1
|
Londe DW, Davis CA, Loss SR, Robertson EP, Haukos DA, Hovick TJ. Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2930. [PMID: 37941497 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2930] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 09/15/2023] [Indexed: 11/10/2023]
Abstract
Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David W Londe
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Craig A Davis
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Scott R Loss
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Ellen P Robertson
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - David A Haukos
- U.S. Geological Survey, Kansas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA
| | - Torre J Hovick
- School of Natural Resource Sciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota, USA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Bansal S, Post van der Burg M, Fern RR, Jones JW, Lo R, McKenna OP, Tangen BA, Zhang Z, Gleason RA. Large increases in methane emissions expected from North America's largest wetland complex. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eade1112. [PMID: 36857447 PMCID: PMC9977182 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ade1112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Natural methane (CH4) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH4 flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH4 emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America's largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH4 emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH4 emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH4 emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH4 concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sheel Bansal
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Max Post van der Burg
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Rachel R. Fern
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
- Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, San Marcos, TX, USA
| | - John W. Jones
- U.S. Geological Survey, Hydrologic Remote Sensing Branch, Kearneysville, WV, USA
| | - Rachel Lo
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Owen P. McKenna
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Brian A. Tangen
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Robert A. Gleason
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, Jamestown, ND, USA
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Londe DW, Joshi O, York BC, Davis CA, Loss SR, Robertson EP, Hovick TJ. Climate Change and Wetlands in the Southern Great Plains: How Are Managers Dealing with an Uncertain Future? ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 71:379-392. [PMID: 36474092 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-022-01758-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 11/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Little guidance is available to assist wetland managers in developing climate adaptation plans. To facilitate development of recommendations for adaptation strategies, it is essential to first determine if or how wetland managers are addressing these challenges. We used an online survey to solicit feedback from wetland managers and biologists in the Southern Great Plains of North America to gain information on perceptions of wetland managers regarding climate change; assess how the effects of climate change are being addressed through management; and identify barriers to implementing climate change adaptation. The majority of wetland managers (63%) agreed they are currently experiencing effects of climate change in wetlands, and most respondents (76%) reported that changes in the timing of water availability throughout the year was the most likely impact. Managers reported using a diversity of approaches in managing for changing precipitation, with management of native and invasive plant species being the two most common practices. Lack of funding and personnel were the most commonly identified factors limiting manager's response to changing precipitation patterns. In addition, >50% of managers indicated uncertainty about the effects of climate change on wetlands as a barrier to management, which may relate to limited access to peer-reviewed science. While most of the management practices reported were short-term measures and may not reflect long-term adaptation for climate change, the fact that many managers are considering climate change in their management suggests that there is considerable opportunities to continue developing capacity for climate change adaptation in the region.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- David W Londe
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, 008c Ag Hall, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA.
| | - Omkar Joshi
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, 008c Ag Hall, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA
| | - Betsey C York
- Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation, 1801 N. Lincoln Blvd, Oklahoma City, OK, 73105, USA
| | - Craig A Davis
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, 008c Ag Hall, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA
| | - Scott R Loss
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, 008c Ag Hall, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA
| | - Ellen P Robertson
- Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, 008c Ag Hall, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA
| | - Torre J Hovick
- School of Natural Resource Sciences, 201D Morrill Hall, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND, 58108, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Saunders SP, Meehan TD, Michel NL, Bateman BL, DeLuca W, Deppe JL, Grand J, LeBaron GS, Taylor L, Westerkam H, Wu JX, Wilsey CB. Unraveling a century of global change impacts on winter bird distributions in the eastern United States. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:2221-2235. [PMID: 35060249 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/09/2021] [Revised: 12/10/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
One of the most pressing questions in ecology and conservation centers on disentangling the relative impacts of concurrent global change drivers, climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC), on biodiversity. Yet studies that evaluate the effects of both drivers on species' winter distributions remain scarce, hampering our ability to develop full-annual-cycle conservation strategies. Additionally, understanding how groups of species differentially respond to climate versus LULC change is vital for efforts to enhance bird community resilience to future environmental change. We analyzed long-term changes in winter occurrence of 89 species across nine bird groups over a 90-year period within the eastern United States using Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) data. We estimated variation in occurrence probability of each group as a function of spatial and temporal variation in winter climate (minimum temperature, cumulative precipitation) and LULC (proportion of group-specific and anthropogenic habitats within CBC circle). We reveal that spatial variation in bird occurrence probability was consistently explained by climate across all nine species groups. Conversely, LULC change explained more than twice the temporal variation (i.e., decadal changes) in bird occurrence probability than climate change on average across groups. This pattern was largely driven by habitat-constrained species (e.g., grassland birds, waterbirds), whereas decadal changes in occurrence probabilities of habitat-unconstrained species (e.g., forest passerines, mixed habitat birds) were equally explained by both climate and LULC changes over the last century. We conclude that climate has generally governed the winter occurrence of avifauna in space and time, while LULC change has played a pivotal role in driving distributional dynamics of species with limited and declining habitat availability. Effective land management will be critical for improving species' resilience to climate change, especially during a season of relative resource scarcity and critical energetic trade-offs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah P Saunders
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Timothy D Meehan
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Nicole L Michel
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Brooke L Bateman
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - William DeLuca
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Jill L Deppe
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Joanna Grand
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | | | - Lotem Taylor
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Henrik Westerkam
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Joanna X Wu
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| | - Chad B Wilsey
- Science Division, National Audubon Society, New York, New York, USA
| |
Collapse
|