Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Low levels of Al stimulate the aboveground growth of Davidia involucrata saplings

Davidia involucrata is a woody perennial and the only living species in the Genus Davidia. It is native to southern China where it holds cultural and scientific importance. However, D. involucrata is now an endangered species and its natural range includes low pH soils which are increasingly impacted by acid rain, nitrogen deposition and imbalanced nutrient cycling. The combination of these stresses also poses the additional risk of aluminum (Al) toxicity. Since the responses of D. involucrata to low pH and aluminum toxicity have not been investigated previously, a hydroponic experiment was conducted to examine the growth of one year old D. involucrata saplings after 50 d growth in a range of pH and Al conditions. Plant biomass, morphology, antioxidant enzyme activity, mineral concentrations and plant ecological strategy were compared at pH 5.8 and pH 4.0 without added Al (AlCl3) and in 0.1, 0.2 and 0.5 mM Al at pH 4.0. Our results showed that compared with pH 5.8, pH 4.0 (without added Al) not only inhibited root and shoot growth but also limited accumulation of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in leaves of D. involucrate. However, low Al concentrations (0.1 and 0.2 mM Al) at pH 4.0 partially restored the aboveground growth and leaf N concentrations, suggesting an alleviation of H+ toxicity by low Al concentrations. Compared with low Al concentrations, 0.5 mM Al treatment decreased plant growth and concentrations of N, P, and magnesium (Mg) in the leaves, which demonstrated the toxicity of high Al concentration. The results based on plant ecological strategy showed that D. involucrate decreased the competitiveness and favored its stress tolerance as pH changed from 5.8 to 4.0. Meanwhile, the competitiveness and stress tolerance of D. involucrata increased and decreased at low Al concentrations, respectively, and decreased and increased at high Al concentration, respectively. These trade-offs in ecological strategy were consistent with the responses of growth and antioxidant enzyme activity, reflecting a sensitive adaptation of D. involucrata to acid and Al stresses, which may aid in sustaining population dynamics. These findings are meaningful for understanding the population dynamics of D. involucrata in response to aluminum toxicity in acid soils.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on endangered conifer tree species by considering climate and soil dual suitability and interspecific competition

Climate change results in the habitat loss of many conifer tree species and jeopardizes species biodiversity and forest ecological functions. Delineating suitable habitats for tree species via climate niche model (CNM) is widely used to predict the impact of climate change and develop conservation and management strategies. However, the robustness of CNM is broadly debated as it usually does not consider soil and competition factors. Here we developed a new approach to combine soil variables with CNM and evaluate interspecific competition potential in the niche overlapping areas. We used an endangered conifer species - Chamaecyparis formosensis (red cypress) - as a case study to predict the impact of climate change. We developed a novel approach to integrate the climate niche model and soil niche model predictions and considered interspecific competition to predict the impacts of climate change on tree species. Our results show that the suitable habitat for red cypress would decrease significantly in the future with an additional threat from the competition of an oak tree species. Our approach and results may represent significant implications in making conservation strategies and evaluating the impacts of climate change, and providing the direction of the refinement of the ecological niche model.

Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to global environmental change (i.e., climate and land use change) is essential to efficiently inform conservation and management strategies for authorities and managers. Here, we assessed the combined effect of future climate and land use change on the potential range shifts of the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in Sichuan Province, China. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast range shifts of the giant pandas by the 2050s and 2070s under four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We also compared the differences in distributional changes of giant pandas among the five mountains in the study area. Our SDMs exhibited good model performance and were not overfitted, with a mean Boyce index of 0.960 ± 0.015 and a mean omission rate of 0.002 ± 0.003, and suggested that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature, the proportion of forest cover, and total annual precipitation are the most important factors in shaping the current distribution pattern of the giant pandas. Our projections of future species distribution also suggested a range expansion under an optimistic greenhouse gas emission, while suggesting a range contraction under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, we found that there is considerable variation in the projected range change patterns among the five mountains in the study area. Especially, the suitable habitat of the giant panda is predicted to increase under all scenarios in the Minshan mountains, while is predicted to decrease under all scenarios in Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains, indicating the vulnerability of the giant pandas at low latitudes. Our findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach that combines climate and land use change to predict the future species distribution and the need for a spatial explicit consideration of the projected range change patterns of target species for guiding conservation and management strategies.

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.

A Case Study of the Snow Leopard in Sanjiangyuan National Park Boundaries regarding Park Boundary Divergence

This paper uses remote sensing data from the Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP) to explore the divergence between the boundaries of national parks and the distribution of natural habitats. Results are used to argue that these discrepancies evolve along with the potential impact of global warming. Using the example of the habitat change of snow leopards and the conflicts between local people and snow leopards, we reflect on the consequences of this divergence. Results show that divergence between the political boundaries and natural habitats as well as the consequent influence on the living conditions of local people are strikingly visible, and the effects of global warming on such conflicts are apparent. The authors conclude that both notions of ‘political boundaries’ and ‘natural habitats’ are expected to come together as the SNP region is spatially configured, while ‘global warming’ seems to be relevant as an essential reference when delimiting the region in the future. Finally, the proposal for the establishment of cooperative conservation areas is presented, emphasizing the role of cooperative governance in/around national parks.

Temporal Dynamics of the Goose Habitat in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are the most important areas for geese to overwinter in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway, where about 180,000 geese fly to overwinter each year. Over the past 20 years, the region has experienced extensive and rapid land cover changes that may have exceeded the adaptability of geese, and have led to suitable goose habitat area loss, thereby, reducing the stability of the geese population. In order to identify the suitable goose habitat areas in this region, based on ensemble modeling and satellite tracking data, in this study, we simulated the spatial distribution changes in the suitable goose habitat areas over the past 20 years. The results showed that the suitable goose habitat areas had suffered varying degrees of loss, among which, the lesser white-fronted goose had the greatest suitable goose habitat area loss of over 50%. Moreover, we found that wetlands, lakes, and floodplains were the key components of suitable goose habitat areas, and the categories (land use) showed significant differences in different periods (p < 0.01). This may be one of the main reasons for the decrease in suitable goose habitat areas. The results of this study provide an important reference for the adaptive management and protection of geese in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.