Predicting the outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: Progress and uncertainty

Impact of Binet Staging versus Tumour Bulk on Treatment Outcome in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia

BACKGROUND

Most of the predictive tools put up to prognosticate treatment outcomes in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) are not easily available and affordable in our resource-constrained environment.

AIM

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of staging and some tumour bulk on treatment outcomes of persons with CLL, Enugu, Nigeria.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a 10-year review of the CLL data from the haemato-oncology unit of a Nigerian tertiary hospital to evaluate the impact of staging and tumour bulk indicators. Data were retrieved from the case notes of 102 patients with CLL receiving care at the facility. Data of interest include basic demographic variables, clinical features including spleen size and disease staging and blood counts. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS version 22.

RESULTS

The median absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) was 108.05 (confidence interval [CI] = 50.8-201.3, interquartile range [IQR] = 124.4) ×109/L, and duration of survival for the study cohort was 5.5 (CI = 3.5-31.9, IQR = 27) months. Majority (69, 79.3%) were in Stage C. The Binet stage showed a significant association with the ALC (r = 0.338; P = 0.002) but not with spleen size (r = 0.198; P = 0.056). The duration of survival only showed a significant inverse relationship with the ALC (r = 0.35, P = 0.006) but with neither the Binet stage (r = 0.103, P = 0.431) nor spleen size (r = 0.184, P = 0.116).

CONCLUSION

In CLL patients, ALC at presentation correlates with the duration of survival. We recommend that the ALC at presentation be used as a prognostic marker in our clime.

A perspective on prognostic models in chronic lymphocytic leukemia in the era of targeted agents

Despite the increase in the number of prognostic models currently available for evaluating patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), their current application and utilization in clinical practice in the era of targeted agents is unclear. A critical reappraisal of recently developed prognostic models is presented in this review. The underlying CLL's genetic instability and changes in the host's health and comorbidities can all contribute to the acquisition of additional risk factors for adverse outcomes during the course of the disease. Therefore, available risk models solely based on pretreatment variables only partially predict patients' clinical outcome. A dynamic prognostic model that takes into account changes in the risk profile over time could indeed be useful in routine clinical practice. The next generation of risk assessment models should incorporate post-treatment and response biomarkers such as minimal residual disease. Finally, recent advances in the field of machine learning present novel opportunities to generate models capable of providing an individualized estimation of clinical outcomes in CLL. However, in the era of improved prognostic models, it is important to remember that these indices should supplement but not replace clinical expertise and medical decision-making.

Cell therapy of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: Transplants and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T cells

There is substantial progress in the therapy of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL), much of it the result of new drug development. As such the definition of high-risk CLL is changing. Nevertheless, few persons with CLL are cured with current therapy. Two types of cell therapies of CLL are currently being evaluated or re-evaluated in the context of these advances: haematopoietic cell transplants and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-T-cells. We discuss the potential role of these cell therapies in the context of the evolving therapy topography of CLL including how these therapies work and who, if anyone, is an appropriate candidate for cell therapy.

Lymphocyte Doubling Time As A Key Prognostic Factor To Predict Time To First Treatment In Early-Stage Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

The prognostic role of lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) was recognized more than three decades ago when the neoplastic clone’s biology was almost unknown. LDT was defined as the time needed for the peripheral blood lymphocyte count to double the of the initial observed value. Herein, the LDT prognostic value for time to first treatment (TTFT) was explored in our prospective O-CLL cohort and validated in in two additional CLL cohorts. Specifically, newly diagnosed Binet stage A CLL patients from 40 Italian Institutions, representative of the whole country, were prospectively enrolled into the O-CLL1-GISL protocol (clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT00917540). Two independent cohorts of newly diagnosed CLL patients recruited respectively at the Division of Hematology in Novara, Italy, and at the Hospital Clinic in Barcelona, Spain, were utilized as validation cohorts. In the training cohort, TTFT of patients with LDT >12 months was significantly longer related to those with a shorter LDT. At Cox multivariate regression model, LDT ≤ 12 months maintained a significant independent relationship with shorter TTFT along with IGHV unmutated (IGHVunmut) status, 11q and 17p deletions, elevated β2M, Rai stage I-II, and NOTCH1 mutations. Based on these statistics, two regression models were constructed including the same prognostic factors with or without the LDT. The model with the LTD provided a significantly better data fitting (χ² = 8.25, P=0.0041). The risk prediction developed including LDT had better prognostic accuracy than those without LDT. Moreover, the Harrell’C index for the scores including LDT were higher than those without LDT, although the accepted 0.70 threshold exceeded in both cases. These findings were also confirmed when the same analysis was carried out according to TTFT’s explained variation. When data were further analyzed based on the combination between LDT and IGHV mutational status in the training and validation cohorts, IGHVunmut and LDT>12months group showed a predominant prognostic role over IGHVmut LTD ≤ 12 months (P=0.006) in the O-CLL validation cohort. However, this predominance was of borden-line significance (P=0.06) in the Barcelona group, while the significant prognostic impact was definitely lost in the Novara group. Overall, in this study, we demonstrated that LDT could be re-utilized together with the more sophisticated prognostic factors to manage the follow-up plans for Binet stage A CLL patients.

Lymphocyte doubling time in chronic lymphocytic leukemia modern era: a real-life study in 848 unselected patients

The prognostic significance of lymphocyte doubling time (LDT) in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) was identified when the biology of the disease was poorly understood and therapy was not effective. We assessed the clinical and biological significance of LDT in 848 CLL patients in a real-life setting and the context of new biomarkers and effective therapy. A short LDT (≤12 months) was enriched for adverse biomarkers. Patients with a rapid LDT did need therapy shortly after diagnosis (median 23 months vs. not reached; p < 0.001) and had a poorer overall survival (median 95 months vs. not reached p < 0.001). LDT, IGHV mutational status, Beta-2 microglobulin, and Rai clinical stage were independent predictors for time to first treatment in the whole series and in Binet stage A patients. No correlation was observed between LDT and response to chemoimmunotherapy. However, a short LDT along with age ≥65 years, high-risk FISH (del(17p), del(11q)), unmutated IGHV, increased Beta-2 microglobulin, and TP53 mutations predicted short survival. Moreover, the prognostic significance of LDT was independent of the CLL-IPI and the Barcelona/Brno prognostic model. LDT remains an important outcome marker in the modern CLL era and should be incorporated into the clinical assessment and stratification of CLL patients.

From Biomarkers to Models in the Changing Landscape of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Evolve or Become Extinct

Simple Summary

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is characterized by a highly variable clinical course. Thus, predicting the outcome of patients with this disease is a topic of special interest. The rapidly changing treatment landscape of CLL has questioned the value of classical biomarkers and prognostic models. Herein we examine the current state-of-the-art of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in the setting of new oral targeted agents with special focus on the most controversial findings over the last years. We also discuss the available information on the role of “old” and “new” prognostic models in the era of oral small molecules.

Abstract

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. With the advent of oral targeted agents (Tas) the treatment of CLL has undergone a revolution, which has been accompanied by an improvement in patient’s survival and quality of life. This paradigm shift also affects the value of prognostic and predictive biomarkers and prognostic models, most of them inherited from the chemoimmunotherapy era but with a different behavior with Tas. This review discusses: (i) the role of the most relevant prognostic and predictive biomarkers in the setting of Tas; and (ii) the validity of classic and new scoring systems in the context of Tas. In addition, a critical point of view about predictive biomarkers with special emphasis on 11q deletion, novel resistance mutations, TP53 abnormalities, IGHV mutational status, complex karyotype and NOTCH1 mutations is stated. We also go over prognostic models in early stage CLL such as IPS-E. Finally, we provide an overview of the applicability of the CLL-IPI for patients treated with Tas, as well as the emergence of new models, generated with data from patients treated with Tas.

International prognostic score for asymptomatic early-stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Most patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) are diagnosed with early-stage disease and managed with active surveillance. The individual course of patients with early-stage CLL is heterogeneous, and their probability of needing treatment is hardly anticipated at diagnosis. We aimed at developing an international prognostic score to predict time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with CLL with early, asymptomatic disease (International Prognostic Score for Early-stage CLL [IPS-E]). Individual patient data from 11 international cohorts of patients with early-stage CLL (n = 4933) were analyzed to build and validate the prognostic score. Three covariates were consistently and independently correlated with TTFT: unmutated immunoglobulin heavy variable gene (IGHV), absolute lymphocyte count higher than 15 × 109/L, and presence of palpable lymph nodes. The IPS-E was the sum of the covariates (1 point each), and separated low-risk (score 0), intermediate-risk (score 1), and high-risk (score 2-3) patients showing a distinct TTFT. The score accuracy was validated in 9 cohorts staged by the Binet system and 1 cohort staged by the Rai system. The C-index was 0.74 in the training series and 0.70 in the aggregate of validation series. By meta-analysis of the training and validation cohorts, the 5-year cumulative risk for treatment start was 8.4%, 28.4%, and 61.2% among low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients, respectively. The IPS-E is a simple and robust prognostic model that predicts the likelihood of treatment requirement in patients with early-stage CLL. The IPS-E can be useful in clinical management and in the design of early intervention clinical trials.