Epidemiology of adult congenital heart disease among the general population in Kuwait

A Risk Prediction Model of Serious Adverse Events After Cardiac Catheterization for Chinese Adults Patients with Moderate and Severe Congenital Heart Disease

Background

There are almost 2 million adult patients with congenital heart disease in China, and the number of moderate and severe patients is increasing. However, few studies have investigated the risk of serious adverse events (SAE) after catheterization among them. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for SAE related to cardiac catheterization and to provide the risk scoring model for predicting SAE.

Methods

A total of 690 patients with moderate and severe adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) who underwent cardiac catheterization in Wuhan Asian Heart Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2022 were retrospectively collected and subsequently divided into a modeling group and a verification group. A univariate analysis was performed on the identified SAE risk factors, and then significant factors were included in the multivariate logistic regression model to screen for independent predictors of SAE. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the model, respectively.

Results

A SAE occurred in 69 (10.0%) of the 690 catheterization procedures meeting inclusion criteria. The established SAE risk calculation formula was logit(p) = -6.134 + 0.992 × pulmonary artery hypertension (yes) + 1.459 × disease severity (severe) + 2.324 × procedure type (diagnostic and interventional) + 1.436 × cTnI ( ≥ 0.028 μ g/L) + 1.537 × NT-proBNP ( ≥ 126.65 pg/mL). The total score of the final risk score model based on the effect size of each predictor was 0 to 7, involving pulmonary artery hypertension (1 point), disease severity (1 point), procedure type (2 points), cTnI (1 point) and NT-proBNP (2 points), and the score greater than 3 means high risk. The C-statistic of the area under the ROC curve was 0.840 and 0.911 for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. According to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the p values in the modeling group and the verification group were 0.064 and 0.868, respectively.

Conclusions

The risk prediction model developed in this study has high discrimination and calibration, which can provide reference for clinical prediction and evaluation of SAE risk after cardiac catheterization in patients with moderate and severe ACHD.

Epidemiology of adult congenital heart disease among the general population in Kuwait

Background

Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) is a highly underrepresented entity in medical literature, especially in the middle‐eastern region.

Hypothesis

This study is the first to assess the prevalence of adult congenital heart disease among the population of Kuwait.

Methods

After a retrospective register review of patients in Kuwait being followed up in the chest diseases hospital was conducted, patients who fit the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the study. Using the American College of Cardiology Task Force 1 of the 32nd Bethesda conference classification of the severity of ACHD, the patients were classified into those with simple, moderate, and complex congenital heart diseases. The age and gender of the patients, as well as the type repair performed, and the residual cardiac findings were recorded to assess the association between the complexity and residuals. Associations were assessed using STATA 15.

Results

A total of 611 patients were evaluated over a period of 18 months. The youngest participant was 20 years of age, and the oldest participant was 88 years old. Male participants with moderate congenital heart disease class were more common in our study population. Patients with complex congenital heart disease have more residual cardiac lesion than the moderate or simple groups. Almost (70%) of patients with complex cardiac anomalies have undergone either partial or complete repair. The most prevalent cardiac defect was atrial septal defect (21.5%). Tetralogy of Fallot was the most prevalent defect in the moderate group, representing (13%) of the group. The most prevalent anomaly in the complex group was double outlet right ventricle (DORV) representing (15.38%).

Conclusion

Adult Congenital heart disease is a growing entity of heart disease due to advanced repair techniques. This population requires registries to document cases and assign specialists for the management and care of this special group of patients.

Highlights

First database of adult congenital heart disease in Kuwait.

The most prevalent heart defect was ASD in Kuwait.

TOF was the most prevalent defect in the moderate group; and DORV was the most prevalent in the complex group.

Patients with moderate ACHD tended to have a more complete repair than those in the complex group.