Number line estimation and standardized test performance: The left digit effect does not predict SAT math score

The left digit effect in an unbounded number line task

The left digit effect in number line estimation refers to the phenomenon where numerals with similar magnitudes but different leftmost digits (e.g., 19 and 22) are estimated to be farther apart on a number line than is warranted. The effect has been studied using a bounded number line task, a task in which a line is bounded by two endpoints (e.g., 0 and 100), and where one must indicate the correct location of a target numeral on the line. The goal of the present work is to investigate the left digit effect in an unbounded number line task, a task that involves using the size of one unit to determine a target numeral's location, and that elicits strategies different from those used in the bounded number line task. In a preregistered study, participants (N = 58 college students) completed four blocks of 38 trials each of an unbounded number line task, with target numerals ranging between 0 and 100. We found a medium and statistically reliable left digit effect (d = 0.70). The study offers further evidence that the effect is not driven by response strategies specific to the bounded number line task. We discuss other possible sources of the effect including conversion of symbols to magnitudes in these and other contexts.

Does instructional intervention reduce the left digit effect in number line estimation?

A robust left digit effect arises in number line estimation, whereby the leftmost digits of numerals have an undue influence on placements such that, for example, numbers like 298 are placed far to the left of numbers like 302. Past efforts to motivate more accurate performance using trial-by-trial and summary feedback have not led to a reduction in the left digit effect. In two experiments, we asked whether it is possible to reduce or eliminate the left digit effect in number line estimation through an instructional intervention in which one is explicitly taught about the left digit effect. In Experiment 1 (N = 134), participants completed two blocks (60 trials per block) of a self-paced 0-1,000 number line estimation task and were randomly assigned to either an instruction or a control condition. In Experiment 2 (N = 143), the procedure was enhanced with a learning check, and with additional measures to assess changes in behaviour as a result of instruction. In both experiments, a left digit effect was found in each block of each condition. Although there was evidence that instruction changed behaviour, these changes did not result in any reduction in the left digit effect relative to the control condition. These findings demonstrate that the left digit effect cannot be easily reduced by making people aware of it.

Modeling the left digit effect in adult number line estimation

Number line estimation tasks are frequently used to study numerical cognition skills. In a typical version, the bounded number line task, target numerals must be placed on a bounded line labeled only at its endpoints (e.g., with 0 and 100). Placements by adults, while highly accurate, reveal a cyclical pattern of over- and underestimation of target numerals. The pattern suggests use of proportion judgment strategies and is well-captured by cyclical power models. Another systematic number line bias that has recently been observed, but has not yet been considered in modeling efforts, is the left digit effect. Numerals with different leftmost digits (e.g., 39 and 41) are placed farther apart on a line than is warranted. In the current study (N = 60), adult estimates were obtained for all numerals on a 0-100 number line estimation task, and fit of the standard cyclical power model was compared with two modified versions of the model. One modified version included a parameter that underweights the rightward digit's place value (e.g., the ones digit here), and the other used the same parameter to underweight all digits' place values. We found that both modifications provided a considerably better fit for individual and median data than the standard model, and we discuss their relative merits and cognitive interpretations. The data and models suggest how a left digit bias might impact estimates across the number line.

Summary accuracy feedback and the left digit effect in number line estimation

A robust left digit effect arises in number line estimation such that adults' estimates for numerals with different hundreds place digits but nearly identical magnitudes are systematically different from one another (e.g., 299 is placed too far to the left of 302). In two experiments, we investigate whether brief feedback interventions designed to increase task effort can reduce or eliminate the left digit effect in a self-paced 0-1,000 number line estimation task. Participants were assigned to complete three blocks of 120 trials each where the middle block contained feedback or no feedback. Feedback was in the form of summary accuracy scores (Experiment 1; N = 153) or competitive (summary) accuracy scores (Experiment 2; N = 145). In both experiments, planned analyses revealed large left digit effects in all blocks regardless of feedback condition. Feedback did not lead to a reduction in the left digit effect in either experiment, but improvements in overall accuracy were observed. We conclude that there are no changes in the left digit effect resulting from either summary accuracy feedback or competitive accuracy feedback. Also reported are exploratory analyses of trial characteristics (e.g., whether 299 is presented before or after 302) and the left digit effect.

Number line estimation and standardized test performance: The left digit effect does not predict SAT math score

INTRODUCTION

Recent work reveals a new source of error in number line estimation (NLE), the left digit effect (Lai, Zax, et al., 2018), whereby numerals with different leftmost digits but similar magnitudes (e.g., 399, 401) are placed farther apart on a number line (e.g., 0 to 1,000) than is warranted. The goals of the present study were to: (1) replicate the left digit effect, and (2) assess whether it is related to mathematical achievement.

METHOD

Participants were all individuals (adult college students) who completed the NLE task in the laboratory between 2014 and 2019 for whom SAT scores were available (n = 227).

RESULTS

We replicated the left digit effect but found its size was not correlated with SAT math score, although it was negatively correlated with SAT verbal score for one NLE task version.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide further evidence that individual digits strongly influence estimation performance and suggest that this effect may have different cognitive contributors, and predict different complex skills, than overall NLE accuracy.