Unexpected population response to increasing temperature in the context of a strong species interaction

Selection for oligotrophy among bacteria inhabiting host microbiomes

IMPORTANCE

Understanding how natural selection has historically shaped the traits of microbial populations comprising host microbiomes would help predict how the functions of these microbes may continue to evolve over space and time. Numerous host-associated microbes have been found to adapt to their host, sometimes becoming obligate symbionts, whereas free-living microbes are best known to adapt to their surrounding environment. Our study assessed the selective pressures of both the host environment and the surrounding external environment in shaping the functional potential of host-associated bacteria. Despite residing within the resource-rich microbiome of their hosts, we demonstrate that host-associated heterotrophic bacteria show evidence of trait selection that matches the nutrient availability of their broader surrounding environment. These findings illustrate the complex mix of selective pressures that likely shape the present-day function of bacteria found inhabiting host microbiomes. Our study lends insight into the shifts in function that may occur as environments fluctuate over time.

Environmental context dependency in species interactions

Ecological interactions are not uniform across time and can vary with environmental conditions. Yet, interactions among species are often measured with short-term controlled experiments whose outcomes can depend greatly on the particular environmental conditions under which they are performed. As an alternative, we use empirical dynamic modeling to estimate species interactions across a wide range of environmental conditions directly from existing long-term monitoring data. In our case study from a southern California kelp forest, we test whether interactions between multiple kelp and sea urchin species can be reliably reconstructed from time-series data and whether those interactions vary predictably in strength and direction across observed fluctuations in temperature, disturbance, and low-frequency oceanographic regimes. We show that environmental context greatly alters the strength and direction of species interactions. In particular, the state of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation seems to drive the competitive balance between kelp species, asserting bottom-up control on kelp ecosystem dynamics. We show the importance of specifically studying variation in interaction strength, rather than mean interaction outcomes, when trying to understand the dynamics of complex ecosystems. The significant context dependency in species interactions found in this study argues for a greater utilization of long-term data and empirical dynamic modeling in studies of the dynamics of other ecosystems.

Quantile regression illuminates the successes and shortcomings of long-term eutrophication remediation efforts in an urban river system

Despite massive financial investment in mitigation, eutrophication remains a major water quality problem and management priority. Eutrophication science-well established for lakes-is not as well developed for rivers, and scientific understanding of how rivers respond to eutrophication management is far more limited. Long-term data are required to evaluate progress, but such datasets are relatively rare for rivers. We analyzed 23 years of water quality data for the Charles River, a major urban river system in the northeastern U.S.A., to examine nutrient and phytoplankton biomass (chl-a) responses to decades of phosphorus (P) management. Using the more novel and robust approach of quantile regression, we identified statistically and ecologically significant declines in both total phosphorus (TP) and chl-a over time, but only for middle percentiles. Statistically high concentrations of TP and chl-a persist-the segments of the data of greatest concern to managers and the public-and yet this critical result is concealed by statistical tests often employed in eutrophication studies that only evaluate mean changes. TP, temperature, precipitation, and river segment jointly explain the most chl-a variation observed at the decadal scale. Spatial variation is also considerable: despite a significant decline in TP, the impounded lower river exhibits no long-term trend in chl-a and continues to experience annual blooms of harmful cyanobacteria-a lagging response comparable to that of a recovering eutrophic lake. Despite long-term successes in reducing P, chl-a, and cyanobacteria in the Charles River system, we did not detect any significant, long-term change in the attainment of statutory compliance, illustrating the protracted and complex nature of the river's response. Our analysis demonstrates the need for high-frequency, long-term water quality data to evaluate the progress of eutrophication management in urban rivers, and the utility of quantile regression for detecting critical trends in the occurrence of statistically low-frequency but ecologically high-impact events, including blooms of harmful cyanobacteria.