The prognostic performance of the log odds of positive lymph nodes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population study of the US SEER database and a Chinese single-institution cohort

Prognostic prediction and comparison of three staging programs for patients with advanced (T2-T4) esophageal squamous carcinoma after radical resection

Purpose

Lymph node-based staging protocols are frequently employed to evaluate the prognosis of esophageal cancer, yet their accuracy remains contentious. The present study was conducted to assess the prognostic significance of three lymph node staging systems, namely N stage, lymph node rate (LNR), and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), in patients diagnosed with advanced (T2-T4) esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

This cohort comprised 319 eligible patients, with an additional 409 individuals retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, forming the validation cohort. Differences in overall survival (OS) of patients between groups were assessed using the log-rank test. Prognostic independent risk variables were identified, and lymph nodes (LN) prognostic models were built using multivariate Cox regression analysis. Besides, the predictive accuracy of each model was evaluated utilizing the (-2) log-likelihood ratio (-2LLR), the likelihood ratio χ2 score (LRχ2), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Harrell's concordance index (C-index). To further evaluate the potential superiority of the model, a nomogram was constructed for comparison with the conventional Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging approach.

Results

Independent prognostic factors for advanced ESCC include the N stage, LNR, and LODDS. Herein, LODDS presented higher values for C-index and LRχ2, and lower values for AIC and -2LLR in OS compared to the others. Consequently, a nomogram was constructed based on LODDS. Calibration curves exhibited strong agreement, and assessment through C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated promising clinical applicability.

Conclusion

LODDS emerges as a promising future prognostic indicator. After surgery, the proposed model holds the potential to provide valuable treatment recommendations for patients with advanced ESCC.

The Prognostic Significance of Lymph Node Ratio for Esophageal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

This meta-analysis aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of positive lymph node ratio (LNR) in patients with esophageal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The meta-analysis following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We conducted a systematic search of relevant literature published until April 2022 in PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library. The primary and secondary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS), with corresponding hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The included studies were subgrouped based on age, study area, adjuvant therapy, sensitivity analysis, and assessment of publication bias. We analyzed and discussed the results.

RESULTS

We included 21 studies with 29 cohorts and 11,849 patients. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale scores of the included studies were no less than six, indicating high research quality. The combined results of HR and 95% CI showed that patients with esophageal cancer with a lower LNR had better OS (HR, 2.58; 95% CI, 2.15-3.11; P < 0.001) and DFS (HR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.85-5.10; P < 0.001). The subgroup analysis suggested that geographic region, age, and adjuvant therapy affected OS. When any cohort was excluded, no significant changes were observed in the pooled HR of the OS group, indicating reliable and robust results. Egger's and Begg's tests showed no potential publication bias in the studies that used OS as an outcome measurement index, indicating reliable results. Sensitivity analyses and assessments of publication bias (<10) were not performed because of an insufficient number of DFS studies.

CONCLUSION

Patients with a lower positive LNR had a higher survival rate, suggesting that positive LNR may be a promising predictor of EC prognosis in esophageal cancer. After radical resection of esophageal cancer, the ratio of the number of dissected lymph nodes to the number of positive lymph nodes in patients with esophageal cancer should be considered to accurately evaluate the prognosis.

High expression of PPFIA1 in human esophageal squamous cell carcinoma correlates with tumor metastasis and poor prognosis

BACKGROUND

PTPRF interacting protein alpha 1 (PPFIA1) is reportedly related to the occurrence and progression of several kinds of malignancies. However, its role in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is unclear. This current study investigated the prognostic significance and biological functions of PPFIA1 in ESCC.

METHODS

Oncomine, Gene Expression Profiling Interactive Analysis (GEPIA), and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) were used to investigate PPFIA1 expression in esophageal cancer. The relationship between PPFIA1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics and patient survival was evaluated in GSE53625 dataset, and verified in the cDNA array based on qRT-PCR and tissue microarray (TMA) dataset based on immunohistochemistry. The impact of PPFIA1 on the migration and invasion of cancer cells were investigated by wound-healing and transwell assays, respectively.

RESULTS

The expression of PPFIA1 was obviously increased in ESCC tissues versus adjacent esophageal tissues according to online database analyses (all P < 0.05). High PPFIA1 expression was closely related to several clinicopathological characteristics, including tumor location, histological grade, tumor invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage. High PPFIA1 expression was related to worse outcomes and was identified as an independent prognostic factor of overall survival in ESCC patients (GSE53625 dataset, P = 0.019; cDNA array dataset, P < 0.001; TMA dataset, P = 0.039). Downregulation of PPFIA1 expression can significantly reduce the migration and invasion ability of ESCC cells.

CONCLUSION

PPFIA1 is related to the migration and invasion of ESCC cells, and can be used as a potential biomarker to evaluate the prognosis of ESCC patients.

Comparing the predictive performance of different lymph node staging systems for postoperative overall survival in patients with ampullary carcinoma

Aim

This study was to analyze and compare the predictive performance of the 7th and the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) N staging system, lymph nodes ratio (LNR) and log odds of positive lymph node (LODDS) for the survival of patients with ampullary carcinomas (ACs).

Method

This retrospective cohort study included patients with primary ACs after surgery from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 2004-2015. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used. The study population was divided into a training set and a testing set in a ratio of 7-3. The C-index and area under the curve (AUC) were used to compare the predictive performance of the four staging on overall survival (OS) in the training set and the testing set.

Results

A total of 7,480 patients with primary ACs (1,178 survived and 1,128 dead) were in this study. The average follow-up time was 41.1 months. N1 stage and N2 stage of the 8th edition AJCC N staging system, LNR staging (0-0.3), LNR (>0.3), LODDS (-2.4 to -0.8) and LODDS (>-0.8) were associated with OS in AC patients after adjusting for age, race, pT stage, tumor size, grade, radiation, and insurance. The C-index of the 7th AJCC N staging was significantly lower than the C-index of the 8th AJCC N staging in the training set [0.608 vs. 0.629, P < 0.001] and testing set [0.635 vs. 0.658, P < 0.001]. The C-index of the LODDS staging was significantly higher than the C-index of the 8th AJCC N staging in the training set [0.641 vs. 0.629, P = 0.034] and testing set [0.671 vs. 0.658, P = 0.034]. LODDS staging may be a potential predictor of OS at 6 months [AUC = 0.687], 12 months (AUC = 0.692), and 48 months (AUC = 0.709), and LNR staging (AUC = 0.655) may be a potential predictor of OS at 24 months in AC patients. The predictive ability of LNR staging and LODDS staging were also found in different subgroups.

Conclusion

The LNR and LODDS staging systems' predictive performance for OS of AC patients were superior to the 8th edition AJCC N staging system, especially in patients ages ≥65 or with higher tumor grade (grade II and III). The LNR staging and the LODDS staging were potential predictors for 24-month OS, and 6, 12, 24 and 48-month OS, respectively.

Development and validation of nodal staging score in pN0 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A population study from the SEER database and a single-institution cohort

BACKGROUND

Patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) with lymph node metastasis may be misclassified as pN0 due to an insufficient number of lymph nodes examined (LNE). The purpose of this study was to confirm that patients with ESCC are indeed pN0 and to propose an adequate number for the correct nodal stage using the nodal staging score (NSS) developed by the beta-binomial model.

METHODS

A total of 1249 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2000 and 2017, and 1404 patients diagnosed with ESCC in our database between 2005 and 2018 were included. The NSS was developed to assess the probability of pN0 status based on both databases. The effectiveness of NSS was verified using survival analysis, including Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models.

RESULTS

Many patients were misclassified as pN0 based on our algorithm due to insufficient LNE. As the number of LNE increased, false-negative findings dropped; accordingly, the NSS increased. In addition, NSS was an independent prognostic indicator for pN0 in patients with ESCC in the SEER database (hazard ratio [HR] 0.182, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.046-0.730, p = 0.016) and our database (HR 0.215, 95% CI 0.055-0.842, p = 0.027). A certain number of nodes must be examined to achieve 90% of the NSS.

CONCLUSIONS

NSS could determine the probability of true pN0 status for patients, and it was sufficient in predicting survival and obtaining adequate numbers for lymphadenectomy.

Comparison of clinicopathological features and prognostic significance between synchronous multiple primary and solitary esophageal squamous cell carcinomas

Background

Synchronous multiple primary esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (S-MPESCC) refers to more than one primary esophageal carcinoma detected in a solitary patient at the time of initial presentation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinicopathological features, appropriate surgical approaches and long-term survival in patients with S-MPESCC by comparing with those with solitary esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC).

Methods

In total, 567 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma surgically resected in Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital from January 2012 to December 2018 were screened for retrospective analysis (50 in the S-MPESCC group and 516 in the SESCC group).

Results

No significant difference was observed in terms of other characteristics except total alcohol consumption (P = 0.029). S-MPESCC had higher lymph node rate than SESCC (62.0% and 44.1%, respectively; P = 0.015) especially in upper mediastinal (32.0% and 18.6%, respectively; P = 0.023) and abdominal (38.0% and 22.8%, respectively; P = 0.017) regions. The survival was not different between the two groups, and the 5-year survival rates of S-MPESCC and SESCC were 46.2% and 50.8%, respectively (P = 0.507). But for patients with pT3-4 cancers, the survival in S-MPESCC was worse than that in SESCC (P = 0.033). In the multivariate analysis, pT stage of primary cancer was an important independent predictor of prognosis in patients with S-MPESCC (hazard ratio [HR], 3.968; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.031 to 15.268; P = 0.045).

Conclusions

S-MPESCC was significantly different from SESCC in terms of clinicopathological characteristics include alcohol intake and pattern of lymphatic metastasis. Furthermore, S-MPESCC showed worse long-term survival than SESCC with increasing depth of primary cancer infiltration.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10283-2.

Log odds of positive lymph nodes is a robust predictor of survival and benefits from postoperative radiotherapy in stage IIIA‐N2 resected non‐small cell lung cancer

Background

The significance of postoperative adjuvant radiotherapy (PORT) on the survival of resected IIIA‐N2 non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) remains controversial. Here, we aimed to determine the predictive value of the three nodal classifications which might aid in PORT decision‐making.

Methods

A total of 4797 patients with stage IIIA‐N2 resected NSCLC were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and were grouped by whether PORT was administered. Survival analysis was used to identify the patient groups who can benefit from PORT. Multivariate analysis was performed to confirm the independent risk factors for lung cancer‐specific survival (LCSS) and overall survival (OS). A validation cohort of 1184 patients from three medical centers in China were also included.

Results

PORT was not associated with better LCSS and OS in the entire cohort after propensity score matching (PSM). However, in the subgroups of positive lymph nodes 4 (PLN4), lymph node ratio 4 (LNR4), and log odds of positive lymph nodes 4 (LODDS4), PORT exhibited its role in improving LCSS (p < 0.05). Although the three nodal classifications were all identified as independent predictors of LCSS and OS, LODDS classification had the best discriminatory ability and prognostic accuracy for stage IIIA‐N2 patients. Similar results were also obtained in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

The LODDS classification not only exhibited the best prognostic performance in predicting LCSS and OS in stage IIIA‐N2 disease, but also could help tailor individualized PORT.

Development and validation of a novel prognostic model for patients with surgically resected esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background and objectives

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is the most common pathological type of esophageal malignancy in most regions of the world. The study aimed to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for ESCC following surgical resection.

Patients and methods

A total of 533 ESCC patients who underwent surgical resection from Suining Central Hospital were enrolled in the study. Cox proportional hazards regression and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression were performed to identify significant prognostic factors. A prognostic model was constructed, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, concordance index (C-index), and decision cure analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the prognostic model. Subsequently, we built a nomogram for overall survival (OS) incorporating the prognostic factors, and a calibration plot was employed to assess the consistency between the predicted survival and the observed survival. Based on the model risk score, we split the patients into two subgroups, low-risk and high-risk, and we analyzed the survival time of these two groups using Kaplan–Meier (K-M) survival plots.

Results

Five independent prognosis factors were identified as independent risk factors for OS in ESCC patients who underwent surgical resection. The C-index, ROC curve, and DCA showed that the prognostic model had good predictive accuracy and discriminatory power in the training cohort and validation cohort than other clinical features. A nomogram consisting of prognosis factors showed some superior net benefit. K-M survival plots showed significant differences in OS between the low-risk and high-risk groups. Similar results were observed in the subgroup analysis based on age, grade, and stage. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed that both risk score and risk group are independent prognostic factors in the patient cohort.

Conclusions

This study put forward a novel prognostic model based on clinical features; biopsy data and blood biomarkers may represent a promising tool for estimating OS in ESCC patients.