The effects of population synchrony, life history, and access constraints on benefits from fishing portfolios

Spatial and seasonal foraging patterns drive diet differences among north Pacific resident killer whale populations

Highly social top marine predators, including many cetaceans, exhibit culturally learned ecological behaviours such as diet preference and foraging strategy that can affect their resilience to competition or anthropogenic impacts. When these species are also endangered, conservation efforts require management strategies based on a comprehensive understanding of the variability in these behaviours. In the northeast Pacific Ocean, three partially sympatric populations of resident killer whales occupy coastal ecosystems from California to Alaska. One population (southern resident killer whales) is endangered, while another (southern Alaska resident killer whales) has exhibited positive abundance trends for the last several decades. Using 185 faecal samples collected from both populations between 2011 and 2021, we compare variability in diet preference to provide insight into differences in foraging patterns that may be linked with the relative success and decline of these populations. We find broad similarities in the diet of the two populations, with differences arising from spatiotemporal and social variability in resource use patterns, especially in the timing of shifts between target prey species. The results described here highlight the importance of comprehensive longitudinal monitoring of foraging ecology to inform management strategies for endangered, highly social top marine predators.

Synchrony erodes spatial portfolios of an anadromous fish and alters availability for resource users

Environmental forces can create spatially synchronous dynamics among nearby populations. However, increased climate variability, driven by anthropogenic climate change, will likely enhance synchrony among spatially disparate populations. Population synchrony may lead to greater fluctuations in abundance, but the consequences of population synchrony across multiple scales of biological organization, including impacts to putative competitors, dependent predators or human communities, are rarely considered in this context. Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha stocks distribute across the Northeast Pacific, creating spatially variable portfolios that support large ocean fisheries and marine mammal predators, such as killer whales Orcinus orca. We rely on a multi-population model that simulates Chinook salmon ocean distribution and abundance to understand spatial portfolios, or variability in abundance within and among ocean distribution regions, of Chinook salmon stocks across 17 ocean regions from Southeast Alaska to California. We found the expected positive correlation between the number of stocks in an ocean region and spatial portfolio strength; however, increased demographic synchrony eroded Chinook salmon spatial portfolios in the ocean. Moreover, we observed decreased resource availability within ocean fishery management jurisdictions but not within killer whale summer habitat. We found a strong portfolio effect across both Southern Resident and Northern Resident killer whale habitats that was relatively unaffected by increased demographic synchrony, likely a result of the large spatial area included in these habitats. However, within the areas of smaller fishing management jurisdictions we found a weakening of Chinook salmon portfolios and increased but inconsistent likelihood of low abundance years as demographic synchrony increased. We suggest that management and conservation actions that reduce spatial synchrony can enhance short-term ecosystem resilience by promoting the stabilizing effect multiple stocks have on aggregate Chinook salmon populations and overall resource availability.