Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and survival in oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Integrating MR radiomics and dynamic hematological factors predicts pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in esophageal cancer

Purpose

We aimed to integrate MR radiomics and dynamic hematological factors to build a model to predict pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

Patients with ESCC receiving NCRT and esophagectomy between September 2014 and September 2022 were retrospectively included. All patients underwent pre-treatment T2-weighted imaging as well as pre-treatment and post-treatment blood tests. Patients were randomly divided to training set and testing set at a ratio of 7:3. Machine learning models were constructed based on MR radiomics and hematological factors to predict pCR, respectively. A nomogram model was developed to integrate MR radiomics and hematological factors. Model performances were evaluated by areas under curves (AUCs), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative.

Results

A total of 82 patients were included, of whom 39 (47.6 %) achieved pCR. The hematological model built with four hematological factors had an AUC of 0.628 (95%CI 0.391-0.852) in the testing set. Two out of 1106 extracted features were selected to build the radiomics model with an AUC of 0.821 (95%CI 0.641-0.981). The nomogram model integrating hematological factors and MR radiomics had best predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.904 (95%CI 0.770-1.000) in the testing set.

Conclusion

An integrated model using dynamic hematological factors and MR radiomics is constructed to accurately predicted pCR to NCRT in ESCC, which may be potentially useful to assist individualized preservation treatment of the esophagus.

Prognostic Relevance of Preoperative Immune, Inflammatory, and Nutritional Biomarkers in Patients Undergoing Gastrectomy for Resectable Gastric Adenocarcinoma: An Observational Multicentre Study

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate different preoperative immune, inflammatory, and nutritional scores and their best cut-off values as predictors of poorer overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients who underwent curative gastric cancer resection. Methods: This was a retrospective observational multicentre study based on data of the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer Registry. Time-dependent Youden index and log-rank test were used to obtain the best cut-offs of 18 preoperative biomarkers for OS and DFS. An adjusted Cox model with variables selected by bootstrapping was used to identify the best preoperative biomarkers, which were also analysed for every TNM stage. Results: High neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), high monocyte systemic inflammation index (moSII), and low prognostic nutritional index (PNI) were identified as independent predictors of poor outcome: NLR > 5.91 (HR:1.73; 95%CI [1.23-2.43]), moSII >2027.12 (HR:2.26; 95%CI [1.36-3.78]), and PNI >40.31 (HR:0.75; 95%CI [0.58-0.96]) for 5-year OS and NLR > 6.81 (HR:1.75; 95%CI [1.24-2.45]), moSII > 2027.12 (HR:2.46; 95%CI [1.49-4.04]), and PNI > 40.31 (HR:0.77; 95%CI [0.60,0.97]) for 5-year DFS. These outcomes were maintained in the whole cohort for NLR and moSII (p < 0.05) but not in stage II and for PNI in all tumoral stages. The associations of NLR-PNI and moSII-PNI were also a relevant prognostic factor for OS. Conclusions: High NLR, high moSII (for stages I and III), and low PNI (regardless of tumour stage) were the most promising preoperative biomarkers to predict poor OS and DFS in gastric cancer patients treated with curative intent.

Haematological and nutritional prognostic biomarkers for patients receiving CROSS or FLOT

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant carboplatin and paclitaxel with radiotherapy (CROSS) and perioperative docetaxel, oxaliplatin, calcium folinate and fluorouracil (FLOT) are widely used for gastric (GC), gastro-oesophageal junction (GOJ) and oesophageal cancers (OC). Prognostic and predictive markers for response and survival outcomes are lacking. This study evaluates dynamic neutrophil-lymphocyte ratios (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte ratios (PLR), albumin and body mass index (BMI) as predictors of survival, response and toxicity.

METHODS

This multi-centre retrospective observational study across 5 Sydney hospitals included patients receiving CROSS or FLOT from 2015 to 2021. Haematological results and BMI were recorded at baseline and pre-operatively, and after adjuvant treatment for FLOT. Toxicities were also recorded. An NLR ≥2 and PLR ≥200 was used to stratify patients. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine predictors of overall survival (OS), disease free survival (DFS), rates of pathological complete response (pCR) and toxicity.

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-eight patients were included (95 FLOT, 73 FLOT). A baseline NLR ≥2 was predictive for worse DFS (HR 2.78, 95% CI: 1.41-5.50, P<0.01) and OS (HR 2.90, 95% CI: 1.48-5.67, P<0.01). Sustained elevation in NLR was predictive for DFS (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.08-2.17, P=0.01) and OS (HR 1.65, 95% CI: 1.17-2.33, P<0.01). An NLR ≥2 correlated with worse pCR rates (16% for NLR ≥2, 48% for NLR <2, P=0.04). A baseline serum albumin <33 was predictive of worse DFS and OS with a HR of 6.17 (P=0.01) and 4.66 (P=0.01) respectively. Baseline PLR, BMI, and dynamic changes in these markers were not associated with DFS, OS or pCR rates. There was no association of the aforementioned variables with toxicity.

CONCLUSIONS

This demonstrates that a high inflammatory state represented by an NLR ≥2, both at baseline and sustained, is prognostic and predictive of response in patients receiving FLOT or CROSS. Baseline hypoalbuminaemia is predictive of poorer outcomes.

Usefulness of Nutrition and Inflammation Assessment Tools in Esophageal Cancer Treatment

Multidisciplinary treatment for esophageal cancer leads to nutritional and inflammatory changes. Recent studies showed that nutritional and inflammatory changes during multidisciplinary treatment affect both short and long-term oncological outcomes in esophageal cancer treatment. Therefore, evaluation of the nutritional and inflammatory status during treatment is necessary in order to optimize and utilize multidisciplinary therapy for esophageal cancer. If patients with esophageal cancer are able to determine their nutritional and inflammatory status, they will be able to select the optimal esophageal cancer, anti-inflammation, and nutritional treatments. Various types of nutrition and inflammation assessment tools have been developed and reported for esophageal cancer, with each tool having its own clinical characteristics, which must be understood before being applied in clinical practice. This review summarizes the background, current status, and future perspectives on the application of nutrition and inflammation assessment tools in esophageal cancer treatment.

Predictive value of NLR and PLR in response to preoperative chemotherapy and prognosis in locally advanced gastric cancer

Purpose

Pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR) ratios are markers of systemic inflammation. In patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (GC), the utility of these ratios in predicting tumor regression grade (TRG) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) remains unclear.

Methods

This retrospective study examined 283 locally advanced GC patients who underwent NCT and radical surgery. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Youden index were applied to identify optimal NLR/PLR cutpoints. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to estimate overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Univariate/multivariate analyses were conducted by the logistic regression method.

Results

TRG grade proved significantly worse in patients with high values of both NLR and PLR whether in univariate (OR = 3.457; p = 0.044) or multivariate (OR = 6.876; p = 0.028) analysis. The degree of tumor differentiation was an independent predictive factor for TRG (OR = 2.874; p = 0.037) in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup analyses, NLR predicted OS (p = 0.04) and DFS (p = 0.03) in female patients, whereas PLR was predictive of both OS (p = 0.026) and DFS (p = 0.018) in patients with clinical TNM stage 3 disease and dissected lymph node counts <28. PLR similarly predicted OS in patients <65 years old (p = 0.049), those with positive lymph nodes (p = 0.021), or those with moderate or poorly differentiated tumors (p = 0.049).

Conclusion

Pretreatment NLR and PLR together serve to independently predict TRG after NCT and surgery in patients with locally advanced GC. Screening for patients with high NLR and PLR values may allow them to benefit upfront from alternatives to NCT.

Survival analysis of 80 elderly patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy with S-1

PURPOSE

This single-center retrospective study aimed to observe survival and prognosis of elderly patients with esophageal cancer receiving radical radiotherapy combined with S1 chemotherapy, and to preliminarily explore whether hematologic indicators or inflammatory indicators before radiotherapy are prognostic factors.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of 80 elderly patients with esophageal cancer who had received radical concurrent chemoradiotherapy from January 2015 to July 2018. The patients were older than 70 years. Radiation therapy was delivered with intensity-modulated irradiation therapy (IMRT) or volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), while the chemotherapy regimen was S1 alone. Toxicities were evaluated in accordance with the criteria of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group. Baseline hematologic basic nutritional indicators, such as hemoglobin (HGB), albumin (ALB), and prealbumin (PAB), along with inflammatory indicators, such as the ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes (NLR), the ratio of platelets to lymphocytes (PLR), were collected to preliminarily analyze their relationship with progression and survival.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 39 months (range 30-65 months). The median overall survival and progression-free survival times were 24 and 17 months, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival rates were 76.5%, 48.1%, and 31.3%, respectively. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year progression-free survival rates were 57.5%, 37.8%, and 29.4%, respectively. T stage, clinical staging, and lesion region were independent prognostic factors for OS. No significant associations with prognosis were observed either for baseline hematologic or for inflammatory indicators (all P>0.05). The rates of esophagitis (grade 2 and above) and hematologic toxicity were 60% and 45%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Oral S-1 combined with definitive concurrent radiotherapy for elderly patients with esophageal cancer has a significant survival benefit. The toxicities are well tolerated. It seems that prognosis does not correlate with baseline hematologic nutritional indicators and inflammatory indicators.

Prognostic, Diagnostic and Predictive Biomarkers in the Barrett’s Oesophagus-Adenocarcinoma Disease Sequence

Simple Summary

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is a type of cancer of the oesophagus (food pipe) which is associated with poor patient outcomes. Barrett’s oesophagus (BO) is a precancerous condition of the oesophagus associated with chronic heartburn. Currently, surveillance programs exist which monitor patients with BO to prevent it from developing into OAC. However, these surveillance programs are expensive and unpleasant for patients. Prognostic biomarkers are signs which could be measured to determine the chance of someone with BO developing OAC, allowing more targeted surveillance. Similarly, diagnostic biomarkers are indicators which could be measured to see if someone has OAC. Developing new diagnostic biomarkers could allow wider population testing. Only a small proportion of patients with OAC respond to treatment before surgery. Predictive biomarkers could be measured to predict whether someone would respond to the treatments, allowing more individualized therapy. This review focuses on potential biomarkers which could improve patient outcomes in BO/OAC.

Abstract

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) incidence has increased dramatically in the developed world, yet outcomes remain poor. Extensive endoscopic surveillance programs among patients with Barrett’s oesophagus (BO), the precursor lesion to OAC, have aimed to both prevent the development of OAC via radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and allow earlier detection of disease. However, given the low annual progression rate and the costs of endoscopy/RFA, improvement is needed. Prognostic biomarkers to stratify BO patients based on their likelihood to progress would enable a more targeted approach to surveillance and RFA of high-risk precursor lesions, improving the cost–risk–benefit ratio. Similarly, diagnostic biomarkers for OAC could enable earlier diagnosis of disease by allowing broader population screening. Current standard treatment for locally advanced OAC includes neoadjuvant chemotherapy (+/− radiotherapy) despite only a minority of patients benefiting from neoadjuvant treatment. Accordingly, biomarkers predictive of response to neoadjuvant therapy could improve patient outcomes by reducing time to surgery and unnecessary toxicity for the patients who would have received no benefit from the therapy. In this mini-review, we will discuss the emerging biomarkers which promise to dramatically improve patient outcomes along the BO-OAC disease sequence.

Predicting Response to Neoadjuvant Therapy in Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma

(1) Background: Oesophageal cancers are often late-presenting and have a poor 5-year survival rate. The standard treatment of oesophageal adenocarcinomas involves neoadjuvant chemotherapy with or without radiotherapy followed by surgery. However, less than one third of patients respond to neoadjuvant therapy, thereby unnecessarily exposing patients to toxicity and deconditioning. Hence, there is an urgent need for biomarkers to predict response to neoadjuvant therapy. This review explores the current biomarker landscape. (2) Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE and ClinicalTrial databases were searched with key words relating to “predictive biomarker”, “neoadjuvant therapy” and “oesophageal adenocarcinoma” and screened as per the inclusion and exclusion criteria. All peer-reviewed full-text articles and conference abstracts were included. (3) Results: The search yielded 548 results of which 71 full-texts, conference abstracts and clinical trials were eligible for review. A total of 242 duplicates were removed, 191 articles were screened out, and 44 articles were excluded. (4) Discussion: Biomarkers were discussed in seven categories including imaging, epigenetic, genetic, protein, immunologic, blood and serum-based with remaining studies grouped in a miscellaneous category. (5) Conclusion: Although promising markers and novel methods have emerged, current biomarkers lack sufficient evidence to support clinical application. Novel approaches have been recommended to assess predictive potential more efficiently.

Economic cost–utility analysis of stage-directed gastric cancer treatment

Background

Gastric cancer (GC) treatment levies substantial financial burden on health services. Potentially curative surgery with or without chemotherapy is offered to patients with locoregional disease. This study aimed to examine treatment costs related to life-years gained in patients having potentially curative treatment (gastrectomy) and those receiving best supportive care (BSC).

Methods

Some 398 consecutive patients with GC were classified according to treatment modality (116 BSC, 282 gastrectomy). Cost calculations for 1 year’s treatment from referral were made according to network diagnostic, staging and treatment algorithms. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS).

Results

GC median survival after BSC was 8 months, costing €5413, compared with gastrectomy median survival of 34 months, costing €22 753 for 1 year’s treatment: cost per life-year gained €9319. Cost incurred for stage I GC was €22 434, stage II €23 498, stage III €22 445, and stage IV €22 032. Based on these values, the cost per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) for BSC for stage I GC was –€8335 stage II –€8952, stage III –€11 317, and stage IV –€25 669.

Conclusion

Potentially curative treatment that included gastrectomy improved OS four-fold compared with BSC and was cost-effective at national thresholds of readiness to pay per QALY.

A clinical nomogram for predicting tumor regression grade in esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma treated with immune neoadjuvant immunotherapy

Background

There are various treatment options for esophageal squamous cell cancer. including surgery, peri-operative chemotherapy, and radiation. More recently, neoadjuvant immunotherapy has also been shown improve outcomes. In this study, we addressed the question, "Can we predict which patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer will benefit from neoadjuvant immunotherapy?".

Methods

All patients with thoracic esophageal squamous-cell carcinoma (T2N+M0-T3-4N0/+M0) (according to the eighth edition of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines) who underwent immune neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy with programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) combined with paclitaxel plus cisplatin or nedaplatin in the Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, China, between November 2019 and August 2021 were included in this study. All patients underwent surgical resection. We developed a response [tumor regression grade (TRG)] prediction model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression incorporating factors associated with response. The accuracy of the prediction model was then validated.

Results

We included 79 patients who underwent neoadjuvant immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy, aged 48-78 years (62.05±6.67), including 21 males and 58 females. There were five cases of immune-related pneumonia, of which three cases were diagnosed as immune-related pneumonia during the perioperative period, and one case of immune-related thyroid dysfunction changes. After LASSO regression, the factors that were independently associated with TRG were clinical T stage before neoadjuvant therapy, clinical N stage before neoadjuvant therapy, albumin level difference from before to after neoadjuvant therapy, white blood cell (WBC) count before neoadjuvant therapy, and T stage before surgery. We constructed a prediction model, plotted the nomogram, and verified its accuracy. Its Brier score was 0.13, its calibration slope was 0.98, and its C-index was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.82-0.97).

Conclusions

Our prediction model can predict the likelihood of TRG in patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer after immunotherapy combined with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Using this prediction model, we plan to conduct a subsequent neoadjuvant radiotherapy in patients with of TRG 2-3 patients with neoadjuvant radiotherapy.

Prognostic significance of serum inflammatory markers in esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to assess the relative prognostic value of biomarkers to measure the systemic inflammatory response (SIR) and potentially improve prognostic modeling in patients undergoing potentially curative surgery for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EC).

METHODS

Consecutive 330 patients undergoing surgery for EC between 2004 and 2018 within a regional UK cancer network were identified. Serum measurements of haemoglobin, C-reactive protein, albumin, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS), and differential neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were obtained before surgery, and correlated with histopathological factors and outcomes. Primary outcome measures were disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Of 330 OC patients, 294 underwent potentially curative esophagectomy. Univariable DFS analysis revealed pT, pN, pTNM stage (all p < 0.001), poor differentiation (p = 0.001), vascular invasion (p < 0.001), R1 status (p < 0.001), perioperative chemotherapy (p = 0.009), CRP (p = 0.010), mGPS (p = 0.011), and NLR (p < 0.001), were all associated with poor survival. Multivariable Cox regression analysis of DFS revealed only NLR [Hazard Ratio (HR) 3.63, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 2.11-6.24, p < 0.001] retained significance. Multivariable Cox regression analysis of OS revealed similar findings: NLR [HR 2.66, (95% CI 1.58-4.50), p < 0.001].

CONCLUSION

NLR is an important SIR prognostic biomarker associated with DFS and OS in EC.

Early predictive factors of progression from severe type to critical ill type in patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The current worldwide pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a serious threat to global public health, and the mortality rate of critical ill patients remains high. The purpose of this study was to identify factors that early predict the progression of COVID-19 from severe to critical illness.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included adult patients with severe or critical ill COVID-19 who were consecutively admitted to the Zhongfaxincheng campus of Tongji Hospital (Wuhan, China) from February 8 to 18, 2020. Baseline variables, data at hospital admission and during hospital stay, as well as clinical outcomes were collected from electronic medical records system. The primary endpoint was the development of critical illness. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify independent factors that were associated with the progression from severe to critical illness.

Results

A total of 138 patients were included in the analysis; of them 119 were diagnosed as severe cases and 16 as critical ill cases at hospital admission. During hospital stay, 19 more severe cases progressed to critical illness. For all enrolled patients, longer duration from diagnosis to admission (odds ratio [OR] 1.108, 95% CI 1.022–1.202; P = 0.013), pulse oxygen saturation at admission <93% (OR 5.775, 95% CI 1.257–26.535; P = 0.024), higher neutrophil count (OR 1.495, 95% CI 1.177–1.899; P = 0.001) and higher creatine kinase-MB level at admission (OR 2.449, 95% CI 1.089–5.511; P = 0.030) were associated with a higher risk, whereas higher lymphocyte count at admission (OR 0.149, 95% CI 0.026–0.852; P = 0.032) was associated with a lower risk of critical illness development. For the subgroup of severe cases at hospital admission, the above factors except creatine kinase-MB level were also found to have similar correlation with critical illness development.

Conclusions

Higher neutrophil count and lower lymphocyte count at admission were early independent predictors of progression to critical illness in severe COVID-19 patients.

Does Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) Predict Pathologic Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma?

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT), followed by surgery, is the current standard of care for patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, up to 30% of the patients do not respond to nCRT. Hence, a simple, cost-effective marker to predict response before initiation of nCRT is needed. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been reported as a prognostic marker in various cancers. However, its role as a predictive marker in patients with esophageal SCC planned for nCRT has not been prospectively analyzed.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All consecutive patients with locally advanced (T1N1 and T2-T4a with or without nodal involvement) SCC planned for nCRT (CROSS protocol) followed by esophagectomy with total two field lymphadenectomy between December 2013 and December 2019 were included in this prospective analytical cohort study. NLR was calculated 1 week before starting the nCRT and was correlated with the histopathological response [Mandard tumor regression grade (TRG)].

RESULTS

Of the 216 patients with esophageal cancer evaluated during the study period, 57 patients with SCC who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were included. A good pathologic response (TRG 1 and 2) to nCRT was seen in 28 (49.1%) patients. Using a ROC curve, the optimal cutoff value of pretherapy NLR for predicting good pathologic response was 2.33. With an NLR cutoff value of 2.33, 53.3% of patients had a good pathologic response to nCRT compared with 47.6% patients with NLR ≥ 2.33 (P = 0.77).

CONCLUSION

In patients with locally advanced esophageal SCC, NLR is not a useful marker to predict pathologic response to nCRT.