Untapped potential of physiology, behaviour and immune markers to predict range dynamics and marginality

The paradox of spring: Thyroid and glucocorticoid responses to cold temperatures and food availability in free living Carneddau ponies

In seasonal environments, maintaining a constant body temperature poses challenges for endotherms. Cold winters at high latitudes, with limited food availability, create opposing demands on metabolism: upregulation preserves body temperature but depletes energy reserves. Examining endocrine profiles, such as thyroid hormone triiodothyronine (T3) and glucocorticoids (GCs), proxies for changes in metabolic rate and acute stressors, offer insights into physiological trade-offs. We evaluated how environmental conditions and gestation impact on faecal hormone metabolites (fT3Ms and fGCMs) from late winter to spring in a free-living population of Carneddau ponies. Faecal T3Ms were highest in late February and March, when temperatures were lowest. Then, fT3Ms concentrations decreased throughout April and were at the lowest in May before increasing towards the end of the study. The decline in fT3M levels in April and May was associated with warmer weather but poor food availability, diet diversity and diet composition. On the other hand, fGCM levels did not display a clear temporal pattern but were associated with reproductive status, where pregnant and lactating females had higher fGCM levels as compared to adult males and non-reproductive females. The temporal profile of fT3Ms levels highlights metabolic trade-offs in a changing environment. In contrast, the ephemeral but synchronous increase in fGCM concentrations across the population suggest a shared experience of acute stressors (i.e., weather, disturbance or social). This multi-biomarker approach can evaluate the role of acute stressors versus energy budgets in the context of interventions, reproduction, seasonality and environmental change, or across multiple scales from individuals to populations.

A grazer's niche edge is associated with increasing diet diversity and poor population performance

The core-periphery hypothesis predicts niche cores should be associated with greater survivorship, reproductive output and population performance rates than marginal habitats at niche edges. However, there is very little empirical evidence of whether niche centrality influences population trends in animals. Using the Cape mountain zebra (Equus zebra zebra) as a model system, we evaluated whether niche centrality is associated with population trends, resource availability and diet across a core-periphery gradient. Population growth rates and density progressively declined towards niche peripheries. Niche peripheries were resource-poor and Cape mountain zebra consumed more phylogenetically diverse diets dominated by non-grass families. In core habitats they consumed grass-rich diets and female reproductive success was higher. This combination of spatial niche modelling and functional ecology provides a novel evaluation of how bottom-up resource limitation can shape species distributions, population resilience and range change and can guide conservation management.