Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming

The seasonal variability of future evapotranspiration over China during the 21st century

The evapotranspiration (ET) plays a crucial role in shaping regional climate patterns and serves as a vital indicator of ecosystem function. However, there remains a limited understanding of the seasonal variability of future ET over China and its correlation with environmental drivers. This study evaluated the skills of 27 models from the Six Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in modeling ET and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method was employed to merge monthly simulated ET based on the top five best-performing models. The seasonal changes in ET under three climate scenarios from 2030 to 2099 were analyzed based on the BMA-merged ET, which was well validated with observed ET collected from fourteen flux sites across China. Significant increasing ET over China are projected under all seasons during 2030-2099, with 0.05-0.13 mm yr-1, 0.11-0.23 mm yr-1, and 0.20-0.41 mm yr-1 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Relative to the historical period (1980-2014), the relative increase in ET over China is highest in winter and lowest in summer. Seasonal ET increases significantly in all seven climate sub-regions under high forcing scenario. Higher ET increase is generally found in southeastern humid regions, while lowest ET increase occurs in northwest China. At the country level, the primary factor driving ET increase during spring, summer, and autumn seasons is the increasing net radiation and warming. In contrast, ET increase during winter is influenced not only by energy factors but also by vegetation-related factors. Future seasonal ET increase is predominantly driven by increasing energy factors in the southeastern humid region and Tibetan Plateau, while seasonal ET changes in the northwest region prevailingly depend on soil moisture. Results indicate that China will experience a "wet season will get wetter, and dry season will become drier" in the 21st century with high radiation forcing scenario.

Functional Anatomy of the Thoracic Limb of the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis)

Since the Komodo dragon has been included on The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, it is crucial to know in detail its biology as there is a limited availability of research material on these animals-mainly those who died in zoos or whose remains were found in the wild. Anatomy is essential for understanding physiology, identification of diseases, adaptations in the environment, and behavior. In this dissection study, the relationship of individual anatomical structures was analyzed, the anatomy of the active and passive movement system of the thoracic limb was described, photographs were taken, and a radiographic examination was conducted. This species has its own differences, even within closely related lizard species. Varanus komodoensis possesses triceps muscles with three heads, and the wrist is extended with additional bones for greater flexibility of the hand. The muscles of the forelimb are analogous to the hind limb; however, they differ in the mass of individual muscles, especially those predisposed to perform the most important antigravity and locomotive functions.

Lost to the Sea: Predicted Climate Change Threats to Saltwater Crocodile Nesting Habitat

Climate change is predicted to have devastating impacts on apex predators such as eliminating their required habitats. Crocodilians are no exception as most species require freshwater for nesting, and such freshwater habitats are particularly vulnerable to saltwater inundation (SWI) caused by the sea level rise (SLR) from global warming. Here, we examined the impacts of climate change on saltwater crocodiles Crocodylus porosus in terms of the potential loss of nesting habitat in the Northern Territory, Australia; an area that contains the world’s most extensive nesting habitat for the species. Our spatial model, derived from 730 nest locations and selected environmental features, estimated a total of 32,306.91 km2 of current suitable habitat across the study region. The most important variable was distance to perennial lakes (71.0% contribution, 87.5% permutation importance), which is negatively correlated with nesting habitat suitability. We found that projected changes in temperature and rainfall by 2100 could impact the area of suitable nesting habitat negatively or positively (0.33% decrease under low future emission climate scenario, and 32.30% increase under high emission scenario). Nevertheless, this can be canceled by the strong negative impact of SLR and concomitant SWI on nesting areas. A portion (16.40%) of the modeled suitable habitat for a subsection of our study area, the Kakadu Region, were already subject to > 0.25 m SWI in 2013. The suitable area for nesting in this region is predicted to be further reduced to 1775.70 km2 with 1.1 m SLR predicted for 2100, representing 49.81% loss between 2013 and 2100. Although the estimates of habitat loss do not account for the potential creation of new habitat, nor for the uncertainty in the degree of future SLR, our results suggest that SLR driven by continuing global warming can be the major threat to mound-nest-building crocodilians including C. porosus, rather than direct impacts from changes in temperature and rainfall. The degree of impact on saltwater crocodiles will be determined by the interplay between the loss of nesting habitat, which would appear inevitable under current global warming, and the ability to expand into new areas created by the expansion of the tropics.

Turning ghosts into dragons: improving camera monitoring outcomes for a cryptic low-density Komodo dragon population in eastern Indonesia

Abstract Context Detection probability is a key attribute influencing population-level wildlife estimates necessary for conservation inference. Increasingly, camera traps are used to monitor threatened reptile populations and communities. Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) populations have been previously monitored using camera traps; however, considerations for improving detection probability estimates for very low-density populations have not been well investigated. Aims Here we compare the effects of baited versus non-baited camera monitoring protocols to influence Komodo dragon detection and occupancy estimates alongside monitoring survey design and cost considerations for ongoing population monitoring within the Wae Wuul Nature Reserve on Flores Island, Indonesia. Methods Twenty-six camera monitoring stations (CMS) were deployed throughout the study area with a minimum of 400 m among CMS to achieve independent sampling units. Each CMS was randomly assigned as a baited or non-baited camera monitoring station and deployed for 6 or 30 daily sampling events. Key results Baited camera monitoring produced higher site occupancy estimates with reduced variance. Komodo dragon detection probability estimates were 0.15 ± 0.092–0.22 (95% CI), 0.01 ± 0.001–0.03, and 0.03 ± 0.01–0.04 for baited (6 daily survey sampling events), unbaited (6 daily survey sampling events) and long-unbaited (30 daily survey sampling events) sampling durations respectively. Additionally, the provision of baited lures at cameras had additional benefits for Komodo detection, survey design and sampling effort costs. Conclusions Our study indicated that baited cameras provide the most effective monitoring method to survey low-density Komodo dragon populations in protected areas on Flores. Implications We believe our monitoring approach now lends itself to evaluating population responses to ecological and anthropogenic factors, hence informing conservation efforts in this nature reserve.

Population structure, genomic diversity and demographic history of Komodo dragons inferred from whole-genome sequencing

Population and conservation genetics studies have greatly benefited from the development of new techniques and bioinformatic tools associated with next-generation sequencing. Analysis of extensive data sets from whole-genome sequencing of even a few individuals allows the detection of patterns of fine-scale population structure and detailed reconstruction of demographic dynamics through time. In this study, we investigated the population structure, genomic diversity and demographic history of the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis), the world's largest lizard, by sequencing the whole genomes of 24 individuals from the five main Indonesian islands comprising the entire range of the species. Three main genomic groups were observed. The populations of the Island of Komodo and the northern coast of Flores, in particular, were identified as two distinct conservation units. Degrees of genomic divergence among island populations were interpreted as a result of changes in sea level affecting connectivity across islands. Demographic inference suggested that Komodo dragons probably experienced a relatively steep population decline over the last million years, reaching a relatively stable N_e during the Saalian glacial cycle (400-150 thousand years ago) followed by a rapid N_e decrease. Genomic diversity of Komodo dragons was similar to that found in endangered or already extinct reptile species. Overall, this study provides an example of how whole-genome analysis of a few individuals per population can help define population structure and intraspecific demographic dynamics. This is particularly important when applying population genomics data to conservation of rare or elusive endangered species.