Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios

Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025-2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.

Slight variations in coastal topography mitigate the consequence of storm-induced marine submersion on amphibian communities

The rise in sea-level and the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (i.e., storms and associated surges) are expected to strongly impact coastal areas. The gradual impacts of sea-level rise may allow species to display adaptive responses to overcome environmental changes. In contrast, the abruptness of marine submersions during extreme weather events can induce changes that may exceed the ability of species to respond to brutally changing environments. Yet, site-specific topographical features may buffer the expected detrimental effects of marine submersions on wildlife. In order to test such topographical effects, we examined the long-term consequences of a major marine submersion (storm Xynthia) on the amphibian communities of two French Atlantic coastal wetlands that slightly differ in their topography and, thus, their susceptibility to marine submersion. Amphibians were monitored on 64 ponds for up to 13 years, using acoustic and visual methods, in conjunction with environmental parameters (e.g., pond topology, vegetation, salinity). We found that the amphibian communities at the two neighboring sites displayed different responses to the marine submersion linked to storm Xynthia. As predicted, slight differences in local topography induced strong differences in local magnitude of the landward marine surge, influencing salinization dynamics and associated consequences on wildlife (amphibians). The different species responses show that amphibian richness can recover to that of pre-storm conditions, but with significant changes in the composition of the community. Our results suggest that amphibian presence post-submersion in coastal wetlands results from an interaction between species traits (e.g., tolerance to elevated salinity), site-specific topography, and environmental parameters. Finally, our study emphasizes that relatively modest landscaping management may be critical to allow wildlife to successfully recover after a marine submersion.

Prioritization of Vulnerable Species Under Scenarios of Anthropogenic-Driven Change in Georgia's Coastal Plain

Effective management of wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of the long-term vulnerability of species to anthropogenic stressors. Exposure to potential habitat change is one measure of vulnerability that wildlife managers often use to assess and prioritize individual species or groups of species for resource allocation or direct management actions. We used species distribution models for 15 species occurring in the coastal plain ecoregion of Georgia to estimate the current amount and distribution of potential habitat and then predict exposure to changes in habitat due to inundation from sea level rise (using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes model) and urban growth (using the Slope Land-use Excluded Urban Topology Hillshade Growth model) for four future time points. Our results predict that all focal species were likely to experience some exposure to habitat change from either sea level rise or urbanization, but few species will experience high exposure to change from both stressors. Species that use salt marsh or beach habitats had the highest predicted exposure from sea level rise (25–69%), while species that use more inland habitats had the highest predicted exposure to urban growth (10–20%). Our models are a resource for managers considering tradeoffs between prioritization schemes under two future stressors. Results suggest that managers may need to prioritize species (or their habitats) based on the predicted magnitude of habitat loss, while also contextualizing prioritization with respect to the current amount of available protected habitat and species global vulnerability.

Movements of marine and estuarine turtles during Hurricane Michael

Natural disturbances are an important driver of population dynamics. Because it is difficult to observe wildlife during these events, our understanding of the strategies that species use to survive these disturbances is limited. On October 10, 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall on Florida’s northwest coast. Using satellite and acoustic telemetry, we documented movements of 6 individual turtles: one loggerhead sea turtle, one Kemp’s ridley sea turtle, three green sea turtles and one diamondback terrapin, in a coastal bay located less than 30 km from hurricane landfall. Post-storm survival was confirmed for all but the Kemp’s ridley; the final condition of that individual remains unknown. No obvious movements were observed for the remaining turtles however the loggerhead used a larger home range in the week after the storm. This study highlights the resiliency of turtles in response to extreme weather conditions. However, long-term impacts to these species from habitat changes post-hurricane are unknown.