Postglacial recolonization shaped the genetic diversity of the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) in Europe

Buffering and phenological mismatch: A change of perspective

The potential for climate change to disrupt phenology-mediated interactions in interaction networks has attracted considerable attention in recent decades. Frequently, studies emphasize the fragility of ephemeral seasonal interactions, and the risks posed by phenological asynchrony. Here, we argue that the fitness consequences of asynchrony in phenological interactions may often be more buffered than is typically acknowledged. We identify three main forms that buffering may take: (i) mechanisms that reduce asynchrony between consumer and resource; (ii) mechanisms that reduce the costs of being asynchronous; and (iii) mechanisms that dampen interannual variance in performance across higher organizational units. Using synchrony between the hatching of winter moth caterpillars and the leafing of their host-plants as a case study, we identify a wide variety of buffers that reduce the detrimental consequences of phenological asynchrony on caterpillar individuals, populations, and meta-populations. We follow this by drawing on examples across a breadth of taxa, and demonstrate that these buffering mechanisms may be quite general. We conclude by identifying key gaps in our knowledge of the fitness and demographic consequences of buffering, in the context of phenological mismatch. Buffering has the potential to substantially alter our understanding of the biotic impacts of future climate change-a greater recognition of the contribution of these mechanisms may reveal that many trophic interactions are surprisingly resilient, and also serve to shift research emphasis to those systems with fewer buffers and towards identifying the limits of those buffers.

Four times out of Europe: Serial invasions of the winter moth, Operophtera brumata, to North America

Reconstructing the geographic origins of non-native species is important for studying the factors that influence invasion success, however; these analyses can be constrained by the amount of diversity present in the native and invaded regions, and by changes in the genetic background of the invading population following bottlenecks and/or hybridization events. Here we explore the geographical origins of the invasive winter moth (Operopthera brumata L.) that has caused widespread defoliation to forests, orchards, and crops in Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Oregon, and the northeastern United States. It is not known whether these represent independent introductions to North America, or a "stepping stone" spread among regions. Using a combination of Bayesian assignment and approximate Bayesian computation methods, we analysed a population genetic data set of 24 microsatellite loci. We estimate that winter moth was introduced to North America on at least four occasions, with the Nova Scotian and British Columbian populations probably being introduced from France and Sweden, respectively; the Oregonian population probably being introduced from either the British Isles or northern Fennoscandia; and the population in the northeastern United States probably being introduced from somewhere in Central Europe. We discuss the impact of genetic bottlenecks on analyses meant to determine region of origin.

Predicting the invasion range for a highly polyphagous and widespread forest herbivore

Here we compare the environmental niche of a highly polyphagous forest Lepidoptera species, the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), in its native and invaded range. During the last 90 years, this European tree folivore has invaded North America in at least three regions and exhibited eruptive population behavior in both its native and invaded range. Despite its importance as both a forest and agricultural pest, neither the potential extent of this species’ invaded range nor the geographic source of invading populations from its native range are known. Here we fit a climatic niche model, based on the MaxEnt algorithm, to historical records of winter moth occurrence in its native range and compare predictions of suitable distributions to records from the invaded range. We modeled this distribution using three spatial bins to overcome sampling bias for data obtained from public databases and averaged the multi-continental suitable habitat prediction. Results indicate that this species is distributed across a wide range of climates in its native range but occupies a narrower range in its invaded habitat. Furthermore, the lack of a close fit between climatic conditions in parts of its invaded range and its known native range suggests the possibility that this species has adapted to new climatic conditions during the invasion process. These models can be used to predict suitable habitats for winter moth invasions worldwide and to gain insight into possible origins of North American populations.

Identification of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) refugia in North Africa and the Italian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum

Numerous studies have shown that the genetic diversity of species inhabiting temperate regions has been shaped by changes in their distributions during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. For some species, the genetic distinctness of isolated populations is maintained during secondary contact, while for others, admixture is frequently observed. For the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), an important defoliator of oak forests across Europe and northern Africa, we previously determined that contemporary populations correspond to genetic diversity obtained during the last glacial maximum (LGM) through the use of refugia in the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, and to a lesser extent the Caucasus region. Missing from this sampling were populations from the Italian peninsula and from North Africa, both regions known to have played important roles as glacial refugia for other species. Therefore, we genotyped field-collected winter moth individuals from southern Italy and northwestern Tunisia-the latter a region where severe oak forest defoliation by winter moth has recently been reported-using polymorphic microsatellite. We reconstructed the genetic relationships of these populations in comparison to moths previously sampled from the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, the Caucasus region, and western Europe using genetic distance, Bayesian clustering, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our results indicate that both the southern Italian and the Tunisian populations are genetically distinct from other sampled populations, and likely originated in their respective refugium during the LGM after diverging from a population that eventually settled in the Iberian refugium. These suggest that winter moth populations persisted in at least five Mediterranean LGM refugia. Finally, we comment that outbreaks by winter moth in northwestern Tunisia are not the result of a recent introduction of a nonnative species, but rather are most likely due to land use or environmental changes.

Inferring the demographic history of an oligophagous grasshopper: Effects of climatic niche stability and host-plant distribution

Understanding the consequences of past environmental changes on the abiotic and biotic components of the landscape and deciphering their impacts on the demographic trajectories of species is a major issue in evolutionary biogeography. In this study, we combine nuclear and mitochondrial genetic data to study the phylogeographical structure and lineage-specific demographic histories of the scrub-legume grasshopper (Chorthippus binotatus binotatus), a montane taxon distributed in the Iberian Peninsula and France that exclusively feeds on certain scrub-legume species. Genetic data and paleo-distribution modelling indicate the presence of four main lineages that seem to have diverged in allopatry and long-term persisted in Iberian and French refugia since the Mid Pleistocene. Comparisons of different demographic hypotheses in an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework supported a population bottleneck in the northwestern French clade and paleo-distribution modelling indicate that the populations of this lineage have experienced more severe environmental fluctuations during the last 21 000 years than those from the Iberian Peninsula. Accordingly, we found that nuclear genetic diversity of the populations of scrub-legume grasshopper is positively associated with local stability of suitable habitats defined by both Pleistocene climate changes and historical distributional shifts of host-plant species. Overall, our study highlights the importance of integrating the potential effects of abiotic (i.e. climate and geography) and biotic components (i.e. inter-specific interactions) into the study of the evolutionary and demographic history of specialist taxa with narrow ecological requirements.

Postglacial recolonization shaped the genetic diversity of the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) in Europe

Changes in climate conditions, particularly during the Quaternary climatic oscillations, have long been recognized to be important for shaping patterns of species diversity. For species residing in the western Palearctic, two commonly observed genetic patterns resulting from these cycles are as follows: (1) that the numbers and distributions of genetic lineages correspond with the use of geographically distinct glacial refugia and (2) that southern populations are generally more diverse than northern populations (the “southern richness, northern purity” paradigm). To determine whether these patterns hold true for the widespread pest species the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), we genotyped 699 individual winter moths collected from 15 Eurasian countries with 24 polymorphic microsatellite loci. We find strong evidence for the presence of two major genetic clusters that diverged ~18 to ~22 ka, with evidence that secondary contact (i.e., hybridization) resumed ~ 5 ka along a well‐established hybrid zone in Central Europe. This pattern supports the hypothesis that contemporary populations descend from populations that resided in distinct glacial refugia. However, unlike many previous studies of postglacial recolonization, we found no evidence for the “southern richness, northern purity” paradigm. We also find evidence for ongoing gene flow between populations in adjacent Eurasian countries, suggesting that long‐distance dispersal plays an important part in shaping winter moth genetic diversity. In addition, we find that this gene flow is predominantly in a west‐to‐east direction, suggesting that recently debated reports of cyclical outbreaks of winter moth spreading from east to west across Europe are not the result of dispersal.