Terrestrial or marine species distribution model: Why not both? A case study with seabirds

Increase of nesting habitat suitability for green turtles in a warming Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is reshaping global ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with major impacts on biodiversity. Therefore, understanding how organisms can withstand change is key to identify priority conservation objectives. Marine ectotherms are being extremely impacted because their biology and phenology are directly related to temperature. Among these species, sea turtles are particularly problematic because they roam over both marine and terrestrial habitats throughout their life cycles. Focusing on green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Mediterranean Sea, we investigated the future potential changes of nesting grounds through time, assuming that marine turtles would shift their nesting locations. We modeled the current distribution of nesting grounds including both terrestrial and marine variables, and we projected the potential nesting distribution across the Mediterranean basin under alternative future greenhouse gas emission scenario (2000-2100). Our models show an increase in nesting probability in the western Mediterranean Sea, irrespective of the climate scenario we consider. Contrary to what is found in most global change studies, the worse the climate change scenario, the more suitable areas for green turtles will potentially increase. The most important predictors were anthropogenic variables, which negatively affect nesting probability, and sea surface temperature, positively linked to nesting probability, up to a maximum of 24-25 °C. The importance of the western Mediterranean beaches as potential nesting areas for sea turtles in the near future clearly call for a proactive conservation and management effort, focusing on monitoring actions (to document the potential range expansion) and threat detection.

How do resource distribution and taxonomy affect the use of dual foraging in seabirds? A review

In many seabird species, parents feeding young switch between short and long foraging excursions in a strategy known as "dual foraging." To investigate whether habitat quality near breeding colonies drives the use of dual foraging, we conducted a review of the seabird literature, compiling the results of 102 studies which identified dual-foraging in 50 species across nine families from all six seabird orders. We estimated the mean distance from the colony of each species' short and long foraging trips and obtained remote-sensed data on chlorophyll-a concentrations within the radius of both short and long trips around each colony. We then assessed, for each seabird family, the relationship between the use of dual foraging strategies and the difference in the quality of foraging locations between short- and long-distance foraging trips. We found that the probability of dual foraging grew with increasing differences in the quality of foraging locations available during short- and long-distance trips. We also found that when controlling for differences in habitat quality, albatrosses and penguins were less likely to use dual foraging than Procellariidae, which in turn were less likely to use dual foraging than Sulids. This study helps clarify how environmental conditions and taxon-specific characteristics influence seabird foraging behavior.

Quantifying inter-annual variability on the space-use of parental Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) in pursuit of different prey types

Spatial planning for marine areas of multi-species conservation concern requires in-depth assessment of the distribution of predators and their prey. Northern Gannets Morus bassanus are generalist predators that predate several different forage fishes depending on their availability. In the western North Atlantic, gannets employ different dive tactics while in pursuit of different prey types, performing deep, prolonged U-shaped dives when foraging on capelin (Mallotus villosus), and rapid, shallow, V-shaped dives when foraging on larger pelagic fishes. Therefore, much can be inferred about the distribution and abundance of key forage fishes by assessing the foraging behaviour and space-use of gannets. In this study, we aimed to quantify space-use and to determine areas of suitable foraging habitat for gannets in pursuit of different prey types using habitat suitability models and kernel density utilization distributions. We deployed 25 GPS/Time-depth recorder devices on parental Northern Gannets at Cape St. Mary's, Newfoundland, Canada from 2019 to 2021. To assess the influence of environmental variables on gannets foraging for different prey types, we constructed three different habitat suitability models: a U-shaped dive model, and two V-shaped dive models (early and late chick-rearing). Suitable foraging habitat for capelin, deduced by the U-shaped dive model, was defined by coastal, shallow waters with flat relief and sea surface temperatures (SST) of 11-15° C. Suitable habitat for early V-shaped dives was defined by shallow and coastal waters with steep slope and SST of 12-15°C and ~18°C, likely reflecting the variability in environmental preferences of different prey species captured when performing V-shaped dives. Suitable habitat for late V-shaped dives was defined by shallow coastal waters (<100m depth), as well as waters deeper than 200 m, and by SST greater than 16°C. We show that space-use by gannets can vary both within and between years depending on environmental conditions and the prey they are searching for, with consequences for the extent of potential interaction with anthropogenic activities. Further, we suggest regions defined as suitable for U-shaped dives are likely to be critical habitat of multi-species conservation concern, as these regions are likely to represent consistent capelin spawning habitat.