Why are pretreatment prostate-specific antigen levels and biochemical recurrence poor predictors of prostate cancer survival?

Prognostic Value of Biochemical Recurrence Following Treatment with Curative Intent for Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review

CONTEXT

In men with prostate cancer (PCa) treated with curative intent, controversy exists regarding the impact of biochemical recurrence (BCR) on oncological outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review of the existing literature on BCR after treatment with curative intent for nonmetastatic PCa. Objective 1 is to investigate whether oncological outcomes differ between patients with or without BCR. Objective 2 is to study which clinical factors and tumor features in patients with BCR have an independent prognostic impact on oncological outcomes.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Medline, Medline In-Process, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched. For objective 1, prospective and retrospective studies comparing survival outcomes of patients with or without BCR following radical prostatectomy (RP) or radical radiotherapy (RT) were included. For objective 2, all studies with at least 100 participants and reporting on prognostic patient and tumor characteristics in patients with BCR were included. Risk-of-bias and confounding assessments were performed according to the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Both a narrative synthesis and a meta-analysis were undertaken.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

Overall, 77 studies were included for analysis, of which 14 addressed objective 1, recruiting 20 406 patients. Objective 2 was addressed by 71 studies with 29 057, 11 301, and 4272 patients undergoing RP, RT, and a mixed population (mix of patients undergoing RP or RT as primary treatment), respectively. There was a low risk of bias for study participation, confounders, and statistical analysis. For most studies, attrition bias, and prognostic and outcome measurements were not clearly reported. BCR was associated with worse survival rates, mainly in patients with short prostate-specific antigen doubling time (PSA-DT) and a high final Gleason score after RP, or a short interval to biochemical failure (IBF) after RT and a high biopsy Gleason score.

CONCLUSIONS

BCR has an impact on survival, but this effect appears to be limited to a subgroup of patients with specific clinical risk factors. Short PSA-DT and a high final Gleason score after RP, and a short IBF after RT and a high biopsy Gleason score are the main factors that have a negative impact on survival. These factors may form the basis of new BCR risk stratification (European Association of Urology BCR Risk Groups), which needs to be validated formally.

PATIENT SUMMARY

This review looks at the risk of death in men who shows rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in the blood test performed after curative surgery or radiotherapy. For many men, rising PSA does not mean that they are at a high risk of death from prostate cancer in the longer term. Men with PSA that rises shortly after they were treated with radiotherapy or rapidly rising PSA after surgery and a high tumor grade for both treatment modalities are at the highest risk of death. These factors may form the basis of new risk stratification (European Association of Urology biochemical recurrence Risk Groups), which needs to be validated formally.

Identification of Site-specific Recurrence Following Primary Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer Using C-11 Choline Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography: A Nomogram for Predicting Extrapelvic Disease

BACKGROUND

Management of recurrent prostate cancer (CaP) after radiotherapy (RT) is dependent on accurate localization of the site of recurrent disease.

OBJECTIVE

To describe the anatomic patterns and clinical features associated with CaP recurrence following RT identified on advanced imaging.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective review of 184 patients with a rising prostate-specific antigen (PSA) after RT for CaP.

INTERVENTION

C-11 choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography (CholPET).

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Recurrence patterns were classified as pelvic soft tissue only (as a surrogate for potentially salvageable disease) versus any extrapelvic disease, and clinical features were compared between patterns. Multivariable logistic regression was used to generate a predictive nomogram for extrapelvic recurrence. Discrimination was assessed with a c-index.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Recurrence site was identified in 161 (87%) patients, with 95 (59%) sites histologically confirmed. Factors associated with the detection of recurrence included the difference between PSA nadir and PSA at CholPET (odds ratio: 1.30, p<0.01) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network high-risk classification (odds ratio: 10.83, p=0.03). One hundred (54.3%) patients recurred in the pelvic soft tissue only, while 61 (33%) had extrapelvic recurrence. Of 21 patients who underwent CholPET prior to meeting the Phoenix criteria of biochemical failure, 15 (71%) had recurrence identified on CholPET with 11 localized to the pelvis. On multivariable analysis, the difference between PSA nadir and PSA at CholPET, time from RT, and National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group were predictive of recurrence outside of the pelvis, and a nomogram was generated with a c-index of 0.79.

CONCLUSIONS

CholPET identified the site of recurrence in 87% of patients with a rising PSA after RT; most commonly within the pelvis in potentially salvageable locations. A predictive nomogram was generated, and pending external validation, this may aid in assessing the risk of disease beyond the pelvis. These findings underscore the importance of advanced imaging when considering management strategies for patients with a rising PSA following primary RT.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We identified anatomic patterns of recurrence in patients with a rising prostate-specific antigen after radiotherapy using C-11 choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography. Most recurrences were localized to the pelvis and we were able to generate a tool to aid in disease localization prior to evaluation with advanced imaging.

Oligometastatic bone disease in prostate cancer patients treated on the TROG 03.04 RADAR trial

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear whether eradication of oligometastases by stereotactic body radiation therapy or other means will result in cure or prolongation of survival in some cases, or merely provide palliation. We address this issue with prospectively collected progression and treatment data from the TROG 03.04 RADAR randomised controlled trial for men with locally advanced prostate cancer (PC).

METHODS

Three Fine and Gray competing risk survival models with time-dependent covariates were used to determine whether metastatic progression status at first diagnosis of bony metastases, i.e. number of bony sites involved and presence of prior or simultaneous other sites of progression, impacts on prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) when adjusted for baseline prognostic factors and allocated primary treatment.

RESULTS

Between 2003 and 2014, 176 of the 1071 subjects developed bone metastases, 152 developed other sites of progression and 91 died of PC. All subjects received secondary treatment using androgen suppression but none received extirpative treatments. The three models found evidence: 1 - of a clear prognostic gradient according to number of bony metastatic sites; 2 - that other sites of progression contributed to PCSM to a lesser extent than bone progression; and 3 - that further bony metastatic progression in men with up to 3 bony metastases had a major impact on PCSM.

CONCLUSION

Randomised trials are essential to determine the value of extirpative treatment for oligometastatic bony metastases due to PC.

Prognostic Factors for Prostate Cancer Endpoints Following Biochemical Failure: A Review of the Literature

PURPOSE

In the setting of biochemical failure (BCF) following primary treatment for prostate cancer, additional discrimination between clinically significant and non-clinically significant biochemical recurrence is critical in defining robust surrogate endpoints for prostate cancer and guiding salvage management decisions. We reviewed the literature to determine which prognostic factors are most significant for predicting prostate cancer-specific survival (PCSS), metastases-free survival (MFS), and/or overall survival (OS) after BCF.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A search of PubMed from 1980 to 2013 yielded 999 studies that examined prognostic factors predictive for PCSS, MFS, and/or OS in prostate cancer patients with BCF following primary treatment. Eligibility criteria for inclusion were: 1) examined a prostate cancer population in the setting of BCF without overt clinical relapse following primary treatment with radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy; 2) based analyses on patient parameters obtained prior to the initiation of salvage therapies; and 3) determined clinical prognostic factors that were significant prognostic measures for at least one of three clinically relevant endpoints: OS, PCS, or MFS.

RESULTS

Nineteen eligible studies reported on 8,040 patients that experienced BCF from 1981-2013. The initial primary therapy was variable: radical prostatectomy alone (n=8), radiotherapy alone (n=4), radiotherapy/radical prostatectomy ± adjuvant therapy (n=5), and multiple treatment arms (n=2). There was also heterogeneity in which outcomes were assessed: PCSS (n=14), MFS (n=7), and OS (n=5). The prognostic factors most commonly found to be significant on multivariate analyses were PSA doubling time (PSADT), time to biochemical failure (TTBF), pathological Gleason score (pGS), and age.  

CONCLUSIONS

Risk stratification in prostate cancer post-BCF is challenging because of limited predictive modeling that can determine which patients will optimally benefit from salvage therapy. Our systematic literature review has identified PSADT, TTBF, pGS, and age as the leading prognostic factors for the prediction of PCSS, MFS, and OS after BCF. We plan to leverage the Canadian ProCaRS database to perform predictive modeling using the putative findings in the present study in order to propose potential evidence-based surrogate endpoints for prostate cancer in the setting of BCF.

Does prostate-specific antigen nadir predict longer-term outcomes of prostate cancer after neoadjuvant and adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy in conjunction with brachytherapy?

PURPOSE

To evaluate whether nadir prostate-specific antigen (nPSA), time to nPSA (TnPSA), and nPSA 3-years post-treatment are prognostic for prostate cancer (PC) in patients treated with temporary brachytherapy plus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and hormonal manipulation.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We retrospectively analyzed our database of 253 patients with Stage T1-T3 N0M0 PC who underwent brachytherapy with temporary brachytherapy plus EBRT. All patients received neoadjuvant androgen deprivation for a median of 6 months. Treatment consisted of three pulses of pseudo pulsed-dose-rate brachytherapy to a median dose of 18Gy with 50.4Gy in 28 fractions of EBRT. Treatment took place between December 1999 and March 2006.

RESULTS

At a median of 6-years followup, nPSA value was a predictor of biochemical control. Rising nPSA categories of <0.01, 0.01-<0.05, 0.05-≤0.1, 0.1-≤ 1.0, or >1.0 ng/mL correlated with a deteriorating 5-year biochemical control (nBED) by the Phoenix definition of 100%, 90.0%, 82.5%, 64.3%, and 10%, respectively. A highly statistically significant relationship between nPSA value and subsequent clinical failure is also demonstrated. The relationship between TnPSA and nBED was strongly significant (p<0.0001), with a significantly longer nPSA for patients who had Phoenix nBED. A PSA of <1.5 ng/mL achieved 3-year post radiation therapy was prognostic for biochemical and clinical disease control (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The nPSA, TnPSA, and reaching a PSA cutoff level of <1.5 ng/mL at 3 years post-treatment can provide useful prognostic information on long-term biochemical and clinical control of PC in patients treated with pseudo PDR, EBRT, and hormone manipulation.

Short-term androgen suppression and radiotherapy versus intermediate-term androgen suppression and radiotherapy, with or without zoledronic acid, in men with locally advanced prostate cancer (TROG 03.04 RADAR): an open-label, randomised, phase 3 factorial trial

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether 18 months of androgen suppression plus radiotherapy, with or without 18 months of zoledronic acid, is more effective than 6 months of neoadjuvant androgen suppression plus radiotherapy with or without zoledronic acid.

METHODS

We did an open-label, randomised, 2 × 2 factorial trial in men with locally advanced prostate cancer (either T2a N0 M0 prostatic adenocarcinomas with prostate-specific antigen [PSA] ≥10 μg/L and a Gleason score of ≥7, or T2b-4 N0 M0 tumours regardless of PSA and Gleason score). We randomly allocated patients by computer-generated minimisation--stratified by centre, baseline PSA, tumour stage, Gleason score, and use of a brachytherapy boost--to one of four groups in a 1:1:1:1 ratio. Patients in the control group were treated with neoadjuvant androgen suppression with leuprorelin (22·5 mg every 3 months, intramuscularly) for 6 months (short-term) and radiotherapy alone (designated STAS); this procedure was either followed by another 12 months of androgen suppression with leuprorelin (intermediate-term; ITAS) or accompanied by 18 months of zoledronic acid (4 mg every 3 months for 18 months, intravenously; STAS plus zoledronic acid) or by both (ITAS plus zoledronic acid). The primary endpoint was prostate cancer-specific mortality. This analysis represents the first, preplanned assessment of oncological endpoints, 5 years after treatment. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00193856.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 20, 2003, and Aug 15, 2007, 1071 men were randomly assigned to STAS (n=268), STAS plus zoledronic acid (n=268), ITAS (n=268), and ITAS plus zoledronic acid (n=267). Median follow-up was 7·4 years (IQR 6·5-8·4). Cumulative incidences of prostate cancer-specific mortality were 4·1% (95% CI 2·2-7·0) in the STAS group, 7·8% (4·9-11·5) in the STAS plus zoledronic acid group, 7·4% (4·6-11·0) in the ITAS group, and 4·3% (2·3-7·3) in the ITAS plus zoledronic acid group. Cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was 17·0% (13·0-22·1), 18·9% (14·6-24·2), 19·4% (15·0-24·7), and 13·9% (10·3-18·8), respectively. Neither prostate cancer-specific mortality nor all-cause mortality differed between control and experimental groups. Cumulative incidence of PSA progression was 34·2% (28·6-39·9) in the STAS group, 39·6% (33·6-45·5) in the STAS plus zoledronic acid group, 29·2% (23·8-34·8) in the ITAS group, and 26·0% (20·8-31·4) in the ITAS plus zoledronic acid group. Compared with STAS, no difference was noted in PSA progression with ITAS or STAS plus zoledronic acid; however, ITAS plus zoledronic acid reduced PSA progression (sub-hazard ratio [SHR] 0·71, 95% CI 0·53-0·95; p=0·021). Cumulative incidence of local progression was 4·1% (2·2-7·0) in the STAS group, 6·1% (3·7-9·5) in the STAS plus zoledronic acid group, 1·5% (0·5-3·7) in the ITAS group, and 3·4% (1·7-6·1) in the ITAS plus zoledronic acid group; no differences were noted between groups. Cumulative incidences of bone progression were 7·5% (4·8-11·1), 14·6% (10·6-19·2), 8·4% (5·5-12·2), and 7·6% (4·8-11·2), respectively. Compared with STAS, STAS plus zoledronic acid increased the risk of bone progression (SHR 1·90, 95% CI 1·14-3·17; p=0·012), but no differences were noted with the other two groups. Cumulative incidence of distant progression was 14·7% (10·7-19·2) in the STAS group, 17·3% (13·0-22·1) in the STAS plus zoledronic acid group, 14·2% (10·3-18·7) in the ITAS group, and 11·1% (7·6-15·2) in the ITAS plus zoledronic acid group; no differences were recorded between groups. Cumulative incidence of secondary therapeutic intervention was 25·6% (20·5-30·9), 28·9% (23·5-34·5), 20·7% (16·1-25·9), and 15·3% (11·3-20·0), respectively. Compared with STAS, ITAS plus zoledronic acid reduced the need for secondary therapeutic intervention (SHR 0·67, 95% CI 0·48-0·95; p=0·024); no differences were noted with the other two groups. An interaction between trial factors was recorded for Gleason score; therefore, we did pairwise comparisons between all groups. Post-hoc analyses suggested that the reductions in PSA progression and decreased need for secondary therapeutic intervention with ITAS plus zoledronic acid were restricted to tumours with a Gleason score of 8-10, and that ITAS was better than STAS in tumours with a Gleason score of 7 or lower. Long-term morbidity and quality-of-life scores were not affected adversely by 18 months of androgen suppression or zoledronic acid.

INTERPRETATION

Compared with STAS, ITAS plus zoledronic acid was more effective for treatment of prostate cancers with a Gleason score of 8-10, and ITAS alone was effective for tumours with a Gleason score of 7 or lower. Nevertheless, these findings are based on secondary endpoint data and post-hoc analyses and must be regarded cautiously. Long- term follow-up is necessary, as is external validation of the interaction between zoledronic acid and Gleason score. STAS plus zoledronic acid can be ruled out as a potential therapeutic option.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Novartis Pharmaceuticals Australia, Abbott Pharmaceuticals Australia, New Zealand Health Research Council, New Zealand Cancer Society, University of Newcastle (Australia), Calvary Health Care (Calvary Mater Newcastle Radiation Oncology Fund), Hunter Medical Research Institute, Maitland Cancer Appeal, Cancer Standards Institute New Zealand.

Coffee and tea consumption in relation to prostate cancer prognosis

BACKGROUND

Bioactive compounds found in coffee and tea may delay the progression of prostate cancer.

METHODS

We investigated associations of pre-diagnostic coffee and tea consumption with risk of prostate cancer recurrence/progression. Study participants were men diagnosed with prostate cancer in 2002-2005 in King County, Washington, USA. We assessed the usual pattern of coffee and tea consumption two years before diagnosis date. Prostate cancer-specific outcome events were identified using a detailed follow-up survey. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The analysis of coffee intake in relation to prostate cancer recurrence/progression included 630 patients with a median follow-up of 6.4 years, during which 140 prostate cancer recurrence/progression events were recorded. Approximately 61 % of patients consumed at least one cup of coffee per day. Coffee consumption was associated with a reduced risk of prostate cancer recurrence/progression; the adjusted HR for ≥4 cups/day versus ≤1 cup/week was 0.41 (95 % CI: 0.20, 0.81; p for trend = 0.01). Approximately 14 % of patients consumed one or more cups of tea per day, and tea consumption was unrelated to prostate cancer recurrence/progression.

CONCLUSION

Results indicate that higher pre-diagnostic coffee consumption is associated with a lower risk of prostate cancer recurrence/progression. This finding will require replication in larger studies.

Statin use in relation to prostate cancer outcomes in a population-based patient cohort study

BACKGROUND

We investigated associations between statin use begun before prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis and PCa recurrence/progression and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) in a prospective, population-based cohort study.

METHODS

The analysis included 1,001 PCa patients diagnosed in 2002-2005 in King County, Washington. Statin use was assessed at the time of diagnosis using a detailed in-person interview. Prostate cancer recurrence/progression events and cause-specific survival were ascertained from a follow-up survey and the SEER registry. Multivariable competing risk and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the risk of PCa outcomes according to categories of statin use.

RESULTS

Of the 1,001 PCa patients in our study, 289 men were ever users of statin drugs. During follow-up, we identified 151 PCa recurrence/progression events and 123 total deaths, including 39 PCa-specific deaths. In unadjusted analysis, the risk of PCSM was significantly lower for statin users compared to non-users (1% vs. 5% at 10 years; P < 0.01). In multivariable analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio of PCSM for statin users versus non-users was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.56). Statin use was not associated with overall PCa recurrence/progression and other-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Statin use begun before PCa diagnosis was unrelated to PCa recurrence/progression but was associated with a decrease in risk of PCSM.

Risk Stratification after Biochemical Failure following Curative Treatment of Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer: Data from the TROG 96.01 Trial

Purpose. Survival following biochemical failure is highly variable. Using a randomized trial dataset, we sought to define a risk stratification scheme in men with locally advanced prostate cancer (LAPC). Methods. The TROG 96.01 trial randomized 802 men with LAPC to radiation ± neoadjuvant androgen suppression therapy (AST) between 1996 and 2000. Ten-year follow-up data was used to develop three-tier post-biochemical failure risk stratification schemes based on cutpoints of time to biochemical failure (TTBF) and PSA doubling time (PSADT). Schemes were evaluated in univariable, competing risk models for prostate cancer-specific mortality. The performance was assessed by c-indices and internally validated by the simple bootstrap method. Performance rankings were compared in sensitivity analyses using multivariable models and variations in PSADT calculation. Results. 485 men developed biochemical failure. c-indices ranged between 0.630 and 0.730. The most discriminatory scheme had a high risk category defined by PSADT < 4 months or TTBF < 1 year and low risk category by PSADT > 9 months or TTBF > 3 years. Conclusion. TTBF and PSADT can be combined to define risk stratification schemes after biochemical failure in men with LAPC treated with short-term AST and radiotherapy. External validation, particularly in long-term AST and radiotherapy datasets, is necessary.

Early salvage hormonal therapy for biochemical failure improved survival in prostate cancer patients after neoadjuvant hormonal therapy plus radiation therapy--a secondary analysis of irish clinical oncology research group 97-01

PURPOSE

To assess the survival benefit of early vs late salvage hormonal therapy (HT), we performed a secondary analysis on patients who developed recurrence from Irish Clinical Oncology Research Group 97-01, a randomized trial comparing 4 vs 8 months neoadjuvant HT plus radiation therapy (RT) in intermediate- and high-risk prostate adenocarcinoma.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A total of 102 patients from the trial who recurred were analyzed at a median follow-up of 8.5 years. The patients were divided into 3 groups based on the timing of salvage HT: 57 patients had prostate-specific antigen (PSA)≤10 ng/mL and absent distant metastases (group 1, early), 21 patients had PSA>10 ng/mL and absent distant metastases (group 2, late), and 24 patients had distant metastases (group 3, late). The endpoint analyzed was overall survival (OS) calculated from 2 different time points: date of enrolment in the trial (OS1) and date of initiation of salvage HT (OS2). Survival was estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and a Cox regression model.

RESULTS

The OS1 differed significantly between groups (P<.0005): OS1 at 10 years was 78% in group 1, 42% in group 2, and 29% in group 3. The OS2 also differed significantly between groups (P<.0005): OS2 at 6 years was 70% in group 1, 47% in group 2, and 22% in group 3. Group 1 had the longest median time from end of RT to biochemical failure compared with groups 2 and 3 (3.3, 0.9, and 1.7 years, respectively; P<.0005). Group 1 also had the longest median PSA doubling time compared with groups 2 and 3 (9.9, 3.6, and 2.4 months, respectively; P<.0005). On multivariate analysis, timing of salvage HT, time from end of RT to biochemical failure, and PSA nadir on salvage HT were significant predictors of survival.

CONCLUSION

Early salvage HT based on PSA≤10 ng/mL and absent distant metastases improved survival in patients with prostate cancer after failure of initial treatment with neoadjuvant HT plus RT.

Outcome of patients with localized prostate cancer treated by radiotherapy after confirming the absence of lymph node invasion

Objective

Management of lymph nodes in radiotherapy for prostate cancer is an issue for curative intent. To find the influence of lymph nodes, patients with T1–T3 prostate cancer and surgically confirmed negative nodes were treated with radiotherapy.

Methods

After lymphadenectomy, 118 patients received photon beam radiotherapy with 66 Gy to the prostate. No adjuvant treatment was performed until biochemical failure. After failure, hormone therapy was administered. Follow-up period was 57 months (mean).

Results

Biochemical failure occurred in 47 patients. Few failures were observed in patients with low (24%) and intermediate risks (14%). In contrast, 64% of high-risk patients experienced failure, 97% of whom showed until 36 months. Most patients with failure responded well to hormone therapy. After 15 months (mean), a second biochemical failure occurred in 21% of patients who had the first failure, most of them were high risk. Factors involving failure were high initial and nadir prostate-specific antigen, advanced stage, short prostate-specific antigen-doubling time and duration between radiation and first failure. Failure showed an insufficient reduction in prostate-specific antigen after radiotherapy. Factor for second failure was prostate-specific antigen-doubling time at first failure.

Conclusions

Half of high-risk patients experienced biochemical failure, indicating one of the causes involves factors other than lymph nodes. Low-, intermediate- and the other half of high-risk patients did not need to take immediate hormone therapy after radiotherapy. After failure, delayed hormone therapy was effective. Prostate-specific antigen parameters were predictive factors for further outcome.

A comparison of the prognostic value of early PSA test-based variables following external beam radiotherapy, with or without preceding androgen deprivation: analysis of data from the TROG 96.01 randomized trial

PURPOSE

We sought to compare the prognostic value of early prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test-based variables for the 802 eligible patients treated in the Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 96.01 randomized trial.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Patients in this trial had T2b, T2c, T3, and T4 N0 prostate cancer and were randomized to 0, 3, or 6 months of neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (NADT) prior to and during radiation treatment at 66 Gy to the prostate and seminal vesicles. The early PSA test-based variables evaluated were the pretreatment initial PSA (iPSA) value, PSA values at 2 and 4 months into NADT, the PSA nadir (nPSA) value after radiation in all patients, and PSA response signatures in men receiving radiation. Comparisons of endpoints were made using Cox models of local progression-free survival, distant failure-free survival, biochemical failure-free survival, and prostate cancer-specific survival.

RESULTS

The nPSA value was a powerful predictor of all endpoints regardless of whether NADT was given before radiation. PSA response signatures also predicted all endpoints in men treated by radiation alone. iPSA and PSA results at 2 and 4 months into NADT predicted biochemical failure-free survival but not any of the clinical endpoints. nPSA values correlated with those of iPSA, Gleason grade, and T stage and were significantly higher in men receiving radiation alone than in those receiving NADT.

CONCLUSIONS

The postradiation nPSA value is the strongest prognostic indicator of all early PSA-based variables. However, its use as a surrogate endpoint needs to take into account its dependence on pretreatment variables and treatment method.