Anthropogenic mortality of large mammals and trends of conflict over two decades in Nepal

Identifying risk zones and landscape features that affect common leopard depredation

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a pressing issue worldwide but varies by species over time and place. One of the most prevalent forms of HWC in the mid-hills of Nepal is human-common-leopard conflict (HLC). Leopard attacks, especially in forested areas, can severely impact villagers and their livestock. Information on HLC in the Gorkha district was scarce, thus making it an ideal location to identify high-risk zones and landscape variables associated with such events. Registered cases were collected and reviewed from the Division Forest Office (DFO) during 2019-2021. Claims from DFO records were confirmed with herders and villagers via eight focus group discussions. To enhance modeling success, researchers identified a total of 163 leopard attack locations on livestock, ensuring a minimum distance of at least 100 meters between locations. Using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and considering 13 environmental variables, we mapped common leopard attack risk zones. True Skill Statistics (TSS) and area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) were used to evaluate and validate the Output. Furthermore, 10 replications, 1,000 maximum iterations, and 1000 background points were employed during modeling. The average AUC value for the model, which was 0.726 ± 0.021, revealed good accuracy. The model performed well, as indicated by a TSS value of 0.61 ± 0.03. Of the total research area (27.92 km2), about 74% was designated as a low-risk area, 19% as a medium-risk area, and 7% as a high-risk area. Of the 13 environmental variables, distance to water (25.2%) was the most significant predictor of risk, followed by distance to road (16.2%) and elevation (10.7%). According to response curves, the risk of common leopard is highest in the areas between 1.5 to 2 km distances from the water sources, followed by the closest distance from a road and an elevation of 700 to 800 m. Results suggest that managers and local governments should employ intervention strategies immediately to safeguard rural livelihoods in high-risk areas. Improvements include better design of livestock corrals, insurance, and total compensation of livestock losses. Settlements near roads and water sources should improve the design and construction of pens and cages to prevent livestock loss. More studies on the characteristics of victims are suggested to enhance understanding of common leopard attacks, in addition to landscape variables. Such information can be helpful in formulating the best management practices.

Human-Wildlife Conflict Mitigation Based on Damage, Distribution, and Activity: A Case Study of Wild Boar in Zhejiang, Eastern China

Human-wildlife conflicts are becoming increasingly common worldwide and are a challenge to biodiversity management. Compared with compensatory management, which often focuses on solving emergency conflicts, mitigation management allows decision-makers to better understand where the damage is distributed, how the species are distributed and when the species conduct their activity. Here, we integrated data collected from 90 districts/counties' damage surveys and 1271 camera traps to understand the damage status, abundance, density and activity rhythms of wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Zhejiang, Eastern China, from January 2019 to August 2023. We found that (1) wild boar-human conflicts were mainly distributed in the northwest and southwest mountainous regions of Zhejiang Province; (2) the total abundance of wild boar was 115,156 ± 24,072 individuals, indicating a growing trend over the past decade and a higher density in the western and southern regions; (3) wild boar exhibited different activity patterns across different damage regions, and the periods around 7:00, 11:00 and 16:00 represented activity peaks for wild boar in seriously damaged regions. The damage distribution, density, distribution and activity rhythms provide specific priority regions and activity intensity peaks for conflict mitigation. We believe that these findings based on the damage, distribution and activity could provide a scientific basis for mitigation management at the county level and enrich the framework of human-wildlife conflict mitigation.

Prey selection by leopards (Panthera pardus fusca) in the mid-hill region of Nepal

Information on prey selection and the diet of the leopard (Panthera pardus fusca) is essential for leopard conservation. We conducted an investigation into the prey species and the proportion of each species in the leopard's diet in a human-dominated mid-hill region of Nepal. The analysis of 96 leopard scats collected between August 2020 and March 2021 revealed that leopards consumed 15 prey species, including small- and medium-sized mammals and livestock. In addition to these prey species, we also found plastic materials, bird feathers, and some unidentified items in the leopard scats. Wild ungulates (such as barking deer, Muntiacus muntjak and wild boar, Sus scrofa) constituted only 10% of the biomass in the scats, while livestock contributed 27%, and other wild prey contributed 50%. Among all species, domestic goats had the highest relative biomass in the scats, followed by the jungle cat (Felis chaus), domestic dog (Canis familiaris), and large Indian civet (Viverra zibetha). Similarly, the Indian hare (Lepus nigricollis) had the highest proportion of relative individuals present in the scat samples, followed by the jungle cat and the large Indian civet. A lower proportion of biomass from wild ungulates in the leopard's diet and a higher dependency of the leopard on domestic prey and other wild prey indicate a shortage of medium-sized wild prey, such as barking deer and wild boar, in leopard habitats. Therefore, the conservation of wild prey species, especially medium-sized prey, is crucial for reducing the leopard's dependence on livestock and mitigating human-leopard conflicts in the future.

Factors affecting the occupancy of sloth bear and its detection probability in Parsa-Koshi Complex, Nepal

Understanding factors associated with coexistence of human and wildlife in human-dominated landscapes is crucial for effective species conservation. Among the wildlife species, the sloth bears Melursus ursinus are found both inside and outside the protected areas of Nepal, and with increasing cases of human and bear conflicts in both areas. This highlights the necessity for a comprehensive understanding of anthropogenic and ecological factors that affect the occurrence of sloth bear. The understanding of these factors is important for its coexistence and conservation in human-dominated areas through establishing management and conservation action plan. We studied the sloth bear's occupancy and their coexistence in human-dominated environments with other large predators in the Parsa-Koshi Complex of Nepal using camera traps from December 2022 to March 2023. We identified the occupancy and detection probability of the sloth bear as 0.12 and 0.31, respectively. Our analysis reveals a positive relationship between sloth bear occurrence and the presence of large predators (βpredators = 3.104 ± 0.968), such as tigers (Panthera tigris) and leopards (Panthera pardus), as well as the number of humans detected (βhuman = 1.428 ± 1.216) and canopy cover percentage (βcc = 1.002 ± 0.737). However, the number of livestock detected shows a negative interaction with the occurrence of sloth bears (βlivestock = -2.240 ± 1.467). There was insignificant interaction between sloth bear occupancy and distance to human settlements, roads, and water bodies. These findings underscore the complex dynamics between sloth bears, humans, large predators, and livestock in human-dominated landscapes. To ensure the long-term survival of sloth bear populations and promote species conservation, comprehensive conservation strategies that account for both ecological and socio-economic factors are essential.

Predicting suitable habitat of swamp deer (Rucervus duvaucelii) across the Western Terai Arc Landscape of Nepal

Over the last few years, intensifying human impact and the deterioration of natural habitats have severely restricted the global distribution of large herbivores. Rucervus duvaucelii, commonly recognized as the swamp deer, is a habitat-specialist endemic large herbivore of the Indian Subcontinent. It is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN and listed in CITES Appendix I due to a steep decline in its population, which is primarily due to anthropogenic causes. In Nepal, the last remaining population of this species is confined to limited pocket areas within the western Terai Arc Landscape. We explored potential habitat for swamp deer across this landscape using species distribution modelling through the MaxEnt algorithm by using 173 field-verified presence points alongside six anthropogenic, four topographic, and four vegetation-related variables. Our study found that out of the total study area (9207 km²), only 6% (590 km²) was suitable for swamp deer. Approximately 45% of suitable habitat was incorporated within protected areas, with Shuklaphanta National Park harboring the largest habitat patch. The suitability of habitat was discovered to be positively associated with low-elevation areas, areas near water sources, and areas far from settlements, implying the need to conserve water sources and minimize the extension of anthropogenic pressure for their long-term conservation. Additionally, we suggest the implications of a swamp deer-centric conservation strategy, with an emphasis on increasing connectivity through the corridors and landscape-level population connectivity through trans-boundary conservation initiatives between Nepal and India. Moreover, considering large herbivores' high vulnerability to extinction, similar researche incorporating anthropogenic factors is of the utmost importance to produce vital information on habitat suitability for conserving other regionally and globally endemic, habitat-specialized herbivores.

Impact of climate change on distribution of common leopard (Panthera pardus) and its implication on conservation and conflict in Nepal

Climate change is projected to create alterations in species distributions over the planet. The common leopard (Panthera pardus) serves an important ecological function as a member of the big carnivore guild, but little is known about how climate change may affect their distribution. In this study, we use MaxEnt to simulate the geographic distributions by illustrating potential present and future ranges of common leopard by utilizing presence records alongside important topographic and bioclimatic variables based on two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The goals of this study was to look into possible distribution ranges of common leopards due to climate change, as well as explore the implications for conservation and potential conflict with humans. At present, 4% of Nepal was found to be highly suitable for common leopards, 43% suitable, 19% marginally suitable, and 34% unsuitable. A large portion of the climatically suitable habitat was confined to non-protected areas, and the majority of the highly suitable habitat was encompassed by forest land, followed by agricultural areas. Elevation, mean temperature of driest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were the variables influencing habitat suitability for the common leopard. A significant increase in marginally suitable habitat was observed in the high mountain region, indicating a shift of habitat in upper elevation areas due to the effects of climate change. We recommend timely management of these potential habitats to expand the range of this vulnerable species. At the same time, a combination of expanding new habitats and poor management practices could escalate human-leopard conflict. Therefore, further study on the impact of climate change on the distribution of prey species and proper habitat management techniques should be prioritized to mitigate conflicts.

Spatio-temporal patterns of human-wildlife conflicts and effectiveness of mitigation in Shuklaphanta National Park, Nepal

Human-wildlife interactions occur where human and wildlife coexist and share common resources including food or shelter. Increasing wildlife populations within protected areas also can increase interactions with humans living adjacent to these areas, resulting in conflicts including human casualty, livestock depredation, crop damage, and property loss. We analyzed six years human-wildlife conflict data from 2016-2021 in the buffer zone of Shuklaphanta National Park and conducted questionnaire survey to investigate factors influencing human-wildlife conflicts. Nineteen people were attacked by wildlife, primarily wild boar (Sus scrofa). Ninety-two livestock were killed by leopard (Panthera pardus), and among these most were sheep or goats killed near ShNP during summer. Crops were most frequently damaged by Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), followed by wild boar. Greatest economic losses were from damage to rice, followed by sugarcane and wheat. Asian elephant was the only reported species to cause structural damage to property (e.g., homes). Majority of respondents (83%) considered that the mitigation techniques that are currently in practice are effective to reduce the conflicts. However, the effectiveness of the mitigation techniques are the species specific, we recommend use of more efficacious deterrents (e.g., electric fencing) for large herbivores and mesh wire fencing with partially buried in the ground. Effective collaboration among different tiers of government, non-governmental organizations, civil societies and affected communities are important to share the best practices and continue to apply innovative methods for impactful mitigation of human-wildlife conflicts in the region.