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Letessier TB, Mannocci L, Goodwin B, Embling C, de Vos A, Anderson RC, Ingram SN, Rogan A, Turvey ST. Contrasting ecological information content in whaling archives with modern cetacean surveys for conservation planning and identification of historical distribution changes. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14043. [PMID: 36756799 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2022] [Revised: 10/02/2022] [Accepted: 11/21/2022] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Many species are restricted to a marginal or suboptimal fraction of their historical range due to anthropogenic impacts, making it hard to interpret their ecological preferences from modern-day data alone. However, inferring past ecological states is limited by the availability of robust data and biases in historical archives, posing a challenge for policy makers . To highlight how historical records can be used to understand the ecological requirements of threatened species and inform conservation, we investigated sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) distribution in the Western Indian Ocean. We assessed differences in information content and habitat suitability predictions based on whale occurrence data from Yankee whaling logs (1792-1912) and from modern cetacean surveys (1995-2020). We built maximum entropy habitat suitability models containing static (bathymetry-derived) variables to compare models comprising historical-only and modern-only data. Using both historical and modern habitat suitability predictions we assessed marine protected area (MPA) placement by contrasting suitability in- and outside MPAs. The historical model predicted high habitat suitability in shelf and coastal regions near continents and islands, whereas the modern model predicted a less coastal distribution with high habitat suitability more restricted to areas of steep topography. The proportion of high habitat suitability inside versus outside MPAs was higher when applying the historical predictions than the modern predictions, suggesting that different marine spatial planning optimums can be reached from either data sources. Moreover, differences in relative habitat suitability predictions between eras were consistent with the historical depletion of sperm whales from coastal regions, which were easily accessed and targeted by whalers, resulting in a modern distribution limited more to steep continental margins and remote oceanic ridges. The use of historical data can provide important new insights and, through cautious interpretation, inform conservation planning and policy, for example, by identifying refugee species and regions of anticipated population recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tom B Letessier
- FRB-CESAB, Montpellier, France
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Laura Mannocci
- FRB-CESAB, Montpellier, France
- MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Brittney Goodwin
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
- Royal Veterinary College, London, UK
| | - Clare Embling
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
| | - Asha de Vos
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
- Oceanswell, Colombo, Sri Lanka
| | | | - Simon N Ingram
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
| | - Andy Rogan
- Ocean Alliance, Gloucester, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Samuel T Turvey
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
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Turvey ST, Duncan C, Upham NS, Harrison X, Dávalos LM. Where the wild things were: intrinsic and extrinsic extinction predictors in the world's most depleted mammal fauna. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20202905. [PMID: 33715429 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.2905] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Preventing extinctions requires understanding macroecological patterns of vulnerability or persistence. However, correlates of risk can be nonlinear, within-species risk varies geographically, and current-day threats cannot reveal drivers of past losses. We investigated factors that regulated survival or extinction in Caribbean mammals, which have experienced the globally highest level of human-caused postglacial mammalian extinctions, and included all extinct and extant Holocene island populations of non-volant species (219 survivals or extinctions across 118 islands). Extinction selectivity shows a statistically detectable and complex body mass effect, with survival probability decreasing for both mass extremes, indicating that intermediate-sized species have been more resilient. A strong interaction between mass and age of first human arrival provides quantitative evidence of larger mammals going extinct on the earliest islands colonized, revealing an extinction filter caused by past human activities. Survival probability increases on islands with lower mean elevation (mostly small cays acting as offshore refugia) and decreases with more frequent hurricanes, highlighting the risk of extreme weather events and rising sea levels to surviving species on low-lying cays. These findings demonstrate the interplay between intrinsic biology, regional ecology and specific local threats, providing insights for understanding drivers of biodiversity loss across island systems and fragmented habitats worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samuel T Turvey
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
| | - Clare Duncan
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
| | - Nathan S Upham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.,Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA.,School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA
| | - Xavier Harrison
- Biosciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Streatham Campus, Exeter EX4 4QD, UK
| | - Liliana M Dávalos
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, New York 11794, USA.,Consortium for Inter-Disciplinary Environmental Research, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA
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