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Sévêque A, Lonsinger RC, Waits LP, Brzeski KE, Komoroske LM, Ott-Conn CN, Mayhew SL, Norton DC, Petroelje TR, Swenson JD, Morin DJ. Sources of bias in applying close-kin mark-recapture to terrestrial game species with different life histories. Ecology 2024; 105:e4244. [PMID: 38272487 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Revised: 10/18/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a method analogous to traditional mark-recapture but without requiring recapture of individuals. Instead, multilocus genotypes (genetic marks) are used to identify related individuals in one or more sampling occasions, which enables the opportunistic use of samples from harvested wildlife. To apply the method accurately, it is important to build appropriate CKMR models that do not violate assumptions linked to the species' and population's biology and sampling methods. In this study, we evaluated the implications of fitting overly simplistic CKMR models to populations with complex reproductive success dynamics or selective sampling. We used forward-in-time, individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of CKMR abundance and survival estimates in species with different longevities, mating systems, and sampling strategies. Simulated populations approximated a range of life histories among game species of North America with lethal sampling to evaluate the potential of using harvested samples to estimate population size. Our simulations show that CKMR can yield nontrivial biases in both survival and abundance estimates, unless influential life history traits and selective sampling are explicitly accounted for in the modeling framework. The number of kin pairs observed in the sample, in combination with the type of kinship used in the model (parent-offspring pairs and/or half-sibling pairs), can affect the precision and/or accuracy of the estimates. CKMR is a promising method that will likely see an increasing number of applications in the field as costs of genetic analysis continue to decline. Our work highlights the importance of applying population-specific CKMR models that consider relevant demographic parameters, individual covariates, and the protocol through which individuals were sampled.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony Sévêque
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi, USA
| | - Robert C Lonsinger
- U.S. Geological Survey, Oklahoma Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
| | - Lisette P Waits
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA
| | - Kristin E Brzeski
- College of Forest Resources and Environment Science, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, USA
| | - Lisa M Komoroske
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Caitlin N Ott-Conn
- Wildlife Division, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Marquette, Michigan, USA
| | - Sarah L Mayhew
- Wildlife Division, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - D Cody Norton
- Wildlife Division, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Marquette, Michigan, USA
| | - Tyler R Petroelje
- Wildlife Division, Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Marquette, Michigan, USA
| | - John D Swenson
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Dana J Morin
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi, USA
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Akita T. Estimating contemporary migration numbers of adults based on kinship relationships in iteroparous species. Mol Ecol Resour 2022; 22:3006-3017. [PMID: 35789097 DOI: 10.1111/1755-0998.13682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Revised: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
This paper describes the development of estimators for the contemporary migration number and rate of adults between two populations in iteroparous species. The proposed estimators are based on known half-sibling (HS) and/or parent-offspring (PO) relationships observed between populations across breeding seasons. The rationale is that HS and PO pairs exhibit information about the occurrence frequency of parental movements during the breeding interval. The proposed method allows for variance in the average number of offspring per parent within and between populations. In addition, coupled with the PO pairs found within the population, the estimators can be obtained using only genetic data. Generally, a sample size representing the square root of the population size is required to obtain meaningful migration information. We describe a detailed evaluation of the performance of the proposed estimators by running an individual-based model, and the results provide guidance regarding sample sizes to ensure the required accuracy and precision. In addition, given that there are few effective methods to estimate adult movement (especially when populations cannot be genetically distinct), we discuss the usefulness of the proposed kinship assignment method in terms of conservation biology and wildlife management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tetsuya Akita
- Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Kanagawa, Japan
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