortality. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of bacterial infections in bleeding cirrhotic patients and the influence of infections on the risk of rebleeding and death.

METHODS

Cirrhotic patients admitted for gastrointestinal bleeding who had not received antimicrobial chemotherapy in the previous 7 days were included. Blood, urine, and ascitic fluid cultures were systematically performed 1, 2, 4, and 7 days after admission.

RESULTS

Sixty-four patients were enrolled. Forty-two bacterial infections were documented in 23 patients (36%) within 7 days of admission. In patients with bacterial infection, mean Child-Pugh score and mean number of blood units transfused were significantly higher, early rebleeding was more frequent (43.5% vs. 9.8%; P < 0.01), and 4-week mortality was higher (47.8% vs. 14.6%; P < 0.01). Multivariate analysis only identified bacterial infections as predictive of early rebleeding (P < 0.02) and a high Child-Pugh score as predictive of death (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In bleeding cirrhotic patients, bacterial infections only increase the risk of early rebleeding, and mortality is related to the severity of cirrhosis.

Prediction of outcome from intensive care after gastroenterologic emergency

Prognostic factors determining the outcome from intensive care were studied in 952 patients admitted to 25 Finnish ICUs after gastroenterologic emergency. Logistic regression analysis was used to create predictive models based on the APACHE II-system. The models were constructed by using data from a random two-thirds of the study population and validated in the remaining independent one-third together with the original APACHE II-index. The Acute Physiology Score, age, and a pre-existing liver disease were the three most important determinants of outcome. The inclusion of the TISS score describing the intensity of treatment into a model did not enhance the accuracy of the prediction. Our models were better calibrated than the original APACHE II-equation when tested by the goodness-of-fit -statistics. These statistical models may help the clinicians to predict the outcome for an individual patient by providing them information about the relative impacts of predictive factors or about the probability of death. These probabilities should be interpreted cautiously, taking into account the limitations of statistical methods. This is especially important when assessing the highrisk patients. Their number in our study was too low for accurate outcome prediction.

Prophylactic treatment of patients with esophageal varices: is it ever indicated?

The prognosis of patients who bleed from esophageal varices is dismal. Prophylactic treatment of the varix or the elevated portal venous pressure offers a possibility of improving the outlook for these patients. However, as only approximately one-third of patients with varices bleed during their lifetime, correct identification of high-risk patients is vital before embarking on prophylaxis. At present, neither European or Japanese selection criteria are perfect in this respect. The documented incidence of initial variceal bleeding varies between 27% and 48%, and most bleeding episodes occur within the first year after varices are diagnosed. Data from six randomized controlled trials comparing prophylactic beta-blockers with placebo demonstrated a decreased incidence of bleeding in propranolol-treated patients, which in large measure may depend on patient compliance and did not significantly affect survival in all but one study. Early randomized studies of prophylactic sclerotherapy have shown significant reductions in both the incidence of bleeding and mortality, but this promise has not been sustained by subsequent trials, and indeed sclerotherapy was detrimental in two studies. The impressive results in highly selected patients treated in Japan by prophylactic surgery are unlikely to be repeated in a Western setting, involving patient populations that consist predominantly of alcoholic cirrhotics. At present prophylaxis with beta-blockade seems to offer the best therapeutic option, but the future may lie in the development of new interventional techniques such as transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunting (TIPS) or variceal banding, and ultimately with hepatic transplantation.

Balloon tamponade technique and efficacy in variceal haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The option of using direct compression to arrest haemorrhage from an oesophageal varix was introduced by Westphal in 1930. Since then, different types of oesophageal and or gastric balloons have become available for use. The published data concerning the efficacy and complications of the balloon tamponade in the treatment of variceal haemorrhage is evaluated. METHOD-RESULTS: Balloon tamponade as a single therapy may control initial variceal haemorrhage in more than 80% of cases. However, haemostasis is usually transient and is associated with a high rate of complications. As regards the comparison of balloon tamponade with vasoactive drugs such as vasopressin alone or vasopressin + terlipressin or terlipressin + nitroglycerin, it appears that both regimens are comparable in respect to initial control of bleeding, rebleeding, mortality, and complications. There is also evidence suggesting that balloon tamponade is as equally effective as octreotide and somatostatin in the initial control of variceal haemorrhage, but early rebleeding and complications are significantly less with the administration of both drugs. Finally, it appears that balloon tamponade is inferior to endoscopic sclerotherapy in both the acute and the long-term control of variceal haemorrhage.

CONCLUSIONS

Balloon tamponade should be reserved for those patients with variceal haemorrhage in whom bleeding continues despite conservative treatment, or as the first form of treatment only if sclerotherapy is not available.

Factors related to early mortality in cirrhotic patients bleeding from varices and treated by urgent sclerotherapy

Variceal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients carries a high early mortality even when balloon tamponade or emergency sclerotherapy are applied. The aim of this study to identify patients dying within six weeks of their first variceal haemorrhage. One hundred and twenty one patients with parenchymal cirrhosis presenting with the first variceal bleeding episode between June 1983 and December 1988 were studied. Nineteen patients were excluded for various reasons. Emergency sclerotherapy was carried out in cases of active bleeding or where there were endoscopic signs of recent bleeding, and then regularly repeated afterwards. Of the 24 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, three had an independent prognostic value: encephalopathy, prothrombin time, and the number of blood units transfused within the 72 hours of time zero. The subsequent regression equation was able to predict 89% of the patients who will die and 97% of the patients who will still be alive six weeks after their first variceal haemorrhage treated by sclerotherapy. Pugh score was less discriminatory than these last three variables in terms of accuracy of adjustment, goodness of fit to the model, receiver operating characteristic curves, and percentage correct prediction. To measure the accuracy of the prediction rule, our model was applied to another series of 28 cirrhotic patients admitted with their first variceal bleeding during the next period (January 1989 to May 1990). Death and survival were correctly predicted in respectively 82% and 94% of the cases. The use of this score is recommended for the selection of patients with high early mortality after variceal bleeding despite sclerotherapy, and for the design of new therapeutic trials.

Balloon tamponade and vasoactive drugs in the control of acute variceal haemorrhage

Successful pharmacological arrest of haemorrhage might avoid the risk of aspiration associated with tamponade and early studies have suggested that the vasoactive agent somatostatin may be as effective and perhaps safer than tamponade in controlling variceal haemorrhage. In our view, vasopressin has not established a role in management but we retain an open mind regarding the potential use of terlipressin in combination with nitroglycerin. It is unlikely that any of these agents can improve significantly our ability to control variceal haemorrhage when compared to balloon tamponade but they may reduce the incidence of pulmonary complications and thereby reduce subsequent mortality. Tamponade has proved successful in controlling acute haemorrhage from oesophageal varices in our hands. Late complications continue to give cause for concern but until effective safe alternatives to tamponade are developed, we continue to advocate its use for emergency control of acute variceal haemorrhage. Our own studies have shown that the high mortality seen in this patient population may reflect the severity of the underlying liver disease rather than failure of a management policy employing oesophageal tamponade for the initial control of acute variceal haemorrhage.

Terlipressin (triglycyl-lysine vasopressin) controls acute bleeding oesophageal varices. A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial

The haemostatic effect of terlipressin (triglycyl-lysine vasopressin; Glypressin) on bleeding from oesophageal varices was evaluated in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, randomized clinical trial. Patients with clinically suspected liver cirrhosis were included in the study if they had been admitted to hospital with an extensive haemorrhage within the last 24h before diagnostic endoscopy. The patients randomized after stratification for severity of liver disease. Terlipressin or placebo was administered as intravenous bolus injections every 4th h during a period of 24 to 36 h or until the clinical course necessitated active intervention (failure or withdrawal). Sixty patients entered the study; 31 patients were allocated to receive terlipressin, and 29 patients to receive placebo. Bleeding from varices was arrested in 28 of the 31 receiving terlipressin, as compared with 17 of the 29 receiving placebo (p less than 0.01). Patients receiving active drug required significantly fewer blood transfusions (p less than 0.05). Most of the side effects were classified as mild and were registered in the terlipressin group.

Prognostic scores in oesophageal or gastric variceal bleeding

Numerous scoring systems have been developed for the prediction of outcome of variceal bleeding; however, only a few have been evaluated adequately. The object of this study was to improve the classical Child-Pugh score (CPS) and to test other scores from the literature. Patients (n = 82) with endoscopically confirmed variceal bleeding and long-term sclerotherapy were included in the study. Linear logistic regression (LR) was applied to different sets of prognostic variables with regard to 30-day mortality. In addition, scores from the literature were evaluated on the data set. Performance was measured by the accuracy and receiver-operating characteristic curves. The application of LR to all five CPS variables (accuracy, 80%) was superior to the classical CPS (70%). LR with selection from the CPS variables or from other sets of variables resulted in no improvement. Compared with CPS only three scores from the literature, mainly based on subsets of the CPS variables, showed an improved accuracy. It is concluded that CPS is still a good scoring system; however, it can be improved by statistical analysis using the same variables.

Percutaneous control of a portacaval H-graft: description of a new device and its initial clinical application

A percutaneously-controlled inflatable cuff which can change the diameter of a portacaval H-graft has been developed and used in 10 patients. When inflated, the cuff narrows the H-graft to increase portal pressure and reduce shunting. Use of the cuff has been of clinical significance in 3 of 7 long-term surviving patients. Narrowing the shunt improved the clinical state in 2 patients with encephalopathy, and reopening a closed shunt improved ascites in the third patient. Duplex ultrasound and deep Doppler have demonstrated an alteration of hepatic portal blood flow following inflation of the cuff after 6 months. It is concluded that further development of this controlled portacaval H-graft is warranted.

Propranolol in the prevention of recurrent variceal hemorrhage in cirrhotic patients. A controlled trial

A double-blind controlled study of long-acting propranolol in the secondary prevention of variceal hemorrhage was conducted in 81 cirrhotic patients. After the index hemorrhage, all patients were treated with injection sclerotherapy on one occasion to secure hemostasis and then randomized within 72 h to propranolol or placebo therapy which was continued for 2 yr. Study endpoints were severe recurrence of variceal hemorrhage or death. Forty-two patients did not fulfill the entry criteria for the study. Thirty-eight patients received propranolol of whom 18 (47%) had further hemorrhage, 14 died, eight had side-effects (2 withdrawals), and 3 did not complete follow-up. Forty-three patients received placebo of whom 33 (77%) had further hemorrhage, 19 died, 5 had side-effects (2 withdrawals), and 5 failed to complete follow-up. The median time from onset of hemorrhage to starting drug therapy was 6 days for both groups. Life table analysis showed an equivalent incidence of further hemorrhage in both groups over the first 60 days, following which the propranolol group did consistently better than the placebo group. There was a significantly lower incidence of rebleeding in modified Child's C patients receiving propranolol (39%) than those on placebo (90%). No statistically significant effect on mortality was seen. In this study, propranolol reduced the incidence of late recurrence of variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis.

An analysis of the utilisation of an intensive care unit

We monitored the response to intensive care of 480 patients by calculating the difference in their organ failure score on the day of admission and that on the day of discharge, and related the response to hospital outcome. The patients were classified into: A) those who benefited (33%), B) those who might have benefited (28%), C) those who would never or would no longer have benefited (18%) and D) those who did not require intensive care management (21%). The criteria used were response to therapy, individually predicted outcome, hospital outcome and perceived need for intensive care. Group C patients used up 26.8% of the total intensive care unit bed days, while group D patients occupied 3.7%. We concluded that an acute terminal care unit to care for group C patients who have no hope of survival is more appropriate to the needs of our hospital than an intermediate care unit for overnight monitoring of uncomplicated postoperative and non-operative patients (group D).

Identifying ICU patients who would not benefit from total parenteral nutrition

This study attempted to improve patient selection for total parenteral nutrition (TPN) by identifying ICU patients whose prognoses were so hopeless that they would not or would no longer benefit from TPN. Computerized trend analysis of daily Apache II scores, corrected for the presence, number, and duration of major organ system failures was used to predict individual hospital outcome among 50 intensive care unit patients treated with TPN. Thirteen of the 18 deaths were correctly predicted without any false predictions. During the study, the results of predictions were not used to influence clinical decision making. If TPN was withheld in the five patients predicted to die before starting TPN, or withdrawn in the eight patients when they were predicted to die, $28,350 or 11.5% of the cost of TPN during the study period would have been saved. This hypothetical study shows that elimination of inappropriate treatment of patients with hopeless prognosis with the aim of avoiding the prolongation of the process of dying and unnecessary suffering is a compassionate patient-selection strategy that can result in major savings in healthcare resources.