Experimental seed sowing reveals seedling recruitment vulnerability to unseasonal fire

Environmental Factors Driving Seed Hydration Status of Soil Seed Banks and the Implications for Post-fire Recruitment

Changes in fire regimes due to climate change and fire management practices are affecting the timing, length, and distribution of vegetation fires throughout the year. Plant species responses and tolerances to fire differ from season to season and are influenced by species-specific phenological processes. The ability of seeds to tolerate extreme temperatures associated with fire is one of these processes, with survival linked to seed moisture content at the time of exposure. As fire is more often occurring outside historic dry fire seasons, the probability of fire occurring when seeds are hydrated may also be increasing. In this study, we set out to understand the seasonal dynamics of seed hydration for seeds of Banksia woodland species, and how certain seed traits interact with environmental conditions to influence survival of high temperatures associated with fire. We measured the moisture content of seeds buried to 2 cm in the soil seed bank for four common native species and one invasive species on a weekly basis throughout 2017, along with soil moisture content and environmental correlates. We determined water sorption isotherms at 20°C for seeds of each species and used these functions to model weekly variation in seed water activity and predict when seeds are most sensitive to soil heating. Using Generalised additive models (GAMs), we were able to describe approximately 67% of the weekly variance in seed water activity and explored differences in seed hydration dynamics between species. Seed water activity was sufficiently high (i.e., ≥ 0.85 a _w) so as to have created an increased risk of mortality if a fire had occurred during an almost continuous period between May and November in the study period (i.e., 2017). There were brief windows when seeds may have been in a dry state during early winter and late spring, and also when they may have been in a wet state during summer and late autumn. These data, and the associated analyses, provide an opportunity to develop approaches to minimize seed mortality during fire and maximize the seed bank response.

Experimental seed sowing reveals seedling recruitment vulnerability to unseasonal fire

Unseasonal fire occurrence is increasing globally, driven by climate change and other human activity. Changed timing of fire can inhibit postfire seedling recruitment through interactions with plant phenology (the timing of key processes, e.g., flower initiation, seed production, dispersal, germination), and therefore threaten the persistence of many plant species. Although empirical evidence from winter-rainfall ecosystems shows that optimal seedling recruitment is expected following summer and autumn (dry season) fires, we sought experimental evidence isolating the mechanisms of poor recruitment following unseasonal (wet season) fire. We implemented a seed-sowing experiment using nine species native to fire-prone, Mediterranean-climate woodlands in southwestern Australia to emulate the timing of postfire recruitment and test key mechanisms of fire seasonality effects. For seeds sown during months when fire is unseasonal (i.e., August-September: end of the wet winter season), seedling recruitment was reduced by up to 99% relative to seeds sown during seasonal fire months (i.e., May-June: end of the dry summer season) because of varying seed persistence, seedling emergence, and seedling survival. We found that up to 70 times more seedlings emerged when seeds were sown during seasonal fire months compared to when seeds were sown during unseasonal fire months. The few seedlings that emerged from unseasonal sowings all died with the onset of the dry season. Of the seeds that failed to germinate from unseasonal sowings, only 2% survived exposure on the soil surface over the ensuing hot and dry summer. Our experimental results demonstrate the potential for unseasonal fire to inhibit seedling recruitment via impacts on pregermination seed persistence and seedling establishment. As ongoing climate change lengthens fire seasons (i.e., unseasonal wildfires become more common) and managed fires are implemented further outside historically typical fire seasons, postfire seedling recruitment may become more vulnerable to failure, causing shifts in plant community composition towards those with fewer species solely dependent on seeds for regeneration.