Incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death in advanced cancer patients: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Factors related to accurate clinicians' prediction of survival: an international multicenter study in East Asia

PURPOSE

Recent guidelines for prognostic evaluation recommend clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) for survival prediction in patients with advanced cancer. However, CPS is often inaccurate and optimistic. Studies on factors associated with overestimation or underestimation of CPS are limited. We aimed to investigate the factors associated with the overestimation and underestimation of CPS in patients with far-advanced cancer.

METHODS

The current study was a secondary analysis of an international multicenter prospective cohort study, which enrolled newly admitted patients with advanced cancer in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We obtained the temporal CPS at enrollment and performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify the factors associated with "underestimation (less than 33% of actual survival)" and "overestimation (more than 33% of actual survival)."

RESULTS

A total of 2571 patients were assessed and admitted in 37 PCUs between January 2017 and September 2018. Older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.02; P < 0.01) and reduced oral intake (aOR 0.68; 95% CI 0.51-0.89; P < 0.01) were identified as significant factors associated with underestimation. Dyspnea (aOR 1.28; 95% CI 1.06-1.54; P = 0.01) and hyperactive delirium (aOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.05-1.72; P = 0.02) were identified as significant factors associated with overestimation.

CONCLUSION

Older age was related to underestimation, while dyspnea and hyperactive delirium were related to overestimation of CPS for patients with weeks of survival. However, reduced oral intake was less likely to lead to underestimation.

Analysis of the composition and influencing factors of hospitalization expenses for 1517 patients with lung malignant tumors in Beijing

This study aimed to analyze the composition of the total hospitalization expenses of patients with lung cancer in Beijing TongRen Hospital from January 2018 to December 2020 before and after the implementation of the "Beijing Medical Consumption Linkage Comprehensive Reform Implementation Plan" (hereinafter referred to as "Reform"). The SPSS 25.0 statistical software was used to perform descriptive statistics on the total hospitalization costs of selected 1517 patients with lung malignant tumors, and single factor and multivariate regression analysis were used to clarify the influencing factors of the patients' total hospitalization costs. From 2018 to 2020, the total hospitalization costs of patients with lung malignant tumors increased year by year (P < .05), and the average length of hospital stay decreased year by year (P < .05). The total hospitalization expenses of patients with lung malignant tumors mainly include material expenses, surgical expenses, inspection expenses, inspection expenses and medicine expenses. After the implementation of the "Reform," the proportion of medicine, inspection, nursing and other expenses in the total hospitalization expenses of patients with lung malignant tumors has been significantly reduced (P < .05), and the proportion of surgical expenses has been significantly increased (P < .05). The results of the univariate analysis showed that gender, age, length of stay in the hospital, surgery, and tumor location were the main factors affecting the total hospitalization expenses of patients (P < .05). The results of multivariate analysis showed that gender (female), age (<40 years old), length of stay (≥15 days), surgery (yes), and tumor location (right lung) are the main factors affecting the total hospitalization cost of patients with malignant tumors (P < .05). Under the premise of ensuring the efficacy of patients, the economic burden of patients is reduced by reducing the cost of materials, shortening the length of hospitalization, strengthening hospital management, and controlling the continuous growth of hospitalization costs.

Prognostic Impact of Malignant Wounds in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer: Secondary Analysis of a Prospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Malignant wounds are lesions caused by metastasis from distant primary cancers or by direct invasion of the cutaneous structures of a primary cancer, and are most common in patients with breast or head and neck cancers. Malignant wounds not only cause physical symptoms, but also affect survival. Recognizing prognosis in terminal-stage cancer patients is necessary for both patients and health care providers. The prognostic impact of malignant wounds in patients with head and neck cancer has been poorly investigated.

METHODS

This is a secondary analysis of the results of a prospective cohort study that investigated the dying process in patients with advanced cancer in 23 palliative care units in Japan. The primary outcome of this study was the prognostic impact of malignant wounds in patients with head and neck cancer. The difference in survival between patients with head and neck cancer who had malignant wounds and those who did not was compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Of 1896 patients admitted to palliative care units, 68 had head and neck cancer, and 29 of these had malignant wounds. Overall survival was significantly shorter in patients with malignant wounds than that in those without (median: 19.0 days vs 32.0 days, P = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

Patients with head and neck cancer who had malignant wounds had worse overall survival than those who did not.

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in older adults with cancer receiving specialist palliative care: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Older adults (≥ 65 years) with cancer receiving palliative care often have other health conditions requiring multiple medications.

AIM

To describe and assess the appropriateness of prescribing for older adults with cancer in the last seven days of life in an inpatient palliative care setting.

METHOD

Retrospective observational study of medical records for 180 patients (60.6% male; median age: 74 years; range 65-94 years) over a two-year period. Medication appropriateness was assessed using: STOPPFrail, OncPal deprescribing guideline and criteria for identifying Potentially Inappropriate Prescribing in older adults with Cancer receiving Palliative Care (PIP-CPC).

RESULTS

94.5% of patients had at least one other health condition (median 3, IQR 2-5). The median number of medications increased from five (IQR 3-7) seven days before death, to 11 medications on the day of death (IQR 9-15). The prevalence of PIP varied depending on the tool used: STOPPFrail (version 1: 17.2%, version 2: 19.4%), OncPal (12.8%), PIP-CPC (30%). However, the retrospective nature of the study limited the applicability of the tools. Increasing number of medications had a statistically significant effect on risk of PIP across all tools (STOPPFrail (version 1: 1.29 (1.13-1.37), version 2: 1.30 (1.16-1.48)); OncPal 1.13 (1.01-1.27); PIP-CPC 0.70 (0.61-0.82)).

CONCLUSION

This study found that the number of medications prescribed to older adults with cancer increased as time to death approached, and the prevalence of PIP varied with the application of different tools. The study also highlights the difficulties of examining PIP in this patient cohort.

Factors associated with good death of patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in Japan

PURPOSE

It is important for palliative care providers to identify what factors are associated with a "good death" for patients with advanced cancer. We aimed to identify factors associated with a "good death" evaluated by the Good Death Scale (GDS) score among inpatients with advanced cancer in palliative care units (PCUs) in Japan.

METHODS

The study is a sub-analysis of a multicenter prospective cohort study conducted in Japan. All variables were recorded on a structured data collecting sheet designed for the study. We classified each patient into better GDS group or worse GDS group, and examined factors associated with better GDS using multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Between January and December 2017, 1896 patients were enrolled across 22 PCUs in Japan. Among them, a total of 1157 patients were evaluated. Five variables were significantly associated with a better GDS score in multivariate analysis: preferred place of death at PCU (odds ratio [OR] 2.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-4.71; p < 0.01), longer survival time (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.00-1.03; p < 0.01), not sudden death (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.27-3.04; p < 0.01), better spiritual well-being in the last 3 days in life (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.42-0.68; p < 0.01), and better communication between patient and family (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.66-0.98; p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified factors associated with a "good death" using GDS among advanced cancer patients in Japanese PCUs. Recognition of factors associated with GDS could help to improve the quality of end-of-life care.

Exploring Risk Factors of Unexpected Death, Using Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) Measures, among Terminal Patients Receiving Palliative Care in Taiwan

Palliative care has the ability to relieve both physical discomfort and psychological distress in terminally ill patients. However, unexpected death may still occur in palliative care settings. This study aimed to utilize Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration (PCOC) data to better determine any associated factors which may surround unexpected death in palliative care settings. Data were extracted from the PCOC database by the palliative care team within Taichung Veterans General Hospital (TCVGH). Data of deceased patients were extracted during the period from January 2021 to December 2021 from multiple palliative care settings. The deaths of patients whose last recorded palliative phase was 1-3 were defined as unexpected. A total of 280 deceased patients were included, with mean age at death being 67.73, 61% being male, and 83.2% cancer patients. We discovered that shortness of breath, as assessed by the Symptom Assessment Scale (SAS), decreased risk of unexpected death (OR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84-0.98), while impending death discharge (OR: 3.93, 95% CI: 1.20-12.94) and a higher Australia-modified Karnofsky performance status (AKPS) score (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10-1.21) were associated with unexpected death. Thus, medical staff must inform the family of patients early on regarding any risk factors surrounding unexpected death to help everyone involved be prepared in advance.

Are Prognostic Scores Better Than Clinician Judgment? A Prospective Study Using Three Models

CONTEXT

Several prognostic models such as the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) have been developed to complement clinician's prediction of survival (CPS). However, few studies with large scales have been conducted to show which prognostic tool had better performance than CPS in patients with weeks of survival.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the PPS, PPI, PaP, and CPS in inpatients admitted to palliative care units (PCUs).

METHODS

This study was part of a multi-center prospective observational study involving patients admitted to PCUs in Japan. We computed their prognostic performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and calibration plots for seven, 14-, 30- and 60-day survival.

RESULTS

We included 1896 patients with a median overall survival of 19 days. The AUROC was 73% to 84% for 60-day and 30-day survival, 75% to 84% for 14-day survival, and 80% to 87% for seven-day survival. The calibration plot demonstrated satisfactory agreement between the observational and predictive probability for the four indices in all timeframes. Therefore, all four prognostic indices showed good performance. CPS and PaP consistently had significantly better performance than the PPS and PPI from one-week to two-month timeframes.

CONCLUSION

The PPS, PPI, PaP, and CPS had relatively good performance in patients admitted to PCUs with weeks of survival. CPS and PaP had significantly better performance than the PPS and PPI. CPS may be sufficient for experienced clinicians while PPS may help to improve prognostic confidence for inexperienced clinicians.

Prognostication of the last days of life: Review article

Accurate prediction of impending death (i.e., last few days of life) is essential for terminally-ill cancer patients and their families. International guidelines state that clinicians should identify patients with impending death, communicate the prognosis with patients and families, help them with their end-of-life decision-making, and provide sufficient symptom palliation. Over the past decade, several national and international studies have been conducted that systematically investigated signs and symptoms of impending death as well as how to communicate such a prognosis effectively with patients and families. In this article, we summarize the current evidence on prognostication and communication regarding the last days of life of patients with cancer, and future directions of clinical research.

Incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death in advanced cancer patients: A multicenter prospective cohort study

Purpose

A sudden unexpected death has significant negative impacts on patients, family caregivers, and medical staff in hospice/palliative care. This study aimed to clarify the incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death according to four definitions in advanced cancer patients.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study in 23 inpatient hospices/palliative care units in Japan. Advanced cancer patients aged ≥18 years who were admitted to inpatient hospices/palliative care units were included. The incidence and associated factors of sudden unexpected death were evaluated in all enrolled patients according to four definitions: (a) rapid decline death, defined as a sudden death preceded by functional decline over 1–2 days; (b) surprise death, defined if the primary responsible palliative care physician answered “yes” to the question, “Were you surprised by the timing of the death?”; (c) unexpected death, defined as a death that occurred earlier than the physicians had anticipated; and (d) performance status (PS)‐defined sudden death, defined as a death that occurred within 1 week of functional status assessment with an Australia‐modified Karnofsky PS ≥50.

Results

Among 1896 patients, the incidence of rapid decline death was the highest (30‐day cumulative incidence: 16.8%, 95% CI: 14.8–19.0%), followed by surprise death (9.6%, 8.1–11.4%), unexpected death (9.0%, 7.5–10.8%), and PS‐defined sudden death (6.4%, 5.2–8.0%). Male sex, liver metastasis, dyspnea, malignant skin lesion, and fluid retention were significantly associated with the occurrence of sudden unexpected death.

Conclusion

Sudden unexpected death is not uncommon even in inpatient hospices/palliative care units, with range of 6.4–16.8% according to the different definitions.