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Zhuo Y, Wang M, Liu Z, Xu W, Abdulnazar A, Rajabi AM, Davletbakov A, Haider J, Khan MZ, Loik N, Faryabi SP, Michel S, Ostrowski S, Moheb Z, Ruckstuhl K, da Silva AA, Alves J, Yang W. Border fences reduce potential for transboundary migration of Marco Polo Sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in the Pamir Plateau. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169298. [PMID: 38128653 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169298] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Revised: 12/09/2023] [Accepted: 12/09/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
Border fences have severely impeded the transboundary migration of a number of large mammals worldwide, with central Asia being one of the most impacted. The Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii), an iconic species of Pamir, is threatened in its transboundary movement by increasing border fencing among their five distributed countries, including Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. In this study, by building ensemble species distribution models, we found that eastern Tajikistan had the largest suitable Macro Polo sheep habitat (about 42 % of the total suitable habitat), followed by China (about 32 %). We used least-cost paths to identify 51 ecological corridors including 5 transboundary ecological corridors, which may be important to maintain connectivity in both domestic and transboundary regions. To assess the potential barrier effect of border fences, we assessed four scenarios (30, 40, 50 and 60°) corresponding to the upper limit of the slope for the construction of fences. In areas too steep for fencing, these could be used by wild sheep to cross barriers or borders and may represent migration or movement routes, defined as natural passages. In the most pessimistic Scenario 60, only 25 migratory passages along the border fences were identified, compared to 997 in the most optimistic scenario (Scenario 30), indicating a strong negative effect of intensive border fencing on the transboundary movement of Marco Polo sheep. The establishment of transnational conservation parks, and ensuring permeability is maintained in key areas, could have a positive impact on the connectivity and persistence of Marco Polo sheep populations, and provide important lessons for other large migratory mammals in transboundary regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yingying Zhuo
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Tajikistan Joint Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Biological Resources, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation and Application in Arid lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Mori Wildlife Monitoring and Experimentation Station, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mori 831900, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Muyang Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Tajikistan Joint Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Biological Resources, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation and Application in Arid lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Mori Wildlife Monitoring and Experimentation Station, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mori 831900, China.
| | - Zhongjun Liu
- Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, Urumqi 830011, China
| | - Wenxuan Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Tajikistan Joint Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Biological Resources, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation and Application in Arid lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Mori Wildlife Monitoring and Experimentation Station, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mori 831900, China
| | - Abdulnazarov Abdulnazar
- Pamir Biological Institute, the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Khujand, Tajikistan
| | | | - Askar Davletbakov
- Institute for Biology and Soil Sciences, National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
| | - Jibran Haider
- Gilgit-Baltistan Forest and Wildlife Management Department, Forest Complex, Jutial, Gilgit, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Zafar Khan
- Department of Forestry, Range & Wildlife Management, Karakoram International University, Gilgit, Pakistan
| | - Nabiev Loik
- Institute of Zoology and Parasitology, the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
| | | | | | | | - Zalmai Moheb
- Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), Afghanistan
| | - Kathreen Ruckstuhl
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive Northwest, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
| | - António Alves da Silva
- Centre for Functional Ecology (CFE), TERRA Associate Laboratory, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, 3000-456 Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Joana Alves
- Centre for Functional Ecology (CFE), TERRA Associate Laboratory, Department of Life Sciences, University of Coimbra, 3000-456 Coimbra, Portugal
| | - Weikang Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China; Sino-Tajikistan Joint Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Biological Resources, Urumqi 830011, China; Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Biodiversity Conservation and Application in Arid lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Mori Wildlife Monitoring and Experimentation Station, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Mori 831900, China.
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Ashrafzadeh MR, Khosravi R, Mohammadi A, Naghipour AA, Khoshnamvand H, Haidarian M, Penteriani V. Modeling climate change impacts on the distribution of an endangered brown bear population in its critical habitat in Iran. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 837:155753. [PMID: 35526639 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2021] [Revised: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the major challenges to the current conservation of biodiversity. Here, by using the brown bear, Ursus arctos, in the southernmost limit of its global distribution as a model species, we assessed the impact of climate change on the species distribution in western Iran. The mountainous forests of Iran are inhabited by small and isolated populations of brown bears that are prone to extinction in the near future. We modeled the potential impact of climate change on brown bear distribution and habitat connectivity by the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of two general circulation models (GCMs): BCC-CSM1-1 and MRI-CGCM3. Our projections revealed that the current species' range, which encompasses 6749.8 km2 (40.8%) of the landscape, will decline by 10% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 45% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1). About 1850 km2 (27.4%) of the current range is covered by a network of conservation (CAs) and no-hunting (NHAs) areas which are predicted to decline by 0.64% (2050: RCP2.6, MRI-CGCM3) to 15.56% (2070: RCP8.5, BCC-CSM1-1) due to climate change. The loss of suitable habitats falling within the network of CAs and NHAs is a conservation challenge for brown bears because it may lead to bears moving outside the CAs and NHAs and result in subsequent increases in the levels of bear-human conflict. Thus, re-evaluation of the network of CAs and NHAs, establishing more protected areas in suitable landscapes, and conserving vital linkages between habitat patches under future climate change scenarios are crucial strategies to conserve and manage endangered populations of the brown bear.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammad Reza Ashrafzadeh
- Department of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, 8818634141 Shahrekord, Iran.
| | - Rasoul Khosravi
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Agriculture, Shiraz University, 71441-13131 Shiraz, Iran
| | - Alireza Mohammadi
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Jiroft, Jiroft, Iran
| | - Ali Asghar Naghipour
- Department of Nature Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, 8818634141 Shahrekord, Iran
| | - Hadi Khoshnamvand
- Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maryam Haidarian
- Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
| | - Vincenzo Penteriani
- Biodiversity Research Institute (IMIB, CSIC/University of Oviedo/Principality of Asturias), Campus Mieres, Mieres, Spain
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