The living heart: Climate gradients predict desert mountain endemism

Climate Change Habitat Model Forecasts for Eight Owl Species in the Southwestern US

The high-resolution forecasting of vegetation type shifts may prove essential in anticipating and mitigating the impacts of future climate change on bird populations. Here, we used the US Forest Service Ecological Response Unit (ERU) classification to develop and assess vegetation-based breeding habitat profiles for eight owl species occurring in the foothills and mountains of the Southwestern US. Shifts in mapped habitat were forecast using an ecosystem vulnerability model based on the pre-1990 climate envelopes of ERUs and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) A1B moderate-emission scenario for the future climate. For five of the eight owl species, the regional breeding habitat extent was projected to decline by at least 60% by 2090. Three species, the boreal owl (Aegolius funereus; at the trailing edge of its distribution), flammulated owl (Psiloscops flammeolus), and northern pygmy-owl (Glaucidium gnoma), were projected to experience the steepest habitat loss rates of 85%, 85%, and 76%, respectively. Projected vegetation shifts overlaid with well-documented flammulated owl breeding populations showed the complete or near complete loss of habitat by 2090 in areas of montane forest currently supporting dense aggregations of owl territories. Generalist or lower-elevation owl species were predicted to be less impacted, while, for the whiskered screech-owl (Megascops trichopsis), the contraction of the current habitat was nearly offset by a projected northward expansion. In general, the results of this study suggest high exposure to climate change impacts for the upper-elevation forest owls of semi-arid Southwestern North America. Long-distance migration and low natal philopatry may prove important to some montane owl populations in adapting to the regional loss of habitat.

Why we should be looking for longitudinal patterns in biodiversity

Our understanding of global diversity patterns relies overwhelmingly on ecological and evolutionary correlates of latitude, and largely ignores longitude. However, the two major explanations of biodiversity patterns – energy and stability – are confounded across latitudes, and longitude offers potential solutions. Recent literature shows that the global biogeography of the Cenozoic world is structured by longitudinal barriers. In a few well-studied regions, such as South Africa’s Cape, the Himalayas and the Amazon-Andes continuum, there are strong longitudinal gradients in biodiversity. Often, such gradients occur where high and low past climatic velocities are juxtaposed, and there is clear evidence of higher biodiversity at the climatically-stable end. Understanding longitudinal biodiversity variations more widely can offer new insights towards biodiversity conservation in the face of anthropogenic climatic change.

Challenges and solutions to biodiversity conservation in arid lands

The strategic goals of the United Nations and the Aichi Targets for biodiversity conservation have not been met. Instead, biodiversity has continued to rapidly decrease, especially in developing countries. Setting a new global biodiversity framework requires clarifying future priorities and strategies to bridge challenges and provide representative solutions. Hyper-arid, arid, and semi-arid lands (herein, arid lands) form about one third of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Arid lands contain unique biological and cultural diversity, and biodiversity loss in arid lands can have a disproportionate impact on these ecosystems due to low redundancy and a high risk of trophic cascades. They contain unique biological and cultural diversity and host many endemic species, including wild relatives of key crop plants. Yet extensive agriculture, unsustainable use, and global climate change are causing an irrecoverable damage to arid lands, with far-reaching consequences to the species, ground-water resources, ecosystem productivity, and ultimately the communities' dependant on these systems. However, adequate research and effective policies to protect arid land biodiversity and sustainability are lacking because a large proportion of arid areas are in developing countries, and the unique diversity in these systems is frequently overlooked. Developing new priorities for global arid lands and mechanisms to prevent unsustainable development must become part of public discourse and form the basis for conservation efforts. The current situation demands the combined efforts of researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and local communities to adopt a socio-ecological approach for achieving sustainable development (SDGs) in arid lands. Applying these initiatives globally is imperative to conserve arid lands biodiversity and the critical ecological services they provide for future generations. This perspective provides a framework for conserving biodiversity in arid lands for all stakeholders that will have a tangible impact on sustainable development, nature, and human well-being.

Plio–Pleistocene vicariance across arid Australia in the ‘Spiny Knob-tailed Geckos’ (

Across Australia’s monsoon tropics and vast arid zone isolated regions or ‘islands’ of upland or rocky habitat are home to disjunct populations of many taxa of plants and animals. Comparative analyses of lineages that occur across these habitat islands provide opportunities to understand when and how environmental change drove isolation and diversification across arid Australia. Here we present an analysis of mitochondrial genetic diversity across disjunct populations of geckos in the Nephrurus asper group. Dating analyses suggest that disjunct and genetically divergent populations spanning the northern half of Australia diverged through the Plio–Pleistocene. Based on the timing of divergence and current habitat associations we hypothesise that species in this lineage were isolated by the expansion of unsuitable arid-zone habitats from the late Pliocene onwards. Across most areas, these barriers appear to be sandy or stony deserts. However, in eastern Australia genetically divergent populations are separated by grassland on flat vertisol-dominated soils (‘blacksoils’), suggesting that these habitats also expanded during the late Pliocene aridification. Finally, we show that western Queensland populations formerly referred to N. asper are genetically divergent and diagnosable on the basis of colour pattern and, herein, recognise these populations as a distinct species. https://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:9508CAAA-D014-452D-A3DA-325851615FA7

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high-elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders.