Development and validation of a simple risk model to predict major cancers for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Global epidemiology of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) shares common pathophysiological mechanisms with type 2 diabetes, making them significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. The present study aimed to assess the epidemiological feature of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD at global levels.

METHODS

Published studies were searched for terms that included type 2 diabetes, and NAFLD or MAFLD using PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Web of Science databases from their inception to December 2022. The pooled global and regional prevalence and incidence density of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD were evaluated using random-effects meta-analysis. Potential sources of heterogeneity were investigated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression.

RESULTS

A total of 395 studies (6,878,568 participants with NAFLD; 1,172,637 participants with MAFLD) from 40 countries or areas were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of type 2 diabetes among NAFLD or MAFLD patients was 28.3% (95% confidence interval 25.2-31.6%) and 26.2% (23.9-28.6%) globally. The incidence density of type 2 diabetes in NAFLD or MAFLD patients was 24.6 per 1000-person year (20.7 to 29.2) and 26.9 per 1000-person year (7.3 to 44.4), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study describes the global prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD. The study findings serve as a valuable resource to assess the global clinical and economic impact of type 2 diabetes in patients with NAFLD or MAFLD.

Identification of Hub Genes and Biological Mechanisms Associated with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

The relationship between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) has been widely recognized, but the underlying mechanisms are still unknown. The objective of this study was to identify the hub genes associated with NAFLD and TNBC, and to explore the potential co-pathogenesis and prognostic linkage of these two diseases. We used GEO, TCGA, STRING, ssGSEA, and Rstudio to investigate the common differentially expressed genes (DEGs), conduct functional and signaling pathway enrichment analyses, and determine prognostic value between TNBC and NAFLD. GO and KEGG enrichment analyses of the common DEGs showed that they were enriched in leukocyte aggregation, migration and adhesion, apoptosis regulation, and the PPAR signaling pathway. Fourteen candidate hub genes most likely to mediate NAFLD and TNBC occurrence were identified and validation results in a new cohort showed that ITGB2, RAC2, ITGAM, and CYBA were upregulated in both diseases. A univariate Cox analysis suggested that high expression levels of ITGB2, RAC2, ITGAM, and CXCL10 were associated with a good prognosis in TNBC. Immune infiltration analysis of TNBC samples showed that NCF2, ICAM1, and CXCL10 were significantly associated with activated CD8 T cells and activated CD4 T cells. NCF2, CXCL10, and CYBB were correlated with regulatory T cells and myeloid-derived suppressor cells. This study demonstrated that the redox reactions regulated by the NADPH oxidase (NOX) subunit genes and the transport and activation of immune cells regulated by integrins may play a central role in the co-occurrence trend of NAFLD and TNBC. Additionally, ITGB2, RAC2, and ITGAM were upregulated in both diseases and were prognostic protective factors of TNBC; they may be potential therapeutic targets for treatment of TNBC patients with NAFLD, but further experimental studies are still needed.

Cigarette smoking and liver diseases

Cigarette smoking is a preventable risk factor for premature morbidity and mortality. A history of smoking is observed in approximately 40% of patients with liver disease, while a growing number of studies are investigating the potential impact of smoking in chronic liver diseases. This review discusses the effects of smoking on liver diseases, at multiple levels, with a focus on its potential causal role. Clinical evidence indicates that cigarette smoking negatively impacts the incidence and severity of fatty liver disease, fibrosis progression, hepatocellular carcinoma development, and the outcomes of patients with advanced liver disease. The underlying mechanisms are complex and involve different pathophysiological pathways including oxidative stress and oncogenic signals. Importantly, smoking promotes cardiovascular disease and extrahepatic cancers in patients with steatohepatitis and in transplant recipients. We discuss how promoting smoking cessation could improve the rates of treatment response (in clinical trials) and fibrosis regression, while reducing the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and improving liver transplant outcomes. Finally, we discuss current challenges such as the referral of smokers to specialised units for smoking cessation.

A novel simple risk model to predict the prognosis of patients with paraquat poisoning

To identify risk factors and develop a simple model to predict early prognosis of acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning patients, we performed a retrospective cohort study of acute PQ poisoning patients (n = 1199). Patients (n = 913) with PQ poisoning from 2011 to 2018 were randomly divided into training (n = 609) and test (n = 304) samples. Another two independent cohorts were used as validation samples for a different time (n = 207) and site (n = 79). Risk factors were identified using a logistic model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and further evaluated using a latent class analysis. The prediction score was developed based on the training sample and was evaluated using the testing and validation samples. Eight factors, including age, ingestion volume, creatine kinase-MB [CK-MB], platelet [PLT], white blood cell [WBC], neutrophil counts [N], gamma-glutamyl transferase [GGT], and serum creatinine [Cr] were identified as independent risk indicators of in-hospital death events. The risk model had C statistics of 0.895 (95% CI 0.855-0.928), 0.891 (95% CI 0.848-0.932), and 0.829 (95% CI 0.455-1.000), and predictive ranges of 4.6-98.2%, 2.3-94.9%, and 0-12.5% for the test, validation_time, and validation_site samples, respectively. In the training sample, the risk model classified 18.4%, 59.9%, and 21.7% of patients into the high-, average-, and low-risk groups, with corresponding probabilities of 0.985, 0.365, and 0.03 for in-hospital death events. We developed and evaluated a simple risk model to predict the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. This risk scoring system could be helpful for identifying high-risk patients and reducing mortality due to PQ poisoning.

Development and validation of a simple risk model to predict major cancers for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Objective

To recognize risk factors and build up and validate a simple risk model predicting 8‐year cancer events after nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Methods

This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with NAFLD (n = 5561) were randomly divided into groups: training (n = 1254), test (n = 627), evaluation (n = 627), and validation (n = 3053). Risk factors were recognized by statistical method named as a Cox model with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This prediction score was established based on the training group and was further validated based on the testing and evaluation group from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 and another 3053 independent cases from January 1, 2010 to February 13, 2014.

Results

The main outcomes were NAFLD‐related cancer events, including those of the liver, breast, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, prostate and colon, within 8 years after hospitalization for NAFLD diagnosis. Seven risk factors (age (every 5 years),LDL, smoking, BMI, diabetes, OSAS, and aspartate aminotransferase (every 5 units)) were identified as independent indicators of cancer events. This risk model contained a predictive range of 0.4%‐37.7%, 0.3%‐39.6%, and 0.4%‐39.3% in the training, test, evaluation group, respectively, with a range 0.4%‐30.4% for validation groups. In the training group, 12.6%, 76.9%, and 10.5% of patients, which corresponded to the low ‐, moderate ‐, and high‐risk groups, had probabilities of, <0.01, <0.1, and 0.23 for 8‐year events.

Conclusions

Seven risk factors were recognized and a simple risk model were developed and validated to predict the risk of cancer events after NAFLD based on 8 years. This simple risk score system may recognize high‐risk patients and reduce cancer incidence.