The prevalence of false confessions in experimental laboratory simulations: A meta-analysis

False Confessions: An Integrative Review of the Phenomenon

Confessions are an important evidentiary part of the legal process, and false confessions have been notable contributors to wrongful convictions. However, academic research in the psychology and law field primarily relies on student or volunteer samples in staged exercises, methodological features that lack ecological validity for replicating police interrogation or the pressures distinctive to high stakes crime investigations. Here, we provide an integrative review of research and data on false confessions during police interrogations with distinctions of key concepts, relevant case law pertaining to confessions including several U.S. Supreme Court decisions, updating the typology of false confessions, the quantification of false confessions, risk factors for false confessions, interrogation risk factors for false confessions, validity threats to false confessions research, and recommended directions for informing courts and the law.

Interview and interrogation methods and their effects on true and false confessions: A systematic review update and extension

Background

False confessions are often the product of an interrogation process, and the method by which an interrogation is conducted likely affects both the rate of truthful confessions and false confessions. An optimal interrogation method will maximize the former and minimize the latter.

Objectives

The current study was a partial update and extension of Meissner and colleagues' (2012) prior Campbell systematic review titled Interview and Interrogation Methods and their Effects on True and False Confessions. Our objective was to assess the effects of interrogation approach on the rates of true and false confessions for criminal (mock) suspects.

Search Methods

PsycINFO, Criminal Justice Abstracts, and 15 other databases were searched starting October 20, 2022, with the final search conducted on May 23, 2023; together with reference checking, citation searching, and contact with authors to identify additional studies.

Selection Criteria

All eligible studies experimentally manipulated interrogation approach (i.e., accusatorial, information-gathering, or direct questioning) were conducted with mock suspects accused of wrongdoing where ground truth was known, and included information about confession rates.

Data Collection and Analysis

We used standard methodological procedures expected by The Campbell Collaboration for our selection of studies and data collection. However, we developed our own risk of bias items and analyzed our data using network meta-analysis methods. Data were synthesized via random-effects network meta-analysis based on the logged odds ratio.

Main Results

Across the 27 research articles that provided statistical information sufficient to calculate an effect size, 29 individual studies provided a total of 81 effect sizes. Most studies were conducted with college students in the United States. Overall, our risk of bias assessment indicated that authors generally adhered to double-blind procedures and avoided selective reporting of outcomes. Of note, however, it was often unclear how violations of the randomization process were dealt with.For true confessions, there were 12 studies estimating the effect between accusatorial and direct questioning, five estimating the effect between information-gathering and direct questioning, and another five estimating the effect between accusatorial and information-gathering. Compared to information-gathering, on average, the accusatorial conditions observed fewer true confessions, although not statistically significant (combined OR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.29, 1.05). The largest effects were between information-gathering and direct questioning, with the former producing significantly more true confessions on average (combined OR = 2.43, 95% CI 1.29, 4.59). This model showed good consistency between the direct and indirect effects.For false confessions, there were 20 studies estimating the effect between accusatorial and direct questioning, 4 studies estimating the effect between information-gathering and direct questioning, and 7 estimating the effect between accusatorial and information-gathering. On average, accusatorial conditions yielded more false confessions than direct questioning (combined OR = 3.03, 95% CI 1.83, 5.02) or information-gathering (combined OR = 4.41, 95% CI 1.77, 10.97), both of which are statistically significant. In contrast, direct questioning and information-gathering had roughly similar rates of false confessions with nonsignificant and small effects that slightly favored information-gathering (combined OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.27, 1.78). This model showed good consistency between the direct and indirect effects.For true confessions under a six-node model, most of the direct, indirect, and combined network estimated mean odds ratios were not statistically significant. The only significant effects were for (1) information-gathering versus direct questioning, with the former resulting in more true confessions (combined OR = 2.57, 95% CI 1.38, 4.78); and (2) accusatorial-evidence ploy versus information-gathering with the former resulting in fewer true confessions (combined OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.16, 0.84).For false confessions under a six-node model, we found significant effects for (1) accusatorial-evidence ploys versus direct questioning, with the former resulting in more false confessions (combined OR = 2.98, 95% CI 1.59, 5.59); (2) accusatorial-evidence ploys versus information-gathering, with the former resulting in more false confessions (combined OR = 4.47, 95% CI 1.46, 13.68); (3) accusatorial-other versus direct questioning, with the former resulting in more false confessions (combined OR = 3.12, 95% CI 1.37, 7.10); (4) accusatorial-other versus information-gathering, with the former resulting in more false confessions (combined OR = 4.67, 95% CI 1.61, 13.55); and (5) information-gathering versus minimization, with the latter resulting in more false confessions (combined OR = 0.25, 95% CI = 0.08, 0.83). No other combined effects were significant. This model should be interpreted cautiously, however, as the Q statistics raised concerns regarding model consistency.

Authors' Conclusions

Overall, results support calls for reforming policies related to interviewing and interrogation practices to prohibit the use of accusatorial approaches and require the adoption of approaches that are science-based.

PROTOCOL: Interview and interrogation methods and their effects on true and false confessions: An update and extension

This is the protocol for a Campbell systematic review. The objective is to assess the effects of interrogation approach on confession outcomes for criminal (mock) suspects.

Why admitted cases of AHT make a low quality reference standard: A survey of people accused of AHT in France

Several influential articles that attempt to establish diagnostic methods for Abusive Head Trauma (AHT) use admitted cases as a reference standard. This study analyses a survey of people accused of AHT in France, to understand the environment and situations in which such admissions are made. Multiple reasons to question the reliability of admissions to AHT are demonstrated in the responses, including reduced sentences, the return of children to the family home, a desire to stop accusations being leveled at a partner and for legal proceedings to end. These factors must be considered in the context of proceedings that are long, expensive and stressful, leading to depression and financial hardship, and that seem to be inevitably heading towards conviction. The ineluctable conclusion is that admitted cases do not make a suitably reliable reference standard for undertaking scientific investigation, or for validating the diagnostic methods used for AHT.

Do laypeople recognize youth as a risk factor for false confession? A test of the 'common sense' hypothesis

In a survey of confession experts, 94% agreed that youth is a risk factor for false confession, but only 37% felt that jurors understand this. To date, no study has tested the latter by comparing laypeople's perceptions of juvenile and adult suspects. To address this gap, Experiment 1 participants read a lengthy (i.e. interrogation and confession) or abridged (i.e. confession-only) transcript of an ostensibly juvenile or adult suspect's interrogation. Transcript length affected perceived pressure but not guilt judgments. Suspect age had little effect, with 75% of participants misjudging the juvenile as guilty. Experiment 2 then tested how expert testimony affects judgments of juvenile suspects. Participants read a lengthy or abridged interrogation transcript, with or without testimony from a juvenile confession expert. Expert testimony somewhat impacted guilt judgments but did not influence perceptions of the interrogation. Implications for interrogation practices, trial procedure and future research are discussed.