Climate change leads to increasing population density and impacts of a key island invader

Introduced and invasive alien species of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean Islands

Open data on biological invasions are particularly critical in regions that are co-governed and/or where multiple independent parties have responsibility for preventing and controlling invasive alien species. The Antarctic is one such region where, in spite of multiple examples of invasion policy and management success, open, centralised data are not yet available. This dataset provides current and comprehensive information available on the identity, localities, establishment, eradication status, dates of introduction, habitat, and evidence of impact of known introduced and invasive alien species for the terrestrial and freshwater Antarctic and Southern Ocean region. It includes 3066 records for 1204 taxa and 36 individual localities. The evidence indicates that close to half of these species are not having an invasive impact, and that ~ 13% of records are of species considered locally invasive. The data are provided using current biodiversity and invasive alien species data and terminology standards. They provide a baseline for updating and maintaining the foundational knowledge needed to halt the rapidly growing risk of biological invasion in the region.

Can vegetation be discretely classified in species-poor environments? Testing plant community concepts for vegetation monitoring on sub-Antarctic Marion Island

The updating and rethinking of vegetation classifications is important for ecosystem monitoring in a rapidly changing world, where the distribution of vegetation is changing. The general assumption that discrete and persistent plant communities exist that can be monitored efficiently, is rarely tested before undertaking a classification. Marion Island (MI) is comprised of species-poor vegetation undergoing rapid environmental change. It presents a unique opportunity to test the ability to discretely classify species-poor vegetation with recently developed objective classification techniques and relate it to previous classifications. We classified vascular species data of 476 plots sampled across MI, using Ward hierarchical clustering, divisive analysis clustering, non-hierarchical kmeans and partitioning around medoids. Internal cluster validation was performed using silhouette widths, Dunn index, connectivity of clusters and gap statistic. Indicator species analyses were also conducted on the best performing clustering methods. We evaluated the outputs against previously classified units. Ward clustering performed the best, with the highest average silhouette width and Dunn index, as well as the lowest connectivity. The number of clusters differed amongst the clustering methods, but most validation measures, including for Ward clustering, indicated that two and three clusters are the best fit for the data. However, all classification methods produced weakly separated, highly connected clusters with low compactness and low fidelity and specificity to clusters. There was no particularly robust and effective classification outcome that could group plots into previously suggested vegetation units based on species composition alone. The relatively recent age (c. 450,000 years B.P.), glaciation history (last glacial maximum 34,500 years B.P.) and isolation of the sub-Antarctic islands may have hindered the development of strong vascular plant species assemblages with discrete boundaries. Discrete classification at the community-level using species composition may not be suitable in such species-poor environments. Species-level, rather than community-level, monitoring may thus be more appropriate in species-poor environments, aligning with continuum theory rather than community theory.

Climate Change Alters Sexual Signaling in a Desert-Adapted Frog

AbstractClimate change is altering species' habitats, phenology, and behavior. Although sexual behaviors impact population persistence and fitness, climate change's effects on sexual signals are understudied. Climate change can directly alter temperature-dependent sexual signals, cause changes in body size or condition that affect signal production, or alter the selective landscape of sexual signals. We tested whether temperature-dependent mating calls of Mexican spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata) had changed in concert with climate in the southwestern United States across 22 years. We document increasing air temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and changing seasonal patterns of temperature and rainfall in the spadefoots' habitat. Despite increasing air temperatures, spadefoots' ephemeral breeding ponds have been getting colder at most elevations, and male calls have been slowing as a result. However, temperature-standardized call characters have become faster, and male condition has increased, possibly due to changes in the selective environment. Thus, climate change might generate rapid, complex changes in sexual signals with important evolutionary consequences.

The rising threat of climate change for arthropods from Earth's cold regions: Taxonomic rather than native status drives species sensitivity

Polar and alpine regions are changing rapidly with global climate change. Yet, the impacts on biodiversity, especially on the invertebrate ectotherms which are dominant in these areas, remain poorly understood. Short-term extreme temperature events, which are growing in frequency, are expected to have profound impacts on high-latitude ectotherms, with native species being less resilient than their alien counterparts. Here, we examined in the laboratory the effects of short periodic exposures to thermal extremes on survival responses of seven native and two non-native invertebrates from the sub-Antarctic Islands. We found that survival of dipterans was significantly reduced under warming exposures, on average having median lethal times (LT₅₀ ) of about 30 days in control conditions, which declined to about 20 days when exposed to daily short-term maxima of 24°C. Conversely, coleopterans were either not, or were less, affected by the climatic scenarios applied, with predicted LT₅₀ as high as 65 days under the warmest condition (daily exposures at 28°C for 2 h). The native spider Myro kerguelensis was characterized by an intermediate sensitivity when subjected to short-term daily heat maxima. Our results unexpectedly revealed a taxonomic influence, with physiological sensitivity to heat differing between higher level taxa, but not between native and non-native species representing the same higher taxon. The survival of a non-native carabid beetle under the experimentally imposed conditions was very high, but similar to that of native beetles, while native and non-native flies also exhibited very similar sensitivity to warming. As dipterans are a major element of diversity of sub-Antarctic, Arctic and other cold ecosystems, such observations suggest that the increased occurrence of extreme, short-term, thermal events could lead to large-scale restructuring of key terrestrial ecosystem components both in ecosystems protected from and those exposed to the additional impacts of biological invasions.

Ego network analysis of the trophic structure of an island land bird through 300 years of climate change and invaders

Ego net analysis is a well‐known practice in social sciences, where an ego net (EN) consists of a focal node, the ego, and its links to other nodes, called alters, and alter–alter links may also be included. An EN describes how a focal node is embedded in its interaction context. Here, I introduce EN analysis to ecology in a study of the trophic network of a sub‐Antarctic land bird, Lesser Sheathbill (Chionis minor). Data originate from the sheathbill population on Marion Island in the Southern Ocean. The bird is ego and its enemies and food are alters. The EN is organized along three dimensions: habitat, interaction type, and time (from before human arrival in 1803 and until a future year 2100). Ten EN descriptors are defined, estimated, and used to track the 300 years of change in sheathbill EN structure. Since 1803, the EN has passed two major, but reversible shifts—seal exploitation in the 19th century and presence of cats from 1949 to 1991. These shifts can be read as structural changes in the sheathbill EN. In the future, a third, perhaps irreversible change is predicted, driven by climate change and a surprising, recent shift to seabird predation by House Mouse, the most detrimental of all extant invaders on Marion. In a warmer and drier future, the mouse will proliferate, and if this forces seabirds to abandon the island, their accumulation of detritus runs dry, starving a rich invertebrate detritivore fauna, which also is a key food source to sheathbills. These detritivores together with plants have also constituted the main food sources of mice. The EN descriptors quantify that story. In the future, these events may lead to a collapse of the island ecosystem, including extinction of the sheathbill—unless plans for mouse eradication are implemented.

Do Invasive Mammal Eradications from Islands Support Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation?

Climate change represents a planetary emergency that is exacerbating the loss of native biodiversity. In response, efforts promoting climate change adaptation strategies that improve ecosystem resilience and/or mitigate climate impacts are paramount. Invasive Alien Species are a key threat to islands globally, where strategies such as preventing establishment (biosecurity), and eradication, especially invasive mammals, have proven effective for reducing native biodiversity loss and can also advance ecosystem resilience and create refugia for native species at risk from climate change. Furthermore, there is growing evidence that successful eradications may also contribute to mitigating climate change. Given the cross-sector potential for eradications to reduce climate impacts alongside native biodiversity conservation, we sought to understand when conservation managers and funders explicitly sought to use or fund the eradication of invasive mammals from islands to achieve positive climate outcomes. To provide context, we first summarized available literature of the synergistic relationship between invasive species and climate change, including case studies where invasive mammal eradications served to meet climate adaptation or mitigation solutions. Second, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and eradication-related conference proceedings to identify when these synergistic effects of climate and invasive species were explicitly addressed through eradication practices. Third, we reviewed projects from four large funding entities known to support climate change solutions and/or native biodiversity conservation efforts and identified when eradications were funded in a climate change context. The combined results of our case study summary paired with systematic reviews found that, although eradicating invasive mammals from islands is an effective climate adaptation strategy, island eradications are poorly represented within the climate change adaptation and mitigation funding framework. We believe this is a lost opportunity and encourage eradication practitioners and funders of climate change adaptation to leverage this extremely effective nature-based tool into positive conservation and climate resilience solutions.

Demographic History and Genomic Response to Environmental Changes in a Rapid Radiation of Wild Rats

For organisms to survive and prosper in a harsh environment, particularly under rapid climate change, poses tremendous challenges. Recent studies have highlighted the continued loss of megafauna in terrestrial ecosystems and the subsequent surge of small mammals, such as rodents, bats, lagomorphs, and insectivores. However, the ecological partitioning of these animals will likely lead to large variation in their responses to environmental change. In the present study, we investigated the evolutionary history and genetic adaptations of white-bellied rats (Niviventer Marshall, 1976), which are widespread in the natural terrestrial ecosystems in Asia but also known as important zoonotic pathogen vectors and transmitters. The southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was inferred as the origin center of this genus, with parallel diversification in temperate and tropical niches. Demographic history analyses from mitochondrial and nuclear sequences of Niviventer demonstrated population size increases and range expansion for species in Southeast Asia, and habitat generalists elsewhere. Unexpectedly, population increases were seen in N. eha, which inhabits the highest elevation among Niviventer species. Genome scans of nuclear exons revealed that among the congeneric species, N. eha has the largest number of positively selected genes. Protein functions of these genes are mainly related to olfaction, taste, and tumor suppression. Extensive genetic modification presents a major strategy in response to global changes in these alpine species.

A novel approach to quantifying trophic interaction strengths and impact of invasive species in food webs

Measuring ecological and economic impacts of invasive species is necessary for managing invaded food webs. Based on abundance, biomass and diet data of autochthonous and allochthonous fish species, we proposed a novel approach to quantifying trophic interaction strengths in terms of number of individuals and biomass that each species subtract to the others in the food web. This allowed to estimate the economic loss associated to the impact of an invasive species on commercial fish stocks, as well as the resilience of invaded food webs to further perturbations. As case study, we measured the impact of the invasive bass Micropterus salmoides in two lake communities differing in food web complexity and species richness, as well as the biotic resistance of autochthonous and allochthonous fish species against the invader. Resistance to the invader was higher, while its ecological and economic impact was lower, in the more complex and species-rich food web. The percid Perca fluviatilis and the whitefish Coregonus lavaretus were the two species that most limited the invader, representing meaningful targets for conservation biological control strategies. In both food webs, the limiting effect of allochthonous species against M. salmoides was higher than the effect of autochthonous ones. Simulations predicted that the eradication of the invader would increase food web resilience, while that an increase in fish diversity would preserve resilience also at high abundances of M. salmoides. Our results support the conservation of biodiverse food webs as a way to mitigate the impact of bass invasion in lake ecosystems. Notably, the proposed approach could be applied to any habitat and animal species whenever biomass and diet data can be obtained.

Wind plays a major but not exclusive role in the prevalence of insect flight loss on remote islands

Terrestrial species on islands often show reduced dispersal abilities. For insects, the generality of explanations for island flight loss remains contentious. Although habitat stability is considered the most plausible explanation, others are frequently highlighted. Adopting a strong inference approach, we examined the hypotheses proposed to account for the prevalence of flightlessness in island insect assemblages, for a region long suspected to be globally unusual in this regard-the Southern Ocean Islands (SOIs). Combining comprehensive faunal inventories, species' morphological information, and environmental variables from 28 SOIs, we provide the first quantitative evidence that flightlessness is exceptionally prevalent among indigenous SOI insect species (47%). Prevalence among species which have evolved elsewhere is much lower: Arctic island species (8%), species introduced to the SOIs (17%), and globally (estimated as approx. 5%). Variation in numbers of flightless species and genera across islands is best explained by variation in wind speed, although habitat stability (thermal seasonality proxy) may play a role. Variables associated with insularity, such as island size, are generally poor predictors of flightlessness. The outcomes redirect attention to Darwin's wind hypothesis. They suggest, however, that wind selects for flightlessness through an energy trade-off between flight and reproduction, instead of by displacement from suitable habitats.

Societal attention toward extinction threats: a comparison between climate change and biological invasions

Public attention and interest in the fate of endangered species is a crucial prerequisite for effective conservation programs. Societal awareness and values will largely determine whether conservation initiatives receive necessary support and lead to adequate policy change. Using text data mining, we assessed general public attention in France, Germany and the United Kingdom toward climate change and biological invasions in relation to endangered amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species. Our analysis revealed that public attention patterns differed among species groups and countries but was globally higher for climate change than for biological invasions. Both threats received better recognition in threatened than in non-threatened species, as well as in native species than in species from other countries and regions. We conclude that more efficient communication regarding the threat from biological invasions should be developed, and that conservation practitioners should take advantage of the existing attention toward climate change.

Systematic prey preference by introduced mice exhausts the ecosystem on Antipodes Island

House mice (Mus musculus) are a widespread invasive species on islands. Where they are the sole introduced mammal they can have particularly strong negative impacts on recipient ecosystems. House mice impacts have been documented on almost every component of the terrestrial ecosystem on Southern Ocean islands, including plants, invertebrates, birds and ecosystem function. We undertook a comprehensive study to determine the impacts of house mice on Antipodes Island, New Zealand. This study was done prior to mouse eradication to inform monitoring and restoration. We used invertebrate pitfall trapping on the main Antipodes Island and neighbouring mouse-free offshore islands together with mouse stomach contents and stable isotope analyses of mouse livers to examine dietary preferences. We identified directly impacted and consumed invertebrate Orders relative to their abundance and provided a comprehensive picture of resource flow and overlap in the invaded terrestrial ecosystem. The remote terrestrial ecosystem of Antipodes Island was tightly circumscribed with strong resource overlap. Mouse diet varied seasonally with resource availability, dominated by invertebrates and land birds in summer, and plants and seabirds in winter. Invertebrates that were preferentially preyed upon were Amphipoda, Lepidoptera and some species of Coleoptera. These patterns suggest the ecosystem is annually driven by a seasonal bottom-up resource pulse over summer, where mice are a selective predator, differentially preying on invertebrates relative to invertebrate abundance. Mice appear to be exhausting preferred prey as they systematically consume their way through the terrestrial ecosystem. Land bird diet also varied seasonally and some of these birds likely competed with mice for invertebrate prey. Eradication of mice from Antipodes Island should reduce the predation on invertebrates and reduce the effects of competition and predation on land birds. This should have flow-on effects to the abundance of invertebrates and endemic land bird sub-species of pipit and snipe.

The failure of success: cyclic recurrences of a globally invasive pest

In the six decades since 1960, the oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), has been announced successfully eradicated in California by the U.S. Department of Agriculture a total of 564 times. This includes eradication declarations in one city a total of 25 different years, in 12 cities 8-19 different years, and in 101 cities 2-7 different years. We here show that the false negatives in declaring elimination success hinge on the easily achieved regulatory criteria, which have virtually guaranteed the failure of complete extirpation of this pest. Analyses of the time series of fly detection over California placed on a grid of 100-km² cells revealed (1) partial success of the eradication program in controlling the invasion of the oriental fruit fly; (2) low prevalence of the initial detection in these cells is often followed by high prevalence of recurrences; (3) progressively shorter intervals between years of consecutive detections; and (4) high likelihood of early-infested cells also experiencing the most frequent outbreaks. Facing the risk of recurrent invasions, such short-term eradication programs have only succeeded annually according to the current regulatory criteria but have failed to achieve the larger goal of complete extirpation of the oriental fruit fly. Based on the components and running costs of the current programs, we further estimated the efficiency of eradication programs with different combinations of eradication radius, duration, and edge impermeability in reducing invasion recurrences and slowing the spread of the oriental fruit fly. We end with policy implications including the need for agricultural agencies worldwide to revisit eradication protocols in which monitoring and treatments are terminated when the regulatory criteria for declaring eradication are met. Our results also have direct implications to invasion biologists and agriculture policy makers regarding long-term risks of short-term expediency.

Species-energy relationships of indigenous and invasive species may arise in different ways - a demonstration using springtails

Although the relationship between species richness and available energy is well established for a range of spatial scales, exploration of the plausible underlying explanations for this relationship is less common. Speciation, extinction, dispersal and environmental filters all play a role. Here we make use of replicated elevational transects and the insights offered by comparing indigenous and invasive species to test four proximal mechanisms that have been offered to explain relationships between energy availability, abundance and species richness: the sampling mechanism (a null expectation), and the more individuals, dynamic equilibrium and range limitation mechanisms. We also briefly consider the time for speciation mechanism. We do so for springtails on sub-Antarctic Marion Island. Relationships between energy availability and species richness are stronger for invasive than indigenous species, with geometric constraints and area variation playing minor roles. We reject the sampling and more individuals mechanisms, but show that dynamic equilibrium and range limitation are plausible mechanisms underlying these gradients, especially for invasive species. Time for speciation cannot be ruled out as contributing to richness variation in the indigenous species. Differences between the indigenous and invasive species highlight the ways in which deconstruction of richness gradients may usefully inform investigations of the mechanisms underlying them. They also point to the importance of population size-related mechanisms in accounting for such variation. In the context of the sub-Antarctic our findings suggest that warming climates may favour invasive over indigenous species in the context of changes to elevational distributions, a situation found for vascular plants, and predicted for springtails on the basis of smaller-scale manipulative field experiments.

Phenotypic plasticity in locomotor performance of a monophyletic group of weevils accords with the warmer is better hypothesis

Ectotherms may respond to variable environmental conditions by altering their phenotypes. Phenotypic plasticity was initially thought to be beneficial to an organism's physiological fitness. Several alternative hypotheses, have, however, been proposed with growing empirical support. In this study, we test the full suite of hypotheses by investigating acclimation responses of locomotor performance for nine populations of five species of sub-Antarctic weevils, using static and fluctuating temperatures. Species showed typical locomotion thermal performance curves with temperature of the maximum speed (Topt) ranging between 22.3±1.7°C (mean±s.e.) and 31.1±0.7°C. For most species Topt was not affected by acclimation. For maximum speed (Umax), significant, positive effects of acclimation were found for all species except a supralittoral one. Individuals acclimated to 0°C showed much lower values than the other two acclimation treatments (15°C and fluctuating 0-15°C). Performance breadth (the index of the breadth of the curve, Tbr) typically showed little response to acclimation. None of the traits of the supralittoral species were affected by acclimation treatment. Responses to stable and fluctuating temperature treatments were similar. Our findings also revealed that the mean estimated activation energy 0.40±0.015 eV (mean±s.e.) was lower than for other herbivores, the category to which these weevils belong, suggesting that some form of compensation in the rate-temperature relationship may be evident. Thus, we typically found support for the warmer is better hypothesis for acclimation of locomotor performance, though some compensation is evident.

High resolution temperature data for ecological research and management on the Southern Ocean Islands

Southern Ocean Islands are globally significant conservation areas. Predicting how their terrestrial ecosystems will respond to current and forecast climate change is essential for their management and requires high-quality temperature data at fine spatial resolutions. Existing datasets are inadequate for this purpose. Remote-sensed land surface temperature (LST) observations, such as those collected by satellite-mounted spectroradiometers, can provide high-resolution, spatially-continuous data for isolated locations. These methods require a clear sightline to measure surface conditions, however, which can leave large data-gaps in temperature time series. Using a spatio-temporal gap-filling method applied to high-resolution (~1 km) LST observations for 20 Southern Ocean Islands, we compiled a complete monthly temperature dataset for a 15-year period (2001-2015). We validated results using in situ measurements of microclimate temperature. Gap-filled temperature observations described the thermal heterogeneity of the region better than existing climatology datasets, particularly for islands with steep elevational gradients and strong prevailing winds. This dataset will be especially useful for terrestrial ecologists, conservation biologists, and for developing island-specific management and mitigation strategies for environmental change.