Predictive model for risk of gastric cancer using genetic variants from genome-wide association studies and high-evidence meta-analysis

Hotspots and trends of risk factors in gastric cancer: A visualization and bibliometric analysis

BACKGROUND

The lack of specific symptoms of gastric cancer (GC) causes great challenges in its early diagnosis. Thus it is essential to identify the risk factors for early diagnosis and treatment of GC and to improve the survival rates.

AIM

To assist physicians in identifying changes in the output of publications and research hotspots related to risk factors for GC, constructing a list of key risk factors, and providing a reference for early identification of patients at high risk for GC.

METHODS

Research articles on risk factors for GC were searched in the Web of Science core collection, and relevant information was extracted after screening. The literature was analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2019, CiteSpace V, and VOSviewer 1.6.18.

RESULTS

A total of 2514 papers from 72 countries and 2507 research institutions were retrieved. China (n = 1061), National Cancer Center (n = 138), and Shoichiro Tsugane (n = 36) were the most productive country, institution, or author, respectively. The research hotspots in the study of risk factors for GC are summarized in four areas, namely: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection, single nucleotide polymorphism, bio-diagnostic markers, and GC risk prediction models.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we found that H. pylori infection is the most significant risk factor for GC; single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is the most dominant genetic factor for GC; bio-diagnostic markers are the most promising diagnostic modality for GC. GC risk prediction models are the latest current research hotspot. We conclude that the most important risk factors for the development of GC are H. pylori infection, SNP, smoking, diet, and alcohol.

Metabolites, Healthy Lifestyle, and Polygenic Risk Score Associated with Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer: Findings from the UK Biobank Study

Previous metabolomics studies have highlighted the predictive value of metabolites on upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer, while most of them ignored the potential effects of lifestyle and genetic risk on plasma metabolites. This study aimed to evaluate the role of lifestyle and genetic risk in the metabolic mechanism of UGI cancer. Differential metabolites of UGI cancer were identified using partial least-squares discriminant analysis and the Wilcoxon test. Then, we calculated the healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score and polygenic risk score (PRS) and divided them into three groups, respectively. A total of 15 metabolites were identified as UGI-cancer-related differential metabolites. The metabolite model (AUC = 0.699) exhibited superior discrimination ability compared to those of the HLI model (AUC = 0.615) and the PRS model (AUC = 0.593). Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that the metabolite model showed higher discrimination ability for individuals with unhealthy lifestyles compared to that with healthy individuals (AUC = 0.783 vs 0.684). Furthermore, in the genetic risk subgroup analysis, individuals with a genetic predisposition to UGI cancer exhibited the best discriminative performance in the metabolite model (AUC = 0.770). These findings demonstrated the clinical significance of metabolic biomarkers in UGI cancer discrimination, especially in individuals with unhealthy lifestyles and a high genetic risk.

Development and external validation of a quantitative diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions in clinical opportunistic screening: A multicenter real-world study

BACKGROUND

Clinical opportunistic screening is a cost-effective cancer screening modality. This study aimed to establish an easy-to-use diagnostic model serving as a risk stratification tool for identification of individuals with malignant gastric lesions for opportunistic screening.

METHODS

We developed a questionnaire-based diagnostic model using a joint dataset including two clinical cohorts from northern and southern China. The cohorts consisted of 17,360 outpatients who had undergone upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination in endoscopic clinics. The final model was derived based on unconditional logistic regression, and predictors were selected according to the Akaike information criterion. External validation was carried out with 32,614 participants from a community-based randomized controlled trial.

RESULTS

This questionnaire-based diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions had eight predictors, including advanced age, male gender, family history of gastric cancer, low body mass index, unexplained weight loss, consumption of leftover food, consumption of preserved food, and epigastric pain. This model showed high discriminative power in the development set with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.750-0.831). External validation of the model in the general population generated an AUC of 0.696 (95% CI: 0.570-0.822). This model showed an ideal ability for enriching prevalent malignant gastric lesions when applied to various scenarios.

CONCLUSION

This easy-to-use questionnaire-based model for diagnosis of prevalent malignant gastric lesions may serve as an effective prescreening tool in clinical opportunistic screening for gastric cancer.

Functional Annotation and Gene Set Analysis of Gastric Cancer Risk Loci in a Korean Population

PURPOSE

We aimed to identify the associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with gastric cancer (GC) risk by genome-wide association study (GWAS) and to explore the pathway enrichment of implicated genes and gene-sets with expression patterns.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study population was comprised of 1,253 GC cases and 4,827 controls from National Cancer Center and an urban community of the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study and their genotyping was performed. SNPs were annotated, and mapped to genes to prioritize by three mapping approaches by functional mapping and annotation (FUMA). The gene-based analysis and gene-set analysis were conducted with full GWAS summary data using MAGMA. Gene-set pathway enrichment test with those prioritized genes were performed.

RESULTS

In GWAS, rs2303771, a nonsynonymous variant of KLHDC4 gene was top SNP associated significantly with GC (odds ratio, 2.59; p=1.32×10-83). In post-GWAS, 71 genes were prioritized. In gene-based GWAS, seven genes were under significant p < 3.80×10-6 (0.05/13,114); DEFB108B had the lowest p=5.94×10-15, followed by FAM86C1 (p=1.74×10-14), PSCA (p=1.81×10-14), and KLHDC4 (p=5.00×10-10). In gene prioritizing, KLDHC4 was the only gene mapped with all three gene-mapping approaches. In pathway enrichment test with prioritized genes, FOLR2, PSCA, LY6K, LYPD2, and LY6E showed strong enrichment related to cellular component of membrane; a post-translation modification by synthesis of glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored proteins pathway.

CONCLUSION

While 37 SNPs were significantly associated with the risk of GC, genes involved in signaling pathways related to purine metabolism and GPI-anchored protein in cell membrane are pinpointed to be playing important role in GC.

Evaluation of polygenic risk score for risk prediction of gastric cancer

Genetic variations are associated with individual susceptibility to gastric cancer. Recently, polygenic risk score (PRS) models have been established based on genetic variants to predict the risk of gastric cancer. To assess the accuracy of current PRS models in the risk prediction, a systematic review was conducted. A total of eight eligible studies consisted of 544842 participants were included for evaluation of the performance of PRS models. The overall accuracy was moderate with Area under the curve values ranging from 0.5600 to 0.7823. Incorporation of epidemiological factors or Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) status increased the accuracy for risk prediction, while selection of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and number of SNPs appeared to have little impact on the model performance. To further improve the accuracy of PRS models for risk prediction of gastric cancer, we summarized the association between gastric cancer risk and H. pylori genomic variations, cancer associated bacteria members in the gastric microbiome, discussed the potentials for performance improvement of PRS models with these microbial factors. Future studies on comprehensive PRS models established with human SNPs, epidemiological factors and microbial factors are indicated.

Novel classification and risk model based on ferroptosis-related lncRNAs to predict oncologic outcomes for gastric cancer patients

Gastric cancer (GC) is a highly heterogeneous malignancy, characterized by high mortality and poor prognosis. Ferroptosis is a newly defined nonapoptotic programmed cell death mechanism that has been implicated in the development of various pathological conditions. We aimed to identify ferroptosis-related long noncoding RNA (lncRNAs) that might be used to predict GC prognosis. The data were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Two subtypes, C1 and C2, were identified, which had significant variations in prognosis and immune cell infiltrations. Differentially expressed genes between the subtypes were found to be involved in multiple tumor-associated pathways. Subsequently, a training dataset and a testing dataset were created from the TCGA dataset. A predictive model for GC patients based on six ferroptosis-related lncRNAs (including STX18-AS1, MIR99AHG, LINC01197, LINC00968, LINC00865, and LEF1-AS1) was developed. The model could stratify patients into a high- and low-risk group, showing good predictive performance. The testing dataset, entire TCGA dataset, and GSE62254 cohort both confirmed the predictive value of the model. Compared to the clinical parameters (including gender, age, and grade), the risk model was an independent risk factor for GC patients. Moreover, a nomogram (containing our risk score model and clinical parameters) was constructed, which might provide great potential to improve prediction accuracy. Moreover, the single-sample gene set enrichment analysis revealed that the high-risk group was linked to various signaling pathways involved in the regulation of GC progression. Conclusively, a novel classification and risk model based on ferroptosis-related lncRNAs that can predict oncologic outcomes for GC patients has been developed.

Prediction models for gastric cancer risk in the general population: a systematic review

Risk prediction models for gastric cancer (GC) could identify high-risk individuals in the general population. The objective of this study was to systematically review the available evidence about the construction and verification of GC predictive models. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases for articles that developed or validated GC risk prediction models up to November 2021. Data extracted included study characteristics, predictor selection, missing data, and evaluation metrics. Risk of bias (ROB) was assessed using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). We identified a total of 12 original risk prediction models that fulfilled the criteria for analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.73 to 0.93 in derivation sets (n=6), 0.68 to 0.90 in internal validation sets (n=5), 0.71 to 0.92 in external validation sets (n=7). The higher-performing models usually include age, salt preference, Helicobacter pylori, smoking, BMI, family history, pepsinogen and sex. According to PROBAST, at least one domain with a high ROB was present in all studies mainly due to methodologic limitations in the analysis domain. In conclusion, although some risk prediction models including similar predictors have displayed sufficient discriminative abilities, many have a high ROB due to methodological limitations and are not externally validated efficiently. Future prediction models should adherence to well-established standards and guidelines to benefit GC screening.

Predictive model for risk of gastric cancer using genetic variants from genome-wide association studies and high-evidence meta-analysis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified some single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the risk of gastric cancer (GCa). However, currently, there is no published predictive model to assess the risk of GCa. In the present study, risk-associated SNPs derived from GWAS and large meta-analyses were selected to construct a predictive model to assess the risk of GCa. A total of 1115 GCa cases and 1172 controls from the eastern Chinese population were included. Logistic regression models were used to identify SNPs that correlated with the risk of GCa. A predictive model to assess the risk of GCa was established by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) and classification and regression tree (CART) were applied to calculate the effect of high-order gene-environment interactions on risk of the cancer. A total of 42 SNPs were selected for further analysis. The results revealed that ASH1L rs80142782, PKLR rs3762272, PRKAA1 rs13361707, MUC1 rs4072037, PSCA rs2294008, and PLCE1 rs2274223 polymorphisms were associated with a risk of GCa. The area under curve considering both genetic factors and BMI was 3.10% higher than that of BMI alone. MDR analysis revealed that rs13361707 and rs4072307 variants and BMI had interaction effects on susceptibility to GCa, with the highest predictive accuracy (61.23%) and cross-validation consistency (100/100). CART analysis also supported this interaction model that non-overweight status and a six SNP panel could synergistically increase the susceptibility to GCa. The six SNP panel for predicting the risk of GCa may provide new tools for prevention of the cancer based on GWAS and large meta-analyses derived genetic variants.