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Coop JD. Postfire futures in southwestern forests: Climate and landscape influences on trajectories of recovery and conversion. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2725. [PMID: 36054332 PMCID: PMC10078526 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2021] [Revised: 04/29/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Southwestern ponderosa pine forests are vulnerable to fire-driven conversion in a warming and drying climate, yet little is known about what kinds of ecological communities may replace them. To characterize postfire vegetation trajectories and their environmental determinants, plant assemblages (361 sample plots including 229 vascular plant species, surveyed in 2017) were sampled within eight burns that occurred between 2000 and 2003. I used nonmetric multidimensional scaling, k-means clustering, principal component analysis, and random forest models to assess relationships between vegetation pattern, topographic and landscape factors, and gridded climate data. I describe seven postfire community types, including regenerating forests of ponderosa pine, aspen, and mixed conifers, shrub-dominated communities of Gambel oak and mixed species, and herb-dominated communities of native bunchgrasses and mixtures of ruderal, native, and nonnative species. Forest recovery was generally associated with cooler, mesic sites in proximity to forested refugia; shifts toward scrub and grassland types were most common in warmer, dryer locations distant from forested refugia. Under future climate scenarios, models project decreases in postfire forest recovery and increases in nonforest vegetation. However, forest to nonforest conversion was partially offset under a scenario of reduced burn severity and increased retention of forested refugia, highlighting important management opportunities. Burning trends in the southwestern United States suggest that postfire vegetation will occupy a growing landscape fraction, compelling renewed management focus on these areas and paradigm shifts that accommodate ecological change. I illustrate how management decisions around resisting, accepting, or directing change could be informed by an understanding of processes and patterns of postfire community variation and likely future trajectories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan D. Coop
- Clark School of Environment and SustainabilityWestern Colorado UniversityGunnisonColoradoUSA
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2
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Furniss TJ, Hessburg PF, Povak NA, Salter RB, Wigmosta MS. Predicting future patterns, processes, and their interactions: Benchmark calibration and validation procedures for forest landscape models. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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3
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Michalak JL, Lawler JJ, Gross JE, Agne MC, Emmet RL, Hsu H, Griffey V. Climate‐change vulnerability assessments of natural resources in U.S. National Parks. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Julia L. Michalak
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Joshua J. Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - John E. Gross
- U.S. National Park Service Climate Change Response Program Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Michelle C. Agne
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | | | - Hsin‐Wu Hsu
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
| | - Vivian Griffey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
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Airey-Lauvaux C, Pierce AD, Skinner CN, Taylor AH. Changes in fire behavior caused by fire exclusion and fuel build-up vary with topography in California montane forests, USA. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 304:114255. [PMID: 34942550 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2021] [Revised: 12/02/2021] [Accepted: 12/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Wildfire sizes and proportions burned with high severity effects are increasing in seasonally dry forests, especially in the western USA. A critical need in efforts to restore or maintain these forest ecosystems is to determine where fuel build-up caused by fire exclusion reaches thresholds that compromise resilience to fire. Empirical studies identifying drivers of fire severity patterns in actual wildfires can be confounded by co-variation of vegetation and topography and the stochastic effects of weather and rarely consider long-term changes in fuel caused by fire exclusion. To overcome these limitations, we used a spatially explicit fire model (FlamMap) to compare potential fire behavior by topographic position in Lassen Volcanic National Park (LAVO), California, a large (43,000 ha), mountainous, unlogged landscape with extensive historical and contemporary fuels data. Fuel loads were uniformly distributed and incrementally increased across the landscape, meaning variation in fire behavior within each simulation was due to topography and among simulations, to fuels. We analyzed changes in fire line intensity (FLI) and crown fire potential as surface and canopy fuels increased from historical to contemporary levels and with percentile and actual wildfire weather conditions. Sensitivity to the influence of fuel build-up on fire behavior varied by topographic position. Steep slopes and ridges were most sensitive. At lower surface fuel loads, under pre-exclusion and contemporary canopy conditions, fire behavior was comparable and remained surface-type. As fuels increased, FLI and passive crown fire increased on steep slopes and ridgetops but remained largely unchanged on gentle slopes. Topographic variability in fire behavior was greatest with intermediate fuels. At higher surface fuel loads, under contemporary canopy fuels, passive crown fire dominated all topographic positions. With LAVO's current surface fuels, the area with potential for passive crown fire during actual fire weather increased from 6% pre-exclusion to 34% due to canopy fuel build-up. For topographically diverse landscapes, the results highlight where contemporary fire characteristics are most likely to deviate from historical patterns and may help managers prioritize locations for prescribed burning and managed wildfire to increase fire resilience in fuel rich landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine Airey-Lauvaux
- Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States.
| | - Andrew D Pierce
- Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States.
| | - Carl N Skinner
- Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Redding, CA, 96002, United States.
| | - Alan H Taylor
- Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, 16802, United States.
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Coop JD, Parks SA, Stevens-Rumann CS, Crausbay SD, Higuera PE, Hurteau MD, Tepley A, Whitman E, Assal T, Collins BM, Davis KT, Dobrowski S, Falk DA, Fornwalt PJ, Fulé PZ, Harvey BJ, Kane VR, Littlefield CE, Margolis EQ, North M, Parisien MA, Prichard S, Rodman KC. Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes. Bioscience 2020; 70:659-673. [PMID: 32821066 PMCID: PMC7429175 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biaa061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 104] [Impact Index Per Article: 26.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan D Coop
- School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University, Gunnison
| | - Sean A Parks
- Research ecologist with the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana
| | | | - Shelley D Crausbay
- Senior scientist with Conservation Science Partners, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Philip E Higuera
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana
| | | | - Alan Tepley
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Ellen Whitman
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Timothy Assal
- Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio
| | - Brandon M Collins
- Fire Research and Outreach, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, and with the Pacific Southwest Research Station, US Forest Service, in Davis, California
| | - Kimberley T Davis
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula
| | | | - Donald A Falk
- Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson
| | - Paula J Fornwalt
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Fort Collins, Colorado
| | - Peter Z Fulé
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Van R Kane
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Caitlin E Littlefield
- Caitlin Littlefield is a postdoctoral research associate, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington
| | - Ellis Q Margolis
- US Geological Survey, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station, Santa Fe
| | - Malcolm North
- US Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Mammoth Lakes, California
| | - Marc-André Parisien
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Susan Prichard
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Kyle C Rodman
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison
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Fekety PA, Crookston NL, Hudak AT, Filippelli SK, Vogeler JC, Falkowski MJ. Hundred year projected carbon loads and species compositions for four National Forests in the northwestern USA. CARBON BALANCE AND MANAGEMENT 2020; 15:5. [PMID: 32222913 PMCID: PMC7227189 DOI: 10.1186/s13021-020-00140-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2019] [Accepted: 03/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Forests are an important component of the global carbon balance, and climate sensitive growth and yield models are an essential tool when predicting future forest conditions. In this study, we used the dynamic climate capability of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) to simulate future (100 year) forest conditions on four National Forests in the northwestern USA: Payette National Forest (NF), Ochoco NF, Gifford Pinchot NF, and Siuslaw NF. Using Forest Inventory and Analysis field plots, aboveground carbon estimates and species compositions were simulated with Climate-FVS for the period between 2016 and 2116 under a no climate change scenario and a future climate scenario. We included a sensitivity analysis that varied calculated disturbance probabilities and the dClim rule, which is one method used by Climate-FVS to introduce climate-related mortality. The dClim rule initiates mortality when the predicted climate change at a site is greater than the change in climate associated with a predetermined shift in elevation. RESULTS Results of the simulations indicated the dClim rule influenced future carbon projections more than estimates of disturbance probability. Future aboveground carbon estimates increased and species composition remained stable under the no climate change scenario. The future climate scenario we tested resulted in less carbon at the end of the projections compared to the no climate change scenarios for all cases except when the dClim rule was disengaged on the Payette NF. Under the climate change scenario, species compositions shifted to climatically adapted species or early successional species. CONCLUSION This research highlights the need to consider climate projections in long-term planning or future forest conditions may be unexpected. Forest managers and planners could perform similar simulations and use the results as a planning tool when analyzing climate change effects at the National Forest level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick A Fekety
- Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA.
| | | | - Andrew T Hudak
- United States Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 1221 South Main Street, Moscow, ID, 83843, USA
| | - Steven K Filippelli
- Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA
| | - Jody C Vogeler
- Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1476, USA
| | - Michael J Falkowski
- Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1499, USA
- Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1476, USA
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McCauley LA, Robles MD, Woolley T, Marshall RM, Kretchun A, Gori DF. Large-scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest United States. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01979. [PMID: 31332869 PMCID: PMC6916600 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2019] [Revised: 04/26/2019] [Accepted: 06/24/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Higher tree density, more fuels, and a warmer, drier climate have caused an increase in the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests. There is an urgent need to restore forests across the western United States. To address this need, the U.S. Forest Service began the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) to restore four national forests in Arizona. The objective of this study was to evaluate how restoration of ~400,000 ha under the 4FRI program and projected climate change would influence carbon dynamics and wildfire severity from 2010 to 2099. Specifically, we estimated forest carbon fluxes, carbon pools and wildfire severity under a moderate and fast 4FRI implementation schedule and compared those to status quo and no-harvest scenarios using the LANDIS-II simulation model and climate change projections. We found that the fast-4FRI scenario showed early decreases in ecosystem carbon due to initial thinning/prescribed fire treatments, but total ecosystem carbon increased by 9-18% over no harvest by the end of the simulation. This increased carbon storage by 6.3-12.7 million metric tons, depending on the climate model, equating to removal of carbon emissions from 55,000 to 110,000 passenger vehicles per year until the end of the century. Nearly half of the additional carbon was stored in more stable soil pools. However, climate models with the largest predicted temperature increases showed declines by late century in ecosystem carbon despite restoration. Our study uses data from a real-world, large-scale restoration project and indicates that restoration is likely to stabilize carbon and the benefits are greater when the pace of restoration is faster.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa A. McCauley
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyTucsonArizona85719USA
| | - Marcos D. Robles
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyTucsonArizona85719USA
| | - Travis Woolley
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyFlagstaffArizona86001USA
| | - Robert M. Marshall
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyTucsonArizona85719USA
| | | | - David F. Gori
- School of Natural Resources and the EnvironmentUniversity of ArizonaTucsonArizona85721USA
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Yazzie JO, Fulé PZ, Kim YS, Sánchez Meador A. Diné kinship as a framework for conserving native tree species in climate change. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01944. [PMID: 31267598 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1944] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2018] [Revised: 02/12/2019] [Accepted: 03/12/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects all ecosystems but despite increasing recognition for the needs to integrate Indigenous knowledge with modern climate science, the epistemological differences between the two make it challenging. In this study, we present how Indigenous belief and knowledge system can frame the application of a modeling tool (Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator). We focus on managing forest ecosystem services of the Diné (Navajo) Nation as a case study. Most Diné tribal members depend directly on the land for their livelihoods and cultural traditions. The forest plays a vital role in Diné livelihoods through social, cultural, spiritual, subsistence, and economic factors. We simulated forest dynamics over time under alternative climate change scenarios and management strategies to identify forest management strategies that will maintain future ecosystem services. We initialized the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator model with data from permanent plots and site-specific growth models under multiple management systems (no-management, thinning, burning, and assisted migration planting) and different climate scenarios (no-climate-change, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0). Projections of climate change show average losses of basal area by over 65% by 2105, a shift in tree species composition to drier-adapted species, and a decrease in species diversity. While substantial forest loss was inevitable under the warming climate scenarios, the modeling framework allowed us to evaluate the management treatments, including planting, for conserving multiple tree species in mixed conifer forests, thus providing an anchor for biodiversity. We presented the modeling results and management implications and discuss how they can complement Diné kinship concepts. Our approach is a useful step for framing modern science with Indigenous Knowledge and for developing improved strategies to sustain natural resources and livelihoods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jaime O Yazzie
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 15018, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
| | - Peter Z Fulé
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 15018, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
| | - Yeon-Su Kim
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 15018, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
| | - Andrew Sánchez Meador
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 15018, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
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9
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Stockdale CA, Macdonald SE, Higgs E. Forest closure and encroachment at the grassland interface: a century‐scale analysis using oblique repeat photography. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher A. Stockdale
- Department of Renewable Resources Faculty of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - S. Ellen Macdonald
- Department of Renewable Resources Faculty of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Eric Higgs
- School of Environmental Studies University of Victoria Victoria British Columbia Canada
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Stockdale CA, McLoughlin N, Flannigan M, Macdonald SE. Could restoration of a landscape to a pre-European historical vegetation condition reduce burn probability? Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2584] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Christopher A. Stockdale
- Department of Renewable Resources; Faculty of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Alberta; General Services Building Edmonton Alberta T6G 2H5 Canada
| | - Neal McLoughlin
- Alberta Wildfire Coordination Centre; Wildfire Management Branch; Alberta Agriculture and Forestry; 9920 108 Street NW Edmonton Alberta T5K 2M4 Canada
| | - Mike Flannigan
- Department of Renewable Resources; Faculty of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Alberta; General Services Building Edmonton Alberta T6G 2H5 Canada
| | - S. Ellen Macdonald
- Department of Renewable Resources; Faculty of Agricultural, Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Alberta; General Services Building Edmonton Alberta T6G 2H5 Canada
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O'Donnell FC, Flatley WT, Springer AE, Fulé PZ. Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2018; 28:1459-1472. [PMID: 29939455 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/02/2018] [Accepted: 04/26/2018] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and wildfire are interacting to drive vegetation change and potentially reduce water quantity and quality in the southwestern United States, Forest restoration is a management approach that could mitigate some of these negative outcomes. However, little information exists on how restoration combined with climate change might influence hydrology across large forest landscapes that incorporate multiple vegetation types and complex fire regimes. We combined spatially explicit vegetation and fire modeling with statistical water and sediment yield models for a large forested landscape (335,000 ha) on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona, USA. Our objective was to assess the impacts of climate change and forest restoration on the future fire regime, forest vegetation, and watershed outputs. Our model results predict that the combination of climate change and high-severity fire will drive forest turnover, biomass declines, and compositional change in future forests. Restoration treatments may reduce the area burned in high-severity fires and reduce conversions from forested to non-forested conditions. Even though mid-elevation forests are the targets of restoration, the treatments are expected to delay the decline of high-elevation spruce-fir, aspen, and mixed conifer forests by reducing the occurrence of high-severity fires that may spread across ecoregions. We estimate that climate-induced vegetation changes will result in annual runoff declines of up to 10%, while restoration reduced or reversed this decline. The hydrologic model suggests that mid-elevation forests, which are the targets of restoration treatments, provide around 80% of runoff in this system and the conservation of mid- to high-elevation forests types provides the greatest benefit in terms of water conservation. We also predict that restoration treatments will conserve water quality by reducing patches of high-severity fire that are associated with high sediment yield. Restoration treatments are a management strategy that may reduce undesirable outcomes for multiple ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frances C O'Donnell
- Department of Civil Engineering, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, 36849, USA
| | - William T Flatley
- Department of Geography, University of Central Arkansas, Conway, Arkansas, 72035, USA
| | - Abraham E Springer
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
| | - Peter Z Fulé
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
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12
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Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States? FORESTS 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/f9040192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:4582-4590. [PMID: 28416662 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1617464114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 168] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland-urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.
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