Additive and interactive cumulative effects on boreal landbirds: winners and losers in a multi-stressor landscape

How landscape traits affect boreal mammal responses to anthropogenic disturbance

Understanding mammalian responses to anthropogenic disturbance is challenging, as ecological processes and the patterns arising therefrom notoriously change across spatial and temporal scales, and among different landscape contexts. Responses to local scale disturbances are likely influenced by landscape context (e.g., overall landscape-level disturbance, landscape-level productivity). Hierarchical approaches considering small-scale sampling sites as nested holons within larger-scale landscapes, which constrain processes in lower-level holons, can potentially explain differences in ecological processes between multiple locations. We tested hypotheses about mammal responses to disturbance and interactions among holons using collected images from 957 camera sites across 9 landscapes in Alberta from 2007 to 2020 and examined occurrence for 11 mammal species using generalized linear mixed models. White-tailed deer occurred more in higher disturbed sites within lower disturbed landscapes (β = -0.30 [-0.4 to -0.15]), whereas occurrence was greater in highly disturbed sites within highly disturbed landscapes for moose (β = 0.20 [0.09-0.31]), coyote (β = 0.20 [0.08-0.26]), and lynx (β = 0.20 [0.07-0.26]). High disturbance sites in high productivity landscapes had higher occurrence of black bears (β = -0.20 [-0.46 to -0.01]), lynx (β = -0.70 [-0.97 to -0.34]), and wolves (β = -0.50 [-0.73 to -0.21]). Conversely, we found higher probability of occurrence in low productivity landscapes with increasing site disturbance for mule deer (β = 0.80 [0.39-1.14]), and white-tailed deer (β = 0.20 [0.01-0.47]). We found the ecological context created by aggregate sums (high overall landscape disturbance), and by subcontinental hydrogeological processes in which that landscape is embedded (high landscape productivity), alter mammalian responses to anthropogenic disturbance at local scales. These responses also vary by species, which has implications for large-scale conservation planning. Management interventions must consider large-scale geoclimatic processes and geographic location of a landscape when assessing wildlife responses to disturbance.

Domains of scale in cumulative effects of energy sector development on boreal birds

Context

Industrial development in Canada's boreal forest creates cumulative environmental effects on biodiversity. Some effects may be scale-dependent, creating uncertainty in understanding and hindering effective management.

Objectives

We estimated cumulative effects of energy sector development on distributions of sixteen migratory songbird species at multiple spatial scales within the boreal region of Alberta, Canada, and evaluated evidence for scale domains in species responses.

Methods

We used a hierarchical, multi-scale sampling and modelling framework to compare effects of oil and gas footprint on songbirds at five spatial scales. We used Bayesian Lasso to facilitate direct comparison of parameter estimates across scales, and tested for differences in grouped parameter estimates among species.

Results

We found consistent scale-dependent patterns across species, showing variable responses to development occurring at the smallest scale, little effect at intermediate scales, and stronger, mainly positive effects at the largest scales. Differences in grouped parameter estimates across scales showed strong evidence for scale domains in the response of songbirds to energy sector development.

Conclusions

We concluded that variable effects at the smallest scale represented individual habitat selection, while larger scale positive effects reflected expanding distributions of open habitat- and disturbance-associated species in areas of high oil and gas footprint. Our results show that single-scale analyses do not reflect population processes occurring at other scales. Future research on linking patterns at different scales is required to fully understand cumulative effects of land use change on wildlife populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-023-01779-8.

Integration of aerial surveys and resource selection analysis indicates human land use supports boreal deer expansion

Landscape change is a driver of global biodiversity loss. In the western Nearctic, petroleum exploration and extraction is a major contributor to landscape change, with concomitant effects on large mammal populations. One of those effects is the continued expansion of invasive white-tailed deer populations into the boreal forest, with ramifications for the whole ecosystem. We explored deer resource selection within the oil sands region of the boreal forest using a novel application of aerial ungulate survey (AUS) data. Deer locations from AUS were "used" points and together with randomly allocated "available" points informed deer resource selection in relation to landscape variables in the boreal forest. We created a candidate set of generalized linear models representing competing hypotheses about the role of natural landscape features, forest harvesting, cultivation, roads, and petroleum features. We ranked these in an information-theoretic framework. A combination of natural and anthropogenic landscape features best explained deer resource selection. Deer strongly selected seismic lines and other linear features associated with petroleum exploration and extraction, likely as movement corridors and resource subsidies. Forest harvesting and cultivation, important contributors to expansion in other parts of the white-tailed deer range, were not as important here. Stemming deer expansion to conserve native ungulates and maintain key predator-prey processes will likely require landscape management to restore the widespread linear features crossing the vast oil sands region.

Can diet niche partitioning enhance sexual dimorphism?

Classic evolutionary theory suggests that sexual dimorphism evolves primarily via sexual and fecundity selection. However, theory and evidence are beginning to accumulate suggesting that resource competition can drive the evolution of sexual dimorphism, via ecological character displacement between sexes. A key prediction of this hypothesis is that the extent of ecological divergence between sexes will be associated with the extent of sexual dimorphism. As the stable isotope ratios of animal tissues provide a quantitative measure of various aspects of ecology, we carried out a meta-analysis examining associations between the extent of isotopic divergence between sexes and the extent of body size dimorphism. Our models demonstrate that large amounts of between-study variation in isotopic (ecological) divergence between sexes is nonrandom and may be associated with the traits of study subjects. We, therefore, completed meta-regressions to examine whether the extent of isotopic divergence between sexes is associated with the extent of sexual size dimorphism. We found modest but significantly positive associations across species between size dimorphism and ecological differences between sexes, that increased in strength when the ecological opportunity for dietary divergence between sexes was greatest. Our results, therefore, provide further evidence that ecologically mediated selection, not directly related to reproduction, can contribute to the evolution of sexual dimorphism.

Multiscale nest‐site selection of ducks in the western boreal forest of Alberta

There is limited data regarding the nesting ecology of boreal ducks and their response to industrial development, despite this region being an important North American breeding area. We investigated how landcover and oil and gas development affect third‐order nest‐site selection of boreal ducks. We located duck nests in Alberta's western boreal forest between 2016 and 2018. We used multiscale analysis to identify how scale affects the selection of a resource using generalized linear mixed‐effects models and determined what scale‐optimized combination of landscape features were most important in describing where ducks nest. We located 136 nests of six species of upland nesting ducks between 2016 and 2018. The magnitude, direction, and best spatial scale varied by resource. For landcover, ducks selected nest‐sites associated with mineral wetlands (300 m) and open water (300 m). Ducks avoided greater densities of seismic lines (300 m) and pipelines (2500 m) but selected nest‐sites associated with borrow pits (300 m) and roads (1000 m). We used our models to predict important duck nesting habitat in the boreal forest, which can support conservation and management decisions. We recommend conservation actions target the conservation of mineral wetlands and associated habitats within this working landscape. Further research is necessary to understand the adaptive consequences of nest‐site selection and how industrial development influences important nest predators.

The joint effects of salt and 6PPD contamination on a freshwater herbivore

Using sodium chloride (NaCl) for de-icing roads is known to have severe consequences on freshwater organisms when washed into water bodies. N-(1,3-dimethylbutyl)-N'-phenyl-p-phenylenediamine, also known as 6PPD, is an antiozonant mainly found in automobile tire rubber to prevent ozone mediated cracking or wear-out. Especially the ozonated derivate, 6PPD-quinone, which is washed into streams after storm events, has been found to be toxic for coho salmon. Studies on other freshwater organisms could not confirm those findings, pointing towards distinct species-specific differences. Storm events result in greater run-offs from all water-soluble contaminants into freshwater bodies, potentially enhancing the concentrations of both chloride and 6PPD during winter. Here we show that these two contaminants have synergistic negative effects on the population growth of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, a common freshwater herbivore. Hence, while only high concentrations of 6PPD and even higher concentrations of 6PPD-quinone, beyond environmentally relevant concentrations, had lethal effects on rotifers, the addition of NaCl enhanced the sensitivity of the rotifers towards the application of 6PPD so that their negative effects were more pronounced at lower concentrations. Similarly, 6PPD increased the lethal effect of NaCl. Our results support the species-specific toxicity of 6PPD and demonstrate a synergistic effect of the antiozonant on the toxicity of other environmentally relevant stressors, such as road salt contamination.

A synthetic review of terrestrial biological research from the Alberta oil sands region: 10 years of published literature

In the past decade, a large volume of peer-reviewed papers has examined the potential impacts of oil and gas resource extraction in the Canadian oil sands (OS). A large proportion focuses on terrestrial biology: wildlife, birds, and vegetation. We provide a qualitative synthesis of the condition of the environment in the oil sands region (OSR) from 2009 to 2020 to identify gaps and progress cumulative effects assessments. Our objectives were to (1) qualitatively synthesize and critically review knowledge from the OSR; (2) identify consistent trends and generalizable conclusions; and (3) pinpoint gaps in need of greater monitoring or research effort. We visualize knowledge and terrestrial monitoring foci by allocating papers to a conceptual model for the OS. Despite a recent increase in publications, focus has remained concentrated on a few key stressors, especially landscape disturbance, and a few taxa of interest. Stressor and response monitoring is well represented, but direct monitoring of pathways (linkages between stressors and responses) is limited. Important knowledge gaps include understanding effects at multiple spatial scales, mammal health effects monitoring, focused monitoring of local resources important to Indigenous communities, and geospatial coverage and availability, including higher attribute resolution in human footprint, comprehensive land cover mapping, and up-to-date LiDAR coverage. Causal attribution based on spatial proximity to operations or spatial orientation of monitoring in the region is common but may be limited in the strength of inference that it provides. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:388-406. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Assessing Pathways of Climate Change Effects in SpaDES: An Application to Boreal Landbirds of Northwest Territories Canada

Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through changing fire regimes and/or vegetation dynamics, or directly through changes in climatic suitability may allow land managers to address negative trajectories via forest management. We used SpaDES, a novel toolkit built in R that facilitates the implementation of simulation models from different areas of knowledge to develop a simulation experiment for a study area comprising 50 million ha in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our factorial experiment was designed to contrast climate effects pathways on 64 landbird species using climate-sensitive and non-climate sensitive models for tree growth and mortality, wildfire, and landbirds. Climate-change effects were predicted to increase suitable habitat for 73% of species, resulting in average net gain of 7.49 million ha across species. We observed higher species turnover in the northeastern, south-central (species loss), and western regions (species gain). Importantly, we found that most of the predicted differences in net area of occupancy across models were attributed to direct climate effects rather than simulated vegetation change, despite a similar relative importance of vegetation and climate variables in landbird models. Even with close to a doubling of annual area burned by 2100, and a 600 kg/ha increase in aboveground tree biomass predicted in this region, differences in landbird net occupancy across models attributed to climate-driven forest growth were very small, likely resulting from differences in the pace of vegetation and climate changes, or vegetation lags. The effect of vegetation lags (i.e., differences from climatic equilibrium) varied across species, resulting in a wide range of changes in landbird distribution, and consequently predicted occupancy, due to climate effects. These findings suggest that hybrid approaches using statistical models and landscape simulation tools could improve wildlife forecasts when future uncoupling of vegetation and climate is anticipated. This study lays some of the methodological groundwork for ecological adaptive management using the new platform SpaDES, which allows for iterative forecasting, mixing of modeling paradigms, and tightening connections between data, parameterization, and simulation.

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.

A functional perspective on the analysis of land use and land cover data in ecology

Assessments of large-scale changes in habitat are a priority for management and conservation. Traditional approaches use land use and land cover data (LULC) that focus mostly on "structural" properties of landscapes, rather than "functional" properties related to specific ecological processes. Here, we contend that designing functional analyses of LULC can provide important and complementary information to traditional, structural analyses. We substantiate this perspective with an example of functional changes in habitat due to industrial anthropogenic footprints in Alberta's boreal forest, where there has been little overall forest loss (~ 6% structural change), but high levels of functional change (up to 93% functional change) for species' habitat, biodiversity, and wildfire ignition. We discuss the methods needed to achieve functional LULC analyses, when they are most appropriate to add to structural assessments, and conclude by providing recommendations for analyses of LULC in a future of increasingly high-resolution, dynamic remote sensing data.

The Forest Line Mapper: A Semi-Automated Tool for Mapping Linear Disturbances in Forests

Forest land-use planning and restoration requires effective tools for mapping and attributing linear disturbances such as roads, trails, and asset corridors over large areas. Most existing linear-feature databases are generated by heads-up digitizing. While suitable for cartographic purposes, these datasets often lack the fine spatial details and multiple attributes required for more demanding analytical applications. To address this need, we developed the Forest Line Mapper (FLM), a semi-automated software tool for mapping and attributing linear features using LiDAR-derived canopy height models. Accuracy assessments conducted in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada showed that the FLM reliably predicts both the center line (polyline) and footprint (extent polygons) of a variety of linear-feature types including roads, pipelines, seismic lines, and power lines. Our analysis showed that FLM outputs were consistently more accurate than publicly available datasets produced by human photo-interpreters, and that the tool can be reliably deployed across large application areas. In addition to accurately delineating linear features, the FLM generates a variety of spatial attributes associated with line geometry and vegetation characteristics from input canopy height data. Our statistical evaluation indicates that spatial attributes generated by the FLM may be useful for studying and classifying linear features based on disturbance type and ground conditions. The FLM is open-source and freely available and is aimed to assist researchers and land managers working in forested environments everywhere.

A cost efficient spatially balanced hierarchical sampling design for monitoring boreal birds incorporating access costs and habitat stratification

Predicting and mitigating impacts of climate change and development within the boreal biome requires a sound understanding of factors influencing the abundance, distribution, and population dynamics of species inhabiting this vast biome. Unfortunately, the limited accessibility of the boreal biome has resulted in sparse and spatially biased sampling, and thus our understanding of boreal bird population dynamics is limited. To implement effective conservation of boreal birds, a cost-effective approach to sampling the boreal biome will be needed. Our objective was to devise a sampling scheme for monitoring boreal birds that would improve our ability to model species-habitat relationships and monitor changes in population size and distribution. A statistically rigorous design to achieve these objectives would have to be spatially balanced and hierarchically structured with respect to ecozones, ecoregions and political jurisdictions. Therefore, we developed a multi-stage hierarchically structured sampling design known as the Boreal Optimal Sampling Strategy (BOSS) that included cost constraints, habitat stratification, and optimization to provide a cost-effective alternative to other common monitoring designs. Our design provided similar habitat and spatial representation to habitat stratification and equal-probability spatially balanced designs, respectively. Not only was our design able to achieve the desired habitat representation and spatial balance necessary to meet our objectives, it was also significantly less expensive (1.3−2.6 times less) than the alternative designs we considered. To further balance trade-offs between cost and representativeness prior to field implementation, we ran multiple iterations of the BOSS design and selected the one which minimized predicted costs while maximizing a multi-criteria evaluation of representativeness. Field implementation of the design in three vastly different regions over three field seasons showed that the approach can be implemented in a wide variety of logistical scenarios and ecological conditions. We provide worked examples and scripts to allow our approach to be implemented or adapted elsewhere. We also provide recommendations for possible future refinements to our approach, but recommend that our design now be implemented to provide unbiased information to assess the status of boreal birds and inform conservation and management actions.