EuroSCORE is a good global predictor of long-term outcomes in high-risk but not in low-risk patients after unprotected left main angioplasty

A "no-option" left main PCI registry: outcomes and predictors of in hospital mortality-utility of the logistic EuroSCORE

BACKGROUND

Although high-risk left main PCI populations have been previously described, there is little data describing outcomes and the role of the logistic EuroSCORE in surgical turndown cohorts or patients in extremis due to acute infarction or cardiogenic shock from left main ischemia.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with unprotected LM PCI who were surgical turndowns or in extremis were included in this retrospective cohort from 2004 to 2009 at two tertiary centers. Predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified utilizing routine and stepwise logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were a total of 56 patients with mean age of 69 (±13). There were 23 (41%) patients with cardiogenic shock. The mean logistic EuroSCORE was 23.5% ± 21%. In-hospital death occurred in 12 (21%) patients, largely restricted to the shock subgroup (11/12). Univariate predictors of mortality included peak CK levels (P = 0.01), transfusion (P = 0.01), cardiogenic shock (P < 0.002), male gender (P = 0.027), and logistic EuroSCORE (P = 0.01). Stepwise logistic regression yielded logistic EuroSCORE (P = 0.04, OR: 1.25 (95% CI: 1.01-1.56) for every 5% increase) and peak CK level (P = 0.001, OR: 1.23 (95% CI: 1.09-1.40) for every 500 unit increase) as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The AUC ROC for logistic EuroSCORE was 0.73; and for logistic EuroSCORE plus peak CK level was 0.89.

CONCLUSION

PCI appears to be a reasonable option in the high risk "no option" LM population, with the logistic EuroSCORE and peak CK levels being independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Specifically, the logistic EuroSCORE and peak CK level combined discriminate in-hospital mortality with a high degree of certainty.

Combination of angiographic and clinical characteristics for the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients undergoing unprotected left main coronary artery stenting

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification is essential for the clinical decision-making process in patients undergoing revascularization of the unprotected left main coronary artery (ULMCA), since the optimal revascularization strategy still remains subject of ongoing debate.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prognostic value of angiographic versus clinical characteristics for the prediction of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and to develop a combined risk model.

METHODS

In 115 patients, who were followed up for MACE after ULMCA stenting, SYNTAX score and EuroSCORE have been calculated for a combined risk model.

RESULTS

Whereas the SYNTAX score was not able to predict MACE at 1 year (32.8 ± 11.7 vs. 29.1 ± 12.2, P = 0.13), the logistic EuroSCORE was significantly increased in these patients suffering a MACE at 1 year [11.9 (4.4/22.6) vs. 4.8 (2.3/14.6)%, P = 0.007]. With ROC curve validated cut-off values, the combination of EuroSCORE (>7.5%) and SYNTAX score (>25) provided incremental predictive value for risk stratification of ULMCA patients (AUC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.79, P < 0.001). This combined risk model was associated with the rate of cardiac mortality (P = 0.04), non-fatal myocardial infarction (P = 0.005), and target lesion revascularization (P = 0.04) and was superior to the SYNTAX score alone (P = 0.03). High risk patients had a 7.1-fold higher risk for MACE (HR 7.1. 95% CI 2.1-24.1, P = 0.002) after 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

For adequate risk assessment in ULMCA patients, consideration of both comorbidities and coronary anatomic complexity, is essential. A combination of angiographic and clinical risk scores improves the prognostic value for the prediction of 1-year MACE risk and is superior to stand-alone scores.

Surgical candidacy and selection biases in nonemergent left main stenting: implications for observational studies

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to characterize reasons for surgical ineligibility in patients undergoing nonemergent unprotected left main (ULM) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and to assess the potential for these reasons to confound comparative effectiveness studies of coronary revascularization.

BACKGROUND

Although both PCI and coronary artery bypass graft surgery are treatments for ULM disease, some patients are not eligible for both treatments, which may result in treatment selection biases.

METHODS

In 101 consecutive patients undergoing nonemergent ULM PCI, mixed methods were used to determine the prevalence of treatment selection dictated by surgical ineligibility and to identify the reasons cited for avoiding coronary artery bypass graft surgery. We then determined whether these reasons were captured by the ACC-NCDR (American College of Cardiology-National Cardiovascular Data Registry) Cath-PCI dataset to assess the ability of this registry to account for biases in treatment selection. Finally, the association of surgical eligibility with long-term outcomes after ULM PCI was assessed.

RESULTS

Treatment selection was dictated by surgical ineligibility in over half the ULM PCI cohort with the majority having reasons for ineligibility not captured by the ACC-NCDR. Surgical ineligibility was a significant predictor of mortality after adjustment for Society of Thoracic Surgeons (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2 to 25), EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) (HR: 5.9, 95% CI: 1.3 to 27), or NCDR mortality scores (HR: 6.2, 95% CI: 1.4 to 27).

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical ineligibility dictating treatment selection is common in patients undergoing nonemergent ULM PCI, occurs on the basis of risk factors not captured by the ACC-NCDR, and is independently associated with worse long-term outcomes after adjusting for standard risk scores.